I'm not convinced that many Cambridge people are flying from Birmingham. I'm thinking more of people coming the other way who don't want to try to bring their car into Cambridge.
The Airport & NEC were only example destinations. The west midlands are much nearer and much larger to Cambridge than Brighton (as a comparison), but as theres no rail link worth speaking of, we can't assess the demand for a new direct EWR service by existing rail traffic. Existing Oxford rail traffic will be good as the current train is competitive with road, unlike the west midlands. Reversing at Bletchley is unfortunately but not a deal breaker at all (unlike freight)
No. It was to enable the 3. 4tph has never been a proposal and doesn't work properly. If you want 4tph along there you need to have the minimum 5 minute turnarounds at Redditch for every single service for every hour. Same goes at Alvechurch, you are right on the minimum limits every service for every hour.
That's not correct Brighton and Birmingham are very similar distances from Cambridge. Brighton, though not as big as Birmingham, is nevertheless, much bigger than Cambridge.
Cambridge-Birmingham has direct trains now.
Cambridge-Oxford by train is an indirect route via London, and not competitive with road, yet the passenger flow is bigger than Cambridge-Birmingham.
We can, by looking at comparable existing routes. For example Cambridge-Oxford can be compared to Cambridge-Norwich, which is about 5 times bigger than the existing Cambridge-Oxford flow.
There is a line without a platform to the west and an eastern entrance is proposed. A platform 8 could provide additional flexibility.
That’s true but part of the reason is that Cambridge is so poorly connected to the north. The amount of traffic on the A14 shows how huge the flows are - just not on rail.
I’m based near Cambridge and regularly fly from Birmingham, which is marginally closer than Gatwick - however since the opening of the direct link to Gatwick from Cambridge I’ve tended to use that. Part of the issue and lack of use of Birmingham is the algorithms where London airports are grouped together -rather than airports’ proximity to a location.
Birmingham to Cambridge is in fact a shade over 2hrs 30 - (2hrs 38mins) in rail industry meetings, I’m aware that a north to east facing curve at Bletchley is supported by NR - and I imagine that a Birmingham, Birmingham International, Coventry, Rugby, MKC, Bedford, Tempsford, Cambourne, Cambridge South, Cambridge (Central) would probably take around 2hrs 10 mins.
Brighton is a fair bit further than Birmingham from Cambridge by road and involves the M25 which is very unreliable. I do both journeys regularly - Birmingham is around 98 miles and typically takes 1hr 40 mins while Brighton is about 123 miles and typically takes about 2hrs 20 mins.
Cambridge to Birmingham by road is about 1hr 35 to 1hr 40 compared with 2hrs 38 mins by rail. It goes around the houses as far north as Melton Mowbray. It is also expensive and there aren’t Network Card discounts as there are to Oxford. Oxford to Cambridge on the other hand by road typically takes over 2 hours and by rail it’s a similar time albeit changes are involved.
I travel to Oxford regularly and have never gone via the M25. The options are generally the direct but slow route via St Neots, Bedford, MK, Bicester or the less direct but faster route via Huntingdon, Wellingborough, Northampton, Towcester.
Thanks for putting it better than me!
That's also not mentioning the rather larger city approximately halfway between Cambridge and Brighton. The majority of traffic on the Cambridge-Brighton services isn't travelling the full length of the routes...
Oh, I had been under the impression it was done for 4tph. However in the grand scheme of things to extend the double track towards Redditch from Alvechurch should be relatively cheap compared to the tunnel.
The heavy traffic on the A14 does not show that. You are asserting that the A14 traffic is long distance, but a lot of it is not. Like on rail, a lot of A14 traffic is local for Cambridge, especially from the Huntingdon/Kettering direction, where there is no rail equivalent.
That's true, but it applies to the Birmingham route too, where there is a massive turnover of passengers at Peterborough. It doesn't negate the point that from Cambridge there is a lot more travel to Brighton by train than there is to Birmingham.
