Dartmoor Line (Crediton - Okehampton) Reopening - Early Impact Evaluation Published

[zwk500]

Following on from other threads on the interim reporting, the DfT has now published a report evaluating the early Impact of the line reopening.

LINK: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/dartmoor-line-evaluation-of-re-opening

The summary is that the line is being well used and well received, with both locals and tourists. There are negative impacts to the local bus demand and education enrolment in Okehampton itself linked to the easier access to Exeter.
The line was delivered for slightly less than forecast (£51m vs £56.6m) which is credited to Project Speed, and at the moment is running an operating surplus.

Perhaps most critically for forum users, is the following paragraph on demand in the executive summary:

Comparison of actual and forecast passenger demand (as contained in the business case for the Line) on the Dartmoor Line shows that the forecasts under-estimated demand the first 2 full years of the Line’s operation with total demand 47% higher than forecast over this period. However, since November 2023 actual demand by period has typically been marginally lower than forecast. The large variance in the first two years is primarily due to the forecasting methodology assuming more conservative demand ramp-up factors. It is currently too early to draw conclusions, and a focus needs to be maintained on growing demand if the business case forecasts are to be achieved in the long-term.

The overall indications at this time point to the line being a very solid success.

(Apologies if I've missed an existing thread)

3-years Thread:

Okehampton - 3 Years On

The 1 year on thread is closed so here is a new one. Predictably, even more success and doom laden predictions wrong....again. https://dartmoorline.com/2023/11/celebrations-in-okehampton-as-more-than-550000-journeys-made-in-first-two-years-of-dartmoor-line-reopening/ The previously...

www.railforums.co.uk

1-year Thread:

Okehampton - Exeter open a year- success?

It's been a year since "levelling up" reopened the 16 odd miles from Exeter to Okehampton. Passenger numbers seem up, has it been a success for all concerned?

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[devon_belle]

I agree with your overall assessment. The reopening is a success story, and marginally lower demand than forecast shouldn't be anything to worry about. I look forward to seeing how future developments affect the growth of the line.

 

[Sir Felix Pole]

As to the 'negatives' Okehampton teenagers being able to seek higher quality education in Exeter sounds like a benefit of the line to me. Yes, the bus service has been affected, but if rail is the better option for through journeys so what? The bus service has been adjusted to run through all the intermediate villages (which the former intermediate stations on the line were hopelessly remote from) so it is the best of both worlds.

Tavistock next, then?

 

[zwk500]

As to the 'negatives' Okehampton teenagers being able to seek higher quality education in Exeter sounds like a benefit of the line to me.

The negative impacted highlighted was that it may make school closures more likely if enrollment dropped. I agree though its heavily offset by the access to Exeter.

Yes, the bus service has been affected, but if rail is the better option for through journeys so what? The bus service has been adjusted to run through all the intermediate villages (which the former intermediate stations on the line were hopelessly remote from) so it is the best of both worlds.

Not for people that only have the bus option, if that bus now requires additional subsidy and is therefore under additional threat.

Tavistock next, then?

I'd say Fawley next, given that this was a recondition of an existing branch line not a rebuild of a lifted one.

 

[John R]

The comment about passenger numbers slightly lagging the prediction recently is worth exploring, by looking at the graph attached. It shows that in recent months demand has increased to a point whereby it is now matching the prediction. The question is whether a further step up in numbers is expected. I note that the profile over years 1 to 4 is put at 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%. Given that the graph ends at the completion of year 3, it's not unreasonable to assume that the expected number will increase to around 36,000 going forward. That would indicate another shortfall, although the opeining of Okehampton Interchange early next year should provide a significant boost to passenger numbers.

 

[dk1]

The comment about passenger numbers slightly lagging the prediction recently is worth exploring, by looking at the graph attached. It shows that in recent months demand has increased to a point whereby it is now matching the prediction. The question is whether a further step up in numbers is expected. I note that the profile over years 1 to 4 is put at 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%. Given that the graph ends at the completion of year 3, it's not unreasonable to assume that the expected number will increase to around 36,000 going forward. That would indicate another shortfall, although the opeining of Okehampton Interchange early next year should provide a significant boost to passenger numbers.

View attachment 189140

Very interesting. Thank you.

