2023 Israel - Hamas / Hezbollah war

[ainsworth74]

I can't help but feel that nothing will be good enough for Israel, and they'll find some excuse to say the deal was broken and continue the bombing. Far too many people have probably already come up with their designs for hotels, apartments and golf courses to let anyone spoil said plans.

All depends on what Netanyahu think he can get Trump to do. I reckon this most recent move towards a ceasefire is because Netanyahu has calculated that he's pushed Trump a bit too far for the time being so needs to play nice for at least a little while. Stroke the Trumpian ego for a little while (did we all see that extra-ordinarily odious interview clip from some point in the past few months where he said Trump should get multiple Nobel Peace prizes?) until Trump gets distracted again and then look at resuming hostilities at that point. That's going to the crunch. If Netanyahu thinks he can get away with more he clearly will.

Oh, or if he thinks that his own domestic position becomes dangerous again. After all, in some respects, Netanyahu is almost a moderate when compared to the likes of Smotrich or Ben Gvir and he needs them on side to avoid early elections which he may well lose. If that starts to become a risk he might restart hostilities even in the face of Trump and US anger.

The man is, after all, mostly worried about himself and what is best for him. What's best for Isreal is always at best second to that.

 

[Belperpete]

I'm wondering if Hamas at least partially accepting this plan is calling Israel's bluff; Netanyahu needs continuous war for his own political survival, so maybe Hamas are looking at this and thinking the best hope is accept these plans now and try and gain moral high ground if the Israeli side violates it.

What use is the moral high ground if Israel resumes its slaughter? It is highly unlikely that Trump will act against Israel, as we have already seen when Netanyahu has broken previous agreements. And while he has said that he has accepted the plan, Netanyahu has already given clear indications that he won't abide by it. And it is equally clear that all most Israelis seem to care about is the return of the hostages, so if he can achieve that, are likely to give him a relatively free hand to do what he wants afterwards.

It looks to me like Hamas has been leant on heavily by its Arab supporters to play along. It does look to be a game of who blinks first.

After the Northern Ireland agreement, there were still some atrocities committed by hardliners who refused to accept it. In that case, the UK government gritted it's teeth and carried on with the peace process. With a highly splintered organisation like Hamas, it is almost inevitable that some of those splinters will likewise refuse to accept this deal, and will continue fighting. Unfortunately I feel that Netanyahu is relying on this happening as an excuse to then pull out of this deal.

And while this plan may deal with the situation in Gaza, it still leaves the situation in the West Bank unresolved.

 

[Carlisle]

What use is the moral high ground if Israel resumes its slaughter?

I completely agree although can’t see Hamas ever likely walking away with the moral high ground either .

Ok it’s extremely sad if some of them were badly misled by the ideology of their Iranian sponsors, who knows ? I doubt the Ayatollah ever gave a jot about improving the average person’s existence in Gaza, it was only really about spheres of influence.

 

[Peter C]

This just in from BBC News: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cx2nzlj2j4kt

Trump says Israel and Hamas have agreed to first phase of Gaza peace deal, paving way for ceasefire​

• US President Donald Trump says Israel and Hamas have agreed to the first phase of his Gaza peace deal - what we know so far at a glance
• The agreement would see the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, the withdrawal of Israeli forces and the entry of aid into Gaza
• Israel's government will meet today, and if it formally approves the deal, a ceasefire will go into effect
• The US says all the remaining Israeli hostages would be released on Monday - here's a timeline of possible next steps
• Hamas confirms the deal, but a Palestinian source tells the BBC it has not yet received the final list of prisoners that Israel plans to release in exchange
• This is a significant moment but there is no guarantee that a peace deal for Gaza will happen, as crucial details still need to be worked out, writes Hugo Bachega
• Palestinians in Gaza and hostage families in Israel have been celebrating the breakthrough, which came after intense negotiations in Egypt
• Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calls the agreement "a great day" for his country, while UK PM Keir Starmer says it is a "moment of profound relief that will be felt around the world"

-Peter

 

[jon0844]

I don't think I could be considered as a modern day Nostradamus, but once the hostages are released then I have zero doubt there will be something that triggers the continued attack on Gaza.

