Russia invades Ukraine

[Annetts key]

It’s not possible to predict how or if this war will end at the moment. I agree that there may be a small chance of a temporary ceasefire.

Things we do know:

• Both sides are having increasing difficulty getting more people to fight on the front line.
• Russia is using main battle tanks and armoured fighting vehicles less and less as the number that they can build is limited and the number that they can “restore” from their stockpiles falls as they are now pulling out vehicles in the worst condition from these stockpiles.
• Both sides are increasingly using drones and more of them.
• The Russian economy is not looking very healthy with both high inflation, high interest rates and labour shortages. And the income from the sale of oil overseas is being affected by the international oil price having fallen below the price that the Russians budgeted for. As a result, Russia has been using funds from their sovereign wealth funds.
• Petrol / Gasoline and Diesel prices inside Russia are high and may go higher, due the impact of their oil refineries being hit by drones.
• Various countries around the world are still supporting Ukraine, including many European countries. Both with weapons and money.

There are many things we don’t know.

But some possibles that may significantly affect the war include the Russian economy getting significantly worse. If the money is not available to pay for “new” soldiers to fight on the front line, Russia’s advances, slow as they currently are, will falter and it’s possible that may also lead to some success for Ukraine in taking back some territory.

Ukraine is working on both special drones to attack incoming Russian drones and laser systems that can damage incoming Russian drones. If successful, these could reduce the amount of damage to civilian homes and infrastructure and the number of civilian casualties.

But the most unpredictable element is Trump.

If he is still frustrated by Russia, and remember, Russia has not conceded anything, their special military operation objectives are the same now, as at the start, he could get mad and impose more “secondary tariffs”. Already India has 25% plus it is due to increase by another 25% if they continue buying Russia oil.

But he could also live up to his TACO tag...

 

[DarloRich]

I am worried that the forthcoming "peace" conference between would be Nobel prize winner Trump and his mate Putin may simply be the 2025 version of the Munich conferences between Hitler and Chamberlain with Donetsk playing the part of the Sudetenland..................

 

[doc7austin]

My take is that this meeting between Putin and Trump is only happening because Putin is trying to play for more time.

But why would Putin play for time - I thought Ukraine was winning this war ?
The more times passes, the closer Ukraine comes to victory.

After all, if he believes the bull from his own generals, Russia is apparently making significant progress.

President Zelenskyy promised the Ukrainians in his 2023 New Year address that all occupied areas would be liberated. And he proclaimed the Year 2023 as the Year of Victory.
So I would have expected significant progress from the Ukrainian Army over the last 2.5 years.

Of course, in the real world, it's not really making any significant strategic progress. And their losses are horrendous.

Are there any verified numbers of losses - on both sides ? e.g. Ukrainian losses, confirmed from the Ukrainian government; Russian losses, confirmed by the Russian government.

The Russian economy is not looking very healthy with both high inflation, high interest rates and labour shortages. .. But some possibles that may significantly affect the war include the Russian economy getting significantly worse. If the money is not available to pay for “new” soldiers to fight on the front line, Russia’s advances, slow as they currently are, will falter and it’s possible that may also lead to some success for Ukraine in taking back some territory.

I have to agree here that the Russia economy is tanking.
But where is Ukraine in this equation ? What are the numbers for inflation, interest rates and labour shortages in Ukraine ?
Where does Ukraine find the money to pay for new soldiers in order to produce some success in taking back territory ?

 

[najaB]

President Zelenskyy promised the Ukrainians in his 2023 New Year address that all occupied areas would be liberated. And he proclaimed the Year 2023 as the Year of Victory.
So I would have expected significant progress from the Ukrainian Army over the last 2.5 years.

And Putin said the special military operation would last days...

 

[doc7austin]

And Putin said the special military operation would last days...

Would you have a source for where "Putin said" that ?

Here is my source on President Zelenskyy's statement:

Client Challenge

Moreover, if someone wonders why Zelenskyy was not invited to Alaska this Friday. It was Zelenskyy himself, who had ruled out talks with Putin.

Source:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-decree-rules-out-ukraine-talks-with-putin-impossible-2022-10-04/

Before there is any misunderstanding: I want the Ukrainian people to win this war.

 

[Cloud Strife]

This does raise the question though, just how does this end?

The problem is that a permanent ceasefire like in Cyprus isn't really achievable, because one side is hell bent on pursuing an expansionist policy at the expense of their neighbours. If you look at what happened in 1974, Turkey achieved most of her objectives and readily agreed to a ceasefire, or rather a collection of local ceasefire agreements. It works to this day because neither side has any interest in military conflict, nor do they have any real desire to take territory on the other side. The Turkish forces did occupy a little bit of RoC territory in 2000 next to the SBA Dhekelia, but this was very much the exception.

