Russia invades Ukraine

[Tester]

The risk may be low, but giving Putin any kind of excuse to dust off the nuclear is a totally irresponsible suggestion.

Welcome to the real world!

If Putin said, "Give me all your money or I'll press the button", would you?

And if not, why not?

 

[najaB]

The risk may be low, but giving Putin any kind of excuse to dust off the nuclear is a totally irresponsible suggestion.

The thing to remember is that nobody wins in a nuclear war, the only way it makes sense to start one is if you can be sure that your enemy loses worse than you do. I don't think Russia is in that position.

 

[Annetts key]

Global Thermonuclear War - "The only winning move is not to play"...

 

[dgl]

Arguably if Russia can "accidentally" fly things in to NATO airspace then we should be allowed to "accidentally" fly planes over Ukraine.

 

[Giugiaro]

... we should be allowed to "accidentally" fly planes over Ukraine.

What if we do it on purpose? Like the good old days, we could send some very cheap, dumb, simple drones with nothing more than cartoon prints of Putin and petrol prices in Europe.

It would be funny to see the response from Russian diplomacy.

 

[Russel]

What if we do it on purpose? Like the good old days, we could send some very cheap, dumb, simple drones with nothing more than cartoon prints of Putin and petrol prices in Europe.

It would be funny to see the response from Russian diplomacy.

Funny maybe, but I'm not sure tit-for-tat escalation is helpful.

 

[Robski]

Rzeczpospolita is reporting that the house damaged during the Russian drone attack last week was actually hit by a malfunctioning missile fired by a Polish F-16 jet trying to shoot down a drone.

Polska rakieta uderzyła w dom na Lubelszczyźnie

Prokuratura utajnia informacje o „niezidentyfikowanym obiekcie latającym”, którego szczątki runęły na dom w Wyrykach na Lubelszczyźnie. Według informacji „Rzecz

www.rp.pl

Polish rocket hit home in Lublin region​

Prosecutor classifies information about a "unidentified flying object", whose remains fell on a home in Wyryki in the Lublin region. Ministry of National Defence [MON] is silent. According to "Rzeczpospolita" sources it was a rocket fired from a Polish F-16 which was trying to shoot down a flying drone - it had a navigation system malfunction.

 

[Trackman]

Rzeczpospolita is reporting that the house damaged during the Russian drone attack last week was actually hit by a malfunctioning missile fired by a Polish F-16 jet trying to shoot down a drone.

Polska rakieta uderzyła w dom na Lubelszczyźnie

Prokuratura utajnia informacje o „niezidentyfikowanym obiekcie latającym”, którego szczątki runęły na dom w Wyrykach na Lubelszczyźnie. Według informacji „Rzecz

www.rp.pl

Good job it didnt explode

 

[brad465]

Rzeczpospolita is reporting that the house damaged during the Russian drone attack last week was actually hit by a malfunctioning missile fired by a Polish F-16 jet trying to shoot down a drone.

Polska rakieta uderzyła w dom na Lubelszczyźnie

Prokuratura utajnia informacje o „niezidentyfikowanym obiekcie latającym”, którego szczątki runęły na dom w Wyrykach na Lubelszczyźnie. Według informacji „Rzecz

www.rp.pl

So it was indirectly caused by Russian forces, as if they hadn't fired the drone, the F-16 wouldn't have needed to fire a missile to try and (in this case unsuccessfully) intercept it.

 

[Robski]

So it was indirectly caused by Russian forces, as if they hadn't fired the drone, the F-16 wouldn't have needed to fire a missile to try and (in this case unsuccessfully) intercept it.

Absolutely, this doesn't change the fact that Russia is to blame for this happening in the first place.

 

[JamieL]

Russia continues its brazen disregard of other nations sovereignty- this time an armed incursion into Estonian airspace:

Three Russian warplanes that violated Estonian airspace have been intercepted by Nato, the military alliance has said.

Estonia's foreign ministry in Tallinn condemned the incursion as "brazen". It said three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered the airspace of a Nato member "without permission and remained there for a total of 12 minutes" on Friday over the Gulf of Finland.

