How could rail capacity to Gatwick Airport be increased?

[brad465]

Thameslink already has 8tph at Gatwick Airport, though currently 4tph are via Quarry and 4tph via Redhill. I doubt it would be possible to move 4tph onto the Quarry line.

I am in favour of pulling Thameslink out of Rainham, especially since the Elizabeth Line opened. But where is the path for them through East Croydon and Gatwick?

One problem with Thameslink not going to Rainham is Southeastern would need to take over the service, but they may not have the rolling stock to do so prior to a new fleet order.

I would say the Windmill Bridge Jct and East Croydon remodelling needs to happen to support Gatwick, but it will be a costly (both financially and in terms of disruption while completed) process.

For the local service provision to Gatwick, the North Downs' line needs BEMUs of 4-6 car length minimum at 2-3tph frequency, while Ashford/Tonbridge-Gatwick should have at least 1tph. In this instance Redhill station could do with a new bay platform on the east side, roughly where the car park is, that allows services to/from Tonbridge to reverse without blocking the rest of the station.

 

[Magdalia]

this announcement is the only opportunity to "dare to think big".

This is certainly not an opportunity to think big.

The airport are proposing to spend £2.2bn in total, that doesn't buy much new railway.

 

[JonathanH]

The proposal would significantly speed journeys from the West of England and South Wales to Gatwick, and create a market for Tonbridge/Tunbridge Wells, Ashford and East Kent (possibly even Medway) direct to Gatwick, who currently have to travel by car (there is no longer even a direct coach service). Any improvements to more local movements would be collateral.

The catchment is way too small and disparate for any enhancement of journeys from Kent to Gatwick using the existing lines to be funded. Not all the traffic arriving at Gatwick from the eastern side of the M25 is coming from Tonbridge, Tunbridge Wells, Medway and Ashford, but instead the more populous places further round the M25 which enhancing Tonbridge to Redhill services simply doesn't address.

In this instance Redhill station could do with a new bay platform on the east side, roughly where the car park is, that allows services to/from Tonbridge to reverse without blocking the rest of the station.

The current plans for Redhill station redevelopment will make that a whole lot more unlikely.

 

[MotCO]

I am in favour of pulling Thameslink out of Rainham, especially since the Elizabeth Line opened. But where is the path for them through East Croydon and Gatwick?

Is the junction north of East Croydon station the pinch-point restricting the number of trains per hour to Gatwick? If so, is there a workable solution to increase capacity, e.g. flyover? Could this be funded by Gatwick Airport?

 

[cle]

The current plans for Redhill station redevelopment will make that a whole lot more unlikely.

What are these? I thought Redhill was fairly 'set' after platform 0 but would be great to see a more ambitious project.

It is unfortunate that more can't be done with the Redhill-Tonbridge line, especially as relates to Gatwick expansion. I think services are also unreliable and infrequent. You would need a solid 2tph between Gatwick/Redhill and Tonbridge to attract airport users (and workers) - even if 1tph went to Maidstone and 1tph to Ashford, as one example.

But yes the obvious growth comes from 4 Gat Ex (extend the other two to Three Bridges at least), all 12 car ops where feasible... and then probably simplifying GatEx/Southern into a metro frequency (keep the branding but name only, not premium fares or access).

Maybe a third North Downs one day, if needed...? Add a stopper to Guildford, and extend one faster to Didcot and Oxford maybe.

 

[brad465]

Is the junction north of East Croydon station the pinch-point restricting the number of trains per hour to Gatwick? If so, is there a workable solution to increase capacity, e.g. flyover? Could this be funded by Gatwick Airport?

The junction already has some flyover moves, however not every frequent move is grade-separated and some signal sections are too short to avoid the longest trains occupying two blocks at once. East Croydon itself has also been subject to proposals to relocate slightly further north with more platforms.

 

[JonathanH]

What are these? I thought Redhill was fairly 'set' after platform 0 but would be great to see a more ambitious project.

The plan to build flats on the car park at the front, and a drop off zone / new entrance at the rear. No plans for ambitious track work, just building work on the front and rear of the station that might prevent it in the future.
https://reigate-banstead.moderngov.co.uk/mgAi.aspx?ID=11587

Phased redevelopment of Site A comprising up to 255 residential dwellings (Class C3 use) in two buildings ranging from 10-15 storeys and 7-14 storeys, associated car parking; cycle parking; flexible Class E uses at ground floor, partial demolition, refurbishment and extension to the existing Site A station entrance building with concourse. Demolition of vacant buildings associated with station on Site B. Replacement surface station car and cycle parking and taxi-drop off on Site B with a refurbished and extended Site B station entrance. Together with new public realm, hard and soft landscaping improvements, new access and servicing arrangements, plant, substation and associated works across Site A and Site B.

