Storm Amy Travel Disruption (03/10 onwards)

[styles]

I don't think anyone is suggesting ScotRail are making a wrong decision with regard to the Amber warning area. We are suggesting Avanti did, because of their usual "oh dear, the trees are blowing around a bit, cancel everything north of Preston" wolf-crying. They are architects of their own situation.

But Avanti aren't responsible for the trees along their tracks?

Just weeks ago 90mph winds caused disruption to power on the WCML.

We're looking at mid-60s in NW England the central belt. Ok it's not 90mph, but it's 'Storm' and 'Violent Storm' on the classic wind scales.

If they don't issue a do not travel notice, then a tree blocks travel, it'll cause more problems.

Course Avanti's comms could be a lot more consistent.

 

[Class 466]

I don't think anyone is suggesting ScotRail are making a wrong decision with regard to the Amber warning area. We are suggesting Avanti did, because of their usual "oh dear, the trees are blowing around a bit, cancel everything north of Preston" wolf-crying. They are architects of their own situation.

There’s no guarantee that they won’t regret scaling back their messaging yet. We’re talking about a storm that has barely arrived as of yet.

 

[800001]

Avanti's X now seems to be saying that they overreacted and have backed down - there will be trains on Saturday. They are however saying refunds will be honoured for those who have changed their plans because there is the possibility of severe disruption. More than a bit sloppy, that.

This is the "root" post:

https://x.com/AvantiWestCoast/status/1973812010812125652

Have a read at the bin fire unfolding beneath it

They will if amended based on discussions with NR and their forecast at that time.

If forecast

But Avanti aren't responsible for the trees along their tracks?

Just weeks ago 90mph winds caused disruption to power on the WCML.

We're looking at mid-60s in NW England the central belt. Ok it's not 90mph, but it's 'Storm' and 'Violent Storm' on the classic wind scales.

If they don't issue a do not travel notice, then a tree blocks travel, it'll cause more problems.

Course Avanti's comms could be a lot more consistent.

we should copy and paste previous 'storm' threads. As the same conversations occurs.

Damned if do and damned if don't.

 

[Bletchleyite]

But Avanti aren't responsible for the trees along their tracks?

Just weeks ago 90mph winds caused disruption to power on the WCML.

We're looking at mid-60s in NW England the central belt. Ok it's not 90mph, but it's 'Storm' and 'Violent Storm' on the classic wind scales.

If they don't issue a do not travel notice, then a tree blocks travel, it'll cause more problems.

Course Avanti's comms could be a lot more consistent.

I think you're missing the point a bit. Avanti routinely cancel north of Preston when it's safe to run to Lancaster or Carlisle because it's too much faff for them to taxi Glasgow crews down. It's this that they should be called out on.

Not running when it is actually unsafe is fine, but that is really Amber level, not Yellow.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Oct 2025 ==

Damned if do and damned if don't.

Avanti should certainly be very strongly damned for:

1. Not running north of Preston when it's safe to do so (even if it's not safe to go all the way to Glasgow);
2. Terrible communications - all the time.

 

[styles]

Not running when it is actually unsafe is fine, but that is really Amber level, not Yellow.

I'm not sure I agree.

I'm not sure their basis for cancellation should be based on a simplified yellow-amber-red system from a third-party at all actually. They are by nature simplified for the general public, not intended to be used for more precise business purposes like where to terminate transport services halfway through a yellow weather warning area.

We shouldn't wait for a tree to fall on top of a train before we cancel services.

 

[Class172]

It must just be (mis)perceptions. both my radar and @Peter Mugridge both show low rainfall all across Cheshire. I doubt that there are 2 radars covering the whole country, so it will all be based on the same data anyway.

