stevieinselby
Established Member
Imagine that the whole of HS2 was like the bit between Aylesbury and Euston – that's what we're looking at across the Pennines. Much of the land is wild upland and moorland that would be totally unsuitable to build a railway on, and most of what is not upland and moorland is densely populated areas in steep-sided valleys. Any completely new route would be likely to involve significant amounts of tunnelling (very expensive), significant amounts of compulsory purchase and demolition (very expensive) and significant despoilation of valuable countryside and sensitive habitat (politically and environmentally unacceptable). There just aren't the large swathes of flat farmland between Manchester and Leeds that could easily and cheaply be acquired to provide a suitable route for an intercity standard railway, especially when you need to connect it to station throats that are already over-capacity.That's why new lines are such a good idea. I genuinely can't believe that TRU is actually cheaper than building a new railway between Manchester and Leeds. (Assuming that it uses conventional stations and approaches). Especially once cost of disruption is taken into account.
HS2 in full would have been cheaper and quicker than providing an equivalent upgrade to the ECML, XCML, WCML and MML. I'm not convinced the same would be true for HS3.
The three big problems with quoting "27,000 seats" are (1) demand isn't evenly spread across the day, so taking off some more lightly loaded trains at quiet times doesn't allow you to run any more trains at busy times when there isn't enough capacity, (b) it doesn't take into account the significant number of people travelling to/from intermediate stations, or possibly beyond (eg is a person travelling from Romford to Rochdale included? They will undoubtedly use the London to Manchester train for its entire length, but their ticket is neither from London nor to Manchester) and (iii) the WCML doesn't just serve Manchester, and other routes to the north west and Scotland may be more overcrowded but there isn't the space to run more trains.For avoidance of doubt I assume the reason that this is bollox is because of those 27,000 seats between Manchester and London a significant proportion of those are made up of people who either travel from Manchester and get off before London or are people who get on at an intermediary station between Manchester and London and get off at London or before.
A much better way would just be to look at home many people are on every Pendolino at different times of the day, is such data available in open source?
I believe there is data available on how many passengers are typically on each train, but I'm not sure where to find it or how easy it is to access at scale.
Where does the limit of traction fit here? To what extent can that rate of acceleration be reliably maintained in all conditions? There's no point in timetabling trains based on applying full beans on a dry rail and then finding that you've got massive delays every time it rains because trains don't have enough grip. It's bad enough that some lines have a degraded timetable during leaf-fall season. And can we realistically maintain the same rate of acceleration as speeds increase? It seems that the only way to do that would be to ramp up the power being transmitted to the wheels at higher speeds – there's a reason why acceleration falls away as speed increases, and it's called the laws of physics. Unless trains are sandbagging to start with and holding back power that would go beyond what they can get traction for, which feels like it might be an unnecessarily energy-intensive way of running.The limit to train acceleration is thus passenger comfort which on the London underground is limited to around 1.3ms/s, however with EV car motors and battery assist our next generation BEMU will be able to keep that rate of acceleration up until it passes 125mph, hitting 300km/h in 68 seconds and 3km from the start point. So with a 300kph speed and BEMU acceleration rates we could near half the journey time and therefore the number of trains needed to maintain the service. In the table below I compare a class 800 with a BEMU with 22MWe drivetrain limited to a max acceleration of 1.3ms/s (power output is calculated from sizing a battery that would fit into the weight delta between a class 800 and 801).
The other reason for not having intercity trains accelerate like the Victoria Line and/or a 747 is that you're much more likely to have passengers still moving around the carriage and standing or sorting out their luggage, and if the train takes off like a rocket then you're putting those people at much more risk of falling. On the tube, people get on and within seconds either take a seat or grab a handrail before the doors close and the train sets off. On a plane, people are seated and strapped in before they hit the taxiway, let alone the runway. But on an intercity train? Very often there are people still trying to find their seat or hefting cases into the overhead racks or whatever as the train leaves the station, so we don't want those trains going off like a greyhound.As a secondary benefit shooting for something like this would actually make rail something exciting for lay people, getting on a train that accelerates more like an aircraft taking off will actually be exciting. See Tom Scott's reaction to riding the SC Maglev which accelerates at a similar rate.
I wonder if there's any possibility of an additional track from the Down Main between platforms 3 and 5 with a crossover to reach platform 4? That would solve a lot of the problems of a Scarborough-bound train blocking the DM or platform 5 while waiting for up trains to pass, if they could use platform 4 without needing to run through platform 3 to get to it. Leeds is the second most common destination from Scarborough after York, with 10% of passenger journeys (York has 23%), so removing the through journeys is a significant inconvenience for passengers, although that would be mitigated to some extent if the York to Scarborough service was increased to half-hourly.I would run the Scarborough as a shuttle to York, I use it fairly regularly to and from Seamer to Manchester and its far more reliable when it runs that way even although it means a change. The path across York Station between Leeds and the Scarborough line crosses across the main ECML lines, and through Scarborough trains can only use platforms 5 or 3/4 which is one long platform, so running Scarborough services west of York immediately introduces a lot of failure points in the timetable. When it was/is a through service if its even a few minutes late at York you lose yet more time getting a path through York.
Connectivity is nice, but if reliability suffers then that is a much bigger problem. Its not so bad going west as the train from Scarborough can sit in Platform 4 and wait for for a path through the station so passenger changing are off the treain and making their connections, its going the other way (West to East) that fails on a regular basis, passenger with connections are sat outside York awaiting a platform. Obviously a unidirectional service is a physical impossiblity.