I agree that Birmingham-Cambridge via a Bletchley North curve could be this quick. But it is very unlikely to happen when East West Rail first opens. If a Bletchley North Curve appears in the expected 2026 EWR statutory consultation then I will be very surprised. It might happen later, when EWR traffic ramps up, but I'm not expecting to still be alive to see it!
A little off topic, but I think what happens with EWR-WCML North will depend on HS2. Trains to Manchester would also have some potential, but those paths will not come unless HS2 is so successful that HS gets extended and leaves paths on the classic lines.
Love the idea of bi hourly direct North west to south west trains. The connections at present from NW to SW are abysmal, generally giving an hour fester at New Street. And to think there used to be direct trains between these areas. A train every two hours from say Liverpool or Manchester would be a game changer for both NW and SW folk.
Do you have any evidence to back that up? The A14 is East Anglia's route to the majority of the UK.
Because there's no competitive service to Birmingham! Birmingham has much higher traffic overall, but its not via train atm hence the opportunity with EWR
Google Maps suggests (for tomorrow morning) a route from Cambridge to Oxford via the M25 (junctions 21a to 16), so I suspect a lot of other journey planners do, and a lot of people go that way.
Indeed. I've been traveling on the A14 (previously the A604) for over 35 years. It's always busy, there's always more traffic going west than north at Alconbury, and this is surely indicative of a good opportunity / need for a competitive rail offer, if only people within the rail industry would recognise this. Instead we have largely the same service as 30 years ago. In that time the A604 / A14 has been upgraded multiple times.
Birmingham
Yes - I’m asserting that the majority of it is long distance traffic. There are parallel roads for local traffic. The A14 heading west/north-west of Cambridge is far busier than the M11 south towards London or indeed east towards Ipswich and the East Coast ports. It shows that there is huge demand for travel west towards the Midlands and north to the North but few are choosing to go by rail. This in stark contrast to Peterborough where large numbers travel north on the ECML because it’s much quicker than travelling by road.
Perhaps they plan their trips at 11pm at night (where it shows that route to be 1 minute faster than via Wellingborough but I can pretty much guarantee during the working day - one of the routes I mentioned wil be at least half an hour and possibly an hour quicker
I set the departure time to be 10.30 on Sunday morning. Perhaps it will change on Sunday itself.
I have to agree... EWR has become our own version of the Pentagon Wars
The Brampton-Catthorpe section of the A14 opened in the early 1990s, it is less than 35 years old. It is primarily a freight route to/from Felixstowe, especially to the distribution "golden triangle".
The reference to EWR in the context of cross country is because it has the potential to become a better rail route between Cambridge and the West Midlands than the existing route via Leicester. You are right that EWR will fix a major hole in the cross country network, but its history demonstrates that, on its own, that isn't enough to get EWR built. Ever since the 2023 EWR route update announcement it has been clear that the only way for the Bedford-Cambridge section to get built is if it also carries a lot of local traffic into Cambridge from new housing at Cambourne and Tempsford. Look at the Gove case for Cambridge and the Reeves Oxford-Cambridge corridor: Whitehall (and especially the Treasury) wants EWR because of what it does for economic growth in Cambridge, not for what it does for cross country connectivity.
Good idea I think.
Terminate at York?
Personally I think a faster Plymouth-Edinburgh service via Leeds would be better with the Reading-Newcastle or York picking up Tamworth/Burton, Chesterfield and maybe going via Leeds and the Edinburgh can skip Wakefield. Also, will avoiding Reading provide much increase in capacity for freight? While going via Doncaster is quicker, going via Leeds is useful as you kill two birds with one stone by having a through train that caters to more people. A 7 car bi-mode 80x should be sufficient but capable of being lengthened to 9 car. Make the interiors comfortable enough for long journeys and maybe reintroduce a buffet car and meals in first class. Could vastly improve the quality on XC.
