ORR Decision letter summary:
Virgin have been granted access to Temple Mills (TMI), for the full degree of access that they asked for as this fit within the capacity judged to be available in the IPEX report earlier this year. This means that Evolyn, Gemini and Trenitalia have had their applications rejected, and Eurostar’s expansion plans cannot make use of the existing spare depot capacity. The ORR does not believe that introducing a new user to TMI will cause a negative effect to depot performance, nor was performance a differentiating factor between the four new entrant applications. The ORR welcomes the UK governments moves to increase depot capacity for international services.
Virgin was assessed as:
- the highest confidence of operational viability, through more detailed applications and clearer evidence
- joint highest financial viability with Trenitalia, due to investor commitment and state-backing respectively, as well as reasonable revenue and cost forecasts
- Social and economic benefit equal to those of Evolyn and Gemini, higher than Trenitalia (due to a limited service plan from Trenitalia)
- A marginally less efficient use of track capacity due to rolling stock choice, but this is a moot point as track capacity is not a limiting factor.
- The most credible plan with regard to the ORR duty of promoting the use and development of the rail network to the greatest extent economically practicable.
The applications were all regarded as not being of detriment to TMI’s performance, with the ORR noting that multi-operator depots are in use in the UK for multiple operators in multiple locations for light maintenance.
Information regarding TMI and Eurostar
Eurostar uses TMI for 90% of light and heavy maintenance on both the Class 373 and 374, with limited access to depots in Europe.
Eurostar has plans to add a 5th Amsterdam service, and “other (unspecified) destinations”, causing a 17% increase in use for the class 374s and 29% for the class 373s prior to their withdrawal
The introduction of 30 (with options for 20) double decker Alstom Avelia Horizons is intended to support “potential” new services to destinations such as Geneva and Frankfurt. Eurostar
has not specified how many Chunnel services will be operated by the Avelia Horizons.
Both phases of expansion hinge on use of TMI, and Eurostar has announced investment of £80m for expansion of TMI via 4 x 415m maintenance roads in a new shed capable of received the Avelia Horizons.
Eurostar’s plans pose the lowest economic and societal benefits as their new fleet replaces rather than expands (at least initially) their current fleet, and they propose the lowest number of new services, while their longer-term plans were not included in the submissions to the ORR.
Evolyn
No exact start date, plans services from London to Paris initially with proposals for Brussels and Amsterdam
Plans lack sufficient detail on operational details, financial viability (caused by suspiciously low costs and possible omission of staff costs, as well as uncertainty in structure and source of financing). The wider benefit was similar to Virgin and Gemini, but the plans lacked sufficient detail for the ORR to be confident in their viability.
Virgin
20 daily return services across a two-phase launch in 2030.
- Phase 1: 13 return services to Paris, 4 to Brussels
- Phase 2: Increased Paris services and 3 return services to Amsterdam via Brussels
Clear, detailed and evidenced application for space at TMI, addressing all necessary dimensions. Virgin has prior experience of entry to rail markets, and the proposed fleet and maintenance plan is compatible with the available capacity at TMI. Virgin outlined consideration of how TMI would be affected by two operators and provided an assessment of the management of this as far as reasonable at this stage.
Virgin has rolling stock procurement agreed, and reasonable expectations of acquiring finance with a clear financial structure and commitment from several investors (evidenced by letters of support from investors and institutions who could provide senior debt). Virgin forecasts profitability by year 3, and has the means to pay short term debt, their margins are tighter, but their forecasts are more comprehensive creating lower risk than other applicants.
Gemini
Starting in 2029:10 return services, 5 to Paris, 5 to Brussls, all stopping at Ebbsfleet. Slower ramp up period than other applicants. Less detailed operational plan with uncertainties over ECS moves.
Proposed rolling stock exceeded operational road length at TMI by 4 metres, potentially resolvable but this was not addressed so was unclear if Gemini could maintain two trains at once on one road. Rolling stock financing and management was presented in high-level overview, cost of Stratford services was likely to be higher than expanding at St P and no costs were explicitly identified for reopening Ebbsfleet. Gemini submitted multiple pieces of evidence outside of agreed timescales which could not be responded to by other applicants, but this would not have made a difference to the final decision as there are too many “unknowns”.
Trenitalia
10 return services London-Paris within six months of launch in 2029. Only applicant to have depot access in Europe, but did still require a UK depot. Same issues with length of rolling stock (Frecciarossa 1000), although this had been addressed in more detail than by Gemini.
Strong financial backing, although possible risk that Trenitalia had understated costs. Lowest number of additional daily services and initially restricted route operations
