East-West Rail (EWR): Consultation updates [not speculation]

[MarkyT]

It faces Bedford/east, and would be for 2tph to Cambridge. To add to 2tph Cambridge-Oxford.

There would then be the MKC-Oxford 2tph further down, and likely 1tph stopper still.

This was in place of an earlier plan which had 2tph Bletchley-Cambridge runs.

I personally think a bay could also maybe support some northbound MML service (ostensibly Bedford starters, mentioned for Leeds a while back)

Better than holding them in Bedford station. In the light of UDX, perhaps a more elaborate station might be considered, with some provision for intercity length trains, for weekend extras, excursions etc. The sidings nearby might provide stabling, and a through excursion platform could accept trains from the west, reversing at Bletchley from the WCML or from the GWML via Oxford.

 

[Magdalia]

I see ministers are still banging on about connecting Oxford to Cambridge when the numbers expected to travel between the two cities is negligible. EWR is at risk from suffering from the same problem as HS2 ie a lack of coherent narrative about why the scheme is needed.

Both are important, and the emphasis in the narrative depends on the audience. In the context of the audience today, the emphasis on Oxford and Cambridge is appropriate, but the benefits all the way along the corridor are not forgotten. Here is a further quote from the BBC article:

Lord Patrick Vallance, the minister responsible for leading the plan, said it was about creating jobs and opportunities to have "a thriving community right the way across the corridor".
His comments came during a visit to Oxford Science Park and Oxford University alongside a delegation of Saudi Arabian government officials and industry leaders.
The plans are "definitely not just about the few people at the very high end of academia," Lord Vallance said.

Saudi Arabian government officials can be expected to have heard of Oxford and Cambridge, but are less likely to be familiar with Milton Keynes and Bedford.

 

[swt_passenger]

I see ministers are still banging on about connecting Oxford to Cambridge when the numbers expected to travel between the two cities is negligible. EWR is at risk from suffering from the same problem as HS2 ie a lack of coherent narrative about why the scheme is needed...

It’s the bandwagon jumping that gets me annoyed. They seem to have persuaded the BBC that the ‘Oxford to Cambridge Growth Corridor’ was a recent idea of Rachel Reeves. Wasn’t it an aim of EWR from its very start to link the two obvious endpoints, and going back to 2018/19 or so wasn‘t it previously referred to as the Oxford to Cambridge Arc?

 

[jfowkes]

I see ministers are still banging on about connecting Oxford to Cambridge when the numbers expected to travel between the two cities is negligible.

Can we trust those passenger projections? Both Borders railway and the Northumberland Line exceeded expectations. I wouldn't be at all surprised if EWR does too.

 

[JamesT]

I wonder if as well as East-West Rail, the minister might also have mentioned the Cowley Branch line, which would serve the Science Park he visited.

 

[Kingham West]

I wonder if as well as East-West Rail, the minister might also have mentioned the Cowley Branch line, which would serve the Science Park he visited.

That would be nice, however it failed to get on the infrastructure list ( despite a good BCR), so he was probably briefed not to mention it .

 

[Magdalia]

It’s the bandwagon jumping that gets me annoyed. They seem to have persuaded the BBC that the ‘Oxford to Cambridge Growth Corridor’ was a recent idea of Rachel Reeves. Wasn’t it an aim of EWR from its very start to link the two obvious endpoints, and going back to 2018/19 or so wasn‘t it previously referred to as the Oxford to Cambridge Arc?

This always reminds me of a scene from Airplane II:

We'd better get to the arc
We have no arc, minister
No arc?
Just a corridor, minister

 

[mr_jrt]

Rather than building a bay, would there be sufficient utility to warrant building a pair of island platforms to provide 4? That way you can terminate from either direction in the centre roads and it gives an opportunity for overtaking.

 

[BlueLeanie]

I see ministers are still banging on about connecting Oxford to Cambridge when the numbers expected to travel between the two cities is negligible. EWR is at risk from suffering from the same problem as HS2 ie a lack of coherent narrative about why the scheme is needed. EWR itself does not refer to linking the two cities but that it



which is subtly different.

Best not to get too tied up on the wording. From day one, when it opens between Oxford & Milton Keynes, it's going to exceed all expectations of passenger loadings.

Quite frankly, Network South East could (easily?) have operated a service between MK and Oxford from 1987 onwards and I suspect with profit.

