Proposed new Channel Tunnel services discussion

[cle]

The problem with these intermediate stops in general, but particularly Ashford, is that every seat you sell from them is one less seat you can sell from London. So you have to make your Ebbsfleet-Paris price identical to your London-Paris price otherwise you'll just reduce your yields. It makes it very hard to stimulate demand using pricing.

It has to be the same fare. The only way it could work is some type of last minute thing - like theatre lotteries - to sell off unsold capacity. Or if there is some flighting - eg. an Amsterdam which is first stop Brussels, and then a stopper behind which does Kent / Calais / Lille... and is a little cheaper.

That was the problem with Ebbsfleet. Its users almost wholly arrived by car. It encouraged UK passengers to join the Eurostar by car instead of by train to St Pancras. That really was the only reason for Eurostar calling at Ebbsfleet. It is of no benefit to anyone who travels by train to join Eurostar. I can see the point of international trains calling at Ashford but not Ebbsfleet or Stratford.

Business travellers keep this afloat. And most arrive by car service of some type at 6am or so, for a same day meeting. Equally, those leaving in the evening services (eg Parisians returning) are probably also in a cab. People don't tend to rely on public transport at 5am for this, or for super early flights either. Those others are leisure travellers and yes, more likely to arrive by train/tube.

 

[TheWierdOne]

It has to be the same fare. The only way it could work is some type of last minute thing - like theatre lotteries - to sell off unsold capacity. Or if there is some flighting - eg. an Amsterdam which is first stop Brussels, and then a stopper behind which does Kent / Calais / Lille... and is a little cheaper.

Surely you would dispatch the stopper first so it can be overtaken on one of it's stops to fall in at the rear of the sequence of trains through the tunnel?

 

[HSTEd]

Surely you would dispatch the stopper first so it can be overtaken on one of it's stops to fall in at the rear of the sequence of trains through the tunnel?

That approach is significantly less resilient than putting the non stop trains through first, although in theory it could lead to somewhat higher capacity.

 

[TheWierdOne]

That approach is significantly less resilient than putting the non stop trains through first, although in theory it could lead to somewhat higher capacity.

Why would it be less resilient?

 

[HSTEd]

Why would it be less resilient?

The problem of having a non stop train starting from London behind one that is stopping at Ashford is that you end up with the situation where the stopper is decelerating comparatively close with the fast train running it down.
If the stopper is late it will definitely grab the fast train and the stopper will struggle to make up time because it is constrained by the headway limits before restarting.

Adding padding between the stopper and fast train to prevent this also pads the journey time, because the stopping train has to wait for the fast train to run through that padding.

The "stopper goes last" method allows all trains to run as fast as they naturally can, at the cost of somewhat reduced capacity.

Padding is then added between flights, but doesn't directly get added to journey times.

 

[NCT]

You keep trying to paint people as some kind of awkward squad "terrified of London". I don't dispute that we have no WCML paths and that a HS1-2 link is not on the cards. That the costs of providing a through service may exceed the benefits of doing so doesn't change the fact that there are benefits, and that - in a world where we had spare capacity - direct connections with the continent would provide an economic boost to places like Manchester.

By all means, argue the issues of capacity etc. But don't be so dismissive of the human beings involved.

Benefits are meaningless without being put into the context of the costs involved in meeting the benefits and unavoidable disbenefits.

This isn't sim-city - in the very specific contexts of this thread with real-world constraints well understood, 'in a world where we had spare capacity' is completely irrelevant.

Existing paths aren't going to be diverted. Capex isn't going to get funded. The only thing that can change is individual mindset. Those that insist on their specific preferences being humoured need to understand which side their bread is buttered.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Nov 2025 ==

Business travellers keep this afloat. And most arrive by car service of some type at 6am or so, for a same day meeting. Equally, those leaving in the evening services (eg Parisians returning) are probably also in a cab. People don't tend to rely on public transport at 5am for this, or for super early flights either. Those others are leisure travellers and yes, more likely to arrive by train/tube.

Anyone from that kind of 'more money than sense' demographic can just redirect their chauffeur / taxi to St Pancras. Road congestion and parking isn't a problem at 5am.

 

[TheWierdOne]

The problem of having a non stop train starting from London behind one that is stopping at Ashford is that you end up with the situation where the stopper is decelerating comparatively close with the fast train running it down.
If the stopper is late it will definitely grab the fast train and the stopper will struggle to make up time because it is constrained by the headway limits before restarting.

Adding padding between the stopper and fast train to prevent this also pads the journey time, because the stopping train has to wait for the fast train to run through that padding.

The "stopper goes last" method allows all trains to run as fast as they naturally can, at the cost of somewhat reduced capacity.