Far too much time and effort has been put into drawing up plans (heck, even beginning clearance of many areas by Israel itself) for the new Dubai-esque resort, so there's no way that this isn't going to happen as intended.

Any little thing will be construed as Gaza reneging on their deal.

In any case, Gaza would have no way to rebuild after two years of bombardment and it's clear Israel wouldn't make it easy for them to even try. They'll argue that any money given to the Palestinians would just fund terrorism or something.

Finally, while I don't want anyone to read this the wrong way as I don't condone anyone holding hostages full stop, but Gaza loses what little leverage it had once all the hostages are freed.

 

[Cdd89]

Gaza Hamas loses what little leverage it had once all the hostages are freed.

Slight correction needed here.

Personally I'm more optimistic – releasing the hostages draws a line under the events of the last two years. It's not like holding onto the hostages was a great route to peace, as the endless bombardment has shown.
You are right that Israel may restart attacks, and I would hope/expect them to be widely condemned for doing so – but if that happens it's not much worse than the current situation. So given that the range of outcomes are "same or better", I see a lot of reasons to be cheerful in this announcement.

 

[jon0844]

Israel absolutely will find an excuse to resume attacks and ensure they have to take it over, along with lots of contractors from around the world stepping up to help rebuild. I am very sure this post can be looked back upon in years to come to see I was right.

I can't see any alternative outcome as long as we have Netanyahu in power, supported by business interests around the world (including Trump's son-in-law).

 

[bleeder4]

Israel absolutely will find an excuse to resume attacks and ensure they have to take it over, along with lots of contractors from around the world stepping up to help rebuild. I am very sure this post can be looked back upon in years to come to see I was right.

I can't see any alternative outcome as long as we have Netanyahu in power, supported by business interests around the world (including Trump's son-in-law).

Maybe but the important thing is that, right now, people are no longer dying and suffering over there. Who knows what the future will hold, but the fact that there are people now alive this afternoon who would not have been had this peace not happened is something that we should all be very thankful for.

 

[jon0844]

Maybe but the important thing is that, right now, people are no longer dying and suffering over there. Who knows what the future will hold, but the fact that there are people now alive this afternoon who would not have been had this peace not happened is something that we should all be very thankful for.

Yes, and I hope I'll be proved wrong with my assumption that there's just a temporary pause before it all starts over. Too many people want to empty Gaza and go in to turn it into something like a tourist resort - Trump and others said as much on numerous occasions. We should believe them.

We should also follow the money because there will be lots of contractors required to rebuild.

 

[uglymonkey]

Amazing to see the streams of people heading back, not sure I would be so trusting of a ceasefire holding so quickly after it starts.

 

[GusB]

Amazing to see the streams of people heading back, not sure I would be so trusting of a ceasefire holding so quickly after it starts.

I can understand why people are desperate to return home but a great number of people will be returning to nothing but rubble or completely empty space. I was listening to the news at lunchtime and heard an interview with a woman who couldn't even recognise the street where she once lived, let alone find her house.

I'm also sceptical about a ceasefire holding once the hostages are released; I fear that Netanyahu will find the slightest excuse to renege on the agreement and then all those people will be in danger again - not that they were ever really safe in the refugee camps.

I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Belperpete]

I'm also sceptical about a ceasefire holding once the hostages are released; I fear that Netanyahu will find the slightest excuse to renege on the agreement and then all those people will be in danger again - not that they were ever really safe in the refugee camps.
I hope I'm wrong.

As he reneged on the previous Trump deal, where IIRC subsequent hostage releases were supposed to be reliant on Israeli withdrawals. Netanyahu subsequently insisted on all the hostages being released first, contrary to what had been agreed, and Trump sided with him, rather than insisting on honouring the original agreement.

There are two significant differences this time. Then there was the argument that Hamas shouldn't be seen to benefit by holding hostages, which won't apply this time if they have released them all. And now, I think Trump has got fed up with Netanyahu, has realised that Netanyahu has been playing him, and so Trump seems to be taking a much firmer line.

