Thoughts on the Trump presidency

[ainsworth74]

The problem is that nobody ever believed that given his lifestyle.

Pretty sure his base did...

 

[martin butler]

The issue with his hands, and swollen ankles, are I suspect symptoms of other more serious problems, such as chronic heart failure, which does have all the same symptoms as the vein issue the white house has admitted to, Its not due to shaking so many hands, its due to his lifestyle, overweight, bad diet, if you look close his hands show signs of IV use, he seems unable to keep awake, I actually think he is in very poor health , and that will become more noticeable over the next few months, I will predict that , he won't be president in January 2026

 

[Gloster]

My feeling is that those pulling the strings want to keep Trump in place, even if he is increasingly erratic, until at least the mid-terms in November next year, or as close to that as possible. They want the MAGA faithful to vote for the GOP in those elections and there seem to be quite a few who will vote for it if he is in charge, but don’t have the same attachment to Vance. The mid-terms are going to be difficult for the Republicans even with Trump still in place, so they will try everything that they can. Vance is probably hoping that he will last until 21 January 2027, because after that Vance could step in, complete the term and complete two more terms (if I read the 22nd Amendment correctly).

Of course, they could just rig or cancel the mid-terms…

 

[Thirteen]

The issue with his hands, and swollen ankles, are I suspect symptoms of other more serious problems, such as chronic heart failure, which does have all the same symptoms as the vein issue the white house has admitted to, Its not due to shaking so many hands, its due to his lifestyle, overweight, bad diet, if you look close his hands show signs of IV use, he seems unable to keep awake, I actually think he is in very poor health , and that will become more noticeable over the next few months, I will predict that , he won't be president in January 2026

January 2026 he'll be there but January 2027 is more iffy.

 

[jon0844]

It's all a bit up in the air right now, so who knows what's going to happen. The base is upset, seriously. Some pundits/podcasters who tried to play down the scandal are now backtracking because they realise the base is what funds them - not Trump. Trump would appear to be the one that would get thrown under the bus if it came to making such a choice.

Trump now has to come up with documents and a client list that's plausible and allows Trump and others on the right to put this issue to bed once and for all. There's no way Trump survives if he just insults his base and tells them to move on.

JD Vance has quite wisely said next to nothing about all of this, so he could step in at any time if it came to it. No doubt Elon is going to keep making sure to stoke the fire.

 

[Annetts key]

Of course, they could just rig or cancel the mid-terms…

That will be less than straightforward, as each individual state holds and runs the election for that state. No way are any Democratic party controlled states going to allow rigging or agree to any cancellation. And I strongly suggest that the vast majority of Republican party controlled states will also hold normal elections without rigging. They will know Trump and MAGA won't be forever. So getting caught rigging would be extremely bad for them.

 

[Cloud Strife]

That will be less than straightforward, as each individual state holds and runs the election for that state. No way are any Democratic party controlled states going to allow rigging or agree to any cancellation. And I strongly suggest that the vast majority of Republican party controlled states will also hold normal elections without rigging. They will know Trump and MAGA won't be forever. So getting caught rigging would be extremely bad for them.

Yeah, I think people forget that the states organise the elections themselves, and being caught rigging anything would be the end of someone's political career. People are watching each other like a hawk, but from what I've seen, both Republicans and Democrats at the local level are very much able to work together on votes without getting involved in vote rigging allegations.

Both the Democrats and the Republicans are responsible for a ridiculous amount of gerrymandering, and it seems to be the rule that you can gerrymander as much as you can get away with, and you can also mess with various things that affect the turnout, but don't mess with the actual ballots.

Trump now has to come up with documents and a client list that's plausible and allows Trump and others on the right to put this issue to bed once and for all. There's no way Trump survives if he just insults his base and tells them to move on.

It's quite interesting to watch. I suspect his base thought that the files would be full of evidence of Bill Gates and Bill Clinton being huge paedophiles, but now it's emerged that Trump's people want to cover something up, they're in complete disarray. It was very much one of the MAGA founding myths, and the thing that confuses me most is that it's highly unlikely that there's anything that can damage Trump in there, so why is he being so stupid about the whole situation?

 

[nlogax]

There's no way Trump survives if he just insults his base and tells them to move on.

"There's no way Trump survives if.." is how thousands of sentences have figuratively and literally begun over the last decade, and yet here we (still) are.

