Mass replacement of class 66s

[m79900]

I know we're talking at least a decade, but most of them are over 20 years old so some thought should be given. Replacing circa500 locos all at a similar time will be a colossal project.

 

[birchesgreen]

I suspect many eyes will be on how the Class 99s do.

 

[JamesT]

I know we're talking at least a decade, but most of them are over 20 years old so some thought should be given. Replacing circa500 locos all at a similar time will be a colossal project.

Given the number of locomotives still running on the network that date back to the 1960s, why would being 30 years old make them due for replacement?
The freight companies are commercial entities, they’re only going to undergo an expensive replacement if the new models will be cheaper to run. Is there any indication that the 66s are becoming costly to maintain?

 

[The Planner]

I'd expect the fleet to gradually reduce over a long period of time as locos get cannibalised for parts as with other classes of loco. They certainly aren't going to get replaced en masse.

 

[birchesgreen]

How many of the 480 or whatever it is nowadays are in service at any given time?

 

[HSTEd]

Given that the Class 66s have an irreplaceable exemption from modern emissions standards, it is extremely unlikely that the freight operators will replace them willingly.

The only way they are ever replaced is if decarbonisation proceeds towards a state imposed diesel ban on the railway.

 

[gg1]

Given that the Class 66s have an irreplaceable exemption from modern emissions standards, it is extremely unlikely that the freight operators will replace them willingly.

The only way they are ever replaced is if decarbonisation proceeds towards a state imposed diesel ban on the railway.

My thoughts exactly.

In the absence of such a decarbonisation process, I fully expect significant number of 66s to still be trundling around the network at least until the 2050s.

 

[Rail Quest]

I suspect many eyes will be on how the Class 99s do.

For sure. With GBRf onto the all important loaded diesel tests, this is make or break for both the class 99 and 66. If the diesel performance is close enough to notch 7 in a shed (which, I believe, is often the maximum used for a lot of 66 operations), then the flakes will theoretically be able to operate most of the moves GBRf operate.

What's worth mentioning is that Network Rail, as part of the upcoming ECML timetable change, have got moves specifically timed for flakes that (I'm assuming) can't be operated by sheds. If this means GBRf have a significant advantage regarding pathing, then I don't see why Freightliner wouldn't place a major order for the class or a similar spec. The project may be costing GBRf and Beacon Rail a lot in terms of both up front and operational costs, but if the locos give them a compelling pathing advantage, the costs could get offset by increased business, perhaps won from other operators (no doubt a scary prospect for the main players).

Of the total sheds operated in the UK, about half are with DB if I'm not mistaken and I can't see them investing anything in new locomotives. But for the other UK-based sheds, the class 99s are at least the first real opportunity to break the class 66 dominance in the industry.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I know we're talking at least a decade, but most of them are over 20 years old so some thought should be given. Replacing circa500 locos all at a similar time will be a colossal project.

Even if there was mass replacement, I would do 100 per year and take 5 years. No need to rush imo

 

[Class15]

What's worth mentioning is that Network Rail, as part of the upcoming ECML timetable change, have got moves specifically timed for flakes that (I'm assuming) can't be operated by sheds.

I’d be very surprised - I am doubtful the 99s will be available in large enough numbers by December.

If this means GBRf have a significant advantage regarding pathing

Don’t forget that Freightliner and DRS also have electric or bi-mode locomotives that are very efficient for pathing under the wires.

 

[2001olib]

I’d be very surprised - I am doubtful the 99s will be available in large enough numbers by December.

Don’t forget that Freightliner and DRS also have electric or bi-mode locomotives that are very efficient for pathing under the wires.

How often do the 88's actually operate on diesel. Is it just used for shunting in non electrified yards?
Then freightliner run into the same problem either needed conventional full powered diesels to continue the train the its destination or to be shunted. Then requiring extra crew and extra locomotives, making it operational inefficient. Negating most benefit to the extra performance of an electric locomotive versus a 66/70 (when runinning under the wires)

 

[Class15]

How often do the 88's actually operate on diesel. Is it just used for shunting in non electrified yards?

88s normally seem to use diesel on nuclear flask trains and into Tilbury2 terminal which is unwired.

Then freightliner run into the same problem either needed conventional full powered diesels to continue the train the its destination or to be shunted. Then requiring extra crew and extra locomotives, making it operational inefficient. Negating most benefit to the extra performance of an electric locomotive versus a 66/70 (when runinning under the wires)

Agreed, but its worth remembering that most Freightliner paths out of Felixstowe towards London have the stop at Ipswich built into the schedule anyway, and it likely wouldn’t be that easy to change the paths.

 

[Rail Quest]

I’d be very surprised - I am doubtful the 99s will be available in large enough numbers by December.

It might be that they're converting paths to use the flakes gradually once available from the new timetable. Would definitely be interesting to see.

 

[EyeKay]

Even if there was mass replacement, I would do 100 per year and take 5 years. No need to rush imo

Would any manufacturer be able to deliver faster than that anyway?

 

[popeter45]

Would any manufacturer be able to deliver faster than that anyway?

500 would be a big enough order that it could justify expanding production beyond Valencia to meet such a timescale
it took Siemens about 10 years to build about 1000 Vectrons so 100/year is doable at scales like this

but also for such an Order, even Siemens or Alstom could be persuadable to look at UK gauged versions of Vectron/Traxx

 

[43096]

500 would be a big enough order that it could justify expanding production beyond Valencia to meet such a timescale
it took Siemens about 10 years to build about 1000 Vectrons so 100/year is doable at scales like this

but also for such an Order, even Siemens or Alstom could be persuadable to look at UK gauged versions of Vectron/Traxx

Siemens are building over 250 Vectrons per year now - it's a highly standardised product, built on continuous production lines and that delivers on time or early for its customers. That is not conducive to building a bespoke design for a small, dysfunctional market off the north west coast of Europe. Note that Class 66 production ran over around 17 years, and was characterised by smaller order sizes (anything from five up to around 15 excepting the EWS (over) order). The market is for a Co-Co loco, too, when Vectron and TRAXX are Bo-Bo as standard.

 

[HSTEd]

For 500 units you would likely get bids from suppliers all over the world.

CRRC or one of the big Japanese plants could probably build far more than 100 units per year.

 

[43096]

For 500 units you would likely get bids from suppliers all over the world.

CRRC or one of the big Japanese plants could probably build far more than 100 units per year.

But you aren’t going to have an order placed for 500 units at once.