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The Labour Party under Andy Burnham

brad465

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Sadiq Khan mentioned on LBC he wants to run for a fourth term which he's probably win if the other parties keep putting up sub par candidates.
While I've generally approved of him, I think a 4th term is stretching it and could well prove a burden on his campaign, as voters tire of the same party/person running things above a certain timeframe. I think three 4-year terms or two 5-year terms is enough for all senior offices.
 
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This was the root cause of the equal pay issues at Birmingham City Council, where bonuses and pay rises were given to people in predominantly male jobs (refuse collectors, etc) but were not given to people in predominantly female jobs (teaching assistants, admin staff, care workers, etc). Binmen in Birmingham were earning over ten grand a year more than care staff, even though the core skills for both jobs are fundamentally very similar.

Part of that comes down to the difficulties (or not) of recruiting people for particular roles. Refuse collectors have early starts, are out in all weathers, doing a dirty and physically demanding job. That combination of factors means it's not going to be most people's ideal career. If it's not possible to recruit people on the pay offered, a higher salary may be needed. It is very difficult to realistically compare one role with another doing something completely different.
 

Tetchytyke

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Part of that comes down to the difficulties (or not) of recruiting people for particular roles. Refuse collectors have early starts, are out in all weathers, doing a dirty and physically demanding job. That combination of factors means it's not going to be most people's ideal career.
Other than being based inside a building, the same applies for care workers. Care work is similarly physically demanding and, often, a dirty job.

It is very difficult to realistically compare one role with another doing something completely different.
It's not that difficult: the women in Birmingham (and Cumbria) won equal pay claims by doing just that.
 

jfollows

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There was what I thought quite an amusing comment on Sky, yesterday I think, in which it was firstly observed that Trump is jealous of Khan having won three consecutive elections and then observed that Trump thought he had done the same.
I have no big problem with Sadiq Khan, he was elected and has generally done what he said he would. Of course there are exceptions to this.
 
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Other than being based inside a building, the same applies for care workers. Care work is similarly physically demanding and, often, a dirty job.


It's not that difficult: the women in Birmingham (and Cumbria) won equal pay claims by doing just that.

Granted, care work is the closest of those you list (and is traditionally badly-paid given what is expected of staff). Teaching assistants and admin staff really are not comparable to either of the other roles.

The fact that they won an equal pay claim really just says something about how the courts and tribunals work - comparing different roles is always going to be highly subjective and different people will have different views on this.

An alternative / additional approach could be to try to break down the stereotypes of 'male' and 'female' roles - but I've not seen any campaigns to recruit more female refuse collectors or male care assistants.
 

Topological

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Part of that comes down to the difficulties (or not) of recruiting people for particular roles. Refuse collectors have early starts, are out in all weathers, doing a dirty and physically demanding job. That combination of factors means it's not going to be most people's ideal career. If it's not possible to recruit people on the pay offered, a higher salary may be needed. It is very difficult to realistically compare one role with another doing something completely different.
It is interesting that the low pay in the care sector is often maintained by increasing the supply of workers. Some of the new immigration laws will provide a sharp shock to the care industry. Skills will be in much shorter supply.

Meanwhile, the same cannot be said for refuse collectors. Unless there is something else going on, you do not see refuse collection companies complaining when work visas will be harder to acquire.

I fully agree you should not compare one role with another. Some might argue the rulings in those cases are the sort of rulings that inspire a belief of bias in the agenda of law-makers. Within role discrimination exists and needs eliminating first.
 

Thirteen

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While I've generally approved of him, I think a 4th term is stretching it and could well prove a burden on his campaign, as voters tire of the same party/person running things above a certain timeframe. I think three 4-year terms or two 5-year terms is enough for all senior offices.
The question is who could be his successor or be seen as a viable alternative.
 

brad465

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It would need to be a London MP with a high profile, so it could only be either Keir Starmer or Diane Abbott :lol:
I can think of several more London Labour MPs with high profiles, though they are either unsuitable or probably not interested in that career path:

-David Lammy
-Steve Reed
-Wes Streeting
-John McDonnell
-Rosena Allin-Khan
-Ellie Reeves (Rachel's sister)
-Emily Thornberry
-Meg Hillier
-Dawn Butler
-Barry Gardiner

Out of those I think Rosena Allin-Khan would have the best chance: doesn't seem to be valued in government and reasonably popular. The main caveat though is she'd be the second successive MP for Tooting to go for Mayor.
 

cactustwirly

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Those two facts are connected. You can't do Scandinavian style public services on USA levels of taxation (which, when you add in health insurance, is where we are).