Russia on the other hand is not going to stop with a ceasefire, they'll simply rearm and try again when they can.

 

[doc7austin]

Russia on the other hand is not going to stop with a ceasefire, they'll simply rearm and try again when they can.

I agree with this rationale. That's why Russia won't agree to a complete ceasefire.

In addition, it seems that Zelenskyy has ruled out a ceasefire multiple times, so Russia is essentially following Zelenskyy's path.

"The war would end, he said, when Russian troops left Ukraine or were thrown out."

Source:

Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says Putin’s 36-hour truce is a tactical ploy

Ukrainian leader says the war will end when Russian troops leave Ukraine or ‘we throw them out’.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[najaB]

Would you have a source for where "Putin said" that ?

Of course he never made a public statement using those exact words, but it's been documented that was the expectation that he and his generals had at the start of the SMO. Alexander Lukashenko (who is basically Putin's other mouth) was on record as saying that Russia expected to take Kyiv in "three to four days", and the original invasion force brought their dress uniforms.

He has admitted that the operation has taken longer than expected.

Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged Wednesday that his “special military operation” in Ukraine is taking longer than expected but said it has succeeded in seizing new territory and added that his country’s nuclear weapons are deterring escalation of the conflict.

“Of course, it could be a lengthy process,” Putin said of the more than 9-month-old war that began with Russia’s invasion Feb. 24 and has displaced millions from their homes, and killed and wounded tens of thousands. Despite its length, he showed no signs of letting up, vowing to “consistently fight for our interests” and to “protect ourselves using all means available.” He reiterated his claim that he had no choice but to send in troops, saying that for years, the West responded to Russia’s security demands with “only spit in the face.”

Putin says Ukraine fight is taking longer than expected

Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledges that what he calls his “special military operation” in Ukraine is taking longer than expected.

apnews.com

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Aug 2025 ==

In addition, it seems that Zelenskyy has ruled out a ceasefire multiple times, so Russia is essentially following Zelenskyy's path.

He has directly called for a ceasefire:

Volodymyr Zelensky said it was a "positive sign" that Russia was considering ending the war in Ukraine after Russia offered "direct talks" this coming Thursday.

His comments came after Russian President Vladimir Putin invited Ukraine to take part in "serious negotiations" in a late-night address.

But the Ukrainian president said: "We expect Russia to confirm a ceasefire - complete, lasting and credible - starting tomorrow, 12 May, and Ukraine is ready to meet."

Western powers called for a 30-day pause in fighting to begin on Monday after European leaders spearheading the so-called "coalition of the willing" met in Kyiv on Saturday.

A key aide to Zelensky said there must be a ceasefire before direct talks over ending the war - which began with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 - could take place.

Zelensky says Ukraine is ready to meet Russia only if ceasefire agreed

The Ukrainian president reiterates calls for a 30-day ceasefire after Vladimir Putin offered "direct talks".

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[doc7austin]

Of course he never made a public statement using those exact words, but it's been documented that was the expectation that he and his generals had at the start of the SMO. Alexander Lukashenko (who is basically Putin's other mouth) was on record as saying that Russia expected to take Kyiv in "three to four days", and the original invasion force brought their dress uniforms.

The actual root of "And Putin said the special military operation would last days..." comes from General Milley:

Gen. Milley says Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if Russia decides to invade Ukraine: sources

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told lawmakers that Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine took place, multiple congressional sources tell Fox News.

www.foxnews.com

Putin says Ukraine fight is taking longer than expected

Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledges that what he calls his “special military operation” in Ukraine is taking longer than expected.

apnews.com

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Aug 2025 ==


He has directly called for a ceasefire:

Zelensky says Ukraine is ready to meet Russia only if ceasefire agreed

The Ukrainian president reiterates calls for a 30-day ceasefire after Vladimir Putin offered "direct talks".

www.bbc.co.uk

A 30-day ceasefire is not a complete ceasefire in my eyes.

I think a complete ceasefire has to coincide with the lifting of martial law in Ukraine.
That would mean, the borders must be opened, allowing every Ukrainian male to exit Ukraine.
Moreover, elections need to be held virtually immediately - which then begs the question how the Ukrainian government is about to ensure that 3 million Ukrainian citizens, who have fled to Russia, have the possibility to participate in these elections.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

Looks like that's two of us in Nidd - would you like to join my escape attempt? A 1 metre diameter tunnel 273km long on bearing 173 absolute will bring us out at Little Chalfont. I leave you to dispose of the 218,369 cubic metres of waste.

