Chris Gibb - fallout from HS2 proposal on stock and what are/were the options

[fishwomp]

Viewpoint: Buy tilting trains and finish Delta Junction to salvage HS2, says Gibb

UK: Procurement of a fleet of tilting trains and a focus on Birmingham – Manchester services are key to making the most of the descoped High Speed 2 scheme, former Virgin Trains executive Chris Gibb tells Rail Business UK. UK: Amid the ‘reset’ of the embattled High Speed 2 programme which will...

www.railwaygazette.com

Summary:

• OOC to Brum now not expected to open until 2037
• Pendolino will be life expired 2037-2040
• New tilting stock with 286m length should be procured for London to Glasgow and Manchester with 300kmh top speed
• Fit out Handsacre north curve and run Brum - Manchester over that with existing order of 200m stock instead of XC service, in addition to use on the London - Birmingham services

Sounds reasonable to me. Am wondering what the HS2 rolling stock will be doing between say 2030 and 2037.. Long Marston storage, or actually get used...?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't see any sense in tilt to be honest. It looks like it will be possible to get most of the WCML to 125mph without it, and it limits loading gauge, I love how spacious the Avanti 80x are without it after years of tilt profile Voyagers and Pendolinos.

286m is the present length of an 11 car Pendolino, is it not? I would go 300m for a small capacity expansion, it would only need small platform extensions or none at all in some cases where the back could just hang off.

Otherwise this makes a lot of sense. As for the HS2 200m units, TPE is going to need a load of EMUs for its electrification, isn't it, and maybe that length would be good for ScotRail's forthcoming electrified longer distance routes? Or would the cost of changing part of the order to 275 or 300m units be affordable? WMT after all mucked about with the 730 order substantially and it wasn't unaffordable to do so.

 

[Zomboid]

Personally I think he's onto something there.

Also how are we still 12 years away from a partial opening? That's absurd.

 

[sprinterguy]

286m is the present length of an 11 car Pendolino, is it not? I would go 300m for a small capacity expansion, it would only need small platform extensions or none at all in some cases where the back could just hang off.

11 car Pendolinos are 265m - The additional proposed 21 metres is the capacity extension to suit existing infrastructure limitations at the likes of Glasgow Central and Manchester Piccadilly, and SDO at some intermediate stations.

Overall, this sounds like a sensible proposal to salvage maximum benefit from the residual HS2 route and the planned HS2 train fleet, if it's not possible or cost effective to vary the fleet consist, while tying in with the timescales of Pendolino replacement.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Jun 2025 ==

Also how are we still 12 years away from a partial opening? That's absurd.

It's impressive: For every year that passes, it seems like the opening date moves another two years further into the future.

 

[Bletchleyite]

11 car Pendolinos are 265m - The additional proposed 21 metres is the capacity extension to suit existing infrastructure limitations at the likes of Glasgow Central and Manchester Piccadilly, and SDO at some intermediate stations.

Ah, of course, I read that as 268 rather than 286 and was thinking about the odd lengths of Pendolino coaches (24 intermediate, 25 end I think).

I'd just go for 300m (12x25m) and deal with the platform issues. That way it can probably be formed out of an adjusted HS2 stock order as that's 25m vehicles.

Overall, this sounds like a sensible proposal to salvage maximum benefit from the residual HS2 route and the planned HS2 train fleet, if it's not possible or cost effective to vary the fleet consist, while tying in with the timescales of Pendolino replacement.

True, though I remain of the view that tilt is not necessary and was a late-1990s fad once 140mph on classic lines had been forgotten about.

It's impressive: For every year that passes, it seems like the opening date moves another two years further into the future.

I support the project but it is flabbergasting how utterly mismanaged it has been. Though no doubt once it's opened all that will be forgotten, just as it was for the Lizzie and Edinburgh tram, both of which were spectacularly badly managed and over budget but have in the end delivered a successful and popular service once opened.

 

[birchesgreen]

I don't see any sense in tilt to be honest. It looks like it will be possible to get most of the WCML to 125mph without it, and it limits loading gauge, I love how spacious the Avanti 80x are without it after years of tilt profile Voyagers and Pendolinos.

