Proposed new Channel Tunnel services discussion

[Brubulus]

A question regarding Schengen Exit checks. If these, alongside UK entry checks were moved to London, wouldn't this mean that most illegal entrants would be unable to reach UK Border Force in the first place, and therefore be unable to claim asylum to a UK official. Instead they would simply be prevented from leaving Schengen, in London and would effectively be required to return the way they came, meaning that moving inbound border checks to London, would not actually enable a loophole for illegal migration.

 

[stuu]

A question regarding Schengen Exit checks. If these, alongside UK entry checks were moved to London, wouldn't this mean that most illegal entrants would be unable to reach UK Border Force in the first place, and therefore be unable to claim asylum to a UK official. Instead they would simply be prevented from leaving Schengen, in London and would effectively be required to return the way they came, meaning that moving inbound border checks to London, would not actually enable a loophole for illegal migration.

They are on UK soil, so legally they can claim asylum. That's the law, both UK and international convention

 

[TheWierdOne]

Wee update to the Temple Mills Shenanigans. LSPH, the railway infrastructure operator formerly known as HS1, has endorsed the ORR report, and gone further by stating that their own independent assessment reckons there is even more capacity than outlined by the ORR.

Key points below

HS1 owner supports report that says Temple Mills has space for Eurostar rival

London St Pancras Highspeed says report commissioned by Office of Rail and Road "underestimates available capacity".

www.railmagazine.com

The landlord of Temple Mills International Depot supports the findings of a report that suggests there is capacity for a second operator at the site.

London St Pancras Highspeed (LSPH) has said it “fully endorses” findings made by Ipex, which was commissioned by the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) to evaluate whether the east London depot can accommodate a rival to Eurostar.

The response, which was only published in late July, said: “BWB judges up to 20 trainsets (Ipex's exceptional figure) could be accommodated without affecting depot operations. Based on BWB’s analysis, the 20 sets total is more than what Eurostar and a potential second operator would require based on indicative timetables they have supplied.

LSPH also noted the Ipex study did not examine the “integral” Orient Way Sidings, currently leased to Network Rail by Eurostar for use by Greater Anglia.
It said: “Eurostar has the contractual right to evict its current users at any time for the purposes of international rail business, with notice. To meet the needs of a demand from a prospective operator would appear to meet this requirement.”

 

[zwk500]

Wee update to the Temple Mills Shenanigans. LSPH, the railway infrastructure operator formerly known as HS1, has endorsed the ORR report, and gone further by stating that their own independent assessment reckons there is even more capacity than outlined by the ORR.

Key points below

HS1 owner supports report that says Temple Mills has space for Eurostar rival

London St Pancras Highspeed says report commissioned by Office of Rail and Road "underestimates available capacity".

www.railmagazine.com

Booting GA out of Orient Way is not going to be without issues for the domestic train service.

 

[Trainbike46]

Booting GA out of Orient Way is not going to be without issues for the domestic train service.

I doubt LSPH cares about that though

 

[TheWierdOne]

I doubt LSPH cares about that though

My sentiments exactly, it’s not like they need to worry overmuch about relations with domestic operators other than Southeastern. If another international operator comes along and says « Hey, I’ve got 200m units, I’m happy to shunt them between Orient Way and Temple Mills » then I would’ve thought LSPH would be serving eviction notices on GA within the hour.

 

[zwk500]

My sentiments exactly, it’s not like they need to worry overmuch about relations with domestic operators other than Southeastern. If another international operator comes along and says « Hey, I’ve got 200m units, I’m happy to shunt them between Orient Way and Temple Mills » then I would’ve thought LSPH would be serving eviction notices on GA within the hour.

Aside from the fact LSPH would be giving notice to NR instead of evicting GA, and that emptying the sidings before they are ready to implement changes would simply be wasting revenue, the idea that this would be a purely commercial transactional decision and not an extremely messy political one is laughable when LSPH hold a concession from the government to operate HS1.

 

[TheWierdOne]

Aside from the fact LSPH would be giving notice to NR instead of evicting GA, and that emptying the sidings before they are ready to implement changes would simply be wasting revenue, the idea that this would be a purely commercial transactional decision and not an extremely messy political one is laughable when LSPH hold a concession from the government to operate HS1.

You’re definitely right that LSPH would only evict when they had an alternative client lined up, but would politics play into this all that much? I’m not saying it wouldn’t be a pain in terms of optics for the government but is there much the government could do about it?

From the sounds of it LSPH has fairly complete control over Orient Way until the concession expires, and the UK government would have to be mad to try and override a binding commercial agreement unless they had a very solid legal argument to put before the courts.

 

[SynthD]

It’s also possible that the current user (GA) will elect to move out, to serve the governments higher priority of international users.