 

[Magdalia]

If so, is there a workable solution to increase capacity, e.g. flyover? Could this be funded by Gatwick Airport?

That would probably cost more than moving the runway!

 

[DG85]

Is the junction north of East Croydon station the pinch-point restricting the number of trains per hour to Gatwick? If so, is there a workable solution to increase capacity, e.g. flyover? Could this be funded by Gatwick Airport?

There’s actually a project called CARS (Croydon Area Remodelling Scheme) that’s currently shelved due to lack of funding which is aimed at improving the bottleneck around the Selhurst Triangle and rebuild of East Croydon station. This was meant to help increase capacity and ease congestion on the Brighton Mainline.

 

[MotCO]

That would probably cost more than moving the runway!

Ah, but if you improve the Thameslink capacity, could Luton be used to mop up the capacity at Gatwick Airport instead of building a second runway? A bit tongue in check, but is it a cheaper alternative?

 

[Deepgreen]

This is certainly not an opportunity to think big.

The airport are proposing to spend £2.2bn in total, that doesn't buy much new railway.

I'll be amazed if it gets anywhere near even covering the runway works!

 

[cle]

The plan to build flats on the car park at the front, and a drop off zone / new entrance at the rear. No plans for ambitious track work, just building work on the front and rear of the station that might prevent it in the future.
https://reigate-banstead.moderngov.co.uk/mgAi.aspx?ID=11587

Thanks for sharing... good to see TOD so close to a very connected station, but it would be great to consider (encourage) improvements as part of that.

It's quite a horrible layout and I would think a second wide island on the eastern side (instead of the through lines) - wide enough for a south-facing bay even... but with two 12-car through platforms also - would be more useful. Plus trackwork to make P1 a through route, and with more space before the

You'd go from 3 through, 1 'bay' to 5 through and 1 bay - and a lot more flexibility. P1 could still be used for North Down reversals, but also more (zero could too or be a through Reigate/TL bi-di) - and the new island eastern bay could do similar for Gatwick-Tonbridge, in theory... p2 main up, p (new throughs) as 2 x main downs.

Non-stop passenger services should run via Quarry, so passing services should only be freight (doesn't need 70mph) - and the through roads space could be taken back.

 

[PGAT]

Is the junction north of East Croydon station the pinch-point restricting the number of trains per hour to Gatwick? If so, is there a workable solution to increase capacity, e.g. flyover? Could this be funded by Gatwick Airport?

Yes but it’s not currently running as high capacity as it used to. Fast lines from Selhurst to Victoria see 12tph now as opposed to 16tph

 

[Farigiraf]

A fairly easy win would be to extend the Watford-East Croydon services to Gatwick/Three Bridges, increasing it to half hourly if there's capacity on the West London Line.

 

[Fawkes Cat]

probably simplifying GatEx/Southern into a metro frequency

This looks like a practical way forward - not so much 'look how fast our trains are', but 'look how frequent our trains are' (yes, and maximise them to 12 cars as well)

 

[Magdalia]

Is the junction north of East Croydon station the pinch-point restricting the number of trains per hour to Gatwick?

The bottleneck is between Windmill Bridge Junction and Purley.

A fairly easy win would be to extend the Watford-East Croydon services to Gatwick/Three Bridges

It isn't an easy win if there are no suitable train paths.

Ah, but if you improve the Thameslink capacity, could Luton be used to mop up the capacity at Gatwick Airport instead of building a second runway? A bit tongue in check, but is it a cheaper alternative?

Luton is also expanding see here:

Luton airport expansion approved by government

Annual passenger numbers are due to almost double to 32 million, despite environmental concerns.

www.bbc.co.uk

London Luton Airport said it hoped to almost double annual passenger numbers to 32 million by 2043 after the government approved expansion plans, including a new terminal.

I'm not aware of any rail capacity enhancements being associated with this.

 

[OneOfThe48]

It is unfortunate that more can't be done with the Redhill-Tonbridge line, especially as relates to Gatwick expansion. I think services are also unreliable and infrequent. You would need a solid 2tph between Gatwick/Redhill and Tonbridge to attract airport users (and workers) - even if 1tph went to Maidstone and 1tph to Ashford, as one example.

They are not unreliable, just infrequent.

 

[Brubulus]

The clearest opportunity in my opinion is 12 car Gatwick Express. Secondly, a Strood-Gatwick service is overall probably the best way to maximise connectivity from Kent.

I'll be amazed if it gets anywhere near even covering the runway works!

It's not building a new runway, it's moving the existing one by 12 metres. Even then, it seems excessive unless there are new facilities or taxiways associated with the project.

 

[cle]

Strood-Gatwick service is overall probably the best way to maximise connectivity from Kent.

Do we think the best Gatwick service is a faster one (per the HS1 peak services) - or extending the stopper?