I agree with you, i travelled the same journey two weeks in a row, the first on an ex-AWC 221 and the second on an AWC 805, huge improvement.

 

[sprinterguy]

True, though I remain of the view that tilt is not necessary and was a late-1990s fad once 140mph on classic lines had been forgotten about.

I tend to agree that the tilt element of the proposal is unnecessary, for much the same reason.

 

[Harpo]

Chris Gibb is among the last of the great pragmatic railwaymen who have covered the whole spectrum of operation. All the more reason for DfT to insist that they know best.

 

[The Planner]

I don't see any sense in tilt to be honest. It looks like it will be possible to get most of the WCML to 125mph without it, and it limits loading gauge, I love how spacious the Avanti 80x are without it after years of tilt profile Voyagers and Pendolinos.

I'd beg to differ, the current non EPS uplift has very little 125.

 

[stuu]

Personally I think he's onto something there.

Also how are we still 12 years away from a partial opening? That's absurd.

I don't see how that possibly be true, I would believe it including Euston... But on the section under construction, the tunneling is nearly all done, all the viaducts are well under construction, and the actual earthworks are progressing reasonably. From the drone videos I have seen I don't see any reason that the basic formation won't be finished by the end of 2027. It's not going to take another 10 years to do the railway systems, it just isn't possible

 

[mike57]

still 12 years away

Which probably means more like 15...

I'd beg to differ, the current non EPS uplift has very little 125.

But how much could be squeezed out of the current railway without major reconstruction?

The proposals make sense, its the first sensible 'where do we go from here' that I have seen published. I dont know if the government and DfT will listen however.

 

[JonathanH]

It's not going to take another 10 years to do the railway systems, it just isn't possible

It is possible if the taps on funding are turned right down to a trickle.

 

[chris2]

Interesting plan, and in one sense i see that it’s important for the railway to come up with a workable plan for how to make the best of what’s being built, and also to show willing to treasury.

But, the question is, does Gibb’s proposal deliver the transformational capacity uplift that HS2 was initially built to produce?

 

[Bletchleyite]

But, the question is, does Gibb’s proposal deliver the transformational capacity uplift that HS2 was initially built to produce?

It delivers more capacity than running 200m rather than 265m trains to Manchester and Scotland on present frequencies does, which is what is going to happen if something like this isn't done. 400m would be great but you need to do a lot of building for that.

Single 300ish metre trains also means no need for double crewing.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

It is possible if the taps on funding are turned right down to a trickle.

Slowing it down like that would guarantee it ends up costing a lot more overall... The politicians should have learned that by now!!

 

[birchesgreen]

Slowing it down like that would guarantee it ends up costing a lot more overall... The politicians should have learned that by now!!

Problem with politicians is, they know it will be someone else's problem!

 

[stuu]

It is possible if the taps on funding are turned right down to a trickle.

The spending review announced £25bn for HS2 up to 2030, which definitely isn't a trickle

 

[Transilien]

I don't see any sense in tilt to be honest. It looks like it will be possible to get most of the WCML to 125mph without it

Wouldn't it have already been done if it was possible?

 

[NCT]

With such a scaled down operation I'm not sure it makes much sense to have too many sub fleets and non-standard products.

The winning rolling stock tender is based on the standard 25m carriages - a tried and tested global standard. As far as I'm aware there's no 300km/h tilting stock available from anyone. 10-car 250m trains should (hopefully) not break the modularity of trains that usually come in 200m lengths - i.e. just an extra motor+trailor combo that doesn't upset the usual ratios, and those trains can all run where 11-car Pendos can run today.

Curzon Street services use 200m sets (I can see Birmingham - Euston needing couple sets in the future), everything else 250m. Two sub fleets with identical modular components ought to be just about manageable.

 

[HSTEd]

Does 300kph tilting stock with significant tilt angles actually exist?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Does 300kph tilting stock with significant tilt angles actually exist?

Not significant tilt angles but I expect Talgo can do it. That said I'm not sure I'd bring them into anything as they appear to have a very poor reputation for reliability at present, to the point that DB is considering canning part of their order (see the dedicated thread on that).