Padding is then added between flights, but doesn't directly get added to journey times.

I suppose if you put the stopper on the rear of a flight of trains, the long deccel/stop/accel times means that between Ashford and/or Ebbsfleet you could then put that stopper into the following flight through the Chunnel?

 

[cle]

Anyone from that kind of 'more money than sense' demographic can just redirect their chauffeur / taxi to St Pancras. Road congestion and parking isn't a problem at 5am.

There isn't another place to get this train today.. so there is not redirect to consider. Parking at St P is probably less appealing (congestion charge too) - I can't imagine many do that. I was really thinking taxis.

btw a Londoner (business traveller or not) getting an uber to the Eurostar is really not a very elite demographic, it's much more normal at 5am than getting a tube in the dark... and in many cases, the tube or train may not be an option for the 6:01am train. Same for airports too.

 

[NCT]

There isn't another place to get this train today.. so there is not redirect to consider. Parking at St P is probably less appealing (congestion charge too) - I can't imagine many do that. I was really thinking taxis.

You were talking about business travellers railheading to Ebbsfleet, and I was responding specifically to that.

btw a Londoner (business traveller or not) getting an uber to the Eurostar is really not a very elite demographic, it's much more normal at 5am than getting a tube in the dark... and in many cases, the tube or train may not be an option for the 6:01am train. Same for airports too.

In the vast majority of cases, for a such a Londoner, St Pancras would be a much shorter and cheaper taxi ride than Ebbsfleet.

 

[Birkonian]

I wonder how many leisure travellers on Eurostar are from the Midlands/north of England? Quite a decent percentage I'd guess. They only change trains in London because there is no other option available.

 

[Sorcerer]

I wonder how many leisure travellers on Eurostar are from the Midlands/north of England? Quite a decent percentage I'd guess. They only change trains in London because there is no other option available.

Given that the passengers from the north and the midlands will most likely be arriving at either Euston, King's Cross or St Pancras, they are fairly well connected with Eurostar anyway requiring a ten minute walk at most. For me when I used Eurostar I had came from the north I didn't mind changing, but I definitely wouldn't have said no to a direct link. That unfortunately won't be possible without station expansion that nobody has the will to press forward with.

 

[timatheronwood]

Given that the passengers from the north and the midlands will most likely be arriving at either Euston, King's Cross or St Pancras, they are fairly well connected with Eurostar anyway requiring a ten minute walk at most. For me when I used Eurostar I had came from the north I didn't mind changing, but I definitely wouldn't have said no to a direct link. That unfortunately won't be possible without station expansion that nobody has the will to press forward with.

I wonder if the data are available to show where people who are through ticketed on Eurostar come from. Coming from the Berks and Hants line, getting to St Pancras before 11am is a major challenge, unless you accept substantially enhanced prices for the UK travel element and difficult access to tubes/elizabeth line during the morning peak. Maybe HS2 from Old Oak Common to Euston will be a better alternative.

 

[TheWierdOne]

I wonder if the data are available to show where people who are through ticketed on Eurostar come from. Coming from the Berks and Hants line, getting to St Pancras before 11am is a major challenge, unless you accept substantially enhanced prices for the UK travel element and difficult access to tubes/elizabeth line during the morning peak. Maybe HS2 from Old Oak Common to Euston will be a better alternative.

The best proxy would be looking up the stats on the London Internationals CIV tickets. Unfortunately they don't seem to be recorded in the stats that the ORR releases

 

[Trainbike46]

Those numbers would be a big underestimate - Many people aren't aware of London International CIV tickets, and even people that are aware often don't buy them.

For example, for me, the main tickets I would consider are:
Birkenhead-London off-peak return (16-25 Railcard): £75.85
Birkenhead-London International CIV EURO HIGH SAVER single (16-25 Railcard): £53.20

So in effect I would pay more than £25 extra to get a London International CIV ticket, because there are no returns for that ticket type. I guess I could buy an advance, but I'm not a massive fan of those, and they're usually not well-priced on Avanti anyway.

And for my next eurostar journey, I am on a regular advance ticket from Edinburgh, as London International CIV tickets aren't available for purchase yet but regular advance tickets are (and I know I have to travel on one of two trains, so committing to an advance isn't an issue on this occassion).

 

[TheWierdOne]

Those numbers would be a big underestimate - Many people aren't aware of London International CIV tickets, and even people that are aware often don't buy them.

Oh absolutely, but it's the only way we have to gauge Eurostar passengers ultimate origin beyond using the overall ticket data to/from St Pancras and portioning out the stations based on Eurostar's estimated St Pancras passenger numbers.