Indeed, not including health insurance in the calculation means we are paying a lot less than most think - this is usually at least a couple of hundred a month for an average adult in many countries. There are almost no countries in the world where health insurance is fully included in general taxation, yet we keep it in when comparing our tax burden with other countries.



We clearly do not know that until it is honestly and openly attempted, and an honest and open conversation is had about just how much incapacity benefits, care provision and pensions with the triple lock are now costing. I'm not saying we should cut those things, but with an ageing and less healthy population if we want them we do need to be willing to pay more just for those things, or we switch to means testing them (but the Boomer middle class voters will moan).

Indeed the fundamental problem is dishonesty. We need honest and open conversations about the taxation/public services ratio we should have.

There is definitely an argument for cutting them, the tax burden is currently too high and holding up economic growth.
There are too many people on PIPs that could work, which saves money and increases productivity. Obviously there is a careful balance to be had, you don't want to be cutting too much
 

Thirteen

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I can think of several more London Labour MPs with high profiles, though they are either unsuitable or probably not interested in that career path:

-David Lammy
-Steve Reed
-Wes Streeting
-John McDonnell
-Rosena Allin-Khan
-Ellie Reeves (Rachel's sister)
-Emily Thornberry
-Meg Hillier
-Dawn Butler
-Barry Gardiner

Out of those I think Rosena Allin-Khan would have the best chance: doesn't seem to be valued in government and reasonably popular. The main caveat though is she'd be the second successive MP for Tooting to go for Mayor.
Rosena would be good as she has very little baggage compared to the rest. Florence Eshalomi might be an option as well.
 

TravelDream

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Things like career breaks to have children also have an impact, but this is also where until very recently things were stacked against women. Even when my youngest was born I was entitled to exactly one week's paid paternity leave, so I had to go to work and my wife had to stay at home. This was despite the fact my wife is a more highly qualified professional than I am, and earned more money than I did.

How is this something stacked against women? It could be argued it's worse discrimination against men than it is women.

They are obviously not the exact same job, but jobs which require very very similar skills (e.g. refuse collection versus care work) are paid very differently depending on whether they are traditionally masculine roles or traditionally feminine roles.

In some cases yes, but the courts have often got it wrong on this issue in my opinion.

Take this example.
It's fundamentally much more difficult to fill warehouse roles than shopfront.
Next actually offered all of its shop staff the opportunity to transfer to its warehouse business and take up was incredibly low.
The warehouse staff were basically 50/50 male/female too.
Yet a tribunal found it was discriminatory to pay shop staff and warehouse staff differently.
There's no way this was discriminatory, but tribunal overreach decided it was.
'' Employment: Employment Tribunal Rules That Next Shop Floor Sales Staff Must Be Paid Same Basic Pay As Warehouse Staff ''

The Birmingham case is actually a bit different and I can understand the legal perspective. There the council graded the jobs the same, but paid carers and school cooks a lot less than binmen and binwomen.
The Council in doing so heavily incriminated itself and essentially put the noose around their own neck.
The failure there was dragging the case through appeal after appeal increasing the cost to the Council dramatically when there was very little to no chance of winning.
Sadly, local media in the UK is so crap, those people have never been held to account.
 
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Yew

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Remembering that there is a dedicated thread for more detailed discussion on ID schemes.

Do we think it is possible that Digital ID might become Starmers "Poll Tax" moment?
 
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Remembering that there is a dedicated thread for more detailed discussion on ID schemes.

Do we think it is possible that Digital ID might become Starmers "Poll Tax" moment?

I hope so! His approach to government seems to be 'when in a hole, keep digging'!
 