It'll be a health issue that ends his time in the WH, not what he does or doesn't do to his base or the wider electorate.

 

[najaB]

What 'mid-terms'? If there are any, they will be Russian style. In November 2024, the USA voters said goodbye to democracy.

I don't think they're at that point. At least not yet.

It'll be a health issue that ends his time in the WH, not what he does or doesn't do to his base or the wider electorate.

I don't disagree that he's more likely demit office due to cholesterol, but he's been able to shrug off everything so far because he's always been able to play the "They don't get you like I get you" card with his base, but they're not going to stick by him if they realise that he's "just like the others" and doesn't care about them. And, despite the victories in the 2024 election it won't take much of a swing for the GOP to lose power in a big way.

 

[ainsworth74]

That will be less than straightforward, as each individual state holds and runs the election for that state. No way are any Democratic party controlled states going to allow rigging or agree to any cancellation. And I strongly suggest that the vast majority of Republican party controlled states will also hold normal elections without rigging. They will know Trump and MAGA won't be forever. So getting caught rigging would be extremely bad for them.

That is true but it leaves the way open for plenty of shenanigans. The States that are controlled by Republican legislatures and executives could certainly decide to fiddle the books should they so wish and what will the Democrats and other opposition do? Sue? Probably but the Supreme Court seems to be fairly supine and willing to go along with whatever the Republican Party and Trump wants and then if the Supreme Court rule that there's been no election interference then what? Vice versa, those states controlled by Democratic legislatures will run free elections as they always do but I could equally see Republicans and similar bring legal cases against those elections alledging election interference and if the Supreme Court rules that there was interference and annuls the results? What do they do then?

I think it's still more than likely that the 2026 mid-terms go off without too much of a hitch and are broadly free (I have my concerns whether they'll be fair considering the fire hose of crap that will no doubt be deployed on social media, and the media at large see the steady capitulations of various media companies like CBS to the MAGA agenda). But I think it's unwise to assume that it's impossible that the elections could be interfered with.

That's quite apart from more insidious things that could impact on the results. What if ICE target polling stations on election day or during early voting? That seems like both a highly likely thing to happen and something which will absolutely suppress the vote of Latino's in particularly but potentially many others.

I don't think they're at that point. At least not yet.

Agreed, I think what I’ve written above is an unlikely worst case scenario but it does feel like the direction of travel at the moment is towards Russian like elections. Where there are elections but they're not free or fair and the results are pre-determined.

 

[The Ham]

That's quite apart from more insidious things that could impact on the results. What if ICE target polling stations on election day or during early voting? That seems like both a highly likely thing to happen and something which will absolutely suppress the vote of Latino's in particularly but potentially many others.

That may or may not actually help the Republicans.

It's one of those things where on paper it could help but may end up harming.

 

[jon0844]

"There's no way Trump survives if.." is how thousands of sentences have figuratively and literally begun over the last decade, and yet here we (still) are.

It'll be a health issue that ends his time in the WH, not what he does or doesn't do to his base or the wider electorate.

Yes, but this latest scandal isn't going away anytime soon and his health can't be hidden anymore either. MAGA will continue with or without Trump. If Trump is ill, and they're now admitting it, they're setting in motion things Trump won't be able to stop.

A significant number of things from Project 2025 have now been implemented, so the useful idiot may not be needed for too much longer.

But, you're right, we have thought we were in this position before and been disappointed.

 

[dangie]

Trump vs Murdoch
This could be one of those battles where you don’t want to see a winner, but two losers.

Trump sues Murdoch and Wall Street Journal for $10bn over Epstein article

The lawsuit is over a story claiming the president wrote a "bawdy" personal note to Jeffrey Epstein in 2003.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Trump vs Murdoch
This could be one of those battles where you don’t want to see a winner, but two losers.

Trump sues Murdoch and Wall Street Journal for $10bn over Epstein article

The lawsuit is over a story claiming the president wrote a "bawdy" personal note to Jeffrey Epstein in 2003.

www.bbc.co.uk

...and there's no way the newspaper didn't print anything potentially contentious without running it past several independent top legal professionals first is there?

 

[Cloud Strife]

...and there's no way the newspaper didn't print anything potentially contentious without running it past several independent top legal professionals first is there?

