Advance Fares - is there any logic any more?

[modernrail]

Hi,

I am increasingly struggling to figure out if there is any logic remaining as to when advance fares are available.

I quite fancied a smash and grab hike on Monday and thought there might be some decent advances going north London to York very early Monday morning. There aren’t.

Whilst looking I accidentally left Friday (yesterday) evening in as the time and there were loads of advances available in the Friday peak for almost immediate travel for about £50.

Both searches were in the peak. I refuse to believe that Monday 6.30am London to York in mid-August is anything other than near ghost like and certainly not significantly busier than Friday evening. The machine should surely tell the fare setters the best way to fill that train is to get summer holiday leisure traffic on it, which is never going to pay peak anytime fares.

What could be going on?

Anyway, in terms of elastic pricing I am going to do something else instead, so that’s LNER at least £100 down.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

@modernrail. Is it possible that only limited quotas were ever available, and they've now all gone (at least for the next two Monday mornings in August) for journeys from London Kings Cross to York? Are you maybe able to travel on a Monday in September instead? Can see £54.50 Advance Single fares as still being available for several earlyish departures from London Kings Cross to York on both Monday 8th and 15th September 2025.

 

[Tazi Hupefi]

It's not about filling trains anymore - it's about optimising the yield management strategy to capitalise on revenue. A quiet train can be substantially more profitable (and more comfortable) than a busy one, if you have the right tools and algorithms in place to manage your fares, supplemented by experienced/knowledgeable revenue analysts in HQ. LNER has all of these.

Monday at 6.30am in August on LNER is definitely not ghost-like either. It may be quieter than outside of summer holidays, but it will still load reasonably well.

 

[JonathanH]

A quiet train can be substantially more profitable (and more comfortable) than a busy one

Not just that surely, but if there is a belief that there is very little marginal benefit from selling lower priced fares, because the passengers who have to travel are prepared to pay a higher price and there will be very little discretionary custom, then it might as well be sold at that higher price to maximise the revenue?

If those passengers want to work, they are also happy with paying for the extra space.

 

[modernrail]

I am sure the management consultancy brought in to trial more aggressive elastic pricing with LNER is having a lovely time claiming these two things that keep coming up. However, it is a debate that needs to be had in public, with real and transparent figures unless the railway would like its subsidy removing.

This ‘more comfortable’ thing keeps coming up. What that basically says is ‘reserve the use of publicly funded trains for those who have very big wallets and don’t like travelling with other humans too close to them.’ It is a total nonsense that could only be dreamed up by a management consultancy.

We should not be moving from a railway that tries to set a reasonable fare level to generally fill trains up to use the paid for capacity to a railway that fleeces to breaking point for those with big wallets.

I also refuse to believe that London to York trains early next Monday will be remotely well loaded, but in the absence of data it is hard to have a transparent debate isn’t it.

 

[Wallsendmag]

You’re heading north on a train during the Edinburgh festival see the bigger picture

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Aug 2025 ==

Ps I’ve started commuting on the YRK-NCL shuttles as I struggle to get a seat in first on a London service

 

[Krokodil]

I also refuse to believe that London to York trains early next Monday will be remotely well loaded, but in the absence of data it is hard to have a transparent debate isn’t it.

There isn't data for specific trains though if there's a reservation seat selector you might be able to get a picture of how many seats are already reserved. There is however data that gives you an idea of typical loadings on weekdays.

1S04 looks pretty unbusy on average. Evening trains to Newcastle usually have a few hundred on, as you guessed. According to the data though, the last northbound Lumo of the night carries nearly 2,000 passengers on average. Must be a bit cosy!

https://www.railwaydata.co.uk/loadings/gbr/

 

[DelW]

It's not about filling trains anymore - it's about optimising the yield management strategy to capitalise on revenue. A quiet train can be substantially more profitable (and more comfortable) than a busy one, if you have the right tools and algorithms in place to manage your fares, supplemented by experienced/knowledgeable revenue analysts in HQ. LNER has all of these.