View attachment 189563

Whilst I'm not going to weigh in on the argument on whether it has been raining in Cheshire or not, with all this discussion about rainfall radars I feel I must at least provide a cautionary note as they are not infallible. Like some members in this thread I regularly use rainfall radars for planning when to leave the house for example, but they can provide both false positives (detected by radar but none on the ground) and false negatives (not detected but it is raining). There are a host of causes for each, including beam propagation/reflection issues as well as more unusual ones of biological origin (e.g. large masses of flying insects). One scenario where a radar may not adequately pick up rainfall is when low-level rain occurs some distance from the radar source. Due to the orientation of the beam and the Earth's curvature, the radar beam simply sees over the top of the rain so it isn't sufficiently well recorded.

As to their location, yes there are certainly more than two. You can sometimes workout their location in the rainfall map by looking at radar artefacts which can lead radially out from the radar location.

 

[Bletchleyite]

We shouldn't wait for a tree to fall on top of a train before we cancel services.

It may or may not be appropriate to do that. If you are too risk averse the railway becomes a joke.

Maybe they need a chat with airlines on risk management - they're actually good at it for very obvious reasons. Every single time an aircraft takes off it meets with more potential risk than of a train hitting a tree when it's a bit blowy.

 

[Class172]

If someone looks out of their window and says "it's raining heavily" then I think it might best to take them at their word and agree it's raining heavily. It might not be raining heavily across the entirety of Cheshire, but in their part of Cheshire it is. Whatever the rain radar might say.

Indeed, with a frontal system currently making its way across the UK, it is reasonable to surmise that most of the country is going to be experiencing rainfall today; a statement you can easily corroborate by looking at the nationwide radar map.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Indeed, with a frontal system currently making its way across the UK, it is reasonable to surmise that most of the country is going to be experiencing rainfall today; a statement you can easily corroborate by looking at the nationwide radar map.

I can certainly tell you that West Lancashire is, and I need to go out soon

 

[30907]

I don't think anyone is suggesting ScotRail are making a wrong decision with regard to the Amber warning area. We are suggesting Avanti did, because of their usual "oh dear, the trees are blowing around a bit, cancel everything north of Preston" wolf-crying. They are architects of their own situation.

I notice that TPE have also had to amend their posts. Nobody seems to be complaining

I think you're missing the point a bit. Avanti routinely cancel north of Preston when it's safe to run to Lancaster or Carlisle because it's too much faff for them to taxi Glasgow crews down.

TPE are able to run to Carlisle, so the most economical version would be:
Taxi Glasgow-Carlisle, pass to Preston, run Preston-Carlisle and back, pass to Carlisle, taxi to Glasgow.
Is that actually possible within the longest permitted shift?

2. Terrible communications - all the time.

Agreed - though not unique in this.

 

[AndrewE]

If someone looks out of their window and says "it's raining heavily" then I think it might best to take them at their word and agree it's raining heavily. It might not be raining heavily across the entirety of Cheshire, but in their part of Cheshire it is. Whatever the rain radar might say.

If you use it regularly you get a feel for how small patches of rain move and develop or dwindle away. I suggest that you try it going backwards at maximum resolution for where you are, and then decide whether it is more likely to be right than a simple assertion from someone looking out of their window. Certainly this morning the radar has shown slightly heavier rain up towards Leek, but still nothing over 4 mm/h. There were a couple of fleeting patches of "up to 8" over Northwich at about 1055, but nothing like heavy rain: the next band goes from 8 to 16 and definitely counts as "heavy!"

They can't win. But out of the two, I'd rather they chose the latter to potentially preserve life, and at least give people a heads up in advance of their planned travel that they probably ought to sit tight for a bit.

I fully agree. But we are discussing how people's perceptions match the measured reality...
So far the front has only given 1-2 mm/h across most of the country, but heavy rain could well be on the way...

 

[transportphoto]

TPE are able to run to Carlisle, so the most economical version would be:
Taxi Glasgow-Carlisle, pass to Preston, run Preston-Carlisle and back, pass to Carlisle, taxi to Glasgow.
Is that actually possible within the longest permitted shift?