Topological

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I hope so! His approach to government seems to be 'when in a hole, keep digging'!
images

Alt Text: Kier Starmer and Australian PM Anthony Albanese

Perhaps Kier believes that if you dig deep enough you end up in Australia. Would that this week were evidence that he is already there.
 

ainsworth74

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As a reminder there is a dedicated thread to discuss ID cards which can be found here. If you wish to discuss the wider aspects of the announced policy that is the thread to do it in. For this thread the only relevance ID cards have is in the very narrow political implications for the Government and whether the seeming unpopularity of the policy has implications for the stability of Kier Starmer's premiership or the Labour government more generally. Anything beyond that (such as whether the policy is sensible, whether ID cards are sensible in and of themselves, etc etc) is subject for linked thread.
 

Topological

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Looks like life is getting desperate in Labour HQ. We will see how it is phrased later today, but when you start focusing on "we are the only hope for unity" as the best reason to vote Labour then the game is lost.

For too long now the argument has boiled down to "it is _ist to vote for someone else", often including it being _ist to vote for the Nasty Tories. It worked for a while with New Labour, but it is time Labour came up with an actual vision of what they are, rather than what they think they are not.

Standing in Liverpool, Sir Kier has an excellent opportunity to announce an investment strategy for transformational regional growth. He won't.
 

brad465

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Looks like life is getting desperate in Labour HQ. We will see how it is phrased later today, but when you start focusing on "we are the only hope for unity" as the best reason to vote Labour then the game is lost.

For too long now the argument has boiled down to "it is _ist to vote for someone else", often including it being _ist to vote for the Nasty Tories. It worked for a while with New Labour, but it is time Labour came up with an actual vision of what they are, rather than what they think they are not.

Standing in Liverpool, Sir Kier has an excellent opportunity to announce an investment strategy for transformational regional growth. He won't.
This is FPTP more than anything: there is more value in attacking others than promoting yourself when we have a voting system that encourages "voting against" something more than for something.
 

DarloRich

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Standing in Liverpool, Sir Kier has an excellent opportunity to announce an investment strategy for transformational regional growth. He won't.
He cant do that though can he? He is trapped by the financial situation we find ourselves in - I am sure you will say he should just print the money ( and he could do that) but it would be disastrous financially with the markets and with our debt standing which might make inflation & tax take higher which impacts the poorest the most.

I would LOVE to see that investment, truly, I just don't think it is achievable in the current climate. That's before you look at the politics. Labour governments are paranoid about leaving themselves open to attacks from the Tory press on economic mismanagement. That kind thing spooks the middle ground that Labour need to win power.
 

Topological

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He cant do that though can he? He is trapped by the financial situation we find ourselves in - I am sure you will say he should just print the money ( and he could do that) but it would be disastrous financially with the markets and with our debt standing which might make inflation & tax take higher which impacts the poorest the most.

I would LOVE to see that investment, truly, I just don't think it is achievable in the current climate. That's before you look at the politics. Labour governments are paranoid about leaving themselves open to attacks from the Tory press on economic mismanagement. That kind thing spooks the middle ground that Labour need to win power.
It is incredibly achievable.

Whilst it is not my economic perspective (I am a small state person), there is complete academic validity to using investment schemes such as HS2 to promote growth. The alternative perspective that all debt is bad has been allowed to dominate discourse, because getting into types of debt muddies the water.

What is not workable is borrowing to pay the welfare bill, and/or not paying down debt when the economy is doing well (see Brown/Blair and the end of boom and bust).

Given Labour also have a platform for tax rises, there is no excuse (except the fact they are Red Tories)

Financial markets are investment-oriented. If the return is there (Which it is on any cost-benefit above 1) then the markets will be fine. It is the lack of willingness to act that creates the issue, the markets are an excuse.
 

DarloRich

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there is complete academic validity to using investment schemes such as HS2 to promote growth.
I think HS2 might be the reason NOT to invest! I do take your point however, I just don't think it is achievable in the current climate. I don't think all debt is bad ( from a governmental stand point certainly) but do think we have a LOT of debt, some of it bad, to deal with.

I would LOVE to see the investment you suggest mind! I do agree with your point about caution. I think the Starmer needs to get more on the front foot, improve his communication style, and go for it a bit! That and fight back in the media a bit!
 

