Russia invades Ukraine

[Killingworth]

Loss of life especially any children in war is shocking but the more disruption of “here’s a message for you all” by Ukraine to the Russian population may make the Russian people sit up but unfortunately Putin & his other puppets like Lavrov, Medvedev etc will soon install more fear & slap them down….or will we see discontent rise & slowly turn into a peoples uprising?

Unfortunately Russian media is not sufficiently open to allow discontent with the regime to grow. Certainly not quickly. If anything it will be manipulated to highlight acts of terrorism to increase support for the regime That's what tends to happen with dictators.

Eventually discontent may grow. However Trump's naive optimism about peace is now being seen as toothless bluff. The worry may be how naive would he be if he had to try using his teeth?

 

[brad465]

What a mission!

Ukraine does it again!

What's also perhaps a bit amusing is if Russia tries the nuclear threat again, we could just easily rebuff with "how do you plan to launch them now most of your delivery capability has been destroyed?"

 

[JamesT]

What's also perhaps a bit amusing is if Russia tries the nuclear threat again, we could just easily rebuff with "how do you plan to launch them now most of your delivery capability has been destroyed?"

Except it hasn’t. The drone strike may have destroyed about a third of Russia’s strategic bombers. They’ve still got the other two thirds, plus all their other methods of delivering nuclear weapons.

 

[brad465]

Except it hasn’t. The drone strike may have destroyed about a third of Russia’s strategic bombers. They’ve still got the other two thirds, plus all their other methods of delivering nuclear weapons.

Thanks Mr Pedantic, I feel really well enlightened now.

 

[DustyBin]

Thanks Mr Pedantic, I feel really well enlightened now.

To be fair a surprising number of people have very little knowledge of this subject, so @JamesT may be forgiven for taking your comment literally.

Based on the reports and footage I’ve seen this is an absolute horror show for the Russians; those aircraft are irreplaceable. Calling it a “terrorist attack” is absolutely laughable (they referred to the sinking of the Moskva in the same way IIRC). Sadly I suspect the Russians will retaliate with a large scale actual terrorist attack against civilian targets as that’s what they excel at. At least now they’ve a few less strategic bombers to use…

 

[Annetts key]

Except it hasn’t. The drone strike may have destroyed about a third of Russia’s strategic bombers. They’ve still got the other two thirds, plus all their other methods of delivering nuclear weapons.

Putin won't use nuclear weapons. China is against it and Putin needs China. Plus, no point having an empire if a large chunk has been destroyed by a retaliation strike and also Putin doesn’t want to die in those circumstances. He wants to be remembered as a great leader of Russia, not as the man that destroyed Russia.

In terms of damage, we don't yet know how bad it is. Some of the aircraft that were destroyed or damaged may have been unserviceable or transport aircraft.

Even if they were all operational Tu-95MS16 and Tu-95MSM "Bear" strategic bombers, Tu-22M3M "Backfire" supersonic long-range strategic strike bombers, Tu-160M and Tu-160M2 "Blackjack" supersonic heavy strategic bombers and a Beriev A-50 "Mainstay" airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft. We don't actually know how many of each type Russia has in total, or how many were operational.

And while the Tu-95MS16 and Tu-95MSM "Bear" strategic bombers and Tu-22M3M "Backfire" supersonic long-range strategic strike bombers are not in production and none of these are ever likely going to be produced again, the Tu-160M2 "Blackjack" supersonic heavy strategic bombers are suppose to be in production. However. it's only low numbers per year (between two and four) and only ten are currently on order (due to lack of funds).

But whatever the physical damage, this is one hell of a shock to the Russian military and to Putin. Expect a retaliation strike against Ukraine. It also gives the Russian airforce a big dilemma. Where do they relocate their military aircraft now that no airfield is "safe"?

 

[Giugiaro]

Where do they relocate their military aircraft now that no airfield is "safe"?

Lockheed Martin has a solution kept under very closed doors:

 

[DustyBin]

Putin won't use nuclear weapons. China is against it and Putin needs China. Plus, no point having an empire if a large chunk has been destroyed by a retaliation strike and also Putin doesn’t want to die in those circumstances. He wants to be remembered as a great leader of Russia, not as the man that destroyed Russia.

In terms of damage, we don't yet know how bad it is. Some of the aircraft that were destroyed or damaged may have been unserviceable or transport aircraft.

Even if they were all operational Tu-95MS16 and Tu-95MSM "Bear" strategic bombers, Tu-22M3M "Backfire" supersonic long-range strategic strike bombers, Tu-160M and Tu-160M2 "Blackjack" supersonic heavy strategic bombers and a Beriev A-50 "Mainstay" airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft. We don't actually know how many of each type Russia has in total, or how many were operational.