Longest permitted shift is one thing - what the train crew are actually rostered to work is another. If a colleague is expecting to start work at 7am and finish at 3pm (for example) they are unlikely to be willing (or contractually obliged) to start early or finish late.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I notice that TPE have also had to amend their posts. Nobody seems to be complaining

TPE generally don't cry wolf.

TPE are able to run to Carlisle, so the most economical version would be:
Taxi Glasgow-Carlisle, pass to Preston, run Preston-Carlisle and back, pass to Carlisle, taxi to Glasgow.
Is that actually possible within the longest permitted shift?

Is this one of those irritating cases where the esoteric agreements Avanti have with their Unions are immutable even in extremis, and so they can't do something a pragmatic private sector non-railway organisation would like outstation some staff in Carlisle hotels during the disruption? Wouldn't surprise me, but it really is truly depressing the way the railway works in this regard.

Similarly the "not working a route more than once" thing is ludicrous and a bar to a Preston-Carlisle shuttle service for instance, which could be run by two crews, one morning one afternoon, if these silly agreements didn't exist.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Oct 2025 ==

Longest permitted shift is one thing - what the train crew are actually rostered to work is another. If a colleague is expecting to start work at 7am and finish at 3pm (for example) they are unlikely to be willing (or contractually obliged) to start early or finish late.

Meanwhile in the real world in extremis we work pragmatically. We don't break the law, but we are willing to give and take to make things work.

 

[Bantamzen]

If you use it regularly you get a feel for how small patches of rain move and develop or dwindle away. I suggest that you try it going backwards at maximum resolution for where you are, and then decide whether it is more likely to be right than a simple assertion from someone looking out of their window. Certainly this morning the radar has shown slightly heavier rain up towards Leek, but still nothing over 4 mm/h. There were a couple of fleeting patches of "up to 8" over Northwich at about 1055, but nothing like heavy rain: the next band goes from 8 to 16 and definitely counts as "heavy!"

I've subsequently used another analogue method to establish whether or not it has been raining heavily or not. I went outside and got wet rather quickly. This method had the advantage of not requiring any waiting due to lag in the data, and confirmed that it was indeed raining, heavily, in real time. For context I am 55 years old, and lived most of my life in Yorkshire close to the Moors where it rained quite a bit, so I have some experience in the various states of rain.

Hopefully that ought to be enough to conclude this discussion and save the mods any further headaches.

 

[transportphoto]

Looking out of the window and seeing rain isn't anything like looking at the data on the radar, which seems to be at 1km squares or so.

It’s probably time to put this debate to bed - if someone reports it is raining at their location, we take their word for it. They are most qualified to speak for that fact and you are not physically with them (so are unable to vouch for the opposite.)

@Class172 has provided an insight into the drawbacks of relying on radar. It’s not infallible. I also appreciate @Bantamzen’s insight into the weather in Yorkshire.

 

[hexagon789]

I think you're missing the point a bit. Avanti routinely cancel north of Preston when it's safe to run to Lancaster or Carlisle because it's too much faff for them to taxi Glasgow crews down. It's this that they should be called out on.

Not running when it is actually unsafe is fine, but that is really Amber level, not Yellow.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Oct 2025 ==



Avanti should certainly be very strongly damned for:

1. Not running north of Preston when it's safe to do so (even if it's not safe to go all the way to Glasgow);
2. Terrible communications - all the time.

Last time, they did run north of Preston. They ran seperate two-hourly shuttles between Glasgow and Carlisle or Preston.

 

[bramling]

The storm is changing considering earlier this morning it was suggesting Manchester would remain dry most of the day with now heavy rain expected in the next hour.

Yeah seems to be now having a wider effect in the southern part of the country than was being forecasted earlier in the week. 52mph gusts being shown in the London area, which with most trees still being in full leaf could well be extremely disruptive.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Oct 2025 ==

Yellow warnings are a bit "the weather is going to be a bit rubbish" and not a really serious thing unless you're planning on going up a mountain in which case this weekend might not be a good choice. I'm not sure their introduction has been a good thing overall.

It's amber warnings where real danger starts to lie and where TOCs might want to consider withdrawing services.