The actual root of "And Putin said the special military operation would last days..." comes from General Milley:

Gen. Milley says Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if Russia decides to invade Ukraine: sources

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told lawmakers that Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine took place, multiple congressional sources tell Fox News.

www.foxnews.com

A 30-day ceasefire is not a complete ceasefire in my eyes.

I think a complete ceasefire has to coincide with the lifting of martial law in Ukraine.
That would mean, the borders must be opened, allowing every Ukrainian male to exit Ukraine.
Moreover, elections need to be held virtually immediately - which then begs the question how the Ukrainian government is about to ensure that 3 million Ukrainian citizens, who have fled to Russia, have the possibility to participate in these elections.

So Ukraine opens its borders and lots of fighting age men leave. They try to hold an election and include people living under Russian occupation, that begs the question how exactly. In the meantime Russia rearms and then breaks the ceasefire.
Doesn't seem like good terms for a ceasefire for Ukraine.

 

[doc7austin]

So Ukraine opens its borders and lots of fighting age men leave.

So, let's assume that Russia agrees on a complete and infinite ceasefire !
What is the next step after that ? The Ukrainian government and parliament must lift martial law.
Or does the Ukrainian government intent to continue martial law indefinitely ?

They try to hold an election and include people living under Russian occupation, that begs the question how exactly.

There are millions of Ukrainians citizens who have fled the war to Mainland Russia.
In order to have legitimate elections in Ukraine, the Ukrainian government must strike a deal with the Russian government to setup polling places all around Russia to allow Ukrainian citizens to vote. My prediction is that most of these Ukrainian citizens, living in Mainland Russia, would vote for a pro-Russian candidates and parties.

And I assume any candidate, who proposes to leave the borders closed (so that fighting age men are not able to leave), will loose the elections.

In the meantime Russia rearms and then breaks the ceasefire.

Well, Russia will say Ukraine broke it. Ukraine will say Russia broke it.

Doesn't seem like good terms for a ceasefire for Ukraine.

I am reading from my your text, that a lifting of martial law (which necessitates opening the borders and holding elections) should not be part of a ceasefire deal ?

 

[35B]

So, let's assume that Russia agrees on a complete and infinite ceasefire !
What is the next step after that ? The Ukrainian government and parliament must lift martial law.
Or does the Ukrainian government intent to continue martial law indefinitely ?


There are millions of Ukrainians citizens who have fled the war to Mainland Russia.
In order to have legitimate elections in Ukraine, the Ukrainian government must strike a deal with the Russian government to setup polling places all around Russia to allow Ukrainian citizens to vote. My prediction is that most of these Ukrainian citizens, living in Mainland Russia, would vote for a pro-Russian candidates and parties.

And I assume any candidate, who proposes to leave the borders closed (so that fighting age men are not able to leave), will loose the elections.


Well, Russia will say Ukraine broke it. Ukraine will say Russia broke it.


I am reading from my your text, that a lifting of martial law (which necessitates opening the borders and holding elections) should not be part of a ceasefire deal ?

I suggest that there are many steps between a ceasefire and a peace settlement. Somewhere on that spectrum will require Ukraine to step back from the current level of mobilisation.

But for the proposals you suggest to work, there are also obligations on Russia to ensure fairness and equity.

 

[Noddy]

In order to have legitimate elections in Ukraine, the Ukrainian government must strike a deal with the Russian government to setup polling places all around Russia to allow Ukrainian citizens to vote. My prediction is that most of these Ukrainian citizens, living in Mainland Russia, would vote for a pro-Russian candidates and parties.

What about all the rest of the Ukrainians refugees spread across Europe (over 4 million compared to 1.2million in Russia). What about the 500 000 in the rest of the world? Should polling stations should not also be set up across these countries? According the UN this is where they are (top 20 countries only):

Country	Number of Registered Refugees	Data Date
Russian Federation	1,227,555	December 31, 2023
Germany	1,190,255	July 31, 2024
Poland	957,505	June 11, 2024
Czech Republic	370,980	August 4, 2024
United Kingdom	246,960	August 13, 2024
Spain	211,325	July 31, 2024
Italy	172,035	July 31, 2024
Romania	162,180	July 31, 2024
Moldova	125,890	September 1, 2024
Slovakia	125,460	September 1, 2024
Netherlands	117,840	July 31, 2024
Ireland	108,970	August 13, 2024
Belgium	81,350	July 31, 2024
Austria	78,815	August 19, 2024
Norway	74,240	August 19, 2024
Montenegro	74,170	June 30, 2024
Switzerland	66,990	August 15, 2024
France	66,560	June 30, 2024
Finland	64,415	July 31, 2024
Portugal	63,035	July 31, 2024

 

[Annetts key]

So, let's assume that Russia agrees on a complete and infinite ceasefire !
What is the next step after that ? The Ukrainian government and parliament must lift martial law.
Or does the Ukrainian government intent to continue martial law indefinitely ?


