• Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Russia invades Ukraine

najaB

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Aug 2011
Messages
33,695
Location
Scotland
But the US did have a mission objective, and it was clear. They just couldn't cope with the idea that their opponents weren't a massed army, and couldn't adapt accordingly.
Which conflict are you referring to? Pick one objective for each:
  • Afghanistan: Capture/kill OBL, defeat the Taliban, establish a pro-Western government
  • Iraq: Find the weapons of mass distraction destruction, Capture/kill Saddam, defeat the insurgency
  • Vietnam: Prevent the spread of communism, defeat the Viet Kong, support and train the South Vietnamese army, ensure a two-state solution
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

Mogster

Member
Joined
25 Sep 2018
Messages
1,032
Sure though for supporting Ukraine artillery makes sense. I'm also not entirely convinced that artillery is as without a key role to play as others might be.

But either way, even if the assumption that airpower is how we'll deliver the effect that artillery usually would, how long do you think our magazines of various air dropped weapons would last and how quickly could we replenish them? I reckon the answers are "not long" and "not quickly"....

Yes. For all the media hoohah around tiny drones, artillery (and mortars) are apparently still causing the greatest number of casualties in Ukraine. No matter what sort of drones you have your infantry still have to advance in the open to take ground. Artillery and mortars are still the best way to stop them, as they were in WW1 and WW2.

Then there’s the fact that a standard 155mm artillery shell costs ~£5K. A fancy GPS guided artillery shell costs ~£100K. A Storm Shadow missile costs ~£1M. An artillery shell can be made with standard metalworking tools and practices, a modern cruise missile requires incredibly complex manufacturing and design.
 

DustyBin

Established Member
Joined
20 Sep 2020
Messages
3,927
Location
First Class
Yes. For all the media hoohah around tiny drones, artillery (and mortars) are apparently still causing the greatest number of casualties in Ukraine. No matter what sort of drones you have your infantry still have to advance in the open to take ground. Artillery and mortars are still the best way to stop them, as they were in WW1 and WW2.

The other thing, according to someone I know with considerably more expertise (and experience) in this area than myself, is that artillery provides “area denial” which is tactically very important. There are dedicated munition types for this, but anything will do if you can saturate the area in question.
 

Sorcerer

Established Member
Joined
20 May 2022
Messages
2,114
Location
Liverpool
Which conflict are you referring to? Pick one objective for each:
  • Afghanistan: Capture/kill OBL, defeat the Taliban, establish a pro-Western government
  • Iraq: Find the weapons of mass distraction destruction, Capture/kill Saddam, defeat the insurgency
  • Vietnam: Prevent the spread of communism, defeat the Viet Kong, support and train the South Vietnamese army, ensure a two-state solution
Okay so I wasn't who you asked, but I do think it's fair to point out that three objectives you listed relating to Afghanistan were sort of connected to each other. Osama bin Laden was a dangerous individual who needed to be dealt with in some way or another, and by extension the Taliban as well for providing shelter to him and his wider network. The third objective was necessary in the face of a power vacuum, but that turned out pretty disastrous in the end.

As for Iraq I think we can both agree that it was mostly just about the Bush Administration gunning for Saddam Hussein, and while I can't say the world should mourn him, it did in some ways leave the place worse off than when they first arrived. I mean who in hindsight believes disbanding the Iraqi Army without any follow-up plan was a good idea?

With relation to Russia-Ukraine conflict I think any boots-on-the-ground intervention would simply be a repeat of Operation Desert Storm in 1991 if nuclear weapons weren't part of the equation, but as it stands now NATO can only try to keep it going on enough so that it becomes unsustainable for Russia, or ideally for a decent ceasefire/armistice deal to be reached. Neither one will be easy.
 

martin butler

Member
Joined
9 Oct 2018
Messages
879
Putin's objective is to somehow recreate the glory years, as he sees it of the USSR but Ask any of the former WP countries and their response would be an outstanding No Way, even the ones that are still aligned to Russia, if they had free elections, would choose freedom, from Moscow,

Ukraine, is testing the worlds meddle, if we did not help, then Russia would try to pick off the countries of the Baltic's one by one, that's why we really have no choice, we have to stand by Ukraine, and ensure Putin's dream dies with him, otherwise there will be no peace,

We do have the weapons systems, Ukraine needs, and should send what we can send, far easier to defeat Russia now, than in ten years' time, As regards the US, and Trump, he clearly has to be an Russian asset, he owes Russia money, and they no doubt have kompromat on him, plus he treats the presidency as an extension of his business empire, it's about his personal greed and image, not about what's in the US;s best interests, and it astounds me that he gets away with actions that clearly are damaging the US, at home, as well as on the world stage.
 

