MML Electrification: is it going to be completed?

[GraphitProjekt]

but because it adds to the feeling that they are being ignored,

East mids was the first to lose out on HS2 in the IRP, then at some point lost the consolation prize of a HS line to East Mids Parkway, and now it's lost Midlands Connect and MMLe. Historically speaking the three regions with the lowest per capita transport investment are Northern Ireland, West Country and East Mids, this trend continues it seems.
No hate to TRUP, it's a very good and important project - but it seems to be a protected project because of how many vocal political entities it touches. Also politically speaking, it's like the last dregs that had to happen because of how eviscerated Northern Powerhouse plans have been (i know these two projects have different histories but politics connects them). So in order to justify cancelling incarnations of NPR created by the old Transport for the North group, they have to say they're doing something

 

[Trainbike46]

East mids was the first to lose out on HS2 in the IRP, then at some point lost the consolation prize of a HS line to East Mids Parkway, and now it's lost Midlands Connect and MMLe. Historically speaking the three regions with the lowest per capita transport investment are Northern Ireland, West Country and East Mids, this trend continues it seems.
No hate to TRUP, it's a very good and important project - but it seems to be a protected project because of how many vocal political entities it touches. Also politically speaking, it's like the last dregs that had to happen because of how eviscerated Northern Powerhouse plans have been (i know these two projects have different histories but politics connects them). So in order to justify cancelling incarnations of NPR created by the old Transport for the North group, they have to say they're doing something

Maybe East Midlands local politics needs to get more vocal in demanding railway electrification?

I think the MML should be electrified in full, but it is clear that governments of the different colours view cancelling East Midlands projects as something they can get away with - and it is worth asking why the politicians in Westminster see it that way.

 

[GraphitProjekt]

i suppose it just commands less clout than its main competitor the ECML which is contrastingly quite a romanticised line full of well known historically respected events and (probably more importantly) destinations - York and Durham have been hideouts for southern aristocracy for centuries giving them Old in a Good Way status, whereas Leicester, Nottingham, Derby, Sheffield have been the butts of jokes for years. HSTs were the original death knell for intercity electrification so it's still kind of exceptional that BR could pull off ECML

 

[Nottingham59]

and it is worth asking why the politicians in Westminster see it that way.

I see the main reasons as:

• Lack of visibility. How many MPs go to St Pancras on a Thursday night to get back to their constituencies? Compared to Euston or Kings Cross? And no regional city mayors until very recently.
• Electrifying the whole MML brings no measurable benefits, in terms of delivered transport outputs, for the lifetime of the 810s (30-40 years) and until Cross Country stops using diesel trains (presumed to be 221s and 222s for the next 15 years).
• The MML is not a major mainline. It delivers far fewer passenger-km than the WCML or the ECML. None of the biggest station-to-station passenger flows in GB are carried on the MML, whereas 4 of the top 13 are on the ECML, and 5 are on the WCML. See https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...nsport-flows-measured-in-passenger-km.281106/ for details.

 

[eldomtom2]

We can look at why the costs have gone up - is it across the construction industry, are Network Rail inefficient, was it Scope Creep, who's fault was it that the initial quotes were so wide of the mark etc - but I don't think we can blame the government for this

That depends on what you consider "the government" and whether or not you're including past Conservative governments in it. I'm sure that whatever the cause is there will be measures the government could have taken to reduce the cost impact.

Also, given technological changes, if you can deliver the majority of the benefits (fast acceleration, zero emissions at tailpipe etc) for a minority of the cost (wiring up certain short sections, buying batteries) then of course governments will be happy with that option

Yet the British government hasn't taken that option, at least not yet.

 

[153375]

https://www.networkrailmediacentre....midland-main-line-improvement-work-progresses

Network Rail are still putting out press releases stating upcoming engineering work is in part in conjunction with electrification between Wigston and East Midlands Parkway. Surely they wouldn’t be carrying this out if at least this section isn’t going ahead slowly in the background?

 

[HSTEd]

https://www.networkrailmediacentre....midland-main-line-improvement-work-progresses

Network Rail are still putting out press releases stating upcoming engineering work is in part in conjunction with electrification between Wigston and East Midlands Parkway. Surely they wouldn’t be carrying this out if at least this section isn’t going ahead slowly in the background?

Cynically, have you got a better way to get people to not be upset about disruption?

Even if the project is dead, it has only officially been "paused", which means any work that needs doing can be claimed to be part of it.

 

[cle]

It may well continue in the stealthy way it has crept on. Maybe these mayors can look at Bristol, or Andy's hub and think of new ways to flex their new powers / regional funding.