There are millions of Ukrainians citizens who have fled the war to Mainland Russia.
In order to have legitimate elections in Ukraine, the Ukrainian government must strike a deal with the Russian government to setup polling places all around Russia to allow Ukrainian citizens to vote. My prediction is that most of these Ukrainian citizens, living in Mainland Russia, would vote for a pro-Russian candidates and parties.

And I assume any candidate, who proposes to leave the borders closed (so that fighting age men are not able to leave), will loose the elections.


Well, Russia will say Ukraine broke it. Ukraine will say Russia broke it.


I am reading from my your text, that a lifting of martial law (which necessitates opening the borders and holding elections) should not be part of a ceasefire deal ?

Ukraine is a sovereign independent country with its own parliament.

When and how Ukraine holds elections are the business of Ukraine and their constitution. Similarly any arrangements about marshal law and and border restrictions.

Further, it is up to Ukraine if they accept or reject any plan or proposals from another country.

Putin could have ended the war at any point. But he has not. Remember, this conflict started in 2014 when Russia illegally first occupied Ukrainian territory.

 

[doc7austin]

When and how Ukraine holds elections are the business of Ukraine and their constitution.

Technically, the current President and the Parliament could extend martial law indefinitely.
But what would that say to the world about "democracy" in Ukraine ? You can be sure that European support would dwindle, if no elections are hold shortly after after a full ceasefire.
And Ukraine's budget is heavily dependent on Western money, so it is not completely the business of Ukraine.

What about all the rest of the Ukrainians refugees spread across Europe (over 4 million compared to 1.2million in Russia). What about the 500 000 in the rest of the world? Should polling stations should not also be set up across these countries? According the UN this is where they are (top 20 countries only):

This is the reason why the Ukrainian government is already hinting that the West must finance any elections, because of the sheer logistical challenges outside of Ukraine.

 

[ainsworth74]

Ukraine is a sovereign independent country with its own parliament.

When and how Ukraine holds elections are the business of Ukraine and their constitution. Similarly any arrangements about marshal law and and border restrictions.

Further, it is up to Ukraine if they accept or reject any plan or proposals from another country.

Putin could have ended the war at any point. But he has not. Remember, this conflict started in 2014 when Russia illegally first occupied Ukrainian territory.

I really shouldn't be surprised, but it still somehow surprises me when people come out of the woodwork and seem desperate to deny the above. Ukraine is a sovereign nation which sets its own laws and has it's own constitution. It is a nation which should enjoy peace within it's internationally recognised borders. It is Russia and Putin which has violated those borders, which has illegally annexed it's territory, which seeks to annex even more of its territory and wishes that Ukraine would subjugate itself to the whims of Moscow once again. If Ukraine stopped fighting tomorrow, Ukraine would cease to meaningfully exist. If Russia stopped fighting tomorrow, the war would end.

 

[Noddy]

This is the reason why the Ukrainian government is already hinting that the West must finance any elections, because of the sheer logistical challenges outside of Ukraine.

So the reality is that elections can’t be held anytime soon.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

I am reading from my your text, that a lifting of martial law (which necessitates opening the borders and holding elections) should not be part of a ceasefire deal ?

The lifting of martial law will occur when the sovereign Ukrainian parliament decides that the terms of a peace agreement, noting that a ceasefire is not a peace agreemen, means that it can safely be lifted.

The biggest issue is trusting the Russian government to actually stick to any agreement, invading Ukraine doesn't actually suggest they stick to them.

 

[doc7austin]

So the reality is that elections can’t be held anytime soon.

But who is going to govern Ukraine until elections then ?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Aug 2025 ==

The lifting of martial law will occur when the sovereign Ukrainian parliament decides that the terms of a peace agreement, noting that a ceasefire is not a peace agreemen, means that it can safely be lifted.

A peace agreement may never come, see North Korea/South Korea or Japan/Russia. Nonetheless, you see elections in Japan and South Korea.

