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Russia invades Ukraine

RailWonderer

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That may have been the case in the past, but the vast majority of Ukrainians, including Russian speaking ones, are now very much against Russia after seeing what the Russians are capable of.

And there can't be many "fighting age" Ukrainian men left in the occupied territory. Do you think their families that have been left without a father/husband will appreciate Russia now? Heck, in much of the occupied Donetsk and Luhansk areas, they don't even have a reliable drinking water supply.

Putin and the Russia government (and state) have now clearly demonstrated that they don't care one bit about human lives regardless of nationality or what language they speak. Putin only cares about himself and his own power.
These people are so poor and can endure misery like medieveal peasants. Combined with Russian state propaganda they'll still be proud to be Russian, even when toothless and freezing in the winter. Sadly that's how I see it. Those eastern Ukrainians that oppose Russian occupation will flee to the west of the country if they haven't already. It's mostly old age pensioners left who are too old to up sticks and were raised on Soviet propaganda. Russian families will probably be moved into occupied territories, Russian banks have already opened up in occupied territories and Russian ersatz western brands are following suit - similar to Israeli tactics but without ersatz western brands.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

As for the overthrow of the Yanukovych government, well, Yanukovych signed a deal to end the protests with the opposition, but he chose to flee rather than implementing the deal. There was also a clear supermajority for removing him, including votes from his own Party of Regions. Essentially, he abdicated, and the only way out was for the Ukrainian Parliament to deal with it themselves.
He had to flee because that's what leaders do when there is escalating violence and far right militias in the capital. When the Taliban were storming into Kabul like a hot knife through butter, the western backed Ashraf Ghani similarly fled to the west, likewise Assad fleeing Syria to Russia. That said illegally overthrowing in those circumstances was the only thing they could do and even Russia accepted the new Poroshenko government.
 
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edwin_m

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All regions of Ukraine voted for independence in 1991, even Crimea and Sevastopol although there the majority was under 60% and the turnout pretty low.
 

Annetts key

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These people are so poor and can endure misery like medieveal peasants. Combined with Russian state propaganda they'll still be proud to be Russian, even when toothless and freezing in the winter. Sadly that's how I see it. Those eastern Ukrainians that oppose Russian occupation will flee to the west of the country if they haven't already. It's mostly old age pensioners left who are too old to up sticks and were raised on Soviet propaganda. Russian families will probably be moved into occupied territories
Maybe you should watch this video:
(linked to video describes what the Donbas part was like before and compares what it is like today)
 

brad465

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Trump and Putin are set to meet in Alaska this time next week. I wonder if Putin will try and get Alaska back in the process? ;)


Trump and Putin to meet in Alaska next Friday
​

Donald Trump has just confirmed his face-to-face meeting with Vladimir Putin will take place in the US state of Alaska next Friday.

He wrote on social media: "The highly anticipated meeting between myself, as President of the United States of America, and President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, will take place next Friday, August 15, 2025, in the Great State of Alaska.

"Further details to follow. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"
 

ainsworth74

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Loppylugs

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No doubt this time next week Zelensky will be the culprit of everything and T.Rump will be cuddling Putin again. How on earth Donald can't see how Putin is playing hm for the fool that he is is mind-boggling. All this talk of further sanctions on Russia makes one wonder why they weren't implemented yonks ago.
 

Ivor

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No doubt this time next week Zelensky will be the culprit of everything and T.Rump will be cuddling Putin again. How on earth Donald can't see how Putin is playing hm for the fool that he is is mind-boggling. All this talk of further sanctions on Russia makes one wonder why they weren't implemented yonks ago.
Spot on, I wonder if the nodding dog Vance will be there? What another great photo opportunity for The Donald.

And the invaded country that it affects doesn’t get anywhere near the most important meeting.
 

Cowley

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No doubt this time next week Zelensky will be the culprit of everything and T.Rump will be cuddling Putin again. How on earth Donald can't see how Putin is playing hm for the fool that he is is mind-boggling. All this talk of further sanctions on Russia makes one wonder why they weren't implemented yonks ago.

I think Trump knows absolutely that Putin is playing him, but I think Putin has things on Trump that he’s terrified will come out if he decides to go in hard on Russia.

Trump quite possibly believed that it would be easy to strong arm Ukraine into giving up some of the territory Russia already occupies to make it look like everyone is happy. It’s turning out that Ukraine are not happy though and I assume he’ll spit his dummy out and blame Zelenskyy again over the next couple of days.