Estonia seeks urgent Nato consultation after Russian jets violate airspace

Russia denies jets entered Estonian airspace in the same month as its drones violated the airspace of two other Nato members.

www.bbc.com

Why aren't these aircraft shot down? It strikes me Russia continues to test the West and 'push boundaries' and the West just sucks it up. At somepoint there will need to be line drawn.

 

[Peter C]

Edit: I posted the same thing as @JamieL at the same time!

-Peter

 

[brad465]

Russia continues its brazen disregard of other nations sovereignty- this time an armed incursion into Estonian airspace:

Estonia seeks urgent Nato consultation after Russian jets violate airspace

Russia denies jets entered Estonian airspace in the same month as its drones violated the airspace of two other Nato members.

www.bbc.com

Why aren't these aircraft shot down? It strikes me Russia continues to test the West and 'push boundaries' and the West just sucks it up. At somepoint there will need to be line drawn.

NATO should be reminded that Turkey managed to shoot down a Russian warplane and nothing more became of it on the part of Russia.

 

[PrincesWinsdor]

Russia is in an extremely weak state, their economy has collapsed and being cut off to the rest of Europe. Given that Russia is still struggling in Ukraine, there's no way they can sustain a conflict with NATO without the fall of Putin's regime.

 

[edwin_m]

This (and the drones) are probably a scare tactic by Russia to persuade NATO countries to keep their defences on their own territory rather than transferring them to Ukraine.

 

[PrincesWinsdor]

This (and the drones) are probably a scare tactic by Russia to persuade NATO countries to keep their defences on their own territory rather than transferring them to Ukraine.

Those drones pose no real threat to Poland at all.
Putin is just a mad man at this point.

 

[Killingworth]

This (and the drones) are probably a scare tactic by Russia to persuade NATO countries to keep their defences on their own territory rather than transferring them to Ukraine.

They are testing the water, how far we may not discover for some time.

NATO is patrolling with aircraft from multiple countries. Who fires first, who gives that order and who has to clearly explain exactly why, where and how the shooting took place?
Who's airspace, who's plane, what warning was given.

However, no Russian pilot normally wants to be shot down. This brinksmanship will be designed to test how well NATO command structures perform together. They want to sow division.

 

[PrincesWinsdor]

They are testing the water, how far we may not discover for some time.

NATO is patrolling with aircraft from multiple countries. Who fires first, who gives that order and who has to clearly explain exactly why, where and how the shooting took place?
Who's airspace, who's plane, what warning was given.

However, no Russian pilot normally wants to be shot down. This brinksmanship will be designed to test how well NATO command structures perform together. They want to sow division.

It comes as no surprise as Russia has been doing this for years, so they're just doing their old habits. And I don't think Russia wants a full scale conflict with with NATO because they know that they can't.

Also, China is actually Russia's biggest threat. China has surpassed Russia in almost every aspect except of resources. Which is why China is taking Russia's Siberian gas and coal
because now Russia is so weak that their resources are just free to be robbed by the Chinese.

 

[najaB]

Seems that Ukrainian forces have managed to recapture a sizeable amount of territory in the Donetsk region and there are rumours of a mini purge in the Kremlin. Could be nothing, or it could be an interesting few days/weeks ahead.

 

[PrincesWinsdor]

The front line of the war haven't changed significantly since 2023. It will probably remain this way for the foreseeable future.

 

[najaB]

The front line of the war haven't changed significantly since 2023. It will probably remain this way for the foreseeable future.

That's often the case in wars though - long periods where things remain essentially static and then rapid changes.

 

[PrincesWinsdor]

That's often the case in wars though - long periods where things remain essentially static and then rapid changes.

The only way I can see this is that Ukraine can retake it's territories. It's nearly impossible for the Russian Forces to advance at this stage.

 

[brad465]

The only way I can see this is that Ukraine can retake it's territories. It's nearly impossible for the Russian Forces to advance at this stage.