And while the Tu-95MS16 and Tu-95MSM "Bear" strategic bombers and Tu-22M3M "Backfire" supersonic long-range strategic strike bombers are not in production and none of these are ever likely going to be produced again, the Tu-160M2 "Blackjack" supersonic heavy strategic bombers are suppose to be in production. However. it's only low numbers per year (between two and four) and only ten are currently on order (due to lack of funds).

But whatever the physical damage, this is one hell of a shock to the Russian military and to Putin. Expect a retaliation strike against Ukraine. It also gives the Russian airforce a big dilemma. Where do they relocate their military aircraft now that no airfield is "safe"?

The A-50 must now be a seriously endangered species. As you say we don’t have accurate numbers, but it seems widely accepted that they had 5, or possibly 6 at the most operational aircraft, and four have now been lost (unless the one damaged in Belarus was repaired). That’s got to leave a capability gap.

 

[brad465]

Looks like there's been another attempt on the Kerch bridge:

Crimea bridge reopens after Ukraine says it carried out underwater explosion

Ukraine says it hit the bridge with underwater explosives - the crossing was built by Russia after it annexed the Crimean Peninsula.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ukrainian video appears to show bridge explosion
​

Ukraine's security service (SBU) has released a video which purports to show the moment an explosion damaged the bridge.

It was released alongside a statement describing the operation, which says explosives detonated by SBU agents damaged the bridge's underwater supports.

The explosion happened in the early hours, it says.

 

[DustyBin]

Looks like there's been another attempt on the Kerch bridge:

Crimea bridge reopens after Ukraine says it carried out underwater explosion

Ukraine says it hit the bridge with underwater explosives - the crossing was built by Russia after it annexed the Crimean Peninsula.

www.bbc.co.uk

They'd been planning it for months apparently.... With the drone attacks and now this, it makes you wonder what else they've been up to!

 

[edwin_m]

After the drone strikes there's likely to be a huge crackdown in Russia with checks on anything that moves, which in itself will further restrict Russia's ability to wage war. But it will also make it more difficult for Ukraine to do these types of operation, so best to let loose with everything before those measures are put in place. There's also the perceptional impact of strikes at (I think) seven sites in Russian (claimed) territory within not much more than a day.

 

[YorkshireBear]

I wonder if it will change trump's mind about them having no cards to play with their frankly audacious and brilliant attack on the airfields. Unfortunately, it looks like Russia is still advancing in most of not all quarters on the front lines so you do have to worry about whether the Russians might overrun a a line at some point.

 

[brad465]

I wonder if it will change trump's mind about them having no cards to play with their frankly audacious and brilliant attack on the airfields. Unfortunately, it looks like Russia is still advancing in most of not all quarters on the front lines so you do have to worry about whether the Russians might overrun a a line at some point.

Trump changes his mind based on whatever the last person to speak to him said, even if that means doing/saying the polar opposite of what was happening before.

 

[brad465]

Another tragic "accident":

Russian minister sacked by Putin found dead

On Monday morning a presidential decree stated that Starovoit had been dismissed from his post.

www.bbc.co.uk

Russia's Investigative Committee says former Russian transport minister Roman Starovoit has been found dead, apparently with a self-inflicted gunshot wound.
He was dismissed earlier on Monday by President Vladimir Putin.
No reason for Starovoit's dismissal was given and deputy transport minister Andrei Nikitin was announced as his replacement shortly after.
The Investigative Committee said it was working to establish the circumstances of the incident.
Starovoit was appointed minister of transport in May 2024.
Before becoming transport minister Starovoit had served as governor of the Kursk region for almost nine years, until May 2024.
The region was partly seized by Ukrainian troops in August 2024 in a surprise offensive. Moscow only managed to drive out the Ukrainian forces earlier this year, although in late June Kyiv said it was still holding a small area of territory inside Russia.
Starovoit's successor, Aleksey Smirnov, was only in post for a short while. He was arrested in April and was later accused of embezzling funds that had been allocated for the building of fortifications on the border with Ukraine.
According to Russian outlet Kommersant, Starovoit was about to be brought in as a defendant in the same case.
It is unclear when, exactly, Starovoit died.
The head of the State Duma Defense Committee, Andrei Kartapolov, told Russian outlet RTVI that his death occurred "quite a while ago".
Earlier on Monday, before Starovoit's death was announced, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was pressed by reporters on whether the dismissal meant Putin had lost trust in Starovoit over the events in Kursk.
"A loss of trust is mentioned if there is a loss of trust. Such wording was not used [in the Kremlin decree]," Peskov replied.