I’ve found it all a bit haphazard. There’s been days when there’s been no warning at all and it’s been pretty disruptive, and others where a yellow warning seems to have been overkill.

It’s quite hard to get these things right. For the southern part of the country I suspect the biggest issue is going to be that we still have trees in full-leaf, which on top of the very dry summer, is quite a hazardous proposition.

 

[waverley47]

I've subsequently used another analogue method to establish whether or not it has been raining heavily or not. I went outside and got wet rather quickly. This method had the advantage of not requiring any waiting due to lag in the data, and confirmed that it was indeed raining, heavily, in real time. For context I am 55 years old, and lived most of my life in Yorkshire close to the Moors where it rained quite a bit, so I have some experience in the various states of rain.

Hopefully that ought to be enough to conclude this discussion and save the mods any further headaches.

Ah but, I used the same analogue method and established that it's not raining, so your data set must be incomplete.

In all seriousness, if we want a proper conversation about Avanti's stubborn unwillingness to properly provide a crew depot at Carlisle, and the relative merits of running a stub service as far as Carlisle during disruption events, then that's definitely a separate thread (one that I'm pretty sure has been done before).

 

[bramling]

Ah but, I used the same analogue method and established that it's not raining, so your data set must be incomplete.

In all seriousness, if we want a proper conversation about Avanti's stubborn unwillingness to properly provide a crew depot at Carlisle, and the relative merits of running a stub service as far as Carlisle during disruption events, then that's definitely a separate thread (one that I'm pretty sure has been done before).

To be fair, I can see no real value in having crews based at Carlisle. No Avanti trains stable there, and a lot of the time it would just complicate things for no real reason.

What does need to happen though, IMO, is Avanti need to have a better contingency plan, rather than just pulling the whole service north of Preston. In the first instance try to schedule in shuttle services if they’re worried about the rest of the operation being impacted, and perhaps look at running these with diesel trains if feasible (I’m not sure how easy that would be to arrange, let alone at fairly short notice). Failing that, work with TPE to put in place something similar.

 

[6Gman]

Is this one of those irritating cases where the esoteric agreements Avanti have with their Unions are immutable even in extremis, and so they can't do something a pragmatic private sector non-railway organisation would like outstation some staff in Carlisle hotels during the disruption? Wouldn't surprise me, but it really is truly depressing the way the railway works in this regard.

Given how many staff have caring responsibilities and other commitments outside work I think it's unlikely that a cadre of crew willing to spend a couple of days working out of a Carlisle hotel could be recruited.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Oct 2025 ==

To be fair, I can see no real value in having crews based at Carlisle. No Avanti trains stable there, and a lot of the time it would just complicate things for no real reason.

What does need to happen though, IMO, is Avanti need to have a better contingency plan, rather than just pulling the whole service north of Preston. In the first instance try to schedule in shuttle services if they’re worried about the rest of the operation being impacted, and perhaps look at running these with diesel trains if feasible (I’m not sure how easy that would be to arrange, let alone at fairly short notice). Failing that, work with TPE to put in place something similar.

Is, in my view, the correct answer.

Given how often this seems to happen Contingency Plan S should be in place, with Preston crews working to Carlisle and back even if it means some thinning out southbound.

 

[Bald Rick]

Yellow warnings are a bit "the weather is going to be a bit rubbish" and not a really serious thing unless you're planning on going up a mountain in which case this weekend might not be a good choice.

Indeed. My mountain plans for this weekend were not a good choice and have now been abandoned.

and this is the wind as well; place the spot anywhere in the country and it'll give you the wind strength and direction for that specific location live; using the two sites together should help greatly with travel planning:

windy.com is better, not least because you can change the altitude for the windspeed and get (modelled) actuals and forecasts at various flight levels. For example at FL390 it is 100kts NW over my house, and well over 100kts SW all the way from just off Newfoundland to the UK.

Avanti routinely cancel north of Preston when it's safe to run to Lancaster or Carlisle because it's too much faff for them to taxi Glasgow crews down.