Topological

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I think HS2 might be the reason NOT to invest! I do take your point however, I just don't think it is achievable in the current climate. I don't think all debt is bad ( from a governmental stand point certainly) but do think we have a LOT of debt, some of it bad, to deal with.

I would LOVE to see the investment you suggest mind!
The big issue with HS2 was no one could take ownership of it.

Labour have a unique opportunity to take ownership of the agenda in the very post-industrial areas that Reform polls highly in.

Start with smaller projects that can be clearly enacted by 2029. Get wires to Rochdale, buy Merseyrail some more 777s and bring Wigan and Preston into the network (since he is standing in Liverpool to deliver the speech). Add the extra platforms at Salford Central. Improve frequency on the Blackburn/Burnley/Accrington to Manchester buses. Many small cases where you can say we are making a difference.

Add in some road projects too, improve the M62.

I doubt you can get new DMUs into service by 2029, but if you can then lots more services through the Erewash, capacity between Sheffield and Leeds etc.

Get wires into Temple Meads and add the extra Cardiff trains. Improve commuting on shiny (admittedly repurposed 350/2) EMUs.

Photo opportunities everywhere.

Then get as close as possible to spades in the ground on NPR (a proper one) at Manchester, Liverpool and in Leeds. Even George Osborne knew that there was money in NPR.

The challenge is simply to lead and act while you have the big majority.
 

JamesT

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It is incredibly achievable.

Whilst it is not my economic perspective (I am a small state person), there is complete academic validity to using investment schemes such as HS2 to promote growth. The alternative perspective that all debt is bad has been allowed to dominate discourse, because getting into types of debt muddies the water.

What is not workable is borrowing to pay the welfare bill, and/or not paying down debt when the economy is doing well (see Brown/Blair and the end of boom and bust).

Given Labour also have a platform for tax rises, there is no excuse (except the fact they are Red Tories)

Financial markets are investment-oriented. If the return is there (Which it is on any cost-benefit above 1) then the markets will be fine. It is the lack of willingness to act that creates the issue, the markets are an excuse.
If you’re issuing debt, you need someone willing to buy it. Although there may be good solid reasons for investing, eventually the markets can’t stomach it or demand excessively high returns. The UK has noticeably higher bond yields than many comparable countries.
Labour may have stood on a platform of tax rises (apart from the ones they ruled out in the manifesto), but they’re finding it hard to find any that would actually raise significant revenue without significant downsides. The increase in NI has dampened employment and wage rises. If the number one priority of the government is promoting economic growth, choking it off with tax rises is entirely counterproductive.
 

Topological

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If you’re issuing debt, you need someone willing to buy it. Although there may be good solid reasons for investing, eventually the markets can’t stomach it or demand excessively high returns. The UK has noticeably higher bond yields than many comparable countries.
Labour may have stood on a platform of tax rises (apart from the ones they ruled out in the manifesto), but they’re finding it hard to find any that would actually raise significant revenue without significant downsides. The increase in NI has dampened employment and wage rises. If the number one priority of the government is promoting economic growth, choking it off with tax rises is entirely counterproductive.
The markets will stomach investment debt.

If you are looking at 6% (say) then all you require is that the debt is invested into projects which yield higher. Business does that all the time.

The problem with government debt is that some of it services old debt and some goes on day-to-day spending which has 0 yield. That is not the way to run a government.

As I say, I am a small government supporter and would rather create policy that encouraged private firms to deliver big projects, but I am not in government (probably thankfully for most). I am highly qualified in Economics and can say with certainty that the markets will take investment of the type I am suggesting Labour do. ALL that is required is that the investment is ring-fenced and communicated clearly (for example, via tied bonds that have return based on the project).

The "all debt is bad" narrative has been allowed to dominate. But can anyone really imagine a business running on 0 leverage?
 

Sorcerer

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Labour may have stood on a platform of tax rises (apart from the ones they ruled out in the manifesto), but they’re finding it hard to find any that would actually raise significant revenue without significant downsides. The increase in NI has dampened employment and wage rises. If the number one priority of the government is promoting economic growth, choking it off with tax rises is entirely counterproductive.
Labour could always decriminalise/legalise cannabis and use the revenue from the new taxes it would generate that could also help reduce pressures on prisons for anyone serving a sentence for drug-related offences, and as I have also advocated before they could almost certainly try to push through a form of land value tax that would also go a long way in helping to solve the housing crisis. A sovereign wealth fund might also help long term as well even if the best time for that would've been in the 1980s instead of selling off our national assets (thanks a lot Thatcher).