 

[Spamcan81]

Another tragic "accident":

Russian minister sacked by Putin found dead

On Monday morning a presidential decree stated that Starovoit had been dismissed from his post.

www.bbc.co.uk

Self inflicted wound my a*se!

 

[Harpo]

Another tragic "accident":

Shortage of high buildings thereabouts I presume?

 

[Belperpete]

Another tragic "accident":

Russian minister sacked by Putin found dead

On Monday morning a presidential decree stated that Starovoit had been dismissed from his post.

www.bbc.co.uk

So he was dismissed this morning, but his death occurred "quite a while ago"!

Suggests to me that he saw what Putin had in store for him. From a position of power and privilege to a trial with a foregone conclusion followed by indefinite incarceration in some **** hole prison nowhere near his family, with the state washing its hands of him while other prisoners make his life hell. I doubt that Putin would need anyone to pull the trigger.

 

[Trackman]

Trump is sending missile defence systems to Ukraine (sort of), but NATO are picking up the tab. See below:

Ukraine to receive US Patriot air defence systems, says Trump

The US president said he will send weapons to Nato, which he said would pay and then give the weapons to Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

US President Donald Trump has said he will send weapons, including Patriot air defence systems, to Ukraine via Nato.
Trump told NBC News that in a new deal, "we're going to be sending Patriots to Nato, and then Nato will distribute that", adding that Nato would pay for the weapons.
His announcement came after Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke of having a "positive dialogue" with Trump about ensuring that arms arrived on time. He said he had asked for 10 Patriot systems after a surge in Russian drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities in the past week.
Patriot batteries detect and intercept oncoming missiles and are regarded as one of the world's best air defence systems.
Speaking in Rome on Thursday, the Ukrainian leader said Germany was ready to pay for two of the Patriots and Norway for one, while other European partners were also prepared to help.
After a phone-call with Russia's Vladimir Putin last week, Trump said he was "not happy" that progress had not been made towards ending the war, and he has since complained that Putin's "very nice" attitude turned out to be meaningless.
During his interview with NBC News, Trump said he would make a "major statement" on Russia on Monday, but did not say what it would be about.
He said "Nato is going to reimburse the full cost" of the weapons sent on to Ukraine. Nato is funded through the contributions of its members, external, including the US.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Friday that he had urged countries, including Germany and Spain, to hand over some of their existing Patriot batteries, as they could reach Ukraine faster.
"We have continued to encourage our Nato allies to provide those weapons... since they have them in their stocks, then we can enter into financial agreements... where they can purchase the replacements," he said.
The US defence department halted some shipments of critical weapons last week, raising concerns in Kyiv that its air defences could run low in a matter of months.
Among the armaments reported to have been placed on pause were Patriot interceptor missiles and precision artillery shells.
Then, as Ukraine was pounded by record numbers of drone attacks this week, Trump said more weapons would be sent: "We have to... They're getting hit very hard now."
Zelensky had appealed for the shipments to resume, describing the Patriot systems as "real protectors of life".
On Tuesday night, Ukraine was hit by a record 728 drones, with the Ukrainian president warning that Russia wanted to increase that to 1,000.
June saw the highest monthly civilian casualties in Ukraine in three years, with 232 people killed and more than 1,300 injured, according to the UN.

 

[J663738]

What will really force Russia's hand is the looming debt crisis. You can't have interest rates at 20% and expect businesses in your economy to operate normally, while most government spending is on the military There has been a series of nationalisations and assets seizures over the past few days, I expect this to accelerate sharply if Trump makes a key Ukraine announcement on Monday.

 

[J663738]

I wonder Ukraine changed tactics and now targeting transport infrastructure in Russia? Over the past four days there has been severe disruption for flights into and around Moscow due to constant Ukraine drones and presumably Russian anti aircraft fire.

There is also massive train disruption in the south near Rostov, when a building near a key railway junction was hit. Most on line saying this was a sub station or the actual passenger building. But I have geo-located it from a photo of the damaged building and I suspect it was a key signal box or control room for that junction and section of track. Looks like old Soviet architecture and just what you would suspect a control building in the 1930's to look like.

Those in the know, from the damage how quickly could this be repaired?