Noddy

Established Member
Joined
11 Oct 2014
Messages
1,652
Location
UK
whether Russia actually poses a DIRECT threat to those countries if left to do what it wants.

I suppose it depends on what you call a direct ‘threat’. It’s killed British citizens on British soil. It’s widely accepted that it was involved in influencing in the Brexit referendum. Anyone who believes it wasn’t involved in the Scottish independence referendum is being wildly naive. There are similar reports out of Catalonia. While Russia may not be a ‘DIRECT’ threat in terms of militarily attacking Western Europe with boots and missiles (although Finland might have something different to say there) it’s pretty obvious it represents an ‘indirect’ threat to Western European states and institutions, and will try its best to destabilise and weaken them, economically and politically.
 
Last edited:

Belperpete

Established Member
Joined
17 Aug 2018
Messages
3,651
Yes. For all the media hoohah around tiny drones, artillery (and mortars) are apparently still causing the greatest number of casualties in Ukraine. No matter what sort of drones you have your infantry still have to advance in the open to take ground. Artillery and mortars are still the best way to stop them, as they were in WW1 and WW2.
Agreed that conventional weapons are causing the greatest number of civilian casualties. However, reports from the ground say that drones are proving very effective at targeting Ukraine's infantry. Both in direct attacks, and acting as spotters for directing conventional fire.

Both sides are using drones in significant numbers. They wouldn't be doing so without good reason. Conventional artillery and the like are singularly ineffective against infantry, particularly if well dug in or hidden. Most shells fired in both WW achieved little more than psychological impact.
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
113,557
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
I suppose it depends on what you call a direct ‘threat’. It’s killed British citizens on British soil. It’s widely accepted that it was involved in influencing in the Brexit referendum. Anyone who believes it wasn’t involved in the Scottish independence referendum is being wildly naive. There are similar reports out of Catalonia. While Russia may not be a ‘DIRECT’ threat in terms of militarily attacking Western Europe with boots and missiles (although Finland might have something different to say there) it’s pretty obvious it represents an ‘indirect’ threat to Western European states and institutions, and will try its best to destabilise and weaken them, economically and politically.

Not half as much as a full on, possibly nuclear, war would destabilise them.
 

edwin_m

Veteran Member
Joined
21 Apr 2013
Messages
28,684
Location
Nottingham
As for Iraq I think we can both agree that it was mostly just about the Bush Administration gunning for Saddam Hussein, and while I can't say the world should mourn him, it did in some ways leave the place worse off than when they first arrived. I mean who in hindsight believes disbanding the Iraqi Army without any follow-up plan was a good idea?
A direct line can be drawn from the Iraq war to ISIS and to the bloody civil war in Syria. After Iraq western countries were loath to intervene there and elsewhere, when it might sometimes have been better if they had. This led Russia to take a big role in Syria and probably also to conclude more widely that they could move on Ukraine and elsewhere without any serious consequences. Also the optics of Iraq damaged the reputation of the west in non-aligned countries.
Not half as much as a full on, possibly nuclear, war would destabilise them.
Not half as much but I'd suggest enough. Similar to Hitler, Putin isn't looking for a hot war with western European countries but wants us weak enough that he can do what he likes further east. So quite apart from the moral duty to divert a small part of our resources to aiding the eastern European countries that are trying to sustain their pro-western outlook, there is still some practical benefit to keeping Putin down.
 

Belperpete

Established Member
Joined
17 Aug 2018
Messages
3,651
I suppose it depends on what you call a direct ‘threat’. It’s killed British citizens on British soil. It’s widely accepted that it was involved in influencing in the Brexit referendum. Anyone who believes it wasn’t involved in the Scottish independence referendum is being wildly naive. There are similar reports out of Catalonia. While Russia may not be a ‘DIRECT’ threat in terms of militarily attacking Western Europe with boots and missiles (although Finland might have something different to say there) it’s pretty obvious it represents an ‘indirect’ threat to Western European states and institutions, and will try its best to destabilise and weaken them, economically and politically.
This is what Russia did in the Donbas, stoking disaffection in the indigenous Russian population, that it then used as the pretext for its full-blown invasion. It is why the Baltic countries in particular are worried, as they too have significant indigenous Russian populations that quickly went from being top-dogs to under-dogs after the split from Russia. They are not worried about imminent invasion, but they can see the same tactic being used against them in the medium to long-term.
 