Translating the management consultancy gobbledegook into English, this seems to me to mean: forget providing a useful service to the maximum number of passengers, just screw as much money as possible out of the poor saps who have to get somewhere and don't have any alternative means of transport.

 

[htwestern]

Translating the management consultancy gobbledegook into English, this seems to me to mean: forget providing a useful service to the maximum number of passengers, just screw as much money as possible out of the poor saps who have to get somewhere and don't have any alternative means of transport.

And it’s a problem that’s continuing to get worse even in the age of renationalisation…

 

[yorksrob]

The logic is "fleece the travelling public for as much as possible".

This is why things like off peak fares need to be defended vigorously.

 

[Tetchytyke]

forget providing a useful service to the maximum number of passengers, just screw as much money as possible out of the poor saps who have to get somewhere and don't have any alternative means of transport.

It’s the age old dilemma between maximising load and maximising yield. I don’t think you’re going to see any politician argue that the railway operators should be less commercially minded, even under GBR. And the fact is that one ticket at £300 raises more revenue than three tickets at £99 and therefore “business” trains will be priced accordingly.

I refuse to believe that Monday 6.30am London to York in mid-August is anything other than near ghost like

Two words: Edinburgh Festival.

 

[Krokodil]

The logic is "fleece the travelling public for as much as possible".

Yet when you see wedged trains with many passengers on advances, you do wonder why they didn’t just charge walk-up fares for trains that busy.

 

[DeverseSam]

Two words: Edinburgh Festival.

and Americans using Eurail passes

 

[jfollows]

Yet when you see wedged trains with many passengers on advances, you do wonder why they didn’t just charge walk-up fares for trains that busy.

Surely that’s because the operator gets to keep 100% of the advance fare, hence Avanti’s local advance fares 10p less than unrestricted tickets.

 

[alistairlees]

First thing tomorrow morning there are two trains from KGX to EDB at similar times:

05.48 Lumo (arrives 10:07)
06.15 LNER (arrives 11:14)

The Lumo service is fully sold out (disregarding seats for assisted passengers / wheelchair spaces, and those which are not reservable, and the imaginary overbooking counted places allocated to coach A)
The LNER service has 176 reservable seats left (in Standard Class), plus 44 unreservable seats in Coach C.

The only through ticket available on the LNER service is the £204.80 Anytime Single.

Is LNER maximising either load or yield? I am not convinced it is achieving either. Lumo, assumimg that it has sold tickets at a price that it feels is right, looks to be achieving both.

Should a state-run, taxpayer-funded operator be seeking to maximise revenue, at the expense of access to travel opportunities anyway? I don't think it should.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Aug 2025 ==

Surely that’s because the operator gets to keep 100% of the advance fare, hence Avanti’s local advance fares 10p less than unrestricted tickets.

That was six years ago. Keep up!

 

[deltic]

Should a state-run, taxpayer-funded operator be seeking to maximise revenue, at the expense of access to travel opportunities anyway? I don't think it should.

The answer will always be yes as it will, like BR did, have clear financial targets to minimise the level of public funds needed to run a particular level of service.

What is worse the operating side of the railway will be back to annual budgeting not the 5year+ that franchising provided.

 

[Krokodil]

Surely that’s because the operator gets to keep 100% of the advance fare, hence Avanti’s local advance fares 10p less than unrestricted tickets.

The ones I'm thinking of involve much more substantial discounts.

 

[Hadders]

First thing tomorrow morning there are two trains from KGX to EDB at similar times:

05.48 Lumo (arrives 10:07)
06.15 LNER (arrives 11:14)

The Lumo service is fully sold out (disregarding seats for assisted passengers / wheelchair spaces, and those which are not reservable, and the imaginary overbooking counted places allocated to coach A)
The LNER service has 176 reservable seats left (in Standard Class), plus 44 unreservable seats in Coach C.

