High fares - The issue that won't go away

[yorksrob]

You would hope even a Minister would appreciate that this is embarrassing, and shows what happens when you price off demand instead of acknowledging the need to lay on adequate capacity.

Agreed. It treats rail travel as a novelty rather than anything anybody can rely on, and is this specifically unhelpful if the aim is to persuade people they can manage without a car (I know that's not the aim, but it needs to be).

Horne said in an interview with Green Signals last week that Advances are what people want and off-peak tickets are "a marginal product", ignoring the fact his company has been pushing people onto advances for decades by pricing them lower than off-peak for trains where off-peak would be valid (with the withdrawal of said off-peak fares being absolutely necessary for completion of the bait-and-switch).

Saying people want whatever slop you happen to be dishing out because they're consuming it seems to be a winning argument with Ministers currently, who appear to think he's got the answers that the entire network needs. But they'll perform whatever mental gymnastics are necessary to avoid the conclusion that we require significant new capacity.

Very true.

If people were so keen on advanced purchase for everything, Horne wouldn't need to actively kill off off-peak fares because no one would use them anyway.

 

[Haywain]

If people were so keen on advanced purchase for everything, Horne wouldn't need to actively kill off off-peak fares because no one would use them anyway.

In the way that off-peak fares haven't been killed off for flows other than London to Newcastle, Berwick and Edinburgh?

 

[Bletchleyite]

In the way that off-peak fares haven't been killed off for flows other than London to Newcastle, Berwick and Edinburgh?

That will absolutely happen in due course. Horne has already decided and the results of the trial will be presented to back that decision up.

I'll eat my hat if there is any other outcome bar possibly slight tweaks to the conditions of the 70 minute product eg partial refundability or fee free changes.

 

[yorksrob]

In the way that off-peak fares haven't been killed off for flows other than London to Newcastle, Berwick and Edinburgh?

You're residing in cloud cuckoo land if you don't think that the intention of this crooked "trial" is to extend it elsewhere.

 

[Haywain]

You're residing in cloud cuckoo land if you don't think that the intention of this crooked "trial" is to extend it elsewhere.

Doesn't alter the fact that it hasn't happened up to now, does it?

 

[yorksrob]

Doesn't alter the fact that it hasn't happened up to now, does it?

What is the point of a "trial" if not to roll out elsewhere.

Plus, even if it isn't rolled out elsewhere , it's still unacceptable to land this abysmal policy on passengers in the North East

 

[crablab]

In the way that off-peak fares haven't been killed off for flows other than London to Newcastle, Berwick and Edinburgh?

What's your view on the LNER fares trial, success thereof and potential for more widespread rollout?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Doesn't alter the fact that it hasn't happened up to now, does it?

I don't think that is relevant. LNER's intentions at the end of what is if I recall stated to be a two year trial are clear.

 

[Lewisham2221]

I don't think that is relevant. LNER's intentions at the end of what is if I recall stated to be a two year trial are clear.

Not just LNER - there's a recent article in The Standard which appears to suggest we should expect it across GBR:

LNER is ‘blueprint’ for train nationalisation, minister says​

Lord Hendy praised the operator for putting ‘passengers first’ and described it as a ‘trailblazer for innovation’.

LNER is the “blueprint” for renationalising all train services in Britain, the rail minister said.
Lord Hendy praised the operator for putting “passengers first” and described it as a “trailblazer for innovation”.

Lord Hendy said: “LNER is making more journeys than ever under public ownership and has become a trailblazer for innovation across our railways from trialling simpler tickets to using antennas to boost wi-fi.

“They’ve proven time and again that public ownership can deliver cutting-edge services that put passengers first, and this is a blueprint that we’ll be following as we overhaul the rail network and set up Great British Railways (GBR).”

 

[yorksrob]

Not just LNER - there's a recent article in The Standard which appears to suggest we should expect it across GBR:

It's looking more and more like an Establishment stitch-up of passengers

I don't trust em.

 

[gc4946]

Not just LNER - there's a recent article in The Standard which appears to suggest we should expect it across GBR:

In other words, introduction of single leg pricing and 70-minute flex fares, abolition of flexible, refundable super-off-peak fares

 

[Bletchleyite]

In other words, introduction of single leg pricing and 70-minute flex fares, abolition of flexible, refundable super-off-peak fares

And huge fare increases.