35B

Established Member
Joined
19 Dec 2011
Messages
5,486
This is what Russia did in the Donbas, stoking disaffection in the indigenous Russian population, that it then used as the pretext for its full-blown invasion. It is why the Baltic countries in particular are worried, as they too have significant indigenous Russian populations that quickly went from being top-dogs to under-dogs after the split from Russia. They are not worried about imminent invasion, but they can see the same tactic being used against them in the medium to long-term.
It's an old playbook, offering the expansionist power plausible deniability if it goes nowhere and a convenient ratchet if they gain traction.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Which conflict are you referring to? Pick one objective for each:
  • Afghanistan: Capture/kill OBL, defeat the Taliban, establish a pro-Western government
  • Iraq: Find the weapons of mass distraction destruction, Capture/kill Saddam, defeat the insurgency
  • Vietnam: Prevent the spread of communism, defeat the Viet Kong, support and train the South Vietnamese army, ensure a two-state solution
I was referring to Vietnam, where I'd have said the strategic objective was to defeat the Viet Cong, while supporting and training the South Vietnamese army and ensuring a two state solution were part of how the strategy was delivered, and the overall engagement in Vietnam formed part of a wider Cold War strategic objective of preventing the spread of Communism.

With that in mind, the failure of the US was in how it failed to understand the geographical, cultural, and political terrain and chose tactics that were entirely inappropriate.

Similar can be said of both Iraq and Afghanistan, where the strategic objective of defeating a military opponent lacked real consideration of how to "win the peace" that followed.
 
Last edited:

Annetts key

Established Member
Joined
13 Feb 2021
Messages
3,816
Location
West is best
Never mind all the other reasons to help Ukraine (of which there are many), my view is that if Putin (and Russia) were to win in Ukraine, that would set a very dangerous precedent. The loss of Ukraine would directly make the rest of Eastern Europe far more venerable. Which in turn makes the E.U. And N.A.T.O. weaker. Under the current president of America, the U.S.A. is already seen as being weaker. Plus China is watching. Russia winning would give them ideas. And there may be other smaller countries that would also think that if they attacked their neighbour, the chances of "the West" intervening are low.

We have, in the main, enjoyed a relatively stable and peaceful time because most countries understood that the powerful "Western" countries would at the very least, contain any trouble or conflict.

Whatever happened in the past with regards to Iraq and Afghanistan is history, we can't change that. We can however learn from the mistakes that were made. And the worse possible thing would be to make even bigger mistakes because of being afraid to take appropriate action when needed.

If Russia attacking and invading an independent, sovereign democratic country in Europe (even if that country has flaws) that is asking for our help isn't enough. If the Russian military raping, torturing and killing civilians (including women and children) isn't enough, then you really need to ask yourself about your own morals.

About nuclear weapons, all the arguments and comments here about Russia's nuclear weapons being a risk, well, sorry, but they have always been a risk. We have a counter - the British and French nuclear weapons alone would cause so much damage to Russia that they act as a deterrent. You have to ignore all the Saber rattling from Russia. As I have said before, if Russia was going to use nuclear weapons, they would have done so when Ukraine took some of the Russian territory.

As absolutely no one is or has seriously suggested Western forces would invade international recognised Russian territory, the likelihood of Russia actually using nuclear weapons stays extremely low. Lower than the risk level was during some parts of the Cold War.
 

najaB

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Aug 2011
Messages
33,695
Location
Scotland
Similar can be said of both Iraq and Afghanistan, where the strategic objective of defeating a military opponent lacked real consideration of how to "win the peace" that followed.
And that's the point I was making - they had a nebulous overall objective but no thought appears to have gone into what achieving that objective actually required and entailed.
 

35B

Established Member
Joined
19 Dec 2011
Messages
5,486
And that's the point I was making - they had a nebulous overall objective but no thought appears to have gone into what achieving that objective actually required and entailed.
And where I am at a tangent to you - I think there was a narrowly military objective, but no one thought what achieving that might actually mean.
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
113,557
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
You’re falling into Putins trap with that statement though.

Continuing to support Ukraine is unlikely to result in much more than stuff like cyber attacks which are inconvenient but manageable. Some here want to declare (or execute undeclared) a full war on Russia, and that would be disastrous. Unfortunately we are seeing the disadvantages of nuclear weapons, which sit alongside the advantages in meaning Russia would be unlikely to invade the UK - but if as some propose we made the first move they might well be used.