If there’s an Amber weather warning on sufficient to be worried about putting your colleagues and passengers in harms way on the WCML, then putting your colleagues in a taxi on the parallel M74 / A74(M) is a similar decision.

I've subsequently used another analogue method to establish whether or not it has been raining heavily or not. I went outside and got wet rather quickly.

ah, but how wet is wet?

 

[Carlisle]

Given how many staff have caring responsibilities and other commitments outside work I think it's unlikely that a cadre of crew willing to spend a couple of days working out of a Carlisle hotel could be recruited

Or perhaps they could given Virgin Cross Country had a significant number of overnight lodging turns for train crew in the early days of their Franchise.

 

[ainsworth74]

If you use it regularly you get a feel for how small patches of rain move and develop or dwindle away. I suggest that you try it going backwards at maximum resolution for where you are, and then decide whether it is more likely to be right than a simple assertion from someone looking out of their window. Certainly this morning the radar has shown slightly heavier rain up towards Leek, but still nothing over 4 mm/h. There were a couple of fleeting patches of "up to 8" over Northwich at about 1055, but nothing like heavy rain: the next band goes from 8 to 16 and definitely counts as "heavy!"

Yes, funnily enough as someone who goes for walks not infrequently I do actually have some familiarity with rain radars including their foibles. Particularly those highlighted by @Class172. However your efforts at explanation are appreciated. But, I really must emphasise. Right now the Met Office says that we had light rain in Middlesbrough of a maximum of 1-2mm. However observation of colleagues who went out to get lunch and came back drenched suggests that it was not light rain that they encountered.

Nobody disputes the utility of rain radars and their usefulness in planning your activities. Nor how there can be a knack to reading them to get the best usage as a member of the public out of the information provided. But I'm afraid we are very much in if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck and takes to water like a duck, it's probably duck territory.

If @Bantamzen saw heavy rain outside their window. I think we can safely say that there was heavy rain in their vicinity. It might have been quite localised. But it existed and no amount of explaining rain radars is going to change what they observed. Just as what I observed isn't going to change just because the rain radar was reporting light rain only.

 

[Class15]

Anyway, back on topic after our North Lanarkshire diversion, it's getting wet and windy up here already. However, the reason I'm reasonably confident about 4S88 running, as it nearly always does, is that I had a similar issue with Avanti last year, when I was dumped in Preston due to high winds. Rather than get a dodgy Uber up the M6 to Edinburgh with random strangers and a driver half asleep, I opted for a hotel, which was conveniently located by the WCML north of the station. 4S88 rumbled through behind a pair of skodas right on time.

I have known 4S88 to terminate at Crewe B.H. if there is a problem north of there.

 

[VItraveller]

Silly question perhaps but are Avanti services from Birmingham to London likely to be effected tomorrow?

 

[D1511]

I have known 4S88 to terminate at Crewe B.H. if there is a problem north of there.

True, but it needs to be a bigger problem than a bit of wind. It terminated there when the tree was down at Lockerbie recently for example, but I'll wager it's running tonight.

 

[transportphoto]

Or perhaps they could given Virgin Cross Country had a significant number of overnight lodging turns for train crew in the early days of their Franchise.

The lodging agreement is probably long gone and would unlikely be relevant the West Coast franchise. We cannot expect colleagues to drop everything on a whim… it’s simply not what they’re paid for.

 

[styles]

Indeed. My mountain plans for this weekend were not a good choice and have now been abandoned.

130mph forecast on Ben Nevis. Sounds fantastic.

 

[D1511]

130mph forecast on Ben Nevis. Sounds fantastic.

My mate's Corbett compleation on Mull tomorrow has understandably been cancelled......

 

[Mike395]

Silly question perhaps but are Avanti services from Birmingham to London likely to be effected tomorrow?

Any that run through to/from Scotland might, but the Blackpools and Birmingham starters should be fine unless the worst of the weather is further south than forecast.