 

[Bald Rick]

To me, it feels believable that MMLE was junked at the last minute when it became clear savings from WFA/benefit reforms would not materialise

It certainly wasn’t last minute.

 

[GraphitProjekt]

depends on you're definition of last minute i suppose. Politicians were still making positive gestures about MMLe as recently as March. Furthermore, the Electrification & Plant industry is now set to lose most of their workforce having already been 65% down from 2018 levels before this week's news. That isn't a sensible or well thought out way to treat a skills/supply chain suggesting the decision is fairly last minute based on treasury whims, not exactly a managed decline

 

[WAO]

I see the main reasons as:

• Electrifying the whole MML brings no measurable benefits, in terms of delivered transport outputs, for the lifetime of the 810s (30-40 years) and until Cross Country stops using diesel trains (presumed to be 221s and 222s for the next 15 years).

This cannot be true. There must be a significant cost (and performance) advantage to a bimode running off the OLE compared to running on its Diesels, otherwise the route south of Bedford would not have been expensively upgraded for 125mphe, nor the route North of Glendon Jn wired at all. Similarly there would be a saving on running northwards at least to the East Midlands, although the slower less frequent service on to Sheffield might be marginal, or suited to batteries.

The nearest comparison might be the class 73; whose costs on third rail related proportionately to the similar REP power car, on Diesel they related to those of a Thumper. (source: Old MR article)

The pause will cost money, not save money.

WAO

 

[InTheEastMids]

It certainly wasn’t last minute.

Perhaps it felt believable because I've watched too many episodes of the Thick of It.

Network Rail have applied to Nottinghamshire County Council to close the A6006 at the Rempstone Road overbridge at Normanton on Soar from October 6th 2025 to July 17th 2026.
Link to one.network https://one.network/?GB144338046

Plus the idea that Network Rail will spend 6-9 months rebuilding a bridge for a project that is now - at best - on indefinite hold is another Chef's Kiss moment for the continuing sitcom that is UK major infrastructure project delivery.

 

[eldomtom2]

The MML is not a major mainline. It delivers far fewer passenger-km than the WCML or the ECML. None of the biggest station-to-station passenger flows in GB are carried on the MML, whereas 4 of the top 13 are on the ECML, and 5 are on the WCML. See https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...nsport-flows-measured-in-passenger-km.281106/ for details.

The concern is that this is a self-fulfilling prophecy where it gets less traffic because of a lack of investment, which is then used as justification for not investing further in it.

 

[HSTEd]

This cannot be true. There must be a significant cost (and performance) advantage to a bimode running off the OLE compared to running on its Diesels, otherwise the route south of Bedford would not have been expensively upgraded for 125mphe, nor the route North of Glendon Jn wired at all. Similarly there would be a saving on running northwards at least to the East Midlands, although the slower less frequent service on to Sheffield might be marginal, or suited to batteries.

It is also entirely possible that the MML electrification project was pursued primarily as a matter of political signalling rather than on the basis of hard economics.

Or that cost assumptions have changed significantly since then and altered the arithmetic.

 

[WAO]

It is also entirely possible that the MML electrification project was pursued primarily as a matter of political signalling rather than on the basis of hard economics.

Like HS2?

 

[Nottingham59]

There must be a significant cost (and performance) advantage to a bimode running off the OLE compared to running on its Diesels,

I believe the cost of running on NR electricity is comparible to the cost on red diesel. See for instance how often Freight companies are prepared to run 66s for long distances under the wires on the WCML. But I've not seen any detailed cost figures, so there may be marginal cost benefits.

(and performance)

Unfortunately, the 810s were specified to have the same performance on diesel as on AC.

[Which is why they have crammed four (uprated) diesel engines under the floor when there is only really space for three. So it's not surprising that the 810s are having problems with over-heating and wiring looms catching fire.]

otherwise the route south of Bedford would not have been expensively upgraded for 125mph, nor the route North of Glendon Jn wired at all.

Such is politics. Why didn't they publish BCR figures for those projects? I believe breakeven for electrification is around 6tph for suburban EMUs with lots of acceleration between close station calls, and around 8tph for 110mph lines with uninterrupted running.

 

[Energy]

Unfortunately, the 810s were specified to have the same performance on diesel as on AC.

[Which is why they have crammed four (uprated) diesel engines under the floor when there is only really space for three. So it's not surprising that the 810s are having problems with over-heating and wiring looms catching fire.]

There's enough space for four engines but the rest is AnsaldoBreda Hitachi Rail Italy's design...

(I have no source for this, please correct if wrong!)
AFAIK, the wiring looms are the same as the 26m stock with Hitachi coiling up the excess length, which is causing problems.