Because of nuclear weapons Putin does have a good hand of cards in a way Hitler did not (i.e. it was possible to wage war on Germany without a significant risk of the entire of the UK being wiped off the map, even if it was fairly disastrous overall). We do need to consider that even if he is the bad guy.
 

Noddy

Established Member
Joined
11 Oct 2014
Messages
1,652
Location
UK
Continuing to support Ukraine is unlikely to result in much more than stuff like cyber attacks which are inconvenient but manageable. Some here want to declare (or execute undeclared) a full war on Russia, and that would be disastrous. Unfortunately we are seeing the disadvantages of nuclear weapons, which sit alongside the advantages in meaning Russia would be unlikely to invade the UK - but if as some propose we made the first move they might well be used.

Because of nuclear weapons Putin does have a good hand of cards in a way Hitler did not (i.e. it was possible to wage war on Germany without a significant risk of the entire of the UK being wiped off the map, even if it was fairly disastrous overall). We do need to consider that even if he is the bad guy.

It’s more than just some cyber attacks, though. You’ve got British citizens killed on British soil. You’ve got fundamental changes and weakening of western countries and institutions.

With regards to Germany, there were massive stockpiles of chemical weapons on both sides. If chemical weapons had been used it would have made the Blitz or Dresden look like a tea party. But both sides choose not to use them because they knew the consequences.

I’m not suggesting we should declare war on Russia. But we should either accept that Ukraine needs proper military support to defend itself fully or we leave it to Russia. At the moment the west is the cause of this trench/meat grinder warfare by only giving Ukraine just enough permission and associated munitions, to defend itself, but not enough to be able to do anything militarily significant.
 

Cdd89

Established Member
Joined
8 Jan 2017
Messages
1,758
We should either accept that Ukraine needs proper military support to defend itself fully or we leave it to Russia.
Why can't we do what we have been doing, i.e. make the gains not worth the price for Russia, a fact likely privately recognised by Putin, and reach a settlement which relies upon this fact to deter a future invasion?

"Defeat Russian advances or give away Ukraine" seems like a false choice.
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
113,557
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
It’s more than just some cyber attacks, though. You’ve got British citizens killed on British soil.

A very small number which is not comparable to the number it would be if Russia was to chuck a few conventional cruise missiles at London one evening.

Don't get me wrong - Russia is being downright evil. But sometimes it is pragmatically not possible to do something about that because the effects of doing so are worse than putting up with it.
 

Annetts key

Established Member
Joined
13 Feb 2021
Messages
3,816
Location
West is best
A very small number which is not comparable to the number it would be if Russia was to chuck a few conventional cruise missiles at London one evening.

Don't get me wrong - Russia is being downright evil. But sometimes it is pragmatically not possible to do something about that because the effects of doing so are worse than putting up with it.
Um, Russia doesn't have any cruise missiles that could be launched from the main Russian territory that could hit the U.K.

And conventional normally means non-nuclear warheads.

Do you actually mean ICBM? Or do you mean air launched cruise missiles?

Whichever, that is still extremely unlikely, as I have outlined already earlier today in this topic even if we sent forces to fight alongside the Ukrainian forces in the front line. Which I have not actually said in any of my recent posts.
 

Noddy

Established Member
Joined
11 Oct 2014
Messages
1,652
Location
UK
reach a settlement which relies upon this fact to deter a future invasion?

I don’t believe he’ll be deterred by any thing that appears to be on the table in the Whitehouse at the moment. Unless the west put troops on the ground in Ukraine (which is exactly what @Bletchleyite appears to be arguing against) and which Trump appears to be ruling out all it is doing is giving Putin a few years to regroup, mount further disinformation campaigns and come again.

A very small number which is not comparable to the number it would be if Russia was to chuck a few conventional cruise missiles at London one evening.

Do you not mean nuclear missiles? The Russians don’t have really have any conventional cruise missiles that could reach the UK and are large enough to cause a really large mass death event unless it got very lucky with its target. And this would only be possible if it was a totally out of the blue, unprovoked attack. If there was any preparation the missiles wouldn’t make it to London.
 
Last edited:

ainsworth74

Forum Staff
Staff Member
Global Moderator
Joined
16 Nov 2009
Messages
31,103
Location
Redcar
Whilst I disagree with @Bletchleyite in general on this topic I would note that the Russian Navy still exists (outside of the Black Sea anyway) and has plenty of surface and subsurface assets capable of launching cruise missiles from far closer than Russian territory.
 