 

[modernrail]

Doesn't alter the fact that it hasn't happened up to now, does i

Doesn't alter the fact that it hasn't happened up to now, does it?

So do you think the likely outcome of the trail is that either
(A) LNER won’t move to extend to other journeys or
(b) LNER will keep the fares on the current journeys only whilst not rolling them out further?

If it is neither of these I don’t see your point.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Jun 2025 ==

It's looking more and more like an Establishment stitch-up of passengers

I don't trust em.

I don’t know a lot about Hendy. The new boss of the NHS is a legend in his own area and has given a major interview blasting the NHS and saying it is build to give patients a bad experience. He is very critical indeed of a patient unfriendly culture he erased in his own trust leading to it being by far the best performing in the country.

He has massive criticism of how bloated the management structures are etc. He seems to be, as we hear far too little of these days, a man of the people and for the people.

What is Hendy like within that context? If he seriously feels able to lie and say 70 mins flex is an improved offer for customers I am struggling to believe he isn’t part of the problem.

What other innovations has LNER trialled that have really improved life? Certainly not comfortable seats, trains that don’t shake over points, affordable peak fares etc etc.

It runs the countries consistently most close to profit line. It is doing the minimum compared to its predecessors on the same line, with hardly any improvements and a big step back in on board comfort.

Horn lists: digital ticketing and greener trains to inclusive travel and simpler fares.

What on earth is he talking about. Hopefully not a half decent app that already existed, trains that run on electricity ordered by its predecessor, inclusive travel???, simpler fares through the fares trial (outright lie). If that really is his list, he is clearly not worthy of his salary.

 

[Haywain]

So do you think the likely outcome of the trail is that either
(A) LNER won’t move to extend to other journeys or
(b) LNER will keep the fares on the current journeys only whilst not rolling them out further?

If it is neither of these I don’t see your point.

My point is that at present there are very large numbers of off-peak tickets available for LNER journeys, and yet Advance tickets are still sold in enormous numbers. This was the case long before the 'fares trial'. I don't believe that it is necessary to have a view on what follows the fares trial in order to comment on current and past ticket sales.

 

[Bald Rick]

Looking at the inflation calculator, £20 from 1992 should now be around £44.

I think your inflation calculator is out. The RPi index (Jan 1974 = 100) for June 1992 is 549.5, for May 2025 it is 1589.4. That is an iflator of 2.9, meaning £22 in June 1992 is the same as £63.63 now.

No but we are building new roads, and widening roads, including motorways and major routes like the A14. In a way that we are not able to widen, for example, problematic railway bottlenecks like the line through Manchester Piccadilly and Oxford Road.

And we are able to widen problematic railway bottlenecks like, say, Huddersfield to Ravensthorpe (amongest may others in recent history.

If people were so keen on advanced purchase for everything, Horne wouldn't need to actively kill off off-peak fares because no one would use them anyway.

Yet there are still off peak fares for, say, London - Leeds. Woudl you like to guess which is more popular between London and Leeds: Advance or off peak?

 

[redreni]

And we are able to widen problematic railway bottlenecks like, say, Huddersfield to Ravensthorpe (amongest may others in recent history.

Fair point.

Yet there are still off peak fares for, say, London - Leeds. Woudl you like to guess which is more popular between London and Leeds: Advance or off peak?

Here's a thought experiment: if Advances on the London to Edinburgh and Newcastle flows had increased as they have during the trial but off-peak tickets had been retained, what do we think would have happened to the sales of off-peak tickets on those flows?

*Of course" people buy Advances on the flows where off-peak has been retained, because Advances on those flows are priced more cheaply than off-peaks so that's what online retailers show first and foremost in journey planner results. Even if not a single person currently buys off-peaks on those flows, that wouldn't alter the fact people who buy Advances would be exposed to almost totally unconstrained price increases if that ticket type (which they do not buy) is withdrawn.

 

[JamesT]

I think your inflatio;calculatir is out. The RPi index (Jan 1974 = 100) for June 1992 is 549.5, for May 2025 it is 1589.4. That is an iflator of 2.9, meaning £22 in June 1992 is the same as £63.63 now.