And almost all EU leaders have declared yesterday that Ukraine should decide its future. In my eyes Ukrainians should have the right to vote on candidates, which may have different visions about a future peace agreement.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Aug 2025 ==

So the reality is that elections can’t be held anytime soon.

Reading the comments here, I must also say that I don't see any elections on the horizon.

 

[najaB]

For some reason the phrase "Don't feed the troll" comes to mind. Can't think why though...

 

[Annetts key]

But who is going to govern Ukraine until elections then ?

I believe the existing constitution deals with this issue.

Back when the U.K. was at war during WW2 (BTW are you a U.K. citizen?) what do you think happened with our Parliament? I'll give you a clue, no parliamentary elections took place in 1940, 1941, 1942, 1943 and 1944.

For some reason the phrase "Don't feed the troll" comes to mind. Can't think why though...

I don't know, this tune keeps going around in my head:

Nab him
Jab him
Tab him
Grab him
Stop that troll now!

 

[RailWonderer]

I really shouldn't be surprised, but it still somehow surprises me when people come out of the woodwork and seem desperate to deny the above. Ukraine is a sovereign nation which sets its own laws and has it's own constitution. It is a nation which should enjoy peace within it's internationally recognised borders. It is Russia and Putin which has violated those borders, which has illegally annexed it's territory, which seeks to annex even more of its territory and wishes that Ukraine would subjugate itself to the whims of Moscow once again. If Ukraine stopped fighting tomorrow, Ukraine would cease to meaningfully exist. If Russia stopped fighting tomorrow, the war would end.

Again, this is a slanted view that the western media narrates. If you follow third world (unaffiliated east/west politically) news media, the facts are that Russia acted to avoid the risk of losing its Black Sea naval bases to the US if Ukraine joined NATO. If the Warsaw Pact was still alive and suddenly a territory on our doorstep joined it, wouldn't we preemptively annex it to protect our own interests? Plus the West has acted in violation of international law in Kosovo and Iraq when it sees fit and installed puppet governments (akin to Afghanistan). Legal, illegal, the US isn't even an ICC member, which makes international law a bit of an applied-only-when-convenient joke.

If Ukraine had guaranteed Russia its neutrality, non alignment to east or western organisations like the EU and NATO, it wouldn't have been invaded. Small nations neighbouring big revanchist nations have to appease for their own safety. They didn't do that, and they've paid the price, because the law of force is the only law. Now if Ukraine holds elections - or even a referendum on a proposed peace deal/land swap - my guess is they'll open their embassies for voting and spread the word to their people now scattered around Europe and the world. Either that, or Zelensky resigns, triggering a wartime replacement of leader, if there is a constitutional mechanism to allow for that.

Stop that troll now!

I wouldn't call somebody who doesn't buy into the western narrative, or questions it, a troll.

 

[GusB]

Again, this is a slanted view that the western media narrates. If you follow third world (unaffiliated east/west politically) news media

Do you have links to these "third world news media"? It'd be helpful if the rest of us could see your information sources.

the facts are that Russia acted to avoid the risk of losing its Black Sea naval bases to the US if Ukraine joined NATO. If the Warsaw Pact was still alive and suddenly a territory on our doorstep joined it, wouldn't we preemptively annex it to protect our own interests? Plus the West has acted in violation of international law in Kosovo and Iraq when it sees fit and installed puppet governments (akin to Afghanistan). Legal, illegal, the US isn't even an ICC member, which makes international law a bit of an applied-only-when-convenient joke.

The fact is that Russia invaded another sovereign state. Period. Whether it acted to preserve its Black Sea naval bases or did it purely for giggles is irrelevant, Russia is the aggressor here.

I find it rather disturbing that certain people try to change the narrative to suggest that Ukraine is somehow responsible for its own invasion! Trump is one of those people; he can't seem to grasp the truth that it was Russia that invaded Ukraine and not the other way around.

If Ukraine had guaranteed Russia its neutrality, non alignment to east or western organisations like the EU and NATO, it wouldn't have been invaded.

It's not up to Russia to decide which nations its neighbours align with. Ukraine is not a member of the EU and nor is it a NATO member, but it was invaded anyway.

Small nations neighbouring big revanchist nations have to appease for their own safety. They didn't do that, and they've paid the price, because the law of force is the only law. Now if Ukraine holds elections - or even a referendum on a proposed peace deal/land swap - my guess is they'll open their embassies for voting and spread the word to their people now scattered around Europe and the world. Either that, or Zelensky resigns, triggering a wartime replacement of leader, if there is a constitutional mechanism to allow for that.

Twaddle. Small nations have as much right to exist without having to appease.