The problem is that the party and it's leadership are completely lacking in any sort of vision, and at this point I nor many other people don't even know what their goals are anymore beyond more competently managing the decline of the UK and trying to keep Reform out of power. It's as if Keir Starmer has gotten so used to working within the system as both a lawyer and MP that he's forgotten that there different ways of doing things.

The "all debt is bad" narrative has been allowed to dominate. But can anyone really imagine a business running on 0 leverage?
The "all debt is bad" narrative is definitely one that needs to go, but the debt we're incurring is almost certainly bad because it's being used on everyday spending and paying off some existing debt already. Plus if I were a foreign lender or investor I'd have absolutely no confidence in actually getting a return on my investment because even if we borrowed to invest in infrastructure like HS2 we've proven that we're not capable of delivering it on-time and within budget, so we don't inspire confidence on the international moneylending stage.
 

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The "all debt is bad" narrative is definitely one that needs to go, but the debt we're incurring is almost certainly bad because it's being used on everyday spending and paying off some existing debt already. Plus if I were a foreign lender or investor I'd have absolutely no confidence in actually getting a return on my investment because even if we borrowed to invest in infrastructure like HS2 we've proven that we're not capable of delivering it on-time and within budget, so we don't inspire confidence on the international moneylending stage.

As in personal finance, debt is good for capital purchases (houses, cars, railways, tram systems...) and bad for operational expenses (having to borrow because you can't afford the gas bill), though a small amount of the latter is workable in the form of e.g. spreading insurance costs through the year or evening out your gas bill so you pay the same amount a month despite using almost none in July and loads in December (which is how almost everyone pays for energy), plus you sometimes need to use it in emergency, a personal example perhaps being needing expensive home or car repairs, or a Government version being something like COVID. I would personally say that the two line up pretty well in terms of what debt is good and what is bad. Obviously it also needs to be affordable - so overstretching on a mortgage isn't a good thing, for example.

The ideal situation in personal debt is that you always own enough assets to settle the debt if you absolutely need to, i.e. you can sell your house to pay off your mortgage or you can sell your car to pay off your car loan (or just return it if it's a PCP or similar). That isn't so practical for Governments, I suppose.
 

cactustwirly

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Labour could always decriminalise/legalise cannabis and use the revenue from the new taxes it would generate that could also help reduce pressures on prisons for anyone serving a sentence for drug-related offences, and as I have also advocated before they could almost certainly try to push through a form of land value tax that would also go a long way in helping to solve the housing crisis. A sovereign wealth fund might also help long term as well even if the best time for that would've been in the 1980s instead of selling off our national assets (thanks a lot Thatcher).

The problem is that the party and it's leadership are completely lacking in any sort of vision, and at this point I nor many other people don't even know what their goals are anymore beyond more competently managing the decline of the UK and trying to keep Reform out of power. It's as if Keir Starmer has gotten so used to working within the system as both a lawyer and MP that he's forgotten that there different ways of doing things.


The "all debt is bad" narrative is definitely one that needs to go, but the debt we're incurring is almost certainly bad because it's being used on everyday spending and paying off some existing debt already. Plus if I were a foreign lender or investor I'd have absolutely no confidence in actually getting a return on my investment because even if we borrowed to invest in infrastructure like HS2 we've proven that we're not capable of delivering it on-time and within budget, so we don't inspire confidence on the international moneylending stage.

The party doesn't have the political will to do what is necessary to grow the economy. The party is stuck in their left wing ideology of high taxes and wasteful public sector spending which is bad for growth.

They do need to make cuts to spending, particularly the very large amount on benefits. Encourage more people to work and cut taxes like employers NI, corporation tax etc.
Invest in capital projects to encourage growth in the North and Midlands etc

The next budget will just be tax rises, low growth, stagnant economy and high borrowing costs
 

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