The only through ticket available on the LNER service is the £204.80 Anytime Single.

Is LNER maximising either load or yield? I am not convinced it is achieving either. Lumo, assumimg that it has sold tickets at a price that it feels is right, looks to be achieving both.

Should a state-run, taxpayer-funded operator be seeking to maximise revenue, at the expense of access to travel opportunities anyway? I don't think it should.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Aug 2025 ==


That was six years ago. Keep up!

This is probably completely unscientific but on Friday 8th August I took the 21:00 LNER train from Kings Cross to Stevenage. I was using a flexible ticket and had made a reservation shortly before departure (I know I didn't need to).

The train ws a 9-car Azuma. I made my way to coach A at the front of the train.

In coach A almost every seat was showing as reserved and had a red light. A handful had amber 'might be reserved'. I counted the number of green lights on one hand.

There were just three of us actually travelling in coach A.

To be fair there had been disruption on Friday but where were these people who had reserved seats? Did they all decide not to travel due to disruption? Did they sit somewhere else in the train? Did they travel on another train (either legitimately or wrongly?) The train manager gave the usual annoucements about needing the correct ticket to travel on the train, I didn't check if there was any ticket acceptance in place but if there was you wouldn't have known it from the train managers annoucement.

Either way, coach A was carting fresh air.

 

[yorkie]

First thing tomorrow morning there are two trains from KGX to EDB at similar times:

05.48 Lumo (arrives 10:07)
06.15 LNER (arrives 11:14)

The Lumo service is fully sold out (disregarding seats for assisted passengers / wheelchair spaces, and those which are not reservable, and the imaginary overbooking counted places allocated to coach A)
The LNER service has 176 reservable seats left (in Standard Class), plus 44 unreservable seats in Coach C.

The only through ticket available on the LNER service is the £204.80 Anytime Single.

Is LNER maximising either load or yield? I am not convinced it is achieving either. Lumo, assumimg that it has sold tickets at a price that it feels is right, looks to be achieving both.

Should a state-run, taxpayer-funded operator be seeking to maximise revenue, at the expense of access to travel opportunities anyway? I don't think it should.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Aug 2025 ==


That was six years ago. Keep up!

Is anyone here able to get to King's Cross (or another station en-route) to see how busy this LNER train is?

LNER are very keen to moan at Hull Trains, GC etc wasting capacity, and yet LNER are - if anything - even more guilty in this area.

I strongly suspect LNER are attempting to only convey the most premium of customers on trains such as this, and anyone not prepared to pay the premium really isn't wanted as an LNER customer. They'd far rather have 100+ seats going spare and charge those who are on the train a lot of money for the privilege.

See also: https://www.railforums.co.uk/posts/7417852/ as this issue is going to occur even more if/when DfT/LNER get their wish of abolishing all (Super) Off Peak tickets.

 

[alistairlees]

I thought I would check the NCL to EDB segment of the 06:15 KGX to EDB, to see if it's busier as it gets in to Edinburgh at a reasonable time for Festival activities. It's actually emptier - there are 195 Standard Class seats available (plus 40 in the "unreserved" part of coach C - strangely, 4 are reserved).

Throughout the journey there are between 25 and 27 1st Class seats available. Proportionately this is busier than Standard Class. There are 1st Class Advance fares for £282.70, i.e. around 38% more than Standard Class; they include the "Dine" menu too.

 

[Hadders]

First thing tomorrow morning there are two trains from KGX to EDB at similar times:

05.48 Lumo (arrives 10:07)
06.15 LNER (arrives 11:14)

The Lumo service is fully sold out (disregarding seats for assisted passengers / wheelchair spaces, and those which are not reservable, and the imaginary overbooking counted places allocated to coach A)
The LNER service has 176 reservable seats left (in Standard Class), plus 44 unreservable seats in Coach C.

I've travelled a few times on the 05:48 (06:10 from Stevenage). In my experience it's quiet, but gets busy at Newcastle where it's the first off-peak train to Edinburgh.