 

[erikvd28]

Not even a 2030 finish date for OOC - BCS? That would make the anti's even more vocal..

 

[vuzzeho]

Does 300kph tilting stock with significant tilt angles actually exist?

The Avelia Liberty?

 

[Sorcerer]

The only 300km/h tilting trains I know of are the N700 Shinkansen series where it only tilts by one degree on already canted curves and only at a top speed of 270km/h, and the Avelia Liberty which will only tilt at around 6.3 degrees and only on the coaches with non-tilting power cars on each end. I think the best way to salvage the project at this point is to have 250m trains that can reach 300-330km/h on HS2 with an ability to tilt on the classic mainline. Talgo might be able to pull it off, and I believe Alstom could probably do so with a Pendolino derivative. I say 250m because it's only 15m shorter than an 11-coach Pendolino but can also carry an equivalent or even greater number of seats.

 

[erikvd28]

I wonder if even heavily sanctioned Russia with their own 'HS2' from Moscow to St. Petersburg (679km with up to 220mph speed) will be done before HS2 will even be in operation. Currently the cost is around 19 billion pounds and some parts are already under construction according to openrailwaymap

Moscow–Saint Petersburg high-speed railway - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[HighlandStorm]

But, the question is, does Gibb’s proposal deliver the transformational capacity uplift that HS2 was initially built to produce?

It avoids the unacceptable loss of capacity to Scotland that the current curtailed shambles means. Plus didn’t Gibbs original proposal show tilt on the WCMl is more valuable than full line speed on HS2 for Glasgow / Edinburgh journey time?

We should be approaching a transformational step change in London Scotland journey time and capacity that negates almost any need for internal mainland to mainland flights except perhaps to/from Northern Scotland.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It avoids the unacceptable loss of capacity to Scotland that the current curtailed shambles means. Plus didn’t Gibbs original proposal show tilt on the WCMl is more valuable than full line speed on HS2 for Glasgow / Edinburgh journey time?

We should be approaching a transformational step change in London Scotland journey time and capacity that negates almost any need for internal mainland to mainland flights except perhaps to/from Northern Scotland.

I think you'd need to build 2A as well to achieve that. But I would agree that the capacity reduction isn't acceptable, nor really is the loss of direct services between North West stations and Scotland and the possible entire loss of Lancaster-London services in some of the HS2 proposals. 200/400m was never really a good fit for the UK even if it is a European standard - 200 is too short for most applications (aside from non-London services like TPE and XC for which they would probably be ideal) and 400 difficult to accommodate with the infrastructure - the sweet spot is single units of around 250-300m as Gibb proposes.

 

[NCT]

200m/400m made a lot of sense with the full HS2. Most of the classic compatible paths were planned as 2x200m units joined together so you weren't wasting capacity. There is clearly enough market potential for Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds to be captive to take advantage of the enhanced gauge, and as a subfleet it would be large enough to be a sensible order. Keeping trains at 200m/400m means the trains are as 'off the shelf' as possible, even the classic-compatible sets.

 

[Bletchleyite]

200m/400m made a lot of sense with the full HS2.

It made sense when ALL of it was being built - 2A, 2B and the eastern leg.

The more it's been lopped the more it's just become a third (fourth) pair of tracks on the south WCML, and in that context single full length units make a lot more sense.

 

[MarkyT]

I wonder if the existing order might be reformed such that a pair of 200m trains is replaced by one of ~260m and another of ~140m. That would use the same number of driving cars and still allow 400m trains to be made up from one of each, also two shorter units might be combined to be the equivalent of one longer version at ~280m. Similar to the 5 and 9 car IET formations.

I don't know if the current proposal includes sufficient panto/trafo cars for the proposal. CGI renders and videos I have seen show a single panto raised on an intermediate car. Recent 8-car Zefiros used in Italy have single pantographs on four of the intermediates but that may be for dual voltage reasons, and I've only seen one raised in motion on 25kV infrastructure. A similar Zefiro train seen on a test run in a Chinese video has two pantographs on intermediate cars with only one raised, which makes sense for a 25kV only unit.