 

[HSTEd]

It’s also possible that the current user (GA) will elect to move out, to serve the governments higher priority of international users.

Is there any actual evidence of government placing a "higher priority" on international users, beyond the usual empty rhetoric about getting competition on HS1 and expanding services?

 

[Bald Rick]

It’s also possible that the current user (GA) will elect to move out, to serve the governments higher priority of international users.

They would only ‘elect’ to do that on instruction from HM Government.

To put this in a Government perspective…

In the Red corner, the voters of Essex, Cambridgeshire, Suffolk and Norfolk who would see a significant reduction in train service across the board if GA were to leave Orient Way (with no replacement facility), who’s train fares are effectively paid directly to HMT to reduce the net cost of the railway

In the Blue corner, Jean de Foreigner, who will see a handful of extra trains daily on two or three international routes, where the fares paid go directly to the (almost entirely foreign) shareholders of the european operators, some of which are actually foreign Governments.


I wonder which way it will play out…

 

[TheWierdOne]

They would only ‘elect’ to do that on instruction from HM Government.

To put this in a Government perspective…

In the Red corner, the voters of Essex, Cambridgeshire, Suffolk and Norfolk who would see a significant reduction in train service across the board if GA were to leave Orient Way (with no replacement facility), who’s train fares are effectively paid directly to HMT to reduce the net cost of the railway

In the Blue corner, Jean de Foreigner, who will see a handful of extra trains daily on two or three international routes, where the fares paid go directly to the (almost entirely foreign) shareholders of the european operators, some of which are actually foreign Governments.


I wonder which way it will play out…

Before we get too bogged down in politics, is Greater Anglia actually dependent on Orient Way to run services at a current level?

 

[Trainbike46]

They would only ‘elect’ to do that on instruction from HM Government.

To put this in a Government perspective…

In the Red corner, the voters of Essex, Cambridgeshire, Suffolk and Norfolk who would see a significant reduction in train service across the board if GA were to leave Orient Way (with no replacement facility), who’s train fares are effectively paid directly to HMT to reduce the net cost of the railway

In the Blue corner, Jean de Foreigner, who will see a handful of extra trains daily on two or three international routes, where the fares paid go directly to the (almost entirely foreign) shareholders of the european operators, some of which are actually foreign Governments.


I wonder which way it will play out…

I'm sure the government would prioritise GA, and the ORR notably didn't include Orient Way in their assessment (based on the statements from LSPH).

However, if an extra HS1-operator showed up, it is clear LSPH would prioritise them. If the contracts are aligned in the way LSPH says, and GA can be kicked out with notice, they would presumably do that unless they were somehow incentivised not to.

However, I think it is key to note that they say that Eurostar can kick them out. And Eurostar would likely much rather lease out orient way to GA than to a new international competitor, so is unlikely to kick GA out unless they are either forced to, or it is to expand their own operations.

The way around this would be to find alternative sidings for GA instead of orient way, so they can maintain their service level and HS1 services can expand.

 

[zwk500]

Before we get too bogged down in politics, is Greater Anglia actually dependent on Orient Way to run services at a current level?

Today's movements: https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/se...25-08-11/0000-2359?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt

All would need to be displaced somewhere, ideally without requiring additional units or crew to do so.

 

[TheWierdOne]

Today's movements: https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/se...25-08-11/0000-2359?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt

All would need to be displaced somewhere, ideally without requiring additional units or crew to do so.

That is quite the turnover, although presumably displacing these would be easier than finding a new UIC gauge deplt

 

[zwk500]

That is quite the turnover, although presumably displacing these would be easier than finding a new UIC gauge deplt

Please suggest up to 3 suitable alternative sites for GA that will be easier to provide than building a new UIC-gauge depot at Singlewell loops just outside Ebbsfleet. Give the speed and congestion differences, it's a lot easier for the HS Trains to go further out from London than it will be for GA.

 

[Bald Rick]

Before we get too bogged down in politics, is Greater Anglia actually dependent on Orient Way to run services at a current level?

Yes, the service for both peaks relies on empty services departing Liverpool St in the morning, and arriving back there in the evening, with stabling somewhere close to London that doesn’t take up capacity east of Stratford that is used for freight.

 

[TheWierdOne]

Please suggest up to 3 suitable alternative sites for GA that will be easier to provide than building a new UIC-gauge depot at Singlewell loops just outside Ebbsfleet. Give the speed and congestion differences, it's a lot easier for the HS Trains to go further out from London than it will be for GA.

I’m not an expert but as a general rule of thumb, squishing 8/10 GB gauge stabling sidings into the existing network near London would be a cheaper and quicker prospect than a whole new UIC depot would it not?