 

[londonmidland]

https://www.networkrailmediacentre....midland-main-line-improvement-work-progresses

Network Rail are still putting out press releases stating upcoming engineering work is in part in conjunction with electrification between Wigston and East Midlands Parkway. Surely they wouldn’t be carrying this out if at least this section isn’t going ahead slowly in the background?

Some pieces of information from the press release:

There will also be progress made on electrification of the Midland Main Line between Wigston in Leicestershire and East Midlands Parkway. This will allow East Midlands Railway (EMR) to introduce its new greener fleet of bi-mode trains.

One aspect of this will be Network Rail physically lowering sections of track to accommodate overhead line equipment without the need to demolish and rebuild bridges, meaning less disruption and cost.

A compound has been set up ahead of the demolition of a bridge at Sutton Bonington, Nottinghamshire, also for electrical clearance.

Surveys and ground investigations have been carried out at various locations to support design work for electrification of the line north of Wigston, while progress has also been made with the renewal of Wigston Junction.

The latter confirms that the wooden pegs are indeed for survey and ground work, to support electrification.

 

[QSK19]

I think you're being a bit too kind to those that hold the purse-strings and sponsor these schemes. They should have known that a rapid ramp up in electrification (or any other type of activity) and reliance on insufficiently proven technology brings risk. But they looked at the cheap debt and the electoral cycle and told Network Rail to crack on. This kind of behaviour is also a key failure that's part of HS2's tales of woe.



Leics County is now Reform so the idea that Labour make themselves even less popular in favour of some of the folk now on the County Council is frankly demoralising.

To me, it feels believable that MMLE was junked at the last minute when it became clear savings from WFA/benefit reforms would not materialise, and even more needed spending on defence.
Agree with others who think that MMLE and other schemes might've survived were the Mayor of Leicester an influential Labour figure widely perceived to be positioning for a crack at the top job (Cough, Burnham, cough).

Publicly, the logic behind the Pause is alluding to a lack of integration between infrastructure and rolling stock strategies and whilst I'm quite annoyed MMLE has been the victim of this, it is true to say that
- 810s have roughly equal performance on diesel and electric, are brand new and so will probably retain diesel power until a mid-life refurbishment ~15 years after entering service (so, 2094 then?)
- 170s are being done up to last another 15 years; and perhaps more will arrive to replace 158s e.g. 171 if the GTR diesel bits go to battery operation.
- Various Midlands Connect projects around Leicester are not currently progressing
i.e. the benefits are mostly mostly carbon, and perhaps that is better spent elsewhere.

But, of course, your logic is more compelling if it's applied consistently. Few of these factors are true on Great Western
- Most importantly, there's a large fleet of 15x/16x/175 that are, or soon will be at Death's Door
- The 80x fleet that performs worse on diesel, can be batterified and over the next 5-7y thoughts will turn to mid-life refurbs
- There's a more ambitious programme of new stations and services that improve the benefits side of the BCR.

So let's see if there is progress towards conventional and discontinuous electrification in somewhere like GW...
(I'm not holding my breath).

The pattern seems to be that the MML (and the EM TOC in general) is losing out to factors completely unrelated to it - you have stated another example, namely benefits/defence expenditure. Seems to me that the pause (ahem, cancellation) isn’t due to the pros/cons of MMLE itself - it’s a victim of circumstances elsewhere.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Jul 2025 ==

Leics County is now Reform so the idea that Labour make themselves even less popular in favour of some of the folk now on the County Council is frankly demoralising.

I very rarely get into politics on RF (or outside of family and close friends for that matter); but Reform coming into power (albeit with a minority administration) was Labour’s fault for their quite frankly atrocious first year of government. The Tories are very much culpable too, so they don’t escape heavy criticism either. (NB: I am far from a Reform voter!)

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Jul 2025 ==

East mids was the first to lose out on HS2 in the IRP, then at some point lost the consolation prize of a HS line to East Mids Parkway, and now it's lost Midlands Connect and MMLe. Historically speaking the three regions with the lowest per capita transport investment are Northern Ireland, West Country and East Mids, this trend continues it seems.
No hate to TRUP, it's a very good and important project - but it seems to be a protected project because of how many vocal political entities it touches. Also politically speaking, it's like the last dregs that had to happen because of how eviscerated Northern Powerhouse plans have been (i know these two projects have different histories but politics connects them). So in order to justify cancelling incarnations of NPR created by the old Transport for the North group, they have to say they're doing something

Absolutely agree with all of this. I’ve also felt it’s an injustice that TPE seems to get a continuous conveyor belt of new trains, yet EMR had to fight tooth and nail for an incomplete refurbishment of mid-life Connect/Regional hand-me-downs.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Jul 2025 ==

The latter confirms that the wooden pegs are indeed for survey and ground work, to support electrification.