Using the Bank of England inflation calculator at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator which is CPI rather than RPI, £22 in 1992 becomes £48.64 in May 2025.

 

[yorksrob]

Yet there are still off peak fares for, say, London - Leeds. Woudl you like to guess which is more popular between London and Leeds: Advance or off peak?

Who cares.

Greggs sausage roll is probably more popular than their vegetable slice.

It doesn't follow that they should only sell sausage rolls.

 

[Watershed]

My point is that at present there are very large numbers of off-peak tickets available for LNER journeys, and yet Advance tickets are still sold in enormous numbers. This was the case long before the 'fares trial'. I don't believe that it is necessary to have a view on what follows the fares trial in order to comment on current and past ticket sales.

It's not that everyone necessarily wants an Off-Peak ticket, but rather that the existence of Off-Peak fares inherently caps Advance fares.

 

[Haywain]

It's not that everyone necessarily wants an Off-Peak ticket, but rather that the existence of Off-Peak fares inherently caps Advance fares.

I'm well aware of that and not making any claims to the contrary.

 

[redreni]

I'm well aware of that and not making any claims to the contrary.

You don't think it fatally undermines the point you are making, then?

A world where we lost the walk-up railway but retained predictability and affordability in fares might give rise to a different conversation, and you may have a point that most people wouldn't really notice or mind, but that's not the world we're living in. We need the flexible off-peak fare or we lose any semblance of affordability. We need it even if nobody ever buys it.

 

[Haywain]

You don't think it fatally undermines the point you are making, then?

I don't believe that it undermines the point that very large numbers of people prefer Advance tickets to the flexibility of off-peak tickets, no. The fact that off-peak tickets also represent a price cap is coincidental as the same situation exists where the fares trial is in place, except that the cap then is the Anytime fare. The difference is where the price cap falls and what the price of flexibility is.

I pay train fares at the same rate as every other Senior Railcard holder and have an interest in how much I pay. I would also be happier to pay higher levels of income tax to provide better public services, but I recognise that much as it is important to me, it isn't the high priority that some here want it to be and that isn't likely to change.

 

[redreni]

I don't believe that it undermines the point that very large numbers of people prefer Advance tickets to the flexibility of off-peak tickets, no. The fact that off-peak tickets also represent a price cap is coincidental as the same situation exists where the fares trial is in place, except that the cap then is the Anytime fare. The difference is where the price cap falls and what the price of flexibility is.

I pay train fares at the same rate as every other Senior Railcard holder and have an interest in how much I pay. I would also be happier to pay higher levels of income tax to provide better public services, but I recognise that much as it is important to me, it isn't the high priority that some here want it to be and that isn't likely to change.

The apparent preference for inflexibility is only achieved by all but hiding more flexible tickets. My mother worried about evening peak restrictions on her super off-peak day returns from Waterbeach to London for years until I realised and told her she could pay an extra 70p for an off-peak day return with no evening peak restrictions. It's not that she preferred less flexibility, it's that she didn't realise additional flexibility was available for a negligible extra cost. Most online retailers all but hide the other available fares and do a poor job of setting out what additional flexibility they offer even if you do select them, so of course few people buy them.

Try tolling motorways by way of tickets that let you join a specific motorway at a specific junction within a 10 or 20 minute window, and you have to drive all the way to your nominated exit or you might get penalised or prosecuted, and see if people prefer that over something a bit more flexible.

 

[alistairlees]

I don't believe that it undermines the point that very large numbers of people prefer Advance tickets to the flexibility of off-peak tickets, no. The fact that off-peak tickets also represent a price cap is coincidental as the same situation exists where the fares trial is in place, except that the cap then is the Anytime fare. The difference is where the price cap falls and what the price of flexibility is.

I pay train fares at the same rate as every other Senior Railcard holder and have an interest in how much I pay. I would also be happier to pay higher levels of income tax to provide better public services, but I recognise that much as it is important to me, it isn't the high priority that some here want it to be and that isn't likely to change.

No one prefers Advance (inflexible) tickets to Off-peak (flexible) tickets. What they do prefer is cheaper tickets. And those happen to often be advance tickets. On the occasions where advance tickets are more expensive than off peak tickets (it does happen) then people buy the cheaper off peak tickets.

