Has a Business Case ever been published for Bedford-Cambridge?

[Grumpy]

Apologies if this is the wrong thread, but has a Business Case ever been published for Bedford-Cambridge?

 

[Nottingham59]

Apologies if this is the wrong thread, but has a Business Case ever been published for Bedford-Cambridge?

Sort of. The nearest I can get to find it is the 2023 National Audit Office report (April 2023) that states:

12 DfT has assessed that the benefit–cost ratio for the East West Rail project is poor and has fallen over time, but this assessment does not capture the wider strategic aims of the project. In 2021, DfT assessed that the benefit–cost ratio for the project was between 0.5 under a low-growth scenario, and 1.1 under a high‑growth scenario associated with housing growth ambitions for 1 million new homes in the region by 2050. This means that the scheme was forecast to result in benefits that are valued at between half and slightly more than the full amount it will cost. However, the benefits that the project is intended to achieve through changes in land use for new homes and businesses are not included in this assessment. Therefore, the total benefit resulting from the scheme could be greater than that which the benefit–cost ratio suggested. In May 2023, following revisions to their methodology and growth assumptions, and the publication of a preferred route, DfT and EWR Co assessed that the benefit–cost ratio had fallen. Even when including wider benefits associated with land use change, DfT and EWR Co assessed the benefit–cost ratio to be below 1. The benefit–cost ratio does not include strategic and indirect impacts that cannot be monetised, impacts which DfT and EWR Co considered in assessing the strategic need for the project (paragraphs 2.6 to 2.12; Figure 6).

https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/investigation-into-the-east-west-rail-project-summary.pdf

There's a study on the EWR website that has had to invent something called a "theory of change" to magic up enough benefits from the project to justify it, but I don't believe them. No-one has published any study that compares the benefits of EWR Bedford-Cambridge to the economic benefits of investing a similar amount of money in developing better rail transport links all around Cambridge and re-classifying Green Belt as development land.

 

[FMerrymon]

There's a study on the EWR website that has had to invent something called a "theory of change" to magic up enough benefits from the project to justify it, but I don't believe them. No-one has published any study that compares the benefits of EWR Bedford-Cambridge to the economic benefits of investing a similar amount of money in developing better rail transport links all around Cambridge and re-classifying Green Belt as development land.

A "business case" consists of 5 cases:

Strategic
Economic
Commercial
Financial
Management

BCR is in the economic case, but that's not the most important case, which is the strategic.

BCR is just a way of evaluating different options to achieve the strategic. It leaves a lot out, particularly if they require other policies to achieve the aim. BCRs are pretty much worthless to work out whether a large project goes ahead.

In the case of EWR, the strategic is the oxcam arc/growth corridor. Its reckoned to be worth around an additional £92bn gva per year once in full flow. EWR is not thenonly project, there are road upgrades and other infrastructure, but its the back bone of that east west connection thats crucial to realise that value. Given tax/VAT receipts on that gva, then it would take 3.5 months to pay off the investment of East West rail.

Imagine if we just used BCR to evaluate a project going ahead, didnt build this and substantially missed out on that potential.

Apologies if this is the wrong thread, but has a Business Case ever been published for Bedford-Cambridge?

Not sure when this is from, but explains a little about the business case development https://eastwestrail.co.uk/planning/our-business-case

 

[Grumpy]

A "business case" consists of 5 cases:

Strategic
Economic
Commercial
Financial
Management

BCR is in the economic case, but that's not the most important case, which is the strategic.

Thanks for posting this response. The link was to the Green book etc was informative.
I’m not sure the document claimed benefits (x% of local population,businesses, councils support it) is very convincing. As Mandy Rice Davies would have said “they would wouldn’t they “. Very Skipton-Colne-ish.

 

[FMerrymon]

Thanks for posting this response. The link was to the Green book etc was informative.
I’m not sure the document claimed benefits (x% of local population,businesses, councils support it) is very convincing. As Mandy Rice Davies would have said “they would wouldn’t they “. Very Skipton-Colne-ish.

Bit of marketing there, but ultimately the treasury are pro oxcam due to the potential returns and they will back the connectivity it needs. Its a really good example of why BCR is not the full story and is only a minor part of the decision.

 

[InTheEastMids]

A "business case" consists of 5 cases:

Strategic
Economic
Commercial
Financial
Management

BCR is in the economic case, but that's not the most important case, which is the strategic.

BCR is just a way of evaluating different options to achieve the strategic. It leaves a lot out, particularly if they require other policies to achieve the aim. BCRs are pretty much worthless to work out whether a large project goes ahead.

In the case of EWR, the strategic is the oxcam arc/growth corridor. Its reckoned to be worth around an additional £92bn gva per year once in full flow. EWR is not thenonly project, there are road upgrades and other infrastructure, but its the back bone of that east west connection thats crucial to realise that value. Given tax/VAT receipts on that gva, then it would take 3.5 months to pay off the investment of East West rail.

Imagine if we just used BCR to evaluate a project going ahead, didnt build this and substantially missed out on that potential.



Not sure when this is from, but explains a little about the business case development https://eastwestrail.co.uk/planning/our-business-case

All of this. And this "BCR Thinking" starts to dominate when there is weak strategic leadership. Because most people do not understand its limitations, they just see the number. and it becomes useful cover to cancel something to solve a short-term political issue, or to lobby for cancellation because you would rather not have anybody build anything near you.

Be careful of doing that though. BCR Thinking is part of the reason why it is more-or-less universally agreed that the UK has done a pretty poor job at transport infrastructure, why a lot of the investment that has been made has been focused on London, why, in turn that has left the UK as mostly a second world country that is propped up by wealth transfer from London, and why XC is so awful.

 

[FMerrymon]

All of this. And this "BCR Thinking" starts to dominate when there is weak strategic leadership. Because most people do not understand its limitations, they just see the number. and it becomes useful cover to cancel something to solve a short-term political issue, or to lobby for cancellation because you would rather not have anybody build anything near you.

Yes, and if you look at "network north" BCRs were manipulated as part of the evidence for HS2 getting Sunak'd, as well as missing the point of them.