Whilst I’d dearly love to share your optimism, in light of the effective cancellation of MMLE, I don’t get why they’re continuing with this - surely it’s a waste of money considering that this work effectively has no purpose?!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Jul 2025 ==

The MML is not a major mainline.

I disagree on the basis that, for so long as we have to pay IC-level fares, it should be considered a major line. If the DfT wants to make it a secondary line, they should charge regional express level fares - in which case, I would be minded to agree with the passenger-km argument.

I’ve said before that even if a route is only 20 minutes long, if the fares are IC level, then I expect an appropriate level of product, service and infrastructure.

 

[Bald Rick]

Unfortunately, the 810s were specified to have the same performance on diesel as on AC.

Not quite. AIUI They are specified to have the same performance on diesel as the trains they will replace, ie so that they are not slower than existign timings on the non-electrified sections. On AC they will accelerate more quickly.

 

[GraphitProjekt]

Whilst I’d dearly love to share your optimism, in light of the effective cancellation of MMLE, I don’t get why they’re continuing with this - surely it’s a waste of money considering that this work effectively has no purpose?!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Jul 2025 ==

Tbf, the presence of bimodes means that any extra slice of electrification can be used, also remember that class 93s and 99s will be entering the freight sector who could use north-of-leicester sections as well

 

[HSTEd]

The bridge replacement will likely have been paid for years ago, there would no saving from cancellation.

Even survey work was likely contracted an awful long time ago.

 

[Nottingham59]

Not quite. AIUI They are specified to have the same performance on diesel as the trains they will replace, ie so that they are not slower than existign timings on the non-electrified sections.

Yep. The 810s produce 4 x 735kW = 2.94MW on diesel (but only 8 driven axles according to Modern Railways in 2021). I've not seen figures for the power rating of the traction motors. A five car 222 generates 5x556=2.8MW, with ten driven axles. I'd expect the 810s are a bit lighter too.

On AC they will accelerate more quickly.

Do you have a figure for the 810 power on AC?

I was working back from the six-car class 395 which has a power of 3.36MW and a top speed of 140mph. If an 810 on AC has the same power per car, that would be 5/6x3.36 = 2.8MW.


EDIT:
According to Rail Engineer, the Aurora traction motors can deliver 8x290=2.32MW at the rail, so power under AC will not be more than this, at the rail. (Unless they have a short-term boost rating of course)

Aurora - A new dawn for the East Midlands - Rail Engineer

Listen to this article To learn about the major rolling stock changes planned for the Midland Main Line, Rail Engineer was pleased to meet Rachel Turner, head of new trains at East Midlands Railway (EMR). The Midland Railway Main Line from London St. Pancras to Nottingham, Sheffield, Derby, and...

www.railengineer.co.uk

The power supply off-wire is provided by four 735kW Euro5 engines per 5-car set: water-cooled.
Four motored bogies (cars 2 and 4) with 8 x 290kW traction motors.

 

[Bald Rick]

Do you have a figure for the 810 power on AC?

Not to hand, but I know a man who might @hwl

 

[uglymonkey]

Knock on effect, I guess of building the GWML, out of what appears to be solid gold and unobtainium, ( and HS 2 collosal overspend) making politicians very very shy of cost over runs and expense at the moment.

 

[Yew]

• Electrifying the whole MML brings no measurable benefits, in terms of delivered transport outputs, for the lifetime of the 810s (30-40 years) and until Cross Country stops using diesel trains (presumed to be 221s and 222s for the next 15 years).

Cascading to XC, and replacing with an all electric fleet, is not a terrible idea. 23M for route availability and capable of operating at full speed/acceleration off the wires could work very nicely for the sorts of routes they serve.

 

[HSTEd]

Cascading to XC, and replacing with an all electric fleet, is not a terrible idea. 23M for route availability and capable of operating at full speed/acceleration off the wires could work very nicely for the sorts of routes they serve.

Does that have any real advantage over simply buying more Class 810s once they presumably manage to get this batch working?

 

[Bald Rick]

Does that have any real advantage over simply buying more Class 810s once they presumably manage to get this batch working?

The advantage is that an electric only version would be somewhat cheaper to buy and maintain.

 

[HSTEd]

The advantage is that an electric only version would be somewhat cheaper to buy and maintain.

Of course, purchased at the cost of how much on electrification?

 

[WAO]

A Diesel/Electric drive is limited by the engine shaft power x the alternator and inverter control efficiencies. An electric only drive is limited by the allowable short term rating of the traction motors, often 50% above CMR and also adhesion. Just compare the actual acceleration of a bi-mode both pan-up and pan-down. You can feel the extra!

WAO