To me, all of Trumps actions over this make far more sense if you look at it through the eyes of someone who’s worried about what he’s been told will happen if he sides with Ukraine and does things that actually make a meaningful difference to how Russia is able to continue with this war.
 

brad465

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I think Trump knows absolutely that Putin is playing him, but I think Putin has things on Trump that he’s terrified will come out if he decides to go in hard on Russia.

Trump quite possibly believed that it would be easy to strong arm Ukraine into giving up some of the territory Russia already occupies to make it look like everyone is happy. It’s turning out that Ukraine are not happy though and I assume he’ll spit his dummy out and blame Zelenskyy again over the next couple of days.

To me, all of Trumps actions over this make far more sense if you look at it through the eyes of someone who’s worried about what he’s been told will happen if he sides with Ukraine and does things that actually make a meaningful difference to how Russia is able to continue with this war.
At first I thought why would Putin have something on Trump that would ruin him, given Trump seems to be able to brush off every scandal he's involved in. Then all of a sudden he got very irritated about the constant wrangling over the Epstein files, with even MAGA loyalists turning on him over the issue, and now the idea Putin has something on Trump seems more credible.
 

ainsworth74

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As I understand it the deal seems to be that Ukraine gives up some territory in return for being able to give up some more of its territory.
And then later on it gets to give up even more territory before finally giving up it's independence.

Deal of the century here people!
 

Wilts Wanderer

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At first I thought why would Putin have something on Trump that would ruin him, given Trump seems to be able to brush off every scandal he's involved in. Then all of a sudden he got very irritated about the constant wrangling over the Epstein files, with even MAGA loyalists turning on him over the issue, and now the idea Putin has something on Trump seems more credible.

Almost makes you wonder what Mossad has on him…
 

DustyBin

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I think Trump knows absolutely that Putin is playing him, but I think Putin has things on Trump that he’s terrified will come out if he decides to go in hard on Russia.

Trump quite possibly believed that it would be easy to strong arm Ukraine into giving up some of the territory Russia already occupies to make it look like everyone is happy. It’s turning out that Ukraine are not happy though and I assume he’ll spit his dummy out and blame Zelenskyy again over the next couple of days.

To me, all of Trumps actions over this make far more sense if you look at it through the eyes of someone who’s worried about what he’s been told will happen if he sides with Ukraine and does things that actually make a meaningful difference to how Russia is able to continue with this war.

I think this is entirely possible. Another explanation is simply that Trump is genuinely fearful of escalation. In Europe we tend to dismiss or even laugh at the lurid threats made by the likes of Medvedev and Peskov, but I get the impression a sizeable chunk of the US population take them seriously. (This is based on a couple of articles I’ve read and a few anecdotal conversations, so I may be wrong!). You’d like to think Trump’s advisers would be, well, advising but who knows with this administration…
 

najaB

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You’d like to think Trump’s advisers would be, well, advising but who knows with this administration
The job of a Trump advisor is to tell him that he's correct. If you disagree, you're liable to get fired.
 

43096

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The job of a Trump advisor is to tell him that he's correct. If you disagree, you're liable to get fired.
Whereas the job of a Putin advisor is to tell him that he's correct. If you disagree, you're liable to fall out of an upstairs window.
 

Killingworth

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Trump is unlikely to fully understand the background to Russian perceptions around the Baltic and Black Sea. They're steeped in history, a feeling of stifling encirclement devoid of year round free access to ice free ports. Feelings of deep resentment of any outside interventions.

Napolean's attack in 1812 and its defeat.

The Crimean War in the 1860s when they were defeated by an alliance between the Ottoman Empire, France and Britain.

Post WW1 when they lost the Baltic states after the military intervention of Britain. Recovery in 1940 when we were watching Norway and France. Attack by and loss to Hitler in 1941. Recovery in 1944 with subsequent deep fear and loathing on both sides.

1991 break up with Baltic states independence.

There are plent of festering grievances at the back of Putin's mind. Trump's grievances are of a different kind and clear for all to see. Putin seems to know how to flatter him.
 

ainsworth74

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Whereas the job of a Putin advisor is to tell him that he's correct. If you disagree, you're liable to fall out of an upstairs window.
And that's why American isn't an authoritarian dictatorship!



















Yet...
 

DustyBin

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The job of a Trump advisor is to tell him that he's correct. If you disagree, you're liable to get fired.

I’ve literally just read an article about Melania’s influence on Donald. Apparently there’s an increasingly widely held belief that she’s the only person who can tell it to him as it is.
 

nlogax

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I’ve literally just read an article about Melania’s influence on Donald. Apparently there’s an increasingly widely held belief that she’s the only person who can tell it to him as it is.