 

[Annetts key]

Again, this is a slanted view that the western media narrates. If you follow third world (unaffiliated east/west politically) news media, the facts are that Russia acted to avoid the risk of losing its Black Sea naval bases to the US if Ukraine joined NATO.

No, that's bull.

There was no problem until Putin. Since Putin took power, he has destroyed any chance of good relations between Russia and the West. You are buying Russian propaganda.

Besides which, Russia does have a port (used by their navy) on the Black Sea coast on their own territory.

And, the port / base lease by Russia in Crimea is Ukrainian territory. So Ukraine has full rights to not renew the lease or, if there are exit or termination clauses, to apply them if proper notice is given. However, before Putin started Russian illegal operations on Ukrainian territory, the Ukrainians were okay with leasing the port / base to Russia.

If the Warsaw Pact was still alive and suddenly a territory on our doorstep joined it, wouldn't we preemptively annex it to protect our own interests?

No. We wouldn’t.

Plus the West has acted in violation of international law in Kosovo and Iraq when it sees fit and installed puppet governments (akin to Afghanistan). Legal, illegal, the US isn't even an ICC member, which makes international law a bit of an applied-only-when-convenient joke.

I think you will find that Russia has broken international law far more often than any alleged violation of international law by Western countries.

If Ukraine had guaranteed Russia its neutrality, non alignment to east or western organisations like the EU and NATO, it wouldn't have been invaded.

That's more Russian crap. Putin invaded to prevent Ukraine from being able to join NATO and to destabilise it. Remember, this started in 2014. Why should any sovereign independent country that has not started any wars be forced to guaranteed its neutrality to any other country?

Besides which, any agreement or treaty with Russia under Putin is not worth the paper it is written on. Russia will break any such agreement or treaty whenever it suits it. So there is absolutely no point in even attempting to agree any treaty with Russia or Putin. Putin ONLY respects military force. Putin doesn’t even respect Trump. Russian state TV is always making fun of Trump and Putin is playing Trump. This upcoming "peace" meeting between them is very likely to fail to achieve anything useful in terms of "peace" or any kind of ceasefire. As per normal, Putin is playing Trump.

Small nations neighbouring big revanchist nations have to appease for their own safety.

If Ukraine appeases Putin, there won't be a Ukraine and Putin will be eyeing up the next country that he wants to destabilise...

Now if Ukraine holds elections - or even a referendum on a proposed peace deal/land swap - my guess is they'll open their embassies for voting and spread the word to their people now scattered around Europe and the world. Either that, or Zelensky resigns, triggering a wartime replacement of leader, if there is a constitutional mechanism to allow for that.

Why would the government do any of that? Zelensky has the backing of the majority of Ukrainian citizens according to polls within Ukraine. And under the constitution, elections currently cannot be held. Even the opposition parties in Ukraine agree that while the war continues and/or Russia is a threat to Ukraine, elections should not be held.

Would you queue in order to vote if you were likely to come under attack from an enemy?

Video of Russian state media taking various digs at Trump...

Russian state TV show “Sunday Evening With Vladimir Solovyov,” featuring host Vladimir Solovyov, political scientist Dmitry Kulikov, military expert Evgeny Buzhinsky, political scientist Sergey Mikheyev and blogger Alexander Sosnovsky.

 

[Grimsby town]

Again, this is a slanted view that the western media narrates. If you follow third world (unaffiliated east/west politically) news media, the facts are that Russia acted to avoid the risk of losing its Black Sea naval bases to the US if Ukraine joined NATO. If the Warsaw Pact was still alive and suddenly a territory on our doorstep joined it, wouldn't we preemptively annex it to protect our own interests? Plus the West has acted in violation of international law in Kosovo and Iraq when it sees fit and installed puppet governments (akin to Afghanistan). Legal, illegal, the US isn't even an ICC member, which makes international law a bit of an applied-only-when-convenient joke.

The UK hasn't invaded Ireland despite the fact Ireland's EU membership makes things more difficult for the UK.

The EU haven't invaded Hungary despite Orban making life very difficult for the EU and clearly being somewhat in the Russian sphere of influence. The EU have leveraged diplomatic and financial means to try and influence Hungary. There's clearly plenty of ways to influence countries including far more positive actions such as increasing trade and providing economic support. Even Orban can only push the EU so far and doesn't want to risk EU membership, so clearly these more positive influences are effective.

Russia clearly places military force far higher up the list of strategic tools than Europe does. If it wasn't a corrupt and backward country with low living standards outside of central Moscow, perhaps it would have more to offer Ukraine in terms of economic and strategic partnerships.