 

[Nottingham59]

From day one, when it opens between Oxford & Milton Keynes, it's going to exceed all expectations of passenger loadings.

What are the expectations of passenger loadings?

 

[Magdalia]

Rather than building a bay, would there be sufficient utility to warrant building a pair of island platforms to provide 4? That way you can terminate from either direction in the centre roads and it gives an opportunity for overtaking.

The non-statutory consultation included options for freight loops in the Ridgmont/Stewartby area, though not at the station.

Six options have been identified for the location of passing loops which would be constructed in the Ridgmont and Stewartby area as shown in Figure 63. There are three westbound loop options and three eastbound options, with only one loop required in each direction.

The location of the passing loops would be influenced by the decision on station concept and the potential relocated station options for Ridgmont and Stewartby. This is because the proposals overlap with station options. An option appraisal will be undertaken prior to the statutory consultation once station locations have been confirmed. All loops at this consultation are included in the draft Order Limits boundary

What are the expectations of passenger loadings?

One indication is the proposed initial level of service in the non-statutory consultation. Unfortunately it doesn't copy from the pdf and retain its format!

The proposed train services are: Table 1 Proposed train service patterns noting a variation depending on the choice and location of stations between Bletchley and Kempston Connection stage Service pattern with MVL Existing Stations Option Service pattern with MVL Consolidated Stations Option Connection Stage 1 Oxford to Milton Keynes passenger services introduced from 2025 2 x Oxford to Milton Keynes services in each direction per hour 2 x Oxford to Milton Keynes services in each direction per hour Connection Stage 2 Oxford to Bedford passenger services introduced from 2030 2 x Oxford to Milton Keynes services in each direction per hour 1 x Oxford to Bedford service in each direction per hour 1 x Bletchley to Bedford service in each direction per hour (existing) 2 x Oxford to Milton Keynes services in each direction per hour 1 x Oxford to Bedford service in each direction per hour 1 x Bletchley to Bedford service in each direction per hour (existing) Connection Stage 3 Oxford to Cambridge passenger services introduced by mid-2030s Assuming the Existing Stations for MVL stations: 2 x Oxford to Milton Keynes services in each direction per hour 2 x Oxford to Cambridge services in each direction per hour 2 x Stewartby to Cambridge service in each direction per hour 1 x Bletchley to Bedford service in each direction per hour Assuming the Consolidated Stations for MVL stations: 2 x Oxford to Milton Keynes services in each direction per hour 2 x Oxford to Cambridge service in each direction per hour 1x Stewartby to Cambridge service in each direction per hour 1 x Bletchley to Cambridge service in each direction per hour

Another indication is existing one way flows data to/from Cambridge from the ORR via raildata. I think it will take time for EWR stations to hit the levels of Ely (502k) or Royston (151k).

But all of the following have one way flows data to/from Cambridge in the 50-100k range:

Waterbeach, Newmarket, Peterborough, Kings Lynn, Norwich, Bury St Edmunds, Meldreth, Audley End, Hitchin, Shelford, Bishops Stortford, Whittlesford, Letchworth, Stevenage

I'd expect one way flows data to/from Cambridge for Cambourne, Tempsford, Bedford, Bletchley and Oxford to hit the 50-100k levels quite quickly, with Cambourne and Tempsford growing towards Royston and Ely levels.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

It’s the bandwagon jumping that gets me annoyed. They seem to have persuaded the BBC that the ‘Oxford to Cambridge Growth Corridor’ was a recent idea of Rachel Reeves. Wasn’t it an aim of EWR from its very start to link the two obvious endpoints, and going back to 2018/19 or so wasn‘t it previously referred to as the Oxford to Cambridge Arc?

I recall the idea of East/West rail originated with local politicians in East Anglia who believed very substantially upgraded routes from Ipswich and Norwich to Cambridge combined with a re-opened and upgraded Varsity Line would benefit their communities enormously, including those living in Newmarket and Bury St Edmunds. I don't recall Oxford in particular being a single, very special objective. Since those early days those local politicians have been frozen out of the discussion and their idea of line upgrades between Cambridge and points east have been jettisoned.

 

[Wyrleybart]

Best not to get too tied up on the wording. From day one, when it opens between Oxford & Milton Keynes, it's going to exceed all expectations of passenger loadings.