It being sold out, and LNER having many seats available suggests that something is wrong with the pricing.

 

[A S Leib]

This is probably completely unscientific but on Friday 8th August I took the 21:00 LNER train from Kings Cross to Stevenage. I was using a flexible ticket and had made a reservation shortly before departure (I know I didn't need to).

The train ws a 9-car Azuma. I made my way to coach A at the front of the train.

In coach A almost every seat was showing as reserved and had a red light. A handful had amber 'might be reserved'. I counted the number of green lights on one hand.

There were just three of us actually travelling in coach A.

To be fair there had been disruption on Friday but where were these people who had reserved seats? Did they all decide not to travel due to disruption? Did they sit somewhere else in the train? Did they travel on another train (either legitimately or wrongly?) The train manager gave the usual annoucements about needing the correct ticket to travel on the train, I didn't check if there was any ticket acceptance in place but if there was you wouldn't have known it from the train managers annoucement.

Either way, coach A was carting fresh air.

I had a similar experience a few weeks ago on the last train of the day from Glasgow towards Crewe; most seats, at least in my carriage, showed as reserved but it was almost deserted and half of the passengers got off at Motherwell.

 

[Huntergreed]

I had a similar experience a few weeks ago on the last train of the day from Glasgow towards Crewe; most seats, at least in my carriage, showed as reserved but it was almost deserted and half of the passengers got off at Motherwell.

That’s interesting, I’m a regular user of that service and it always seems pretty dead. I’ve never noticed many reservations showing on it before.

I’m using it again later this week so will have a look to see how heavily reserved it looks.

In terms of advances - LNER seem to act more like an airline, where the cost and quota do not necessarily correlate to the loading of the train, but rather what they believe customers will be willing to pay. This means they can put a significant premium on certain services which they believe will generate them more revenue, even if many seats are empty, as opposed to filling up their services with cheaper advance ticket holders.

As a state-owned public transport operator, the argument could be made that they should prioritise filling seats and offering better value access to travel, but the direction of travel seems clear.

 

[ricoblade]

This is why things like off peak fares need to be defended vigorously.

Agreed - case in point today. I needed to travel back from Bristol to Doncaster this afternoon. XC Advances were well north of £100 but I could buy a super off peak single, valid on many services and either XC or GWR/ECML for a lot less. I reserved a seat on an XC at the booking office yesterday but nearly used the flexibility to go via London due to the disruption this morning that was still having knock-ons at Temple Meads at lunctime.

 

[fandroid]

I used to travel regularly to Newcastle and back on the East Coast route in Standard class. It has been the case for years that about 30% of seats shown as reserved, especially on southbound journeys, were never occupied by the people who booked them. Knowledgeable people like myself would feel quite relaxed about getting a seat without reserving, as we knew we'd get to choose once on board the train.

You do wonder if all this clever load allocation stuff is just being done from an office (or WFH) and is rarely, if ever, checked out with real observed data. If they did, it might prompt the thought that there's an opportunity there that they ought to be able to exploit. I'm sure BR would have gone for it!

Demand is elastic and loyalty can be built up by being flexible. They should absolutely try and fill every train and then later on regulate demand. In my experience, short haul airlines absolutely try to fill their planes and often succeed in doing so. There's something deeply wrong if trains, bought at huge cost, are somehow are seen as "more efficient" if running with lots of empty seats. Try suggesting that strategy to a boss who has to make a business case for investment in modern replacement rolling stock.

 

[RailWonderer]

In terms of advances - LNER seem to act more like an airline, where the cost and quota do not necessarily correlate to the loading of the train, but rather what they believe customers will be willing to pay. This means they can put a significant premium on certain services which they believe will generate them more revenue, even if many seats are empty, as opposed to filling up their services with cheaper advance ticket holders.

As a state-owned public transport operator, the argument could be made that they should prioritise filling seats and offering better value access to travel, but the direction of travel seems clear.