Annetts key

Established Member
Joined
13 Feb 2021
Messages
3,816
Location
West is best
Why can't we do what we have been doing, i.e. make the gains not worth the price for Russia, a fact likely privately recognised by Putin, and reach a settlement which relies upon this fact to deter a future invasion?

"Defeat Russian advances or give away Ukraine" seems like a false choice.

In a war like this, there is a very fine line between helping just enough that a country / military can try to stand it's ground and defend and said force having to withdraw and give up ground, villages, towns, cities and people.

Ideally, the best way to win is to give a country / military plenty of help to try to ensure that they can force the invaders back. Ukraine has done really well given they have been at a disadvantage when it comes to resources since the beginning.

But, Russia is still trying to throw everything at Ukraine. So the "Western" countries (as well as the other countries that are helping Ukraine) need to increase the amount of support.

Russia is suffering huge losses (which it doesn't care about) but is still making progress. Yes, this progress is slow. But it's consuming Ukrainian resources.

If Ukraine does not receive enough help, this war could go on for years and years.
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
113,557
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
I don’t believe he’ll be deterred by any thing that appears to be on the table in the Whitehouse at the moment. Unless the west put troops on the ground in Ukraine (which is exactly what @Bletchleyite appears to be arguing against) and which Trump appears to be ruling out all it is doing is giving Putin a few years to regroup, mount further disinformation campaigns and come again.

The one and only circumstances under which I would find it acceptable for boots to be placed on the ground would be if that was led by the United States, because Russia would be unlikely to directly attack them because they'd get worse back. Russia at present would be scared of the USA, but not of the comparatively puny UK military.

However it doesn't seem Trump is interested in that.

A European led attack on the ground in Ukraine would likely be disastrous - far worse for Western European countries than Putin recreating the situation as it was pre-1990, and I don't think he'd even get that far. I'm sorry, but with all due respect I am not willing to lay my life down for Ukraine, no chance, whether that be by going to war myself or whether it be a bomb dropped on my home. It's different from World War 2; in that there was a credible direct threat of invasion to the United Kingdom if no action was taken. In this case there is not. Russia has no interest in actually invading the UK and no evidence exists to the contrary.

I further wonder how many of those pushing for direct involvement might think differently if they were diving into the Tube to hide away as air raid sirens were blaring. It's easy to come across as brave behind a keyboard, but when it's you under attack... :)
 

Noddy

Established Member
Joined
11 Oct 2014
Messages
1,652
Location
UK
home. It's different from World War 2; in that there was a credible direct threat of invasion to the United Kingdom if no action was taken.

There was absolutely no credible direct threat of invasion of the UK when we declared war on Germany. Hitler was looking east and southwards attempting to reunite the German speaking countries and regions.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Whilst I disagree with @Bletchleyite in general on this topic I would note that the Russian Navy still exists (outside of the Black Sea anyway) and has plenty of surface and subsurface assets capable of launching cruise missiles from far closer than Russian territory.

So does the Russian airforce. But it would be a one time event.
 
Last edited:

najaB

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Aug 2011
Messages
33,695
Location
Scotland
Russia at present would be scared of the USA, but not of the comparatively puny UK military.
I cannot see any situation where the USA would allow Russia to attack the UK and refuse to get involved. Not to mention, a Trident sub can really ruin one's day.
 

gg1

Established Member
Joined
2 Jun 2011
Messages
2,493
Location
Birmingham
There was absolutely no credible direct threat of invasion of the UK when we declared war on Germany. Hitler was looking east and southwards attempting to reunite the German speaking countries and regions.
No imminent threat but if Britain had stayed neutral and then Germany proceeded to defeat both France and the Soviet Union (a distinct possibility if the Soviet Union was fighting the war alone), Nazi Germany would then be a major direct threat to Britain.
 

Noddy

Established Member
Joined
11 Oct 2014
Messages
1,652
Location
UK
No imminent threat but if Britain had stayed neutral and then Germany proceeded to defeat both France and the Soviet Union (a distinct possibility if the Soviet Union was fighting the war alone), Nazi Germany would then be a major direct threat to Britain.

That’s got nothing to do with the inaccurate retelling of history that I was responding to. There was no credible direct threat of invasion when the UK declared war on Germany.
 

35B

Established Member
Joined
19 Dec 2011
Messages
5,486
I cannot see any situation where the USA would allow Russia to attack the UK and refuse to get involved. Not to mention, a Trident sub can really ruin one's day.
I can. Just as that position was the default 85 years ago - and that was with a supportive President with activist advisors, not the America First President supported by similar advisors.
 

Top