Quite frankly, Network South East could (easily?) have operated a service between MK and Oxford from 1987 onwards and I suspect with profit.

Exactly. Crossrail before it became the Elizabeth line proved exactly how successful things can be. Build it and they will come" !!

Just a shame that British infrastructure is always a cost rather than an investment.

 

[zwk500]

Exactly. Crossrail before it became the Elizabeth line proved exactly how successful things can be. Build it and they will come" !!

Crossrail was built where people already were, tbf. They didn't come, they were released by the Elizabeth line.

 

[Magdalia]

I recall the idea of East/West rail originated with local politicians in East Anglia who believed very substantially upgraded routes from Ipswich and Norwich to Cambridge combined with a re-opened and upgraded Varsity Line would benefit their communities enormously, including those living in Newmarket and Bury St Edmunds. I don't recall Oxford in particular being a single, very special objective. Since those early days those local politicians have been frozen out of the discussion and their idea of line upgrades between Cambridge and points east have been jettisoned.

The original ideas for both East West Rail and the OxCam Arc both originated at local level a long time ago. But local authorities do not have the means to deliver either, their objective when promoting such ideas is to get the government of the day to adopt them. For those local authorities, central government "jumping on the bandwagon" is success.

Various governments have ridden on the East West Rail bandwagon with varying degrees of enthusiasm. The only government that adopted the OxCam Arc was the Johnson 2019 government, this defined the arc as the ceremonial counties of Oxford, Buckingham, Bedford, Northampton and Cambridge. This government's corridor seems to be confined to Oxford, Cambridge, and the places along the East West Rail route.

It was the May government that established the East West Rail company as a separate entity in 2017. Since then East West Rail has been confined to Oxford-Cambridge by the remit given to the company in 2017. It has no powers to consider line upgrades between Cambridge and points east.

 

[Nottingham59]

One indication is the proposed initial level of service in the non-statutory consultation.

So what features of EWR mean that it will have substantially higher patronage than a similar peripheral line linking two places with direct services to London. Say, Reading - Guildford? (1tph fast; 1 tph slow)

 

[zwk500]

So what features of EWR mean that it will have substantially higher patronage than a similar peripheral line linking two places with direct services to London. Say, Reading - Guildford? (1tph fast; 1 tph slow)

Well Reading and Guildford don't have world-leading universities and the accompanying high-paying industries surrounding them, for starters.

 

[Spekejunction]

In the summer of 1964 my bride to be and I made a journey from Crewe to Bletchley then continued on to Cambridge..
Think of all the money that has been spent to get back to where we were in 1964 !

I can also remember the closure of the March to Spalding Line…causing all freight to go via Peterborough..

 

[Magdalia]

So what features of EWR mean that it will have substantially higher patronage than a similar peripheral line linking two places with direct services to London. Say, Reading - Guildford? (1tph fast; 1 tph slow)

The existing data. The Reading-Guildford one way flow is 55k.

For Cambridge, all of Ely, Royston, Waterbeach, Newmarket, Peterborough, Kings Lynn, Norwich, Bury St Edmunds, Meldreth, Audley End, Hitchin and Shelford are bigger than Reading-Guildford.

And Cambridge to/from Cambourne, Tempsford, Bedford, Bletchley and Oxford will all be bigger than Reading-Guildford too.

 

[Nottingham59]

Well Reading and Guildford don't have world-leading universities and the accompanying high-paying industries surrounding them, for starters.

Reading right in the heart of the M4 corridor with all its accompanying high-tech high-paying industries. And Guildford doesn't do too badly either. I guess we shall just have to wait and see.

Though we might have to wait a long time. The only demand forecasts for EWR that I can find are for 25 years time, in the Consultation Economic and Technical Report (May 2023):

Table 28 - Number of passengers and load factors in the busiest 60-minute period in each route section (high growth with dependent development, four trains per hour) -2050  

Oxford – Bletchley (4tph HR)  1,146  (80% loaded)

Bletchley – Bedford (3 tph)  909  (84% loaded)

ECML – Cambridge (4 tph)  857  (60% loaded)

[These are the high economic growth forecasts for route option HR5, Bedford North / Cambridge South]

4-car trains 60% loaded in the peak hour doesn't strike me as a particularly roaring success. But what do I know?

 

[Tirov]

A message to ZWK500 about this 'Guildford don't have world-leading universities and the accompanying high-paying industries surrounding them'.