I'm still amazed she stuck with him after the 2020 election. Completely assumed she'd be out the door and down the road once Biden's victory was actually confirmed. Maybe she really is the only moderating voice he'll listen to.
 

najaB

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I'm still amazed she stuck with him after the 2020 election. Completely assumed she'd be out the door and down the road once Biden's victory was actually confirmed. Maybe she really is the only moderating voice he'll listen to.
I suspect she had a better lawyer than his when they negotiated the prenuptial agreement.
 

43096

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After 20 years of marriage she deserves it!
Not sure I have much sympathy. They rather remind me of the legendary Mrs Merton (Caroline Aherne) to Debbie McGee question: “So what first attracted you to the millionaire Paul Daniels?”
 

Cloud Strife

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Another explanation is simply that Trump is genuinely fearful of escalation.

Which really shows that he has little to no idea about military issues. The Americans could easily ramp up their support to Ukraine with no consequences whatsoever, as Russia simply doesn't have much ability to do anything at all. They can carry out sabotage (underwater cables comes to mind) and other low levels of disruption, but in terms of actual military capabilities, they simply don't have much to offer at all.

This is not the Soviet Union of the 1960s and even the 1970s that realistically couldn't be stopped before they reached the Rhine, but a Russia which has real problems dealing with a smaller and poorer opponent. It's widely accepted that they can't even stop Moldova today if they decide to take back Transnistria. Meanwhile, they're running out of time for any serious advance before the autumn rains begin, and Ukraine is still attacking targets in Russia with drones, including the critical oil refineries.

The interesting question for me is whether Trump will actually try and agree with Putin about ending the war based on the current front lines.
 

Annetts key

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My take is that this meeting between Putin and Trump is only happening because Putin is trying to play for more time. After all, if he believes the bull from his own generals, Russia is apparently making significant progress. Of course, in the real world, it's not really making any significant strategic progress. And their losses are horrendous.

I'm not expecting anything meaningful to come out of this meeting. Putin is not going to end the war just because Trump tells him to. And even if a deal was put on the table, Ukraine is not going to agree to give up any rights to their territory.

So, the real question is, what will Trump do?
 

DustyBin

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Not sure I have much sympathy. They rather remind me of the legendary Mrs Merton (Caroline Aherne) to Debbie McGee question: “So what first attracted you to the millionaire Paul Daniels?”

Well yes, there is that I suppose… :lol:

Which really shows that he has little to no idea about military issues. The Americans could easily ramp up their support to Ukraine with no consequences whatsoever, as Russia simply doesn't have much ability to do anything at all. They can carry out sabotage (underwater cables comes to mind) and other low levels of disruption, but in terms of actual military capabilities, they simply don't have much to offer at all.

This is not the Soviet Union of the 1960s and even the 1970s that realistically couldn't be stopped before they reached the Rhine, but a Russia which has real problems dealing with a smaller and poorer opponent. It's widely accepted that they can't even stop Moldova today if they decide to take back Transnistria. Meanwhile, they're running out of time for any serious advance before the autumn rains begin, and Ukraine is still attacking targets in Russia with drones, including the critical oil refineries.

I completely agree.

The interesting question for me is whether Trump will actually try and agree with Putin about ending the war based on the current front lines.

I can’t see anyone agreeing to that regardless to be honest. What he’ll come up with is anyone’s guess, but I suspect he’ll ask Russia to return some (illegally) occupied territory in exchange for some other territory currently held by Ukraine. It will be a great deal (that both sides immediately reject!).
 
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Russel

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My take is that this meeting between Putin and Trump is only happening because Putin is trying to play for more time. After all, if he believes the bull from his own generals, Russia is apparently making significant progress. Of course, in the real world, it's not really making any significant strategic progress. And their losses are horrendous.

I'm not expecting anything meaningful to come out of this meeting. Putin is not going to end the war just because Trump tells him to. And even if a deal was put on the table, Ukraine is not going to agree to give up any rights to their territory.

So, the real question is, what will Trump do?

You make some good points.

This does raise the question though, just how does this end?

We're at a stalemate here, Putin isn't going to withdraw from Ukraine, the Ukrainians aren't willing to give up territory and the front lines haven't moved in any meaningful way for a couple of years...
 

REVUpminster

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There could be a ceasefire without anybody agreeing any concession. Russia could even build a wall that could last as long as the Berlin Wall and in years to come all the present leaders will be dead and situations change.
 

DustyBin

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There could be a ceasefire without anybody agreeing any concession. Russia could even build a wall that could last as long as the Berlin Wall and in years to come all the present leaders will be dead and situations change.

I think a frozen conflict is quite possible. Ukraine doesn’t want to cede territory, but may accept Russia occupying it (for now) in exchange for a ceasefire.
 

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