Edit: The EU didn't invade the UK when we left the EU despite us leaving their sphere of influence.

 

[martin butler]

Putin, needs the war to continue, to hold on to his own power, if Russia stops fighting, then his own problems start to pile up, Families will ask, where's my son, where's my father, money and jobs will be in short supply, and his enemies internally, will grow stronger, Ukraine will be rebuilt and look towards the west, and the EU, It will join NATO, and rearm with European arms, made in Ukrainian factories, So whilst Russians are getting poorer, Ukrainians will be living a better standard of living, and Russians will see it, Putin will be blamed, and that's why he can't allow it to happen.

 

[Noddy]

you follow third world (unaffiliated east/west politically) news media,

You think ‘third world’ news is unaffiliated? It’s massively influenced by outside parties, largely China, but also Russia itself, in order to try present an anti ‘West’ outlook in Africa, Latin America and large parts of Asia.

 

[doc7austin]

Zelensky has the backing of the majority of Ukrainian citizens according to polls within Ukraine.

You refer most likely to the polls of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).
These polls are highly unreliable. They call people up. Who on the phone in Ukraine - not knowing who is on the other side of the line - is going to make critial remarks about the current government ?

Even the opposition parties in Ukraine agree that while the war continues and/or Russia is a threat to Ukraine, elections should not be held.

I am not sure you are right on that. A lot of opposition parties have been banned (with actual elected deputies in them). Secondly, "declaring Russia a threat to Ukraine" for extending martial law indefinitely is a recipe for a dictatorship.

The issue of elections in Ukraine is currently a major stumbling block in most talks between Ukraine and its Western partners. No one has yet found a way to resolve it, because martial law forbids elections. A lifting of martial law would require the government to reopen the borders, which may cause millions of males to flee the country.
And holding elections and keeping the borders closes is not a realistic option. The ruling party/head of state would certainly loose the election then.

Why should any sovereign independent country that has not started any wars be forced to guaranteed its neutrality to any other country?

Ukraine has participated with its own troops in an illegal war of aggression - in the Iraq War ! You can imagine how popular Ukraine is in the eyes of many people from the Middle East.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Aug 2025 ==

Putin, needs the war to continue, to hold on to his own power, if Russia stops fighting, then his own problems start to pile up, Families will ask, where's my son, where's my father,

I think Ukrainian families will also ask "where's my son, where's my father?"

and the EU, It will join NATO,

In each case it only takes one country to veto that. And while Slovakia and Hungary do it pubicly. Many other EU/NATO country are also against EU/NATO membership of Ukraine, but they are not saying it out loud. And if Kickle or Le Pen come to power, then the prospect of EU membership of Ukraine will drop to zero.

and rearm with European arms, made in Ukrainian factories,

It is very risky to build a weapons factory in Ukraine.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Aug 2025 ==

I find it rather disturbing that certain people try to change the narrative to suggest that Ukraine is somehow responsible for its own invasion! Trump is one of those people; he can't seem to grasp the truth that it was Russia that invaded Ukraine and not the other way around.

The USA are an independent and souvereign nation. Its people made its democratic choice in electing Donald Trump.
Trump has been consistent for 25 years now - he was against in Iraq War, which Bush started in 2003. Ukraine participated in that illegal war of aggression. So I am not surprised that Trump holds a grudge against Ukraine.

Moreover, I read here that Ukraine is an independent and souvereign nation and should make its own decision on martial law, elections, borders etc. Fine, but I think the USA should have the same right to determine within in its constitutional order how to deal with Ukraine. And the president has the last word on that - he can order and stop military, monetary, tariff support at will.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I am not sure you are right on that. A lot of opposition parties have been banned (with actual elected deputies in them). Secondly, "declaring Russia a threat to Ukraine" for extending martial law indefinitely is a recipe for a dictatorship.

Those banned opposition parties are well known to be linked to Russia. There's every reason to ban them, particularly the "Opposition Platform for Life" which is a front for Medvedchuk, an oligarch with close links to Putin and who vanished within hours of the war starting.

The issue of elections in Ukraine is currently a major stumbling block in most talks between Ukraine and its Western partners.

No-one cares in Europe about this topic, it's an issue only for the Republicans in the US who want a pro-Moscow puppet in control there. Everyone else correctly understands that the idea of holding an election in wartime is completely absurd and not feasible.

It is very risky to build a weapons factory in Ukraine.

Rheinmetall are doing just that.

You think ‘third world’ news is unaffiliated? It’s massively influenced by outside parties, largely China, but also Russia itself, in order to try present an anti ‘West’ outlook in Africa, Latin America and large parts of Asia.