 

[DustyBin]

I actually have mixed feelings about this:

US President Donald Trump says he has ordered two nuclear submarines to "be positioned in the appropriate regions" in response to "highly provocative" comments by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
In a post on social media, Trump said he acted "just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that. Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances".
He did not say where the two submarines were being deployed.
Medvedev has posted several comments in recent days threatening the US in response to Trump's ultimatum to Moscow to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine, or face tough sanctions.

Trump moves nuclear submarines after ex-Russian president's comments

US President Donald Trump says two nuclear submarines are being deployed in the "appropriate regions".

www.bbc.co.uk

The idiot (Russian one!) is probably best ignored, however I can’t help but think Trump is right to call him out.

I wonder what Putin will think… Reduced vodka allowance?

ETA: In reality I suspect this is more rhetoric than anything.

 

[Peter C]

I actually have mixed feelings about this:

Trump moves nuclear submarines after ex-Russian president's comments

US President Donald Trump says two nuclear submarines are being deployed in the "appropriate regions".

www.bbc.co.uk

The idiot (Russian one!) is probably best ignored, however I can’t help but think Trump is right to call him out.

I wonder what Putin will think… Reduced vodka allowance?

ETA: In reality I suspect this is more rhetoric than anything.

I've just seen this same story linked on the "Thoughts on the Trump Presidency" thread and I was wondering if anyone on here who's been following things more closely than I have would be able to shed some light on it and what this may mean? Is this just Trump showing off?

-Peter

 

[brad465]

I actually have mixed feelings about this:

Trump moves nuclear submarines after ex-Russian president's comments

US President Donald Trump says two nuclear submarines are being deployed in the "appropriate regions".

www.bbc.co.uk

The idiot (Russian one!) is probably best ignored, however I can’t help but think Trump is right to call him out.

I wonder what Putin will think… Reduced vodka allowance?

ETA: In reality I suspect this is more rhetoric than anything.

I'm pretty sure Medvedev has no real power these days: he's in the Russian Security Council, which is basically where Russian politicians who remain loyal to Putin, but have no practical use to him, are sent to. If he were still Prime Minister, or his statement came from the current Prime Minister or even Putin himself, then yes this would be more alarming, even though nuclear threats from Russia so far have all been hollow.

 

[DustyBin]

I've just seen this same story linked on the "Thoughts on the Trump Presidency" thread and I was wondering if anyone on here who's been following things more closely than I have would be able to shed some light on it and what this may mean? Is this just Trump showing off?

-Peter

Well @Cowley posted one theory in the other thread!

I think what it means is Trump’s had enough of Medvedev spouting his nonsense with impunity, so has replied in kind. I strongly suspect the submarines in question are going about their business exactly as they were to be honest.

 

[Peter C]

Well @Cowley posted one theory in the other thread!

I think what it means is Trump’s had enough of Medvedev spouting his nonsense with impunity, so has replied in kind. I strongly suspect the submarines in question are going about their business exactly as they were to be honest.

Ah yes thank you @DustyBin - I saw @Cowley's post just after making my own! Hopefully it does all turn out to be another one of Trump's distraction tactics. To be honest one of the things that concerned me most was this bit from the Guardian (my bold):

Donald Trump has said that he has deployed nuclear-capable submarines to the “appropriate regions” in response to a threatening tweet by Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev, suggesting that he would be ready to launch a nuclear strike as tensions rise over the war in Ukraine.

Which feels like it may be scaremongering just a bit?

-Peter

 

[ainsworth74]

It's a nothing burger. Medvedev has no real power anymore and has been threatening nuclear hellfire on and off for years. This is par for the course.

Trump replying is a new one but he's clearly increasingly fed up Russia and Putin plus he needs a nice distraction from his internal political strife.

Nothing, as yet, to worry about.

 

[edwin_m]

Well @Cowley posted one theory in the other thread!

I think what it means is Trump’s had enough of Medvedev spouting his nonsense with impunity, so has replied in kind. I strongly suspect the submarines in question are going about their business exactly as they were to be honest.

The whole point of the submarines is that the enemy doesn't know where they are.

 

[uglymonkey]

The submarines are out there all the time, ready. "They know that, we know that" . Nothings changed. Trump is making a point.

 

[DustyBin]

The whole point of the submarines is that the enemy doesn't know where they are.

Well, yes. I was surprised when one very publicly surfaced off the Norwegian coast last year, although it was clearly to make a point. I guess when you have multiple subs at sea, giving away the location of one is less of an issue!

 

[Loppylugs]

The whole point of the submarines is that the enemy doesn't know where they are.

Neither does Trump. They were noted recently at the Heard and McDonald islands spying on those pesky penguins.