Proposed new Channel Tunnel services discussion

[BahrainLad]

Yes ... it's a little place outside London!

<Sucks teeth> Bit remote though, isn't it? At least in HS1 terms.

 

[Citybreak1]

Lots of questions

What does this mean for the new Eurostar double decker trains?

And Evolyn, Gemini and Trenitalia what will it mean for them if can never happen? I thought Uber have ordered Siemens when will we hear more about this now they have rejected this plan?

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Also I think all the early talk was only one of these operators would actually get this up and running anyway maybe that’s the best we can hope for?

 

[MerlinRail 804]

* any suggestion of reaching Manchester would imply using UK-gauge trains.

Will HS2 be able to take Double deckers?

 

[Sorcerer]

I share some people's surprise that it wasn't Trenitalia. Aside from having a heavy maintenance depot in Milan where the trains likely would've have been serviced I felt they had the strongest case; they were the most experienced in high-speed operations and had a proven off-the-shelf train order unlike the other bidders where it was either a bespoke model or one still in it's infancy.

The key here is probably making best use of the depot capacity which Trenitalia would've fallen short on since their heavy maintenance depot is in Milan, whereas Virgin's bid made full use of Temple Mills. Therefore I can't say that I am displeased with Virgin's win and I look forward to seeing Eurostar get some competition, and the rolling stock order will also be interested.

What does this mean for the new Eurostar double decker trains?

Very little. Eurostar's order of 30 trains can still allow them to replace the existing 373s on the London route along with the PBAs on the continental ones which some have speculated was the initial plan. This simply means they will have a few more extra trainsets to spare and might not exercise the optional 20 units, but I seriously doubt this will disrupt the plans otherwise.

And Evolyn, Gemini and Trenitalia what will it mean for them if can never happen? I thought Uber have ordered Siemens when will we hear more about this now they have rejected this plan?

Also I think all the early talk was only one of these operators would actually get this up and running anyway maybe that’s the best we can hope for?

Not winning it now doesn't mean they never will get the chance to compete. There have been goals recently to get a new continental gauge depot in the UK which means that any new competitors can have their trains be allocated there, though that comes with it's own obstacles which I will save for the speculative thread on the matter. But for now this just simply means Virgin will get access to the spare capacity at Temple Mills.

 

[sprunt]

<Sucks teeth> Bit remote though, isn't it? At least in HS1 terms.

If it were as simple as adding 2 1/4 hours onto the time taken for a Eurostar currently I'd happily use services from Manchester to the continent, but would it be that? What's the fastest that a train could get from Piccadilly to wherever it would hook up with HS1?

(For the sake of argument let's pretend the paths are there and waiting to be used.)

 

[Cach17]

Will HS2 be able to take Double deckers?

There won't be any physical connection between HS1 and HS2, so it's a moot point.

 

[Sorcerer]

I think the crucial point for selecting Virgin over Trenitalia was that Virgin were actually promising to make full use of the capacity at Temple Mills Depot whereas Trenitalia do all their heavy maintenance on the Frecciarossa fleet in Milan that wouldn't make full use of the capacity. In that respect Virgin were always the better choice, it was just a question as to whether Trenitalia's experience running high-speed trains in third countries and having an off-the-shelf design was going to be enough. Evidently the ORR believe that since Virgin and Alstom have delivered in the UK before, they can easily do it again. It is quite a strong partnership to be fair.

 

[MerlinRail 804]

There won't be any physical connection between HS1 and HS2, so it's a moot point.

 

[Brubulus]

I think the crucial point for selecting Virgin over Trenitalia was that Virgin were actually promising to make full use of the capacity at Temple Mills Depot whereas Trenitalia do all their heavy maintenance on the Frecciarossa fleet in Milan that wouldn't make full use of the capacity. In that respect Virgin were always the better choice, it was just a question as to whether Trenitalia's experience running high-speed trains in third countries and having an off-the-shelf design was going to be enough. Evidently the ORR believe that since Virgin and Alstom have delivered in the UK before, they can easily do it again. It is quite a strong partnership to be fair.