 

[Hadders]

No one prefers Advance (inflexible) tickets to Off-peak (flexible) tickets. What they do prefer is cheaper tickets. And those happen to often be advance tickets. On the occasions where advance tickets are more expensive than off peak tickets (it does happen) then people buy the cheaper off peak tickets.

Or to expand a bit further, in many cases an Advance ticket is often a small amount cheapert than the Off Peak ticket (eg £1 or even 10p). In such cases it is sensible for the flexible Off Peak ticket to be sold but the way fares are often presented to customers means they often end up buying the Advance ticket.

 

[Bald Rick]

Using the Bank of England inflation calculator at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator which is CPI rather than RPI, £22 in 1992 becomes £48.64 in May 2025.

Yes, that’s true, but as rail fares have been linked to RPI for almost all that intervening third of a century, I would argue that RPI is more appropriate in this example.

Even though I am a firm advocate of RPI being abolished. Which it will be soon.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Jun 2025 ==

Who cares.

Greggs sausage roll is probably more popular than their vegetable slice.

It doesn't follow that they should only sell sausage rolls.

They are, of course, different products.

Greggs dont sell an advance purchase sausage roll that’s cheaper at certain times if you book ahead. Or at least I don’t think they do (not being a Greggs customer for the last decade)

 

[Krokodil]

Greggs dont sell an advance purchase sausage roll that’s cheaper at certain times if you book ahead. Or at least I don’t think they do (not being a Greggs customer for the last decade)

So we can confidently say that a flexible sausage roll is more popular than an advance sausage roll then? On the basis that more people buy the product that actually exists. Just like you claimed that LNER's advances are more popular on the basis of sales, regardless of other possible factors like how well informed passengers are about the options and the fact that two variables are being changed which makes scientific comparison impossible.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yet there are still off peak fares for, say, London - Leeds. Woudl you like to guess which is more popular between London and Leeds: Advance or off peak?

I'd bet Advance. However what is important is that the reason people prefer Advances is that they are cheaper, i.e. price is the highest priority, and if the Super Off Peak Single is removed then the price of the Advances will go up. They clearly don't prefer Advances because they are less flexible, why would anyone prefer a less flexible fare? The complexity is irrelevant given that most people buy against an itinerary and stick to it, just the price.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Jun 2025 ==

No one prefers Advance (inflexible) tickets to Off-peak (flexible) tickets. What they do prefer is cheaper tickets. And those happen to often be advance tickets. On the occasions where advance tickets are more expensive than off peak tickets (it does happen) then people buy the cheaper off peak tickets.

This.

I do see that the 70 minute ticket might be popular as offering simpler flexibility than understanding the time restrictions of an Off Peak, but in that case why not just add it to the offering or offer it as a buy up when you select an Advance? The reason why not is that LNER want to increase fares, and based on Edinburgh when (and I do believe it's when) it rolls out further fares across the affected routes will increase by at least 30% as they have to Edinburgh. Probably worse on some routes as some Anytimes are higher per mile than that one.

 

[Adam Williams]

In terms of the comparison with Greggs, I would argue that there are, in fact, two tiers of sausage roll in the tariff:

• The variant without VAT, which is cheaper and sold by default, and can be eaten either inside the store, or outside the store because the staff aren't paid enough to care about such matters
• The variant with VAT, which is supposed to be selected by people sitting down to eat

I think it is incredibly likely that the first tier is the one overwhelmingly sold to customers, and yet it is not necessarily less flexible than the more expensive product.

This is most unlike the rail industry, where passengers are giving up real rights, often not really knowingly, and only find out after the fact that they're screwed when they want to travel to a different destination, get a refund or change the operator they're travelling with.

 

[Kite159]

Generally speaking, the majority of long distance passengers will be travelling from point A to point B in one go, therefore when they are presented with the option of an advance fare for £49.50 or a super off-peak single fare for £50.00 they will generally select the advance fare to save 50p (or most likely won't be offered the option of the £50 fare and the option of jumping off half-way because their seat has a bar underneath or the train is hopelessly overcrowded.

All LNER have done is remove that £50 option and all of a sudden that £49.50 fare jumps to £99.50 with the flexible being £100.00 when it's a Sunday afternoon when the WCML is closed & a sporting event is happening