 

[zwk500]

The comment about passenger numbers slightly lagging the prediction recently is worth exploring, by looking at the graph attached. It shows that in recent months demand has increased to a point whereby it is now matching the prediction. The question is whether a further step up in numbers is expected. I note that the profile over years 1 to 4 is put at 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%. Given that the graph ends at the completion of year 3, it's not unreasonable to assume that the expected number will increase to around 36,000 going forward. That would indicate another shortfall, although the opeining of Okehampton Interchange early next year should provide a significant boost to passenger numbers.

View attachment 189140

The particularly interesting thing about that is that if you brought the demand ramp-up forwards a year (i.e. just started at 50% then to 75% then 100%) it would have largely tracked with what happened. The ramp-up factors to be assumed in demand forecasting are specified in TAG, and this lends weight to revisiting them in light of major changes to things like publicity and journey planning since they were specified.

 

[John R]

Except the most recent year would have been well under the expectation of 36k.

 

[zwk500]

Except the most recent year would have been well under the expectation of 36k.

Or whatever length the ramp up periods were (is it Quarters rather than full-year?)

 

[sh24]

The most encouraging part is the operating surplus.

I wonder if demand is being surpressed by capacity challenges?

 

[tbtc]

The particularly interesting thing about that is that if you brought the demand ramp-up forwards a year (i.e. just started at 50% then to 75% then 100%) it would have largely tracked with what happened

I think the Tweedbank branch and others saw above expected passenger numbers in the first couple of years

However, demand on such lines was significantly more in line with expectations in the medium/longer term, suggesting that real life passengers are a lot quicker to adapt to new services than the forecasters assumed

So when a line opens, there appears to be this initial boom, more passengers than were assumed, it gets hyped a lot, but this is more because existing formulae are assuming it'll take five or ten years for people to adapt, but really they adjust to a new service much sooner, so the forecasts are generally good?

 

[Bald Rick]

The particularly interesting thing about that is that if you brought the demand ramp-up forwards a year (i.e. just started at 50% then to 75% then 100%) it would have largely tracked with what happened. The ramp-up factors to be assumed in demand forecasting are specified in TAG, and this lends weight to revisiting them in light of major changes to things like publicity and journey planning since they were specified.

Exactly. I have explained many times on these pages across many reopening threads that the ‘demand exceeding forecasts’ is usually explained by the early years growth being quicker than the arbitary factors required to be applied in the business case. The other factor is new development not expected at the time the business case was developed.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Sep 2025 ==

So when a line opens, there appears to be this initial boom, more passengers than were assumed, it gets hyped a lot, but this is more because existing formulae are assuming it'll take five or ten years for people to adapt, but really they adjust to a new service much sooner, so the forecasts are generally good?

There’s another factor, albeit one that didn‘t apply to Okehampton.

Many of these projects are delivered later than forecast. Prospective passengers make life choices (principally where to live and work) based on the promise of new stations etc. So do property developers, and businesses. The demand supressisonfactors in the early years post opening are designed to reflect that.

However this relocation activity happens in line with original forecast dates, but then with the opening delayed it effectively means that the line already has (say) year 2 demand in year 1.

The best recent example of this is the Elizabeth Line, but it happens everywhere.

 

[John R]

Or whatever length the ramp up periods were (is it Quarters rather than full-year?)

Full years, though the first year was split into two because of the initial two hourly service, with a lower prediction during that period.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Sep 2025 ==

I think the Tweedbank branch and others saw above expected passenger numbers in the first couple of years

However, demand on such lines was significantly more in line with expectations in the medium/longer term, suggesting that real life passengers are a lot quicker to adapt to new services than the forecasters assumed

So when a line opens, there appears to be this initial boom, more passengers than were assumed, it gets hyped a lot, but this is more because existing formulae are assuming it'll take five or ten years for people to adapt, but really they adjust to a new service much sooner, so the forecasts are generally good?

Yes, that seems to be a common theme and I think that’s a fair summary of performance both short and medium term.

 

[brad465]

Another benefit of the Dartmoor line is the increased service frequency and in turn patronage at Crediton. Both Exeter Central and St Davids have seen numbers travelling from Crediton more than double vs pre-covid, with several other destinations beyond Exeter seeing marked increases.

 

[DDB]

I will admit to being surprised and impressed that the demand forecasting is that accurate where it actually counts. I assume decisions by the grown ups are based on what the predicted final numbers are rather than the temporary transition period.

For reasons of rigiour the model ought to be adjusted to include a faster ramp up but as someone who is generally a fan of new additions to the network I would rather a string of good news stories from the early years to encourage other schemes!