I can see this as a reason(UK jobs etc), though approving Trenitalia would have enabled some level of Eurostar expansion.
Secondly is there any chance that Virgins fleet would be built at Derby?
The decisive factor seems to have been this - "73.Trenitalia’s proposal would likely generate the lowest economic and societal benefits of
the applicants. Its plans have the lowest number of additional daily services (20) and
cross-channel seating capacity per day, although it proposes that its service offering
will be fully established within 6 months of starting operations. All services are
proposed between London and Paris only, while other applicants propose a more
diverse array of direct services. On 11 October 2025, Trenitalia publicly announced an
update to its plans to include calling an unspecified number of services at Ashford and
investing in the development of an “innovation hub” at the station. This announcement
has not been supported by any formally submitted evidence, so we have not taken its
content into account in our assessment. Had we received a formal submission, it would
not have made a material difference to our decision in any event."

 

[NCT]

Virgin is proposing 20 return trains. Trenitalia only 10. This seems to me to be the deciding factor.

 

[thomalex]

Love it

 

[TheWierdOne]

I think the crucial point for selecting Virgin over Trenitalia was that Virgin were actually promising to make full use of the capacity at Temple Mills Depot whereas Trenitalia do all their heavy maintenance on the Frecciarossa fleet in Milan that wouldn't make full use of the capacity. In that respect Virgin were always the better choice, it was just a question as to whether Trenitalia's experience running high-speed trains in third countries and having an off-the-shelf design was going to be enough. Evidently the ORR believe that since Virgin and Alstom have delivered in the UK before, they can easily do it again. It is quite a strong partnership to be fair.

This will probably have been I tipping point I would guess. Given that Trenitalia and Virgin were equal in most other areas it would have been remiss for the ORR not to factor in who would do the most with what is available. I suspect Virgin's experience of navigating UK government procedures played in their favour here, ORR were very clear in the decision letter that Virgin had presented an extremely comprehensive application which no doubt has come from their experience on the west and east coasts

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View attachment 191389

Love it

Hats off to Virgins publicity team for having this ready to go

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Where does this leave Eurostar's own plans for expansion?

They intend to build an extra shed/storage road for maintenance of their enlarged fleet.
I think that was necessary anyway for the double deck stock.

 

[Ellwill]

I share some people's surprise that it wasn't Trenitalia.

ORR seems to be of the view that their offering would be less beneficial than that of the other applicants due to the limited scope of proposed services. 10 return trips to Paris (no Brussels or Amsterdam services) with stops at Ashford promised.

There were also concerns with the length of the Frecciarossa stock being too long for two sets coupled together to fit on the roads at TMI. This, coupled with a lack of detail for their infrastructure and maintenance plans, meant that ORR couldn't properly determine the viability of their plans.

It's not quite over for them however, they could come back and say they want to stable overnight at St Pancs and carry out all maintenance work on the continent.

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They intend to build an extra shed/storage road for maintenance of their enlarged fleet.
I think that was necessary anyway for the double deck stock.

Eurostar will continue to invest in expansion at TMI to increase capacity, but ORR will be expecting them to scale back their plans to accommodate for Virgin.

 

[Cach17]

I'd be happier if it wasn't just STP being served. Part of me wonders/hopes that Eurostar will do some more one-upping by announcing the reopening of Ashford/Ebbsfleet?

Love it

Reminds me of when BA introduced their 'ethnic liveries' in the late 90s and Virgin Atlantic trolled them by putting union flags on their own planes!

 

[Sorcerer]

Secondly is there any chance that Virgins fleet would be built at Derby?

If Virgin are planning to have a fleet with provisions for running on the National Rail network then they could theoretically have the trains built in Derby, but I would wager that as fairly unlikely to be honest. Having a fleet not to UIC gauge is a disadvantage for passenger comfort when your competition will have one, and Manchester-Paris despite Virgin's hopes is highly unlikely.

Building a continental gauge fleet in Derby would mean needing to transport them by road, a logistical nightmare compared to just having Alstom build them in France for cheaper and being able to transport them through the tunnel they will be spending the rest of their lives travelling through on a near daily basis.