I'd bet very good money that they've got an insurance policy or two, specifically that they know there's more on Trump and Epstein and that they've got evidence of it.

 

[martin butler]

You have to remember that Trump operates like a mafia don, his threat to sue, is about trying to silence stories he doesn't want people to know, Murdock, for his part isn't exactly clean himself, you can bet he knows, and has the proof about many people, and things they have done,

How does this end? I expect trump to either die in office, or for the party to decide he's no longer useful and to throw him to the wolves, and MAGA with him, most likely by the leaking of stuff that's been held back, that turns public against trump, it's about power, and if Trump becomes a liability, and could lose them power, they will want him gone, so they can rebuild in time for 2029

 

[uglymonkey]

But surely MAGA is the Republicans, what other choice of direction do they have that the base wouldn't turn "rabid" about?

 

[martin butler]

But surely MAGA is the Republicans, what other choice of direction do they have that the base wouldn't turn "rabid" about?

Maga is the more extreme members of the republican movement, not all republicans are that extreme, especially when hard line, policy starts to impact on themselves, I would hazard a guess that quite a few faced with real time consequences are thinking, this isn't what I voted for, especially over ICE action,

 

[Gloster]

Well, six months in and where are we? This thread has almost ground to a halt because, in my opinion, we just can’t keep up with the constant stream of actions by Trump and hench(wo)men, many of which then go off in a different direction or are reversed. To my mind we are deep in it and the future is even more uncertain, what with Trump increasingly appearing to be sick in body as well as…fill in your preference.

More worrying is what is going on in the background. The extremists who want to build an autocratic, theocratic or plutocratic USA know that they are closer to doing so than for centuries. They have to seize power in the near future, because if they don’t they risk losing the opportunity for decades. It may be difficult to rig the system, but they know that their day will almost certainly come in the near future if they throw enough money and lack of scruple at the problem.

And this country? I think we must realise that the special relationship (convenient for the US, less so for us) is over and stop rolling over to please Trump et al. He will tickle our tummy and make more and more demands until we can’t take any more. Then he will just walk away and leave us. We must choose another way.

 

[uglymonkey]

Since WW2 ( probably before), the UK has always been in a quandary. Do we want to be closer to Europe or closer to the USA? Never been successfully resolved.

 

[dangie]

Since WW2 ( probably before), the UK has always been in a quandary. Do we want to be closer to Europe or closer to the USA? Never been successfully resolved.

Head or Heart….??

 

[Gloster]

Head or Heart….??

But which is which…and are they necessarily different? My head and my heart both incline the same way.

 

[najaB]

But which is which…and are they necessarily different? My head and my heart both incline the same way.

Traditionally heart would lean towards the USA (due to the shared language and history) and head towards Europe (on economic grounds due to proximity). These days, not so much.

 

[martin butler]

My view is that, we need to rebuild our ties with Europe, and not rely so much on the US defence manufacturing, but to find common defence systems with our European partners,

Future projects should be pan European, with our Nato European partners, to unify systems, The US, at the moment cannot be trusted, whilst it has people in charge, who have ties to Russia, and has heads of departments, who at best are nothing short of sycophants, longer term, the real need is for Europe to be able to stand up to threats from Russia, and that means investing in systems that the US can't turn off, there could be more unstable leaders to worry about, There is every likelihood that Americas future movement will be away from Europe, looking towards Asia, or becoming totally fractured, as internal issues lead to states breaking away,

 

[najaB]

There is every likelihood that Americas future movement will be away from Europe, looking towards Asia, or becoming totally fractured, as internal issues lead to states breaking away,

At this stage I'd say that is "possible but not yet probable". There aren't many states which are either solid "red" or solid "blue", and there's no single, polarising, binary issue on which they can be clearly divided (c.f. "Can you own people as property?").

 

[Annetts key]

I agree that the U.K. needs to form a good relationship with European countries and the E.U.

And yes, for our and Europe's defence, we need to become a lot less reliant on the U.S.A., with that government and it's military, but also by developing and manufacturing defence and military equipment by/in Europe.

Having U.S.A. designed / made military equipment may be worthless if we can't use it when we want to use it... And it's military value may be limited if we can't get more supplies / ammunition or spares.

Further, why would any country buy expensive military equipment from another country that slaps unreasonable tariffs on our country or our other allies?