You are incorrect as Guildford does have a world-beating University and is host to a number of very large multinational business's!

 

[djox]

From day one, when it opens between Oxford & Milton Keynes, it's going to exceed all expectations of passenger loadings.

Agree from anecdotal evidence there seems to be a demand of people from Oxford looking forward to having a Oxford to MK train, maybe as an alternative to CrossCountry to go to Manchester or Birmingham.

 

[edwin_m]

Reading-Guildford will carry some people who live in Reading to Guildford and vice versa for employment, education, shopping etc. But most people who live in Reading or Guidford will do those things in their own town. The intermediate stops serve only small communities that will generate few passengers. So the route has little potential to generate trips from residential "origin" stations to urban "destination" stations.

In conjunction with the planned housing around its new stations, EWR has scope to generate a lot more of this type of travel, as well as city to city travel which as mentioned will probably be quite a small fraction of the total.

 

[bspahh]

A message to ZWK500 about this 'Guildford don't have world-leading universities and the accompanying high-paying industries surrounding them'.

You are incorrect as Guildford does have a world-beating University and is host to a number of very large multinational business's!

According to the QS World University Rankings, The University of Surrey comes in at number 262. The University of Oxford is ranked 4th and The University of Cambridge is 6th.

 

[Nottingham59]

The only demand forecasts for EWR that I can find are for 25 years time, in the Consultation Economic and Technical Report (May 2023):

What I can't find are any forecasts for patronage when the Oxford-MK service starts. Does anyone know of anything published that gives figures for expected number of journeys after, say, the first 12 months of EWR operation?

 

[djox]

What I can't find are any forecasts for patronage when the Oxford-MK service starts. Does anyone know of anything published that gives figures for expected number of journeys after, say, the first 12 months of EWR operation?

Looks hard to find any estimates, but I'm sure the business case for EWR would have included. It's probably why Chiltern haven't started services and won't until December 2025, as they're still working out how many people are likely to travel from Oxford to MK.

 

[al green]

EWR has and do consider UDX in its plans. However, the vast majority of rail passengers visiting UDX will use Thameslink, relatively few will use EWR. Peak day visitors are expected to reach 55,000. Optimistically 20,000 will arrive by rail, of whom around 90% will use Thameslink. That leaves 2,000 using EWR, probably over a 3 hour arrival and departure time frame. Which equates to just 300-400 passengers per hour in each direction on a service which will be at least 2tph and that is on a peak day. Existing proposed capacity is likely to be more than adequate and UDX is not going to pay for additional rolling stock to cope with the occasional evening concert when arrivals/departures are likely to be more peaked.

Where did you get this figure of 90% via Thameslink from? I've not found that in any of the documentation. I suspect you just invented it.
My estimate is about 2/3 at Wixams and 1/3 at kempston Hardwick. That seems to fit with the figures they are suggesting for Wixams.

 

[The Planner]

Looks hard to find any estimates, but I'm sure the business case for EWR would have included. It's probably why Chiltern haven't started services and won't until December 2025, as they're still working out how many people are likely to travel from Oxford to MK.

Its not that at all, its more operational issues. They only have a finite amount of 196s to use regardless.

 

[Wyrleybart]

Its not that at all, its more operational issues. They only have a finite amount of 196s to use regardless.

I am sure
This is a statistics led world we live in these days and sadly is the only way the beancounters can function, but the proof of the pudding will be when the basic service is advertised and introduced.

I an sure the Universal project at Wixams will be fed mostly from London, and those that use trains will come from St P. It would be interesting though to see if package companies would offer inclusive trips, which include hotel packages of Oxford hotels and the Universal theme park. A through journey from Oxford to Wixams has to be a selling point surely.

 

[zwk500]

Looks hard to find any estimates, but I'm sure the business case for EWR would have included.

It will have

It's probably why Chiltern haven't started services and won't until December 2025, as they're still working out how many people are likely to travel from Oxford to MK.

The potential passenger numbers will have precisely zero to do with the delays into service. The Business Case has done all that work, and the business case has been approved.

I am sure
This is a statistics led world we live in these days and sadly is the only way the beancounters can function, but the proof of the pudding will be when the basic service is advertised and introduced.

And "the bean counters" are very aware of this, and the economists who have done the forecasting will be very keen to see how accurate their forecasts actually are. Real data is far preferable to forecasted data.