This will probably have been I tipping point I would guess. Given that Trenitalia and Virgin were equal in most other areas it would have been remiss for the ORR not to factor in who would do the most with what is available. I suspect Virgin's experience of navigating UK government procedures played in their favour here, ORR were very clear in the decision letter that Virgin had presented an extremely comprehensive application which no doubt has come from their experience on the west and east coasts

Pretty much spot on here. Virgin were offering double the services with full use of the depot in question and also have a strong partnership with Alstom means the first of it's kind fleet can be delivered. It was always technically possible but Virgin and Alstom have a good track record, so I would be confident in them delivering too.

 

[Sorcerer]

ORR seems to be of the view that their offering would be less beneficial than that of the other applicants due to the limited scope of proposed services. 10 return trips to Paris (no Brussels or Amsterdam services) with stops at Ashford promised.

There were also concerns with the length of the Frecciarossa stock being too long for two sets coupled together to fit on the roads at TMI. This, coupled with a lack of detail for their infrastructure and maintenance plans, meant that ORR couldn't properly determine the viability of their plans.

It's not quite over for them however, they could come back and say they want to stable overnight at St Pancs and carry out all maintenance work on the continent.

Overall I might've overestimated Trenitalia's chances. Perhaps they were riding on having experience and their stock being a proven off-the-shelf design? Hard to say but even if they did it evidently wasn't enough.

 

[Trainbike46]

I do wonder why virgin felt able to offer so many more services for the same depot space as any of the other contestants

 

[TheWierdOne]

If Virgin are planning to have a fleet with provisions for running on the National Rail network then they could theoretically have the trains built in Derby, but I would wager that as fairly unlikely to be honest. Having a fleet not to UIC gauge is a disadvantage for passenger comfort when your competition will have one, and Manchester-Paris despite Virgin's hopes is highly unlikely.

I don't think being below UIC gauge is a barrier to comfort, the refurbished Pendolinos manage to be very good on comfort (opinions may vary) while being substantially smaller than UIC to allow for tilting. If anyone can manage it I would be confident Virgin could.

The ORR did note that Virgin haven't presented detailed proposals for Manchester services, but I imagine this will be tied into using capacity on the WCML opened up by HS2.

I do wonder why virgin felt able to offer so many more services for the same depot space as any of the other contestants

I think essentially this will boil down to Virgin having both the experience and the guts to try it. Gemini and Evolyn are private companies but inexperiened, Trenitalia has the clout of experience but the reticence of a state-operator.

 

[absolutelymilk]

I think essentially this will boil down to Virgin having both the experience and the guts to try it. Gemini and Evolyn are private companies but inexperiened, Trenitalia has the clout of experience but the reticence of a state-operator.

Are Virgin buying more trains to do it than Trenitalia were planning to?

 

[Zomboid]

I don't think being below UIC gauge is a barrier to comfort, the refurbished Pendolinos manage to be very good on comfort

No complaints about 373s from me... I quite like travelling in 390s in their current state as well.

Which is not to say that UIC couldn't be even better, but it's certainly possible to build a comfortable train to British sizings.

 

[zwk500]

No complaints about 373s from me... I quite like travelling in 390s in their current state as well.

Which is not to say that UIC couldn't be even better, but it's certainly possible to build a comfortable train to British sizings.

I expect Virgin will be seeing Manchester as a 'later expansion' option. They will almost certainly want the lowest-risk options for rolling stock to get the key revenue generating trains up and running as quickly as possible. Given the ORR rejected open access applications for the WCML due to insufficient capacity, VTE will not be expecting to run beyond HS1 any time soon.

 

[Sorcerer]

Although it is indeed possible to run comfortable rolling stock at the British loading gauge, it would be more expensive to build a bespoke fleet specifically for the UK network on the premise of a service expansion that may or may not even happen in the far future, let alone the foreseeable, most especially when it will give your competition an edge with roomier and more spacious trains. Building a UIC fleet seems like the no-brainer option in my opinion.

 

[TheWierdOne]

Are Virgin buying more trains to do it than Trenitalia were planning to?

