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Best time to buy an advance ticket

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a_c_skinner

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Living north of Lancaster off peak standard returns to Euston are OK value, which is what I normally do. However in a moment of lavish abandon my next trip is coming back on a first advanced. It is all booked using this site but do prices go up and down depending on when you buy? Is early booking rewarded or are there last minute bargains?
 
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Gaelan

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Living north of Lancaster off peak standard returns to Euston are OK value, which is what I normally do. However in a moment of lavish abandon my next trip is coming back on a first advanced. It is all booked using this site but do prices go up and down depending on when you buy? Is early booking rewarded or are there last minute bargains?
Once advance tickets go on sale, prices are likely to only go up, not down. So it’s wise to book as early as possible.

If you’re too early, though, there might be no advance tickets at all, only full-price anytime/off-peak tickets. In this case it’s likely best to wait for advances to go on sale.

The exact date advances become available varies by operator, and is documented here: https://www.nationalrail.co.uk/travel-information/advance-booking-dates/
 

a_c_skinner

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Once advance tickets go on sale, prices are likely to only go up, not down. So it’s wise to book as early as possible.

If you’re too early, though, there might be no advance tickets at all, only full-price anytime/off-peak tickets. In this case it’s likely best to wait for advances to go on sale.

The exact date advances become available varies by operator, and is documented here: https://www.nationalrail.co.uk/travel-information/advance-booking-dates/
I did wait for the weather forecast to say the whole system was likely to be running! So my instinct to buy now was correct. But were they likely cheaper a couple of weeks ago (three weeks ahead or even longer)?
 

Tester

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I did wait for the weather forecast to say the whole system was likely to be running! So my instinct to buy now was correct. But were they likely cheaper a couple of weeks ago (three weeks ahead or even longer)?
brfares.com will tell you all the possible advance fare levels, but I don't know of any way to tell what level was offered at what time.

TOCs have, as I understand it, complete discretion to offer (or not offer) advance fares at any level, at any time, and in any quantity.

It's a lottery - and not remotely suitable to be the main fares offering - hello LNER :frown:
 

sh24

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It’s not experience of your specific journey but from GWR, EMR and LNER the only time I have seen advance fares go down is if there is a specific sale or promotion. Ordinarily the prices just go up and up the fare ladder.
 

redreni

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I don't buy Advances very often any more, but the last few football seasons when I've been up the ECML, I have noticed that during the extended booking horizon:
  1. You didn't have the full range of retailers to choose from, with only the operators themselves and Trainline offering Advances, and
  2. In the case of LNER, prices for the dates of the relevant fixtures were higher than they would be subsequently, during the normal booking horizon.
In other words, prices can sometimes go down as well as up, it just doesn't tend to happen within the last few weeks before the date of travel. I believe @yorkie has posted in the past about LNER and some of the dubious "book early for the best fare"-type marketing they may have put out, and whether it was accurate.

If you decide to wait and see if fares will go down, always consider what your options would be if Advance fares go up. Would you still want or need to travel on those dates? How much is the walk-up fare? What other options / modes of transport could you take?
 

MrJeeves

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Within the public booking windows linked above (usually about 12 weeks), prices are unlikely to go down after you book.

Outside of the 12 week window, some TOCs offer an extending booking horizon. In some cases, you might see advance journeys further than 12 weeks out decrease in price when they cross the 12 week boundary.

I don't think there are any kinds of statistics about how often this happens, but it does happen.
 

a_c_skinner

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There won't be any last minute bargains to fill seats.
That was the thought crossing my mind. Mind you the seats always do seem pretty full, thinking about it.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Not the full range of retailers people say up thread. I assume shopping around won't help? I did support this site by using the sites booking system.
 

MrJeeves

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Not the full range of retailers people say up thread. I assume shopping around won't help? I did support this site by using the sites booking system.
Everyone uses the same reservations system, and there shouldn't be any differences between retailer pricing as a result (other than things like split ticketing of course).
 

thejuggler

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Pay the price you are happy with, but don't assume nearer the date of travel will mean the fully flexible expensive fare.

A few weeks go I needed a Kings Cross Leeds ticket at short notice. It was a £50 advance fare an hour before travel.
 
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