This is the single biggest problem of British railways at the moment (specifically rail travel in England). It's so cynical to sacrifice revenue just to keep a train empty with a few very high paying passengers on board just in case they sell a few more tickets than expected, while still keeping much of the train empty.

Ditto for the £380 London - Manchester anytime return. A colleague of mine on linkedin posted about it and how it was ruining connectivity and business travel for small and medium sized business and dividing the country.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Aug 2025 ==

Demand is elastic and loyalty can be built up by being flexible. They should absolutely try and fill every train and then later on regulate demand. In my experience, short haul airlines absolutely try to fill their planes and often succeed in doing so.

Airlines have the excuse of pricing some tickets high to discourage you from buying so they can reserve them for connecting passengers who might book, where demand is more uncertain. Other factors in airline pricing are still a bit of a mystery.

 

[Bletchleyite]

This is the single biggest problem of British railways at the moment (specifically rail travel in England). It's so cynical to sacrifice revenue just to keep a train empty with a few very high paying passengers on board just in case they sell a few more tickets than expected, while still keeping much of the train empty.

Ditto for the £380 London - Manchester anytime return. A colleague of mine on linkedin posted about it and how it was ruining connectivity and business travel for small and medium sized business and dividing the country.

Avanti did actually bid to reduce those fares by about 30% (if I recall) in their franchise agreement on the basis that increasing numbers would offset most or all of the loss by doing so, but then COVID happened and the DfT reneged.

£266 is still too much, though - I'd say about £100 each way Anytime Single (with Advances below that) would be about where it should be. That would be per mile similar to Edinburgh.

 

[RailWonderer]

Avanti did actually bid to reduce those fares by about 30% (if I recall) in their franchise agreement on the basis that increasing numbers would offset most or all of the loss by doing so, but then COVID happened and the DfT reneged.

£266 is still too much, though - I'd say about £100 each way Anytime Single (with Advances below that) would be about where it should be. That would be per mile similar to Edinburgh.

I think £180 for an anytime return is reasonable for the distance and service, but if you're assiming the single leg pricing infection spreads to Avanti then £90 each way would be my vote but that may make the trains rammed. Hopefully somebody in the industry presents a graph to somebody higher up with a prediction of how full the train will be given a 50% price cut and current loadings. They could gradually cut it down and observe how much the trains fill up and settle at £100 each way.

 

[Sleepy]

This is probably completely unscientific but on Friday 8th August I took the 21:00 LNER train from Kings Cross to Stevenage. I was using a flexible ticket and had made a reservation shortly before departure (I know I didn't need to).

The train ws a 9-car Azuma. I made my way to coach A at the front of the train.

In coach A almost every seat was showing as reserved and had a red light. A handful had amber 'might be reserved'. I counted the number of green lights on one hand.

There were just three of us actually travelling in coach A.

To be fair there had been disruption on Friday but where were these people who had reserved seats? Did they all decide not to travel due to disruption? Did they sit somewhere else in the train? Did they travel on another train (either legitimately or wrongly?) The train manager gave the usual annoucements about needing the correct ticket to travel on the train, I didn't check if there was any ticket acceptance in place but if there was you wouldn't have known it from the train managers annoucement.

Either way, coach A was carting fresh air.

Would imagine many were elsewhere in train (some of course were travelling earlier with walk up tickets (no evening time restrictions on Fridays from King Cross) and London Terminals transfer time given can be way too long.

 

[route101]

Agreed - case in point today. I needed to travel back from Bristol to Doncaster this afternoon. XC Advances were well north of £100 but I could buy a super off peak single, valid on many services and either XC or GWR/ECML for a lot less. I reserved a seat on an XC at the booking office yesterday but nearly used the flexibility to go via London due to the disruption this morning that was still having knock-ons at Temple Meads at lunctime.

Yes, I have noticed Glasgow to London one way Advance ticket prices shoot above the price of the off peak single fare.