If Singlewell is the nearest suitable greenfield site then any new operator is going to lobby LSPH pretty hard to let them use Orient Way to expand TMI’s capacity. A depot at Singlewell would roughly double the amount of dead running between the depot and St Pancras.

But if you insist I could give you one potential site at least: in the area of Ripple Lane. There’s some land just west of where HS1 emerges from the tunnel from Stratford where you could, with some creative track layouts and realignment, stick in carriage sidings to suit.

Edit: darn it I got confused looking at junctions. You can’t access Liverpool Street from there I don’t think. Alternative site would be Bow Goods Yard

 

[Bald Rick]

If Singlewell is the nearest suitable greenfield site then any new operator is going to lobby LSPH pretty hard to let them use Orient Way to expand TMI’s capacity. A depot at Singlewell would roughly double the amount of dead running between the depot and St Pancras.

Empty running from Singlewell, or even Ashford, is not an issue.

Alternative site would be Bow Goods Yard

That’s a prime development site, which has been granted outline planning consent.

 

[HSTEd]

Empty running from Ashford would take about half an hour without stops.

Annoying, certainly, but hardly unworkable.
Ebbsfleet is only nineteen minutes on a Javelin!

 

[Bald Rick]

Empty running from Ashford would take about half an hour without stops.

And from Singlewell, about 18. It’s 12 from Temple Mills…

 

[TheWierdOne]

And from Singlewell, about 18. It’s 12 from Temple Mills…

Singlewell in that case seems more likely realistic, I’m not sure Ashford would be as that’s a lot of track access to pay without any revenue to cover it directly

 

[Bald Rick]

Singlewell in that case seems more likely realistic, I’m not sure Ashford would be as that’s a lot of track access to pay without any revenue to cover it directly

Ashford really wouldn’t be a problem. Lots of examples of long empty trips all over the country. Some for over a hundred miles.

 

[TheWierdOne]

Yes but the track access charges for HS1 are significantly higher than domestic routes, would that not eat into the margins? Unless there’s discounted charging for ECS movements

 

[HSTEd]

Yes but the track access charges for HS1 are significantly higher than domestic routes, would that not eat into the margins? Unless there’s discounted charging for ECS movements

I would expect a deal would be struck with the concessionaire. After all it's not as if the line is particularly busy.

 

[zwk500]

Yes but the track access charges for HS1 are significantly higher than domestic routes, would that not eat into the margins? Unless there’s discounted charging for ECS movements

It will eat into the margins, but the owner of NR/GA might be willing to do a deal to prevent their own costs from escalating by far more.

 

[cle]

Hmmm... this feels like airline games. Competitor announces a route at your hub/home city, you follow suit, beat them down, they retreat, you close route. A bit like we see when someone opens Gatwick and BA temporarily do the same.

Eurostar has record travellers, and what they really want is full trains (currently limited) and the highest fares possible. Their intentions for farther-flung services (vs the evidence of actual contraction of variety of destinations) - is purely to fend off competitors via the depot as a symbolic issue.

 

[NCT]

Airlines can can do temporary 'predatory' expansion because they can cycle the same aircraft over different routes across their network. Eurostar units are captive - if they want to predatorily expand their services to fend off competitors then they have to buy the trains in the first place and once they've got the trains they can't realistically redeploy them to another route. They wouldn't want to sell their trains either (or terminate a short lease) as that would just make the assets available to competitors. Unless they do this kind of predatory expansion strategically only during the overlap of old and new fleets ...

 

[Trainbike46]

Hmmm... this feels like airline games. Competitor announces a route at your hub/home city, you follow suit, beat them down, they retreat, you close route. A bit like we see when someone opens Gatwick and BA temporarily do the same.

Eurostar has record travellers, and what they really want is full trains (currently limited) and the highest fares possible. Their intentions for farther-flung services (vs the evidence of actual contraction of variety of destinations) - is purely to fend off competitors via the depot as a symbolic issue.

I wouldn't say it's the same; services removed never had competition, and no-one was ever planning to compete on those (South of France directs, Disney directs). New services that stuck and continued were the Amsterdams, and no-one has seriously suggested competing on those other than possibly DB years before Eurostar started to offer them.

If it was just about maximising the amount of depot space they needed, they could just increase the Paris frequency to half-hourly and increase the Amsterdam frequency more quickly.

 

[martin2345uk]

Article on Rail Magazine’s site says Virgin have “Virgin and Alstom have entered a binding agreement for the train manufacturer to supply 12 of its Avelia Stream sets for the company’s Channel Tunnel bid which it is currently exploring.”

Virgin opts for single-decker trains for its Channel Tunnel bid

Virgin and Alstom have entered a binding agreement for the train manufacturer to supply 12 of its Avelia Stream sets

www.railmagazine.com