Strood is obviously a 'railhead' for Medway in a sense.... but Gravesend and Ebbsfleet are also interesting markets to consider. It would of course be a very long way around for a St Pancras-Gatwick journey (vs TL!) - but a St Pancras-Maidstone-Tonbridge-Gatwick service would also fold in Stratford/Anglia, and North Kent. I am sure it's a terrible idea but it might hoover up a few different things and new pairs.

A fairly easy win would be to extend the Watford-East Croydon services to Gatwick/Three Bridges, increasing it to half hourly if there's capacity on the West London Line.

They would still have to be stoppers through South London - not necessarily a bad thing as Gatwick traffic comes from everywhere - but slow for the likes of Gatwick-Balham. Also can't be longer than 8 cars, per the broader conversation and maximizing lengths first.

 

[brad465]

The clearest opportunity in my opinion is 12 car Gatwick Express. Secondly, a Strood-Gatwick service is overall probably the best way to maximise connectivity from Kent.

Such a service would probably need to be semi-fast, replacing one of the 2tph stoppers along the Medway Valley line, or managing to slot it in as an additional service. A calling pattern that captures the most populous places would be Strood, Snodland, New Hythe, Maidstone Barracks, Maidstone West, Paddock Wood, Tonbridge, Edenbridge, Redhill and Gatwick. If I've counted correctly this skips 10 stops between Strood and Redhill, then the 3 between Redhill and Gatwick on top.

If more services used Redhill-Tonbridge this line could do with upgrades too, including 3-aspect signalling minimum throughout and removing the farm crossing with a 40mph PSR.

 

[Bald Rick]

Interesting thread.

There will be no funding from Gatwick for any rail infrastructure, with the possible exception of some minor changes at Gatwick station itself (if any are needed, which I doubt).

Gatwick’s view will be, I’m sure, like most airports are when it comes to rail expansion, and that is:
Rail expansion has the objective of more passengers being able to use rail to reach the airport. The rail industry takes the income. Why should the airport pay to provide infrastructure such that someone else gets the income?

IMHO there is zero chance of trains from the Tonbridge direction to Gatwick. These have been suggested / proposed multiple times over the decades, and once even came to fruition. The inconvenient truth is that not enough people will use them, and they are also difficult operationally.

I’m reasonably sure the Gatwick Express will return to 4tph. It’s an obvious move, albeit I forsee an almighty row about the impact on performance.

New trains on the North Downs will also happen at some point. How much more capacity than they will have compared to their predecessors remains to be seen, but they will need to fit on the platforms on the route.

In an ideal world, the Brighton Main Line would be four tracked all the way from Victoria to Brighton.

But that wouldn’t wouldn’t enable any more services from London / Croydon / Gatwick to Brighton.

Is it time to dust off the Thameslink 2 proposal?

There’s nothing to dust off!

 

[Deepgreen]

The clearest opportunity in my opinion is 12 car Gatwick Express. Secondly, a Strood-Gatwick service is overall probably the best way to maximise connectivity from Kent.
It's not building a new runway, it's moving the existing one by 12 metres. Even then, it seems excessive unless there are new facilities or taxiways associated with the project.

Effectively the same thing - the foundations will not be present under the grassed areas and so much of a new runway alignment will have to be built from scratch, as well as removing a good chunk of the old. Far more expensive than on a 'greenfield' site. I can't imagine a 'new' full-time runway also not requiring considerable extra taxiways and so on. Projects of this scale simply do not come in on budget, not least because their costs are always under-estimated to help win approval.

Anyway, digression threatens. Up-thread, someone mentioned that frequency rather than speed will become the key requirement, and that is so true. Shifting more people requires more trains, not necessarily faster ones.

 

[DelW]

Making it 4tph (two fast, two stoppers) would be a start; not that there are enough 165s to do so - but most of the intermediate stations cannot take more than the 3-car 165s

Maybe a third North Downs one day, if needed...? Add a stopper to Guildford, and extend one faster to Didcot and Oxford maybe.

Even before the 769s were ditched, there was strong opposition to the then 3tph plan because of the effect of more frequent level crossing closures, particularly at the A217 adjacent to Reigate station, but at others too.

The 3tph was going to be 2tph to Gatwick at even half-hourly intervals plus 1tph Redhill stopper. Since that plan was dropped, the 2tph to Gatwick at half-hourly intervals has been achieved by varying the stopping patterns, at a cost of slightly longer journey times.

I think the chances of getting additional services approved is negligible. Note also that there are currently "upgrades" being made to level crossings on the line which will substantially increase their closed time per train (e.g. AHB to full barriers). The highway authorities are even less likely to accept more trains now.

What might be possible, and beneficial, would be longer trains with suitable SDO for the smaller stations, but that won't happen until the 165s are replaced.