Unfortunately I too suspect that Netanyahu will take the slightest excuse to say that Hamas has broken the deal. And with such a splintered organisation, there is almost certain to be cells within Hamas that refuse to comply.

The big question then will be what will Trump do. Unfortunately I think it will be another Ukraine, where when Putin refused to play along, Trump essentially washed his hands of it.

 

[brad465]

As he reneged on the previous Trump deal, where IIRC subsequent hostage releases were supposed to be reliant on Israeli withdrawals. Netanyahu subsequently insisted on all the hostages being released first, contrary to what had been agreed, and Trump sided with him, rather than insisting on honouring the original agreement.

There are two significant differences this time. Then there was the argument that Hamas shouldn't be seen to benefit by holding hostages, which won't apply this time if they have released them all. And now, I think Trump has got fed up with Netanyahu, has realised that Netanyahu has been playing him, and so Trump seems to be taking a much firmer line.

A third factor is the IDF bombed Qatar, a notable US ally in the region, and didn't even hit any of the targets the IDF were looking for.

 

[Belperpete]

A third factor is the IDF bombed Qatar, a notable US ally in the region, and didn't even hit any of the targets the IDF were looking for.

I had included that as one of the things that had p****d Trump off with Netanyahu. It did seem to mark a distinct change in their relationship, as it brought home to Trump that Netanyahu was taking him for granted.

 

[jon0844]

And now Qatar gets a military base in the US.. I wonder if Trump is making new friends?

 

[GusB]

Well, we're less than a week in to the so-called "cease-fire" and it hasn't taken long for the vile Israeli regime to change its tune:

Israel and Hamas trade accusations as tensions rise over hostages’ remains

Militant group says it needs specialist equipment to recover bodies as Netanyahu says fight ‘is not over yet’

www.theguardian.com

Israel’s defence minister threatened on Wednesday to resume fighting if Hamas does not honour the continuing terms of the deal.

“If Hamas refuses to comply with the agreement, Israel, in coordination with the United States, will resume fighting and act to achieve a total defeat of Hamas, to change the reality in Gaza and achieve all the objectives of the war,” a statement from Israel Katz’s office said.

Considering the amount of destruction in Gaza, is it really surprising that there will be some difficulty in retrieving some of the bodies?

No doubt some will suggest that this is Hamas reneging on its agreement, but not being able to find something because all nearby reference points have been obliterated is a fairly good reason.

This whole thing was set up to fail from the outset.

Before anyone complains about Hamas treating its captives in an appalling manner, have a read of this:

Palestinian bodies returned by Israel show signs of torture and execution, say doctors

Almost all had been blindfolded and had gunshot wounds between the eyes, says medic at Nasser hospital in Gaza

www.theguardian.com

Many of the 90 bodies of Palestinians returned to Gaza by Israeli authorities under the ceasefire deal showed signs of torture and execution, including blindfolds, cuffed hands and bullet wounds in the head, according to doctors’ accounts.

As part of the US-brokered truce, Hamas has handed over the bodies of some of the hostages who died during the course of the war, and Israel has transferred the bodies of two groups of 45 Palestinians killed during the fighting. The exchange was carried out through the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).


Doctors at Nasser hospital in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis, which received the Palestinian bodies from the ICRC, said on Wednesday there was substantial evidence of beatings and summary executions, and that none of the bodies were identifiable.


“Almost all of them had been blindfolded, and had been bound up and they had gunshots between the eyes. Almost all of them had been executed,” said Dr Ahmed al-Farra, the head of Nasser hospital’s paediatric department.

“There were also scars and discoloured patches of skin showing they had been beaten before being killed. There were also signs that their bodies had been abused after they were killed.”

Farra added that the bodies had been handed over by the Israeli authorities with no identification, and the hospitals in Gaza, heavily bombed over the course of two years of war, had no means of doing DNA analysis.