Ukraine doesn't have the resources to do this on its own, so unless NATO forces get involved (very unlikely), their best hope is for the Russian economy to collapse and in turn their supplies, so they cannot sustain occupation any longer, which is how Napoleon was defeated in Iberia and the USSR in Afghanistan. Ukraine already appear to be pursuing the latter through their effective attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, and the economic boost Russia was receiving from its war-footing has run out. The trouble is the time taken for this collapse could easily be longer than Trump caving in to Russian demands.

 

[PrincesWinsdor]

The trouble is the time taken for this collapse could easily be longer than Trump caving in to Russian demands.

The thing is, the so called 'peace talks' are just meetings between Trump and Putin,
with Ukraine completely uninvolved. I doubt there is any real progress.

 

[Annetts key]

Ukraine doesn't have the resources to do this on its own, so unless NATO forces get involved (very unlikely), their best hope is for the Russian economy to collapse and in turn their supplies, so they cannot sustain occupation any longer, which is how Napoleon was defeated in Iberia and the USSR in Afghanistan. Ukraine already appear to be pursuing the latter through their effective attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, and the economic boost Russia was receiving from its war-footing has run out. The trouble is the time taken for this collapse could easily be longer than Trump caving in to Russian demands.

I think the situation with both the state of the Russian military and the state of the Russian economy is worse than we think. Despite all the propaganda that Russia spouts, they don't have unlimited resources and money. They have suffered from tremendous losses of personal and equipment, plus this war is costing them an absolute fortune. They can't keep this war going at the current rate of losses.

If Ukraine keeps causing Russia dilemmas with regards to what to do about oil refineries, oil pumping stations, oil export / shipping port facilities, supply lines for the military and railway infrastructure / locomotives / trains coming under attack, this could suddenly develop into Russia not only being unable to hold the current "front lines" (*) but having to try to shorten the length of the front by abandoning some positions.

And that assumes that there is no economic collapse (although that does look like It will happen at some point in the future, within one to five years maybe).

It may get so bad, that just like a couple of years ago, Ukraine may manage to penetrate or out flank the Russians causing a collapse or partial of of the current Russian "front lines".

* In many cases, the front line is a grey area with no clearly identified demarcation between a controlled area and disputed area. Or an area where no one has control on the ground.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Sep 2025 ==

The thing is, the so called 'peace talks' are just meetings between Trump and Putin, two right wing dictators,
with Ukraine completely uninvolved. I doubt there is any real progress.

What talks? Trump appears to have given up with this. Putin has been playing Trump for a fool. Using these talks to try to further Russian aims while delaying or trying to avoid any further sanctions or other action against it from the U.S.A.

At no stage has Russia conceded anything at all. Trump has been and continues to be a complete waste of time. Further, despite saying things like "I'm not happy", what has Trump actually done to put pressure on Russia? What new sanctions has his administration introduced?

 

[PrincesWinsdor]

I think the situation with both the state of the Russian military and the state of the Russian economy is worse than we think. Despite all the propaganda that Russia spouts, they don't have unlimited resources and money. They have suffered from tremendous losses of personal and equipment, plus this war is costing them an absolute fortune. They can't keep this war going at the current rate of losses.

If Ukraine keeps causing Russia dilemmas with regards to what to do about oil refineries, oil pumping stations, oil export / shipping port facilities, supply lines for the military and railway infrastructure / locomotives / trains coming under attack, this could suddenly develop into Russia not only being unable to hold the current "front lines" (*) but having to try to shorten the length of the front by abandoning some positions.

And that assumes that there is no economic collapse (although that does look like It will happen at some point in the future, within one to five years maybe).

It may get so bad, that just like a couple of years ago, Ukraine may manage to penetrate or out flank the Russians causing a collapse or partial of of the current Russian "front lines".

* In many cases, the front line is a grey area with no clearly identified demarcation between a controlled area and disputed area. Or an area where no one has control on the ground.

Yes, and china is getting the most benefits from both sides. With Russia's economic collapse, China will demand a price to be paid for their 'friendship'. Also, China claims to be neutral while clearly supporting Russia over Ukraine. Yet the world is boycotting only Russia but not China, Russia's most important ally.