 

[Deepgreen]

Interesting thread.

There will be no funding from Gatwick for any rail infrastructure, with the possible exception of some minor changes at Gatwick station itself (if any are needed, which I doubt).

Gatwick’s view will be, I’m sure, like most airports are when it comes to rail expansion, and that is:
Rail expansion has the objective of more passengers being able to use rail to reach the airport. The rail industry takes the income. Why should the airport pay to provide infrastructure such that someone else gets the income?

IMHO there is zero chance of trains from the Tonbridge direction to Gatwick. These have been suggested / proposed multiple times over the decades, and once even came to fruition. The inconvenient truth is that not enough people will use them, and they are also difficult operationally.

I’m reasonably sure the Gatwick Express will return to 4tph. It’s an obvious move, albeit I forsee an almighty row about the impact on performance.

New trains on the North Downs will also happen at some point. How much more capacity than they will have compared to their predecessors remains to be seen, but they will need to fit on the platforms on the route.

I thought you were talking such sense until this! Seriously, though, the route is already prepared for four car trains (769s) and longer ones with SDO (say, five cars, to allow 'stacking' at Reading and elsewhere) could work.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 Sep 2025 ==

Even before the 769s were ditched, there was strong opposition to the then 3tph plan because of the effect of more frequent level crossing closures, particularly at the A217 adjacent to Reigate station, but at others too.

The 3tph was going to be 2tph to Gatwick at even half-hourly intervals plus 1tph Redhill stopper. Since that plan was dropped, the 2tph to Gatwick at half-hourly intervals has been achieved by varying the stopping patterns, at a cost of slightly longer journey times.

I think the chances of getting additional services approved is negligible. Note also that there are currently "upgrades" being made to level crossings on the line which will substantially increase their closed time per train (e.g. AHB to full barriers). The highway authorities are even less likely to accept more trains now.

What might be possible, and beneficial, would be longer trains with suitable SDO for the smaller stations, but that won't happen until the 165s are replaced.

Indeed - on my road, among others! Interestingly, a BBC item today has claimed that additional wait times per train will only be 30 seconds, whereas a flier from NR before the works started told us that 2 minutes would be added to crossing closure times - I am far more inclined to believe the latter.

 

[Bald Rick]

I thought you were talking such sense until this! Seriously, though, the route is already prepared for four car trains (769s) and longer ones with SDO (say, five cars, to allow 'stacking' at Reading and elsewhere) could work.

I’d say there’s a good chance that BEMUs on the North Downs will be with us before the second runway is re-commissioned.

 

[Vexed]

It's not building a new runway, it's moving the existing one by 12 metres. Even then, it seems excessive unless there are new facilities or taxiways associated with the project.

They're extending the terminals as well.

 

[weeklycommuter]

Wow - the infrastructure works necessary to allow that would be big, given that platforms on the route were just lengthened, where required, to accommodate four car trains!

They can surely use selective door opening if they do not want to spend money to lengthen platforms.

 

[jamieh27]

A fairly easy win would be to extend the Watford-East Croydon services to Gatwick/Three Bridges, increasing it to half hourly if there's capacity on the West London Line.

The reason it was cut back to East Croydon was because of capacity issue.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 Sep 2025 ==

The clearest opportunity in my opinion is 12 car Gatwick Express. Secondly, a Strood-Gatwick service is overall probably the best way to maximise connectivity from Kent.
It's not building a new runway, it's moving the existing one by 12 metres. Even then, it seems excessive unless there are new facilities or taxiways associated with the project.

I think they did that pre-COVID but since then its just 8 car services to Brighton which is sufficent at the moment also some of the 387/2s are on hire on some of the Southern routes so getting 12 car trains won't be practical unless theres a tender for extra rolling stock.

 

[MotCO]

IMHO there is zero chance of trains from the Tonbridge direction to Gatwick. These have been suggested / proposed multiple times over the decades, and once even came to fruition. The inconvenient truth is that not enough people will use them, and they are also difficult operationally.

Could a Tonbridge - Gatwick link provided 3 things:
1. Resilience if the main East Croydon - Gatwick route is blocked for any reason, particularly if Thameslink trains from north of the river could travel down the SE lines to Tonbridge before turning off? (Is the track work suitable at Tonbridge?)
2. Similarly, could Thameslink provide new links from other parts of NE London with Gatwick as a transport objective going via SE lines and Tonbridge? Again, do the SE lines have any spare capacity?
3. Links from deepest Kent to Gatwick.

All would need to be fast from Tonbridge to Gatwick, or only call at a few stations, to make journey times suitable.

 

[Bald Rick]

They can surely use selective door opening if they do not want to spend money to lengthen platforms.

Within reason.

But, as an example, if all trains were 8 car and only a handful of the stations the trains serve can take them, then it won‘t be used.