“They know the identity of these bodies but they want the families to suffer even more about these victims,” the doctor said.

Nasser hospital authorities said the bodies, which had been kept in refrigerators in Israel, were returned with numbered labels but no names. Doctors said they were asking relatives of missing Palestinian men to help identify the bodies.

The Israel Defense Forces referred an inquiry on the allegations to the Israel Prison Service, which the Guardian has approached for comment.

Remind me why we consider Israel to be "the only democracy in the Middle East".

 

[Bantamzen]

Well, we're less than a week in to the so-called "cease-fire" and it hasn't taken long for the vile Israeli regime to change its tune:

Israel and Hamas trade accusations as tensions rise over hostages’ remains

Militant group says it needs specialist equipment to recover bodies as Netanyahu says fight ‘is not over yet’

www.theguardian.com

Considering the amount of destruction in Gaza, is it really surprising that there will be some difficulty in retrieving some of the bodies?

No doubt some will suggest that this is Hamas reneging on its agreement, but not being able to find something because all nearby reference points have been obliterated is a fairly good reason.

This whole thing was set up to fail from the outset.

Before anyone complains about Hamas treating its captives in an appalling manner, have a read of this:

Palestinian bodies returned by Israel show signs of torture and execution, say doctors

Almost all had been blindfolded and had gunshot wounds between the eyes, says medic at Nasser hospital in Gaza

www.theguardian.com

Remind me why we consider Israel to be "the only democracy in the Middle East".

It's what I have been saying to people on numerous forums for some time. Most people treat the conflict in a binary fashion, i.e. Bad Guys (Israel) vs Good Guys (Gaza), whereas the reality is it's really Bad Guys (Israeli Government) vs Bad Guys (Hamas - aka Gaza's Government), with a whole lot of frightened / injured / dead people (Palestinians & Israeli civilians) stuck in the middle. Moreover many of the reasons for the conflict go way back in time, so whilst it is wonderful to see the remaining living hostages realised, it's not going to end the reasons for the conflict. That is a long, difficult road that hasn't even been trod on yet.

I also think that it won't, maybe even can't be just the West that brings any kind of longer term peace to the region. The Middle Eastern nations are going to have to have at least an equal say in formulating a strategy, and we in the west are perhaps going to have to accept that a peace deal may not end up having the kind of democratic structure that we might hope for. Religion is going to play a massive part in all of this, many people in that area put it way above politics, so we are going to need to allow that to form part of how the region recovers into some form of stability. This means that there shouldn't be any Western "heroes" be they presidents touting for the Nobel Peace Prize, or people waving flags in Trafalgar Square. The peace process will need to be subtle, careful, free of any egos, and most importantly free of forced Western values.

 

[brad465]

It's what I have been saying to people on numerous forums for some time. Most people treat the conflict in a binary fashion, i.e. Bad Guys (Israel) vs Good Guys (Gaza), whereas the reality is it's really Bad Guys (Israeli Government) vs Bad Guys (Hamas - aka Gaza's Government), with a whole lot of frightened / injured / dead people (Palestinians & Israeli civilians) stuck in the middle. Moreover many of the reasons for the conflict go way back in time, so whilst it is wonderful to see the remaining living hostages realised, it's not going to end the reasons for the conflict. That is a long, difficult road that hasn't even been trod on yet.

I also think that it won't, maybe even can't be just the West that brings any kind of longer term peace to the region. The Middle Eastern nations are going to have to have at least an equal say in formulating a strategy, and we in the west are perhaps going to have to accept that a peace deal may not end up having the kind of democratic structure that we might hope for. Religion is going to play a massive part in all of this, many people in that area put it way above politics, so we are going to need to allow that to form part of how the region recovers into some form of stability. This means that there shouldn't be any Western "heroes" be they presidents touting for the Nobel Peace Prize, or people waving flags in Trafalgar Square. The peace process will need to be subtle, careful, free of any egos, and most importantly free of forced Western values.

Religion does play a part, but the biggest influence is oil. As the world slowly moves on from oil, it will either bring huge peace, or the most extreme conflict to the region. The peace side is less outside influence; the conflict is despots clinging to power in the face of collapsing economies without their prize commodity.

