If it's anything like where contactless only already exists eg Hatfield, the cost difference between peak and off peak is negligible. The premium is only noticeable if going to zone 1, sometimes zone 2. I bought a single from Southend Central to Benfleet earlier this year, peak would've been 30p more than off peak. Oval is not perfect, like losing Super Off Peak fares but overall the benefits outweighs the downsides I think. Can't say LNER's trial has any benefits for us passengers at all.
There will be some
significant fares increases as a result of Project Oval, especially for leisure travel.
Looking at my local line, Stevenage to London. Current fares are:
Anytime Day Return £28.90
Off Peak Day Return £22.80 - no evening restrictions on the return
Weekend Super Off Peak Day Return £16.80
We don't know the exact Project Oval fares yet but I suspect that to Kings Cross they'll be something like:
Peak £14.40
Off Peak £11.40
I suspect the weekend super Off Peak fares will be abolished
So on a weekday, at face value the fares are the same but beware the evening peak and weekend trap!
So a passenger travelling out in the morning peak and back in the evening peak pays £28.80 - 10p cheaper than the current fare
A passenger travelling out off peak and back off peak will pay £22.80 compared - same as today
A passenger travelling out off peak but back in the evening peak will pay £25.80 compared to £22.80 at present.
An increase of 13%
A weekend traveller will pay £22.80 compared to £16.80 at present.
An increase of 36%
For completeness, there is an advantage if a passenger touches in prior to 06:30 on a weekday:
A passenger travelling out before 06:30 and returning at an off peak time pays £22.80 compared to £28.90 at present. A saving of 21%
And a passenger travelling out before 06:30 returning in the evening peak pays £25.80 compared to £28.90 at present. A saving of 11%