 

[dk1]

Another benefit of the Dartmoor line is the increased service frequency and in turn patronage at Crediton. Both Exeter Central and St Davids have seen numbers travelling from Crediton more than double vs pre-covid, with several other destinations beyond Exeter seeing marked increases.

That single line to Cowley Bridge Jcn is a busy little stretch of railway now both in terms of trains and passengers carried.

 

[zwk500]

The best recent example of this is the Elizabeth Line, but it happens everywhere.

Northumberland Line will be interesting to see. Especially with a lot of things being bandied about around how accurate the predictions are.

I will admit to being surprised and impressed that the demand forecasting is that accurate where it actually counts.

Considering that the railway industry has been forecasting demand for around 200 years, is it that surprising? There's a lot of companies, the government and several universities involved in developing forecasting methodologies.

I assume decisions by the grown ups are based on what the predicted final numbers are rather than the temporary transition period.

The decision of the minister to authorise the scheme will be based on the total appraised predicted impact, so includes the ramp-up and then 60 years of demand growth. And there'll be sensitivity tests around areas of concern to give the minister an idea of the range of potential outcomes. Things like 'what if demand is 10% higher or lower than expected?'

For reasons of rigiour the model ought to be adjusted to include a faster ramp up but as someone who is generally a fan of new additions to the network I would rather a string of good news stories from the early years to encourage other schemes!

Both can happen at the same time - the good news will be in the actual numbers (e.g., 50,000 passengers ride line in first 6 months) even if it's in line with the demand ramp-up anyway.

 

[dk1]

Northumberland Line will be interesting to see. Especially with a lot of things being bandied about around how accurate the predictions are.

I used the Northumberland Line on Thursday 18th September and although I expected the trains heading into Newcastle that afternoon to be crowded (they were) as Barcelona was playing United at St James Park that evening it was the 16:17 ex-Newcastle that surprised me. Most seats were taken well before departure time and departed with standing room only and more passengers joined at Manors. Newsham was particularly popular with a stream of passengers heading for the car park. The conductor were constantly up and down the trains I used. I am led to believe the fares on the route are extremely competitive and with three stations still to open it seemed to me it can only be a runaway success.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

That single line to Cowley Bridge Jcn is a busy little stretch of railway now both in terms of trains and passengers carried.

It certainly is, and when added to the junction constraints at Cowley Bridge and the congested platforming at Exeter St David’s, it’s increasingly difficult to plan. Along with the Melksham line and Narroways Hill Jn to Clifton Down, to my mind it’s a no-brainer for future redoubling. The added constraint of Eggesford being remotely controlled from Crediton S.B. (and therefore activities at one location must be time-separated from the other) is another unhelpful limitation.

 

[cjw714]

It certainly is, and when added to the junction constraints at Cowley Bridge and the congested platforming at Exeter St David’s, it’s increasingly difficult to plan. Along with the Melksham line and Narroways Hill Jn to Clifton Down, to my mind it’s a no-brainer for future redoubling. The added constraint of Eggesford being remotely controlled from Crediton S.B. (and therefore activities at one location must be time-separated from the other) is another unhelpful limitation.

Yes, will be interesting to see what happens next. I don't think I was the only one who was sceptical whether re-opening the line to Okehampton was worth the money spent but I am happy to have been proved wrong. With new rolling stock and a new station to come the line is only going to get busier so will be interesting to see if there is any plan to increase the frequency.

 

[Railcar]

With new rolling stock

New rolling stock is badly needed. Having travelled on the Dartmoor line in the year after it opened, to sit in a train from St Davids with the diesel engines grinding away through lovely open countryside and quiet country stations rather spoils the journey. Coming from the land of the third rail where a 377 can swish through Surrey and Sussex and let one concentrate on the scenery, yes, new electric rolling stock is needed for the Dartmoor line.

 

[dk1]

New rolling stock is badly needed. Having travelled on the Dartmoor line in the year after it opened, to sit in a train from St Davids with the diesel engines grinding away through lovely open countryside and quiet country stations rather spoils the journey. Coming from the land of the third rail where a 377 can swish through Surrey and Sussex and let one concentrate on the scenery, yes, new electric rolling stock is needed for the Dartmoor line.

Possible battery technology in years to come but I can’t ever see either Barnstaple or Okehampton lines getting electrified.

 

[brad465]

It certainly is, and when added to the junction constraints at Cowley Bridge and the congested platforming at Exeter St David’s, it’s increasingly difficult to plan. Along with the Melksham line and Narroways Hill Jn to Clifton Down, to my mind it’s a no-brainer for future redoubling. The added constraint of Eggesford being remotely controlled from Crediton S.B. (and therefore activities at one location must be time-separated from the other) is another unhelpful limitation.