The EU stopped buying Russian gas, but apparently allows China to supply roughly 80% of the EU's solar photovoltaic panels.
If one day China invades Taiwan and the EU decides to sanction China, they would find
it challenging, given that nowadays almost everything is made in China or at least contains parts made in China

 

[najaB]

If one day China invades Taiwan and the EU decides to sanction China, they would find
it challenging, given that nowadays almost everything is made in China or at least contains parts made in China

The thing is, this situation didn't develop overnight and is likely to take even longer to rectify (if we want to do that).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Sep 2025 ==

Now, this is interesting (if true):

With tears in his eyes, a young Kenyan athlete now captive in Ukraine pleads not to be sent back to Russia.

"I will die there," Evans Kibet says, waving his hands in the air towards the unseen interviewer on the video released on Wednesday by a Ukrainian army brigade.

The 36-year-old prisoner-of-war is wearing a red sports top. The brigade's flag is pinned up behind him.

The aspiring long-distance runner says he was tricked into joining the Russian army and is desperate to go home to see his 16-year-old daughter.

In a Facebook post accompanying the video, the 57th Separate Motorised Infantry Brigade said it was an example of how Russia treats foreign recruits but added that he had "fought on the side of the enemy, so whether to believe the words and tears is up to your discretion".

I knew that Russia was recruiting volunteers from abroad, but this the first person I've heard of who claims that they were out and out tricked into joining up.

Link: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c79vqpnqgy7o

 

[Annetts key]

The thing is, this situation didn't develop overnight and is likely to take even longer to rectify (if we want to do that).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Sep 2025 ==

Now, this is interesting (if true):

I knew that Russia was recruiting volunteers from abroad, but this the first person I've heard of who claims that they were out and out tricked into joining up.

Link: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c79vqpnqgy7o

He's not the first to have claimed that he was tricked. There have been others. The trouble is, all the non-Russian individuals (not including North Koreans) that make these claims about having been tricked, no one has an means to verify what they say. I have no doubt that some were told they would be working in Russia or told that they would be working in logistics or some other non-combat role. But some may well have intentionally joined for the money.

 

[najaB]

I have no doubt that some were told they would be working in Russia or told that they would be working in logistics or some other non-combat role. But some may well have intentionally joined for the money.

I've seen those cases - the difference here is that, if his story is true, he wasn't going to Russia to work, but to compete in some races.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 Sep 2025 ==

Seems that the Ukrainians launched coordinated attacks on Russian supply depots over the last day or two.

Ukrainian forces have destroyed significant Russian strike drones and ammunition warehouses in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the General Staff reported.

“Ukrainian Defense Forces are effectively thwarting the aggressor’s plans,” reads a Telegram report published Monday, Sept. 22.

According to confirmed information, Russia had attempted to deliver various types of ammunition to the 17th Tank Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division near temporarily occupied Bohdanivka in the Luhansk region, while also distributing over 19,000 UAVs for its forces in the Donetsk region.

Source: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/60621

These coordinated attacks taking out supplies in field, combined with recent strikes against the transportation network could make thing interesting for the Russians.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Seems that the Ukrainians launched coordinated attacks on Russian supply depots over the last day or two.

Probably worth catching up here.

Ukraine is apparently giving Russia absolute hell this evening, with Belgorod having their thermal power plant attacked (allegedly by HIMARS!) in a serious way, and Zelenskyy is talking about a massive purchase of American arms worth up to $90 billion.

At the same time, Russia two nights ago launched a massive attack against Ukraine, but it seems that they did very poorly against Ukrainian air defences. Only 5 missiles made it through along with 27 drones, and it seems that Ukraine is getting progressively better at air defences as time goes on. The fact that they've been able to take down 43 out of 48 cruise missiles launched is quite impressive, and really doesn't bode well for Russia's actual military capabilities at all.

In related news, the Moldovan government has scored a truly stunning victory in the face of a massive attempt by Russia to influence the election there. Russia poured a huge amount of money and effort into their attempts, but the end result is that President Sandu's PAS party has won just over 50% of the vote and probably 55 seats out of 101. It's a stunning and remarkable victory, and even the Transnistrian vote hasn't gone entirely the way that Russia would expect.