 

[Peter C]

I've just seen this on the BBC News website:

Trump envoy in Israel as UN warns aid supplies into Gaza 'way below what is needed'

Israel has reopened two crossings in Gaza, while the key Rafah crossing will stay closed to the movement of people until further notice.

www.bbc.co.uk

Summary​

• The Israel Defense Forces says it has carried out air strikes on Rafah after an attack by Hamas on its troops in Gaza
• The IDF has called the attack a "bold violation of the ceasefire"
• In response, Hamas says it is committed to the ceasefire and alleges that Israel "continues to breach the agreement"
• The deal struck earlier this month required the IDF to withdraw from parts of Gaza, but allows the Israeli army to remain in certain areas, including Rafah
• The Israeli military launched a campaign in Gaza in response to the 7 October 2023 attack, in which Hamas-led gunmen killed about 1,200 people in southern Israel and took 251 others hostage
• At least 68,000 people have been killed by Israeli attacks in Gaza since then, according to the Hamas-run health ministry

-Peter

*****Original post above posted 12:54 • Addition below posted 20:12*****

...And now an update from BBC News:

Trump envoy in Israel as UN warns aid supplies into Gaza 'way below what is needed'

Israel has reopened two crossings in Gaza, while the key Rafah crossing will stay closed to the movement of people until further notice.

www.bbc.co.uk

• Israel says it has "begun renewed enforcement" of the ceasefire, hours after carrying out a "wave of strikes" on Gaza
• The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hamas have accused each other of breaching the ceasefire deal today
• Earlier, the IDF said Hamas "fired an anti-tank missile and gunfire toward IDF troops" near Rafah, but the group says it is unaware of any clashes there
• Hamas has said Israel "continues to breach the agreement", while the IDF says the alleged attack by Hamas is a "bold violation of the ceasefire"
• At least 44 Palestinians have been killed across Gaza today, medical and local sources say
• The Israeli military launched a campaign in Gaza in response to the 7 October 2023 attack, in which Hamas-led gunmen killed about 1,200 people in southern Israel and took 251 others hostage
• More than 68,000 people have been killed by Israeli attacks in Gaza since then, according to the Hamas-run health ministry

-Peter

 

[brad465]

Here we go again:

Israel PM Netanyahu orders military to immediately strike Gaza - live updates

It comes as Israel says a coffin handed over by Hamas on Monday did not contain the body of another deceased hostage.

www.bbc.co.uk

Israel says coffin from Hamas did not contain another hostage's body
​

The statement from Benjamin Netanyahu's office comes as Israel says a coffin handed over by Hamas on Monday did not contain the body of another deceased hostage.

Forensic tests showed the remains belonged to Ofir Tzarfati, whose body was recovered by Israeli forces in late 2023, and not to any of the 13 deceased hostages still in Gaza, his office said.

It accused Hamas of a "clear violation" of the two-week-old Gaza ceasefire deal. There was no immediate comment from Hamas.

The group has said it is committed to the deal brokered by the US, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey, but that it needs help to find remains buried under the rubble left by two years of war.

 

[martin butler]

Sadly, this will just continue, until both sides are just too exhausted in killing, the only way forward IMHO, is regime change in Iran, and in Israel, moderate governments, and an pan arab force to ensure Gaza remains under control, and that Hamas can't re group,

 

[brad465]

Israel are now being allowed to compete in the next Eurovision, and four countries who threatened to boycott if this happens are following through (other countries are deciding in the near future):

Netherlands, Spain, Ireland and Slovenia boycott Eurovision after Israel allowed to compete

They, and other members of the European Broadcasting Union, had called for Israel to be excluded over the humanitarian toll of the war in Gaza.

www.bbc.co.uk

Several countries boycott Eurovision after Israel allowed to compete​

​

Ireland, Spain and the Netherlands say they will boycott next year's Eurovision Song Contest, after Israel was allowed to compete.