I can't recall where it is, but I saw a document from either Network Rail and/or GWR, outlining future ambitions, and increasing capacity on the Tarka Line is among them, including dealing with Eggesford, having two platforms at Barnstaple, and allowing Crediton to Colebrooke Jct to be reinstated as double track for both Barnstaple and Okehampton services. I can't recall what plans, if any, were stated for Crediton-Exeter, though if 2tph to Barnstaple and at least 1tph to Okehampton are desired, they'd need more double track somewhere along there I suspect.

 

[dk1]

I can't recall where it is, but I saw a document from either Network Rail and/or GWR, outlining future ambitions, and increasing capacity on the Tarka Line is among them, including dealing with Eggesford, having two platforms at Barnstaple, and allowing Crediton to Colebrooke Jct to be reinstated as double track for both Barnstaple and Okehampton services. I can't recall what plans, if any, were stated for Crediton-Exeter, though if 2tph to Barnstaple and at least 1tph to Okehampton are desired, they'd need more double track somewhere along there I suspect.

There was a recent GWR focus in MR magazine where Mark Hopwood spoke about aspirations for the route.

 

[DelW]

New rolling stock is badly needed. Having travelled on the Dartmoor line in the year after it opened, to sit in a train from St Davids with the diesel engines grinding away through lovely open countryside and quiet country stations rather spoils the journey. Coming from the land of the third rail where a 377 can swish through Surrey and Sussex and let one concentrate on the scenery, yes, new electric rolling stock is needed for the Dartmoor line.

Taking last Friday as a random example, services seem to have been 2-car 150s all day. Okay, 150s have been reliable workhorses for decades, but they're hardly likely to persuade anyone to swap from a 2020s car by the quality of their passenger environment, seating or general comfort.

When I was in the area last year, Okehampton and Barnstaple services had a mix of stock including Turbos and 158s, but maybe they've been reshuffled elsewhere. The arrival of the 175s at GWR will mean another reshuffle, so hopefully some more comfortable trains will get onto these lines then.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

The challenge at the moment is that to make the Barnstaple line work (crosses at Crediton and Eggesford), Okehampton work (crosses at Crediton) and get both services through to Exeter Central - and then shunt via Exmouth Jn - they aren’t on an even 30-min interval frequency between Exeter and Crediton. So the Cowley B-Crediton single line basically has a quickfire sequence of down/up Barnstaples followed immediately by down/up Okehamptons and then in the intervening period Crediton box deals with the Eggesford cross. So as soon as anything runs late, it snowballs both directly and then indirectly via Eggesford telephone.

 

[positron]

Taking last Friday as a random example, services seem to have been 2-car 150s all day. Okay, 150s have been reliable workhorses for decades, but they're hardly likely to persuade anyone to swap from a 2020s car by the quality of their passenger environment, seating or general comfort.

When I was in the area last year, Okehampton and Barnstaple services had a mix of stock including Turbos and 158s, but maybe they've been reshuffled elsewhere. The arrival of the 175s at GWR will mean another reshuffle, so hopefully some more comfortable trains will get onto these lines then.

I'm pretty sure the plan is 175s on the okehampton line. So that should help increase the passenger numbers a bit too.

 

[Sir Felix Pole]

The Okehampton line track between Crediton and Coleford Jcn. was not relaid as part of the reopening - it always remained with BR/RT/NR - and is currently a slow trundle on jointed track. Hopefully this can be resolved as part of a genuine redoubling of this section. Restoring the second platform at Yeoford is an issue with problems of access to resolve. The 'tree tunnel' is also getting completely out of hand now, which doesn't help for admiring the views.

 

[grahamshevlin]

The Okehampton line track between Crediton and Coleford Jcn. was not relaid as part of the reopening - it always remained with BR/RT/NR - and is currently a slow trundle on jointed track. Hopefully this can be resolved as part of a genuine redoubling of this section. Restoring the second platform at Yeoford is an issue with problems of access to resolve. The 'tree tunnel' is also getting completely out of hand now, which doesn't help for admiring the views.

The entire Okehampton line from Coleford Junction is a tree tunnel. The images from the early 1970s show the line running through open fields with next to no trackside trees. 50 years of no tree pruning and clearance will do that. Ironically the line suffered from adhesion and braking issues for ballast trains in the 1990s because there were too many leaves being ground into the rail surfaces.