 

[ShadowKnight]

And even on sites like Trainline you cannot search for journeys from the UK to EU except from London. Perhaps they have a record of people trying to make that search.

I think one or two of the European railways and ticket companies do enable this however (SNCF, DB and Rail Europe come to mind)

 

[TheWierdOne]

And even on sites like Trainline you cannot search for journeys from the UK to EU except from London. Perhaps they have a record of people trying to make that search.

I think one or two of the European railways and ticket companies do enable this however (SNCF, DB and Rail Europe come to mind)

Deutsche Bahn is the only ticketing site I know of that will even run the enquiry, let alone offer booking options.

 

[Birkonian]

Oh absolutely, but it's the only way we have to gauge Eurostar passengers ultimate origin beyond using the overall ticket data to/from St Pancras and portioning out the stations based on Eurostar's estimated St Pancras passenger numbers.

I don't buy a CIV ticket if staying in London the night before.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Nov 2025 ==

Those numbers would be a big underestimate - Many people aren't aware of London International CIV tickets, and even people that are aware often don't buy them.

For example, for me, the main tickets I would consider are:
Birkenhead-London off-peak return (16-25 Railcard): £75.85
Birkenhead-London International CIV EURO HIGH SAVER single (16-25 Railcard): £53.20

So in effect I would pay more than £25 extra to get a London International CIV ticket, because there are no returns for that ticket type. I guess I could buy an advance, but I'm not a massive fan of those, and they're usually not well-priced on Avanti anyway.

And for my next eurostar journey, I am on a regular advance ticket from Edinburgh, as London International CIV tickets aren't available for purchase yet but regular advance tickets are (and I know I have to travel on one of two trains, so committing to an advance isn't an issue on this occassion).

Avanti sell Advance tickets to/from London International CIV. Even if it doesn't come with a cast iron guarantee, it's a very good bargaining chip.
Bring bach Birkenhead Woodside to Paddington.

 

[TheWierdOne]

I don't buy a CIV ticket if staying in London the night before.


Avanti sell Advance tickets to/from London International CIV. Even if it doesn't come with a cast iron guarantee, it's a very good bargaining chip.

Well if you’re staying in London not buying a CIV is perfectly reasonable. Is the CIV not cast iron? From what I understand it’s governed by an international treaty and carriers (Eurostar outbound, UK TOCs inbound) have to honour the connection on the next available service.

 

[Sorcerer]

So the Green Signals podcast on YouTube did a special video on Virgin Trains being approved access to Temple Mills Depot with Jon Worth giving his take and also covers the losing bidders, an interview with Phil Wittingham (former managing director of Virgin/Avanti West Coast and leading the bid here), analysis of Virgin's plans, as well as potential plans to bring back Ebbsfleet and Ashford calling points.

The video is called Virgin Trains is BACK! And ready to take on Eurostar... for anyone who cannot access via the link above.

For what it's worth I think while Jon is knowledgeable and correct in saying the rolling stock order is more bespoke than simply being a complete off-the-shelf design, I think it is very likely that Alstom will be able to deliver their first single deck Avelia Stream based on the previous New Pendolino platform using technology previously incorporated on the AGV.

The older ETR 610s were already capable of running on 3kV DC, 15kV 16.7Hz AC, and 25kV 50Hz AC, so provisions for running into Germany and Switzerland would be less bespoke than having the stock compatible with the 1.5kV DC in the Netherlands. Has there ever actually been a train built to be able to run on all four voltages before or would this be another bespoke feature to the new fleet?

On that note what does everyone think the final train design will be? Do we think this new Avelia Stream actually end up being close to the design in the first CGI render or will it be closer to the existing ED250 in Poland or ETR 675 in Italy. It's going to be an interesting development because the consensus seems to be that this will be a first of it's kind design.

 

[AdamWW]

Well if you’re staying in London not buying a CIV is perfectly reasonable. Is the CIV not cast iron? From what I understand it’s governed by an international treaty and carriers (Eurostar outbound, UK TOCs inbound) have to honour the connection on the next available service.

This seems to be the consensus, which surprises me because in every other situation the view appears to be that rail companies don't consider they have any obligations under the CIV to passengers making a connection with separate tickets for the two legs.

(I'm also not sure what buying it to "London International CIV" actually indicates, given that UK rail tickets say they are subject to CIV in any case.)

In any case Eurostar make it clear on their web site that if you miss your booked train due to a delayed or cancelled train in the UK they will carry you on the next available service without requiring the ticket to be to London CIV.

But maybe with a CIV ticket you are in a position to argue for compensation and accommodation costs if required.