They were among a number of countries who had called for Israel to be excluded over the humanitarian toll of the war in Gaza, and accusations of unfair voting practices.

Stay with us as we bring you more updates on this developing story.

Slovenia joins countries boycotting Eurovision​

​

The country's national broadcaster, RTV, makes the announcement on its website.

 

[GusB]

I'm shocked but not entirely surprised by the passing of this awful law. The footage of Ben Gvir celebrating in the Knesset with champagne was utterly disgusting.

‘Discriminatory’ Israeli death penalty law would be war crime, says UN rights chief

Volker Türk says bill, which applies to Palestinians convicted of terror charges but not Jewish extremists, must be repealed

www.theguardian.com

A new Israeli law that would allow the execution of Palestinians convicted on terror charges for deadly attacks, but not Jewish extremists accused of similar crimes, would constitute a war crime if enacted, according to one of the UN’s most senior human rights officials.

Speaking amid mounting international condemnation of the bill, the UN’s high commissioner for human rights, Volker Türk, described the law as “patently inconsistent with Israel’s international law obligations, including in relation to the right to life”. He added that it “raises serious concerns about due process violations, is deeply discriminatory, and must be promptly repealed”.


“Its application in a discriminatory manner would constitute an additional, particularly egregious violation of international law. Its application to residents of the occupied Palestinian territory would constitute a war crime,” Türk said.

The legislation, passed on Monday by the Israeli Knesset, has faced a wave of criticism, including from European leaders and human rights groups.

 

[Trackman]

I'm shocked but not entirely surprised by the passing of this awful law. The footage of Ben Gvir celebrating in the Knesset with champagne was utterly disgusting.

‘Discriminatory’ Israeli death penalty law would be war crime, says UN rights chief

Volker Türk says bill, which applies to Palestinians convicted of terror charges but not Jewish extremists, must be repealed

www.theguardian.com

Not doing themselves any favours are they?

 

[Flying Snail]

Not doing themselves any favours are they?

They are now very confident that they can get away with openly doing as they please without any significant resistance from anyone that they fear, they keep pushing the boundaries of the levels of atrocities they commit and are ever more emboldened by the tolerance the receive in return.

The sad truth is that they are probably correct, the response to their myriad crimes up to this point from the majority of governments has been beyond pathetic, particularly those in Europe, even the idea of excluding Israel from something as trivial but symbolic as Eurovision was unable to garner serious support in the majority of countries.

 

[martin butler]

What I find totally unexplainable is that a nation, born out of the holocaust, would then inflict the same horrors on other nations, every Iranian, and Palestinian, they kill just gives birth to another generation wishing revenge,

Of course, there are those in power within the Jewish state that actively want endless war, without war, they have no power.

 

[AM9]

What I find totally unexplainable is that a nation, born out of the holocaust, would then inflict the same horrors on other nations, every Iranian, and Palestinian, they kill just gives birth to another generation wishing revenge,

Of course, there are those in power within the Jewish state that actively want endless war, without war, they have no power.

... and lobbies in the US to tolerate/encourage/assist in that venture.

 

[Falcon1200]

What I find totally unexplainable is that a nation, born out of the holocaust, would then inflict the same horrors on other nations, every Iranian, and Palestinian, they kill just gives birth to another generation wishing revenge,

I have to agree; How do the israelis think there will ever be peaceful co-existence in the region? Although, of course, not every neighbouring nation or population desires that anyway.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Not doing themselves any favours are they?

They know they’re untouchable. They don’t care.

and lobbies in the US to tolerate/encourage/assist in that venture.

And in the UK. Look at Labour Friends of Israel. The idea of a foreign nation, even if it is an ally, lavishly funding a UK political party should be a huge no-no.

 

[Ediswan]

What I find totally unexplainable is that a nation, born out of the holocaust, would then inflict the same horrors on other nations, every Iranian, and Palestinian, they kill just gives birth to another generation wishing revenge,

Don't forget the Lebanese. I rather suspect that invading the south iof Lebanon, again, was always part of the 'Iran' plan.