As much as I absolutely hate it, pandering to trump and dangling a carrot in front of him does appear to have worked somewhat. But if it comes to it we also need to be ready to play hardball. The trouble is, with what? The U.S.A. is far bigger and more powerful. Our own military is a shadow of what we had even in the mid 1980s. This is especially true for the Army and the Royal Navy. Just count how low the numbers of frigates and destroyers have become.

 

[najaB]

Having U.S.A. designed / made military equipment may be worthless if we can't use it when we want to use it... And it's military value may be limited if we can't get more supplies / ammunition or spares.

While this is a concern, it's probably not quite as big an issue as some make it out to be. Most of the big arms manufacturers are transnational so the Americans would be as dependent on us as we are on them.

 

[Senex]

Traditionally heart would lean towards the USA (due to the shared language and history) and head towards Europe (on economic grounds due to proximity). These days, not so much.

Surely we have a much longer shared history with Europe than we do with the USA? How much of the feeling of closeness (for some people) with the USA a product of the mass media, especially audio-visual, ove r the last century (basically post WW1) and many years of the BBC paying much more attention to USA politics etc than to what happens in Europe (even while we were in the EU)?

 

[DarloRich]

The Epstein stuff with Trump is fantastic - the first time his base have questioned the great tangerine and he is being eaten up by his own conspiracies! He is also suing Murdoch which is quite ripe.

He will survive, of course, because if you can incite an insurrection and not be banned from standing as president you can survive anything. Nixon went down for so much less! Trump will be there until he dies or goes completely, unhidably dolally. There is no way he is the fittest president ever to president and his true health position must be awful. Sadly the evil always seem to hang on.

( there is also no way an "honest" Epstein client list will be released. Trump wont feature on it but I bet Democrats do............)

 

[ainsworth74]

Surely we have a much longer shared history with Europe than we do with the USA?

We have of course spent quite a lot of that shared history killing each other in various combinations! We've not fought a war with the US since 1812.

How much of the feeling of closeness (for some people) with the USA a product of the mass media, especially audio-visual, ove r the last century (basically post WW1) and many years of the BBC paying much more attention to USA politics etc than to what happens in Europe (even while we were in the EU)?

Of course a century is quite a long time and it's not unreasonable for a country whose population is almost entirely made up of people whose only experience of the US-UK relationship is that made after the Second World War to feel some sense of affection for the place considering we do share (sort of) a language and have, until very recently, generally had a shared set of interests in the world. You'd really have to be well over-90 now to remember a time before we were war forged allies and the UK population of people aged 90+ is only estimated as being around 600,000.

Therefore whilst that closeness might have been forged by shared media and cultural pursuits (and this of course has not been a one way street!) following on from being forged during the Second World War and our previous shared history (fraught though it might be!) I'm not sure that that devalues it in any particular way. Similarly BBC (and others) coverage of the US is sometimes a bit overblow but that is surely a simple reflection of a) that shared language making it easier to access and b) the US being the dominant global power in our bit of the world therefore what happens in the US is relevant to us in various ways to varying degrees.

The happenings in Germany or Italy are interesting and have importance to the UK but realistically are not to the same degree as those in the US (again until very recently). They are also that bit harder to access due to the language barrier.

I do think that Trump II has rather tilted things on their head and I suspect that certain sections of the Foreign Office and the Ministry of Defence are still coming to grips with the fact that the Americans are now not quite the friend and ally they were until very recently and so the planning assumptions that have been based on that are no longer valid.

It seems clear to me that whilst we should remain friendly with the US and not deliberately set out to antagonise them (we do still have shared interests and it would be wise to influence them as best we can to further those) we do need to be practical and accept the US is not a reliable ally anymore. It likely will never be again or at least not for a very long time. Which means the only real option is to get closer and friendlier with our European (and ideally other Commonwealth) friends and allies.

One might question if the ideal timing of the UK disconnecting itself from Europe just as the world heats up is somewhat suspicious considering it's benefit for certain overseas actors from a country renowned for its harsh winters who might well have been working towards that end in the time leading up to that disconnection and after. But that's probably a topic for another thread...

( there is also no way an "honest" Epstein client list will be released. Trump wont feature on it but I bet Democrats do............)

I must admit I'm surprised they've not released a fake one yet. Considering how conniving and shameless they usually are it seems like quite an obvious move.