It's the oldest trick in the book. It doesn't cost much to create an 'independent' news media in the third world, which can then be used to influence large amounts of people.

 

[RailWonderer]

Do you have links to these "third world news media"? It'd be helpful if the rest of us could see your information sources.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/topic/ukraine-war You can't only read UK news because the FCO, MI5 and the MOD coordinate the media messaging to invoke fear and hatred of Russia, see the Daily Express for example, portraying Putin as a cartoonish Hitler like conqueror of all of Europe. The Indian papers cite westen hyprocrisy multiple times around oil purchases

India faces highest US tariff rate at 50%, but Trump's ‘Russian oil’ reason on slippery ground

Trump due to meet Russia's Putin, and a deal there could trump the rationale for punitive tariffs; China, EU continue to buy Russian oil but are not penalised | India News

www.hindustantimes.com

"European countries import Russian crude too. And China has so far not faced punitive tariffs despite leading the world in energy purchases from Russia. India is second after China in oil imports from Russia."

and are hopeful peace summits will succeed

India endorses Trump-Putin Alaska meet, sees hope for Ukraine conflict end

The ministry of external affairs said that the meeting holds the promise of bringing to an end the conflict in Ukraine and opening up the prospects for peace. | India News

www.hindustantimes.com

"This meeting holds the promise of bringing to an end the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and opening up the prospects for peace. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said on several occasions, “This is not an era of war”,” it added."

I also check the ISW, which western media outlets like Sky, and our broadsheets like the Telegraph and FT refer to for military movements

Lessons of the Minsk Deal: Breaking the Cycle of Russia's War Against Ukraine

Some peace deals lead to peace, others to more war. The Minsk II deal aimed to end Russia’s limited invasion of Ukraine in 2015 but instead laid the groundwork for the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022. The United States must learn from the Minsk deal or risk a direct Russia-NATO conflict that...

understandingwar.org

They're hawkish regarding Russia, but stick with details and facts.

The fact is that Russia invaded another sovereign state. Period. Whether it acted to preserve its Black Sea naval bases or did it purely for giggles is irrelevant, Russia is the aggressor here.

I find it rather disturbing that certain people try to change the narrative to suggest that Ukraine is somehow responsible for its own invasion! Trump is one of those people; he can't seem to grasp the truth that it was Russia that invaded Ukraine and not the other way around.

Twaddle. Small nations have as much right to exist without having to appease.

Of course it has a right, but what does a right mean when the only rule is the rule of force? They should have accepted the reality and protected their own interests. Of course if Ukraine was a Balkan nation it wouldn't have that problem to think of, but it isn't. It doesn't help to have such an oversimplified view of things.

No. We wouldn’t.

Perhaps not but NATO forces would be placing troops, artillery and missiles all over its borders, and political coups would follow.

Why would the government do any of that? Zelensky has the backing of the majority of Ukrainian citizens according to polls within Ukraine. And under the constitution, elections currently cannot be held. Even the opposition parties in Ukraine agree that while the war continues and/or Russia is a threat to Ukraine, elections should not be held.

Would you queue in order to vote if you were likely to come under attack from an enemy?

Video of Russian state media taking various digs at Trump...

Elections will be held in a ceasefire as per the constitution, of course they won't be held in wartime. Russian state media ridicules all of the west, it's a Soviet carryover to make fun of us, that's the Russian way.

Besides which, any agreement or treaty with Russia under Putin is not worth the paper it is written on. Russia will break any such agreement or treaty whenever it suits it. So there is absolutely no point in even attempting to agree any treaty with Russia or Putin. Putin ONLY respects military force. Putin doesn’t even respect Trump. Russian state TV is always making fun of Trump and Putin is playing Trump. This upcoming "peace" meeting between them is very likely to fail to achieve anything useful in terms of "peace" or any kind of ceasefire. As per normal, Putin is playing Trump.

Perhaps, but it's a lack of trust that led to this crisis, but I agree Putin respects force and not appeasement, but when you don't have the force, there isn't much choice.

Edit: The EU didn't invade the UK when we left the EU despite us leaving their sphere of influence.

Hungary is playing its cards right, balancing east and west.

We didn't leave the EU to ally with Russia, we left to make our own laws outside of Brussels, and to limit immigration (both of which haven't been done). We will always be western aligned and everyone knew that, alliance isn't a question for us. Why would Hungary antagonise Russia given much of their energy comes from Russia? Same with India. Germany has suffered with the sabotage of Nordstream and is paying dearly for it economically.