Yes, but Virgin are also planning over double the amount of services that Trenitalia asked for. Virgin is using 12 trains for 40 services, Trenitalia was proposing 10 trains for 20. So in effect, 3.3 services per day per train vs 2 services per day per train, although probably higher for both considering maintenance requirements. It would also help that Virgin are going for Paris, Brussels and Amsterdam whereas Trenitalia only wanted London-Paris, presumably to link in some way with their Paris-Milan services

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Although it is indeed possible to run comfortable rolling stock at the British loading gauge, it would be more expensive to build a bespoke fleet specifically for the UK network on the premise of a service expansion that may or may not even happen in the far future, let alone the foreseeable, most especially when it will give your competition an edge with roomier and more spacious trains. Building a UIC fleet seems like the no-brainer option in my opinion.

The New Pendolino may have been chosen specifically for adaptability regarding gauge? Alstom will have experience of building high(ish) speed for British loading gauges what with their experience of the original Pendolino. The New Pendo will presumably have a smaller loading gauge than comparable single-deck products from Siemens or Stadler anyway due to the tilting capability.

 

[NCT]

Has there ever been any indication of tilt? The stock type is reported as the Avelia Stream - while a Pendolino derivative I don't think tilt is obvious at all. The CGIs (pinch of salt and all that) suggest pretty straight sides - a body profile not designed for tilt.

 

[Sorcerer]

The New Pendolino may have been chosen specifically for adaptability regarding gauge? Alstom will have experience of building high(ish) speed for British loading gauges what with their experience of the original Pendolino. The New Pendo will presumably have a smaller loading gauge than comparable single-deck products from Siemens or Stadler anyway due to the tilting capability.

I think it was chosen because it's the only single-deck 300km/h train currently on offer from Alstom who Virgin have good relations with. They didn't want double-deck units like the Avelia Horizon, and the AGV is discontinued, though it's technology along with the New Pendolino platform was brought into the Avelia Stream platform. It most likely won't have tilting capability though because there is simply no need for it. Tilting trains are pretty much on their way out anyway by the looks of it, so there's really no need to build a trainset designed to accommodate it.

 

[TheWierdOne]

Has there ever been any indication of tilt? The stock type is reported as the Avelia Stream - while a Pendolino derivative I don't think tilt is obvious at all. The CGIs (pinch of salt and all that) suggest pretty straight sides - a body profile not designed for tilt.

I think it was chosen because it's the only single-deck 300km/h train currently on offer from Alstom who Virgin have good relations with. They didn't want double-deck units like the Avelia Horizon, and the AGV is discontinued, though it's technology along with the New Pendolino platform was brought into the Avelia Stream platform. It most likely won't have tilting capability though because there is simply no need for it. Tilting trains are pretty much on their way out anyway by the looks of it, so there's really no need to build a trainset designed to accommodate it.

I'm aware that Virgin aren't buying tilt capability, but the New Pendolino is designed to have tilt if necessary so presumably it will have a smaller loading gauge whether tilt is actually installed or not?

 

[NCT]

I'm aware that Virgin aren't buying tilt capability, but the New Pendolino is designed to have tilt if necessary so presumably it will have a smaller loading gauge whether tilt is actually installed or not?

It's a family with tilt as an option, but I'm not convinced this means Avelia Stream bodyshells will automatically be tilt compatible. In fact most existing Avelia Stream have non-tilt bodyshell profiles.

 

[Sorcerer]

I'm aware that Virgin aren't buying tilt capability, but the New Pendolino is designed to have tilt if necessary so presumably it will have a smaller loading gauge whether tilt is actually installed or not?

The bodyshell might be smaller than a train built without the ability to tilt in mind, but it'd still be built to UIC gauge unless Virgin really are banking on getting future paths to Manchester. But for the London-Continent market alone it wouldn't be advantageous to build such a train to the British loading gauge.

A UIC Pendolino is still wider and more spacious than the UK Pendolino, but we'd have to assume the original artist impression won't be the final design, which I actually don't think it will be. I'd expect it to either end up being a design similar to Amtrak's Avelia Liberty (right) but as an EMU, or Italo's ETR 675 (left). I lean more towards the latter.

 

[Markuk]

https://www.virgin.com/branson-fami...k-to-launch-a-rival-train-service-through-the

Cheeky publicity stunt at St Pancras too