 

[popeter45]

The older ETR 610s were already capable of running on 3kV DC, 15kV 16.7Hz AC, and 25kV 50Hz AC, so provisions for running into Germany and Switzerland would be less bespoke than having the stock compatible with the 1.5kV DC in the Netherlands. Has there ever actually been a train built to be able to run on all four voltages before or would this be another bespoke feature to the new fleet?

1.5Kv is pretty much unique to the netherlands and Southen France, dont think areas ever served by a Pendolino so would be first yes but suspect wont be that hard to implement if 3Kv is already onboard

 

[MicroLithium]

Has there ever actually been a train built to be able to run on all four voltages before or would this be another bespoke feature to the new fleet?

The current Thalys PBKA stock covers those four voltages so Eurostar’s TGV-Ms will probably need to as well

 

[HSTEd]

The Avelia stream family includes more than just Pendolinos.

 

[Birkonian]

This seems to be the consensus, which surprises me because in every other situation the view appears to be that rail companies don't consider they have any obligations under the CIV to passengers making a connection with separate tickets for the two legs.

(I'm also not sure what buying it to "London International CIV" actually indicates, given that UK rail tickets say they are subject to CIV in any case.)

In any case Eurostar make it clear on their web site that if you miss your booked train due to a delayed or cancelled train in the UK they will carry you on the next available service without requiring the ticket to be to London CIV.

But maybe with a CIV ticket you are in a position to argue for compensation and accommodation costs if required.

It was on a previou thread that a poster suggested that Advance tickets to CIV weren't the same as other CIV tickets. Anyway, I feel more confident showing a ticket designated CIV if I need to argue my case. Touch wood I've not had the situation arise to date.

 

[Sorcerer]

The current Thalys PBKA stock covers those four voltages so Eurostar’s TGV-Ms will probably need to as well

Oh yes, of course, I forgot about them! So there is a precedent for all four voltages from Alstom then, that's good to know. The bespoke part is just bringing all the available technologies together into a single platform

The Avelia stream family includes more than just Pendolinos.

Indeed, but the general consensus seems to be that Virgin's stock will be derived largely from what was the New Pendolino platform while Eurostar's Horizon is an evolution of the TGV line. Jon Worth argues that they will arguably have more in common with the Siemens 374 in fact.

 

[skifans]

I wonder how many leisure travellers on Eurostar are from the Midlands/north of England? Quite a decent percentage I'd guess. They only change trains in London because there is no other option available.

No idea if anyone else does the same but I usually get a hotel before Eurostar. The ones near St Pancras are often too expensive so I usually have a tube journey. If I could get a hotel in Ashford/Ebbsfleet for significantly cheaper I would absolutely switch to them considering they are easily reachable by Southeastern Highspeed. And it would be nicer to be able to get up a little later.

 

[cle]

You were talking about business travellers railheading to Ebbsfleet, and I was responding specifically to that.



In the vast majority of cases, for a such a Londoner, St Pancras would be a much shorter and cheaper taxi ride than Ebbsfleet.

Because it doesn’t exist any more - is my real point.

But my point stands, that people catching very early (6am) flights and trains tend to get cabs, drive (if parking possible) or get lifts, vs take connecting trains - even if they are even running. Talking 4am travel here.

Gatwick might be an exception because of how established by rail it is.

 

[RT4038]

I wonder how many leisure travellers on Eurostar are from the Midlands/north of England? Quite a decent percentage I'd guess. They only change trains in London because there is no other option available.

A small number as a %, but not an insignificant number of passengers!

 

[TheWierdOne]

Eurostar mulls High Court bid to thwart Richard Branson

Lawyers consider if there are grounds for a judicial review against the decision to give Virgin Trains the green light to run cross-Channel rail services

www.thetimes.com

Eurostar is weighing legal action to block Sir Richard Branson from launching a rival cross-Channel passenger rail services.

With limited avenues to appeal against the regulator’s decision, Eurostar’s lawyers are considering whether there are grounds to launch a judicial review against the ORR determination in favour of Virgin, according to industry sources.


Eurostar — led by chief executive Gwendoline Cazenave — was this weekend tight-lipped over its next steps, with a spokeswoman saying that it was “reviewing the decision and considering our next steps to ensure we can continue to grow”.

There are still a number of hurdles that Virgin must clear, however. Bosses need to enter into a commercial agreement with Eurostar and secure financing. They must also have access to track and stations, and need to have safety approvals from the UK and EU authorities.

Industry sources warned that obtaining regulatory clearances from the French authorities may prove challenging given the state shareholding in Eurostar. These, coupled with a potential judicial review, could cause significant delays. Virgin has said it wants to have its cross-Channel services up and running by 2030.

Quelle Surprise. Hopefully the courts chuck any action by Eurostar or SNCF straight into the dustbin