London to Switzerland direct?

[JonasB]

What is the potential size of traffic ? What is the flight capacity currently offered between Switzerland and London ?

Looking at a random date next week I see 21 daily flights from Zürich, 6 daily flights from Basel and 14 daily flights from Geneva to London. Most of them on planes from the A320-family as well as some A220 or Embraers, so there is probably enough demand to fill a train or two.

 

[AndrewE]

Or Strasbourg, which might have some mileage traffic-wise. It should be possible to do Basel-London with stops at Strasbourg and Lille in 5h which would be slightly faster than via Dijon.
An interesting thought: if services are operated from the "country" end rather than London, the following service pattern is possible with a 5hr journey:
A 0600 - STP 1000/1200 - A 1800 - Z
Z - A 1100 - STP 1500/1700 - A 2300
This gives A an out-and-back business service and A and Z a leisure timing, ideal for those who live outside Zone 1
If A is Frankfurt, Z can be Munich (or even Berlin). Basel and Milan, Lyon and Nice...

don't forget to add in the hour at Lille...

 

[30907]

don't forget to add in the hour at Lille...

I am assuming that that is an "obstacle" HMG will "resolve"
(While buying shares in Wildboar Airways....)

 

[Krokodil]

They could decide to open up a UK border control office at the Swiss stations. They did that at Amsterdam and Rotterdam when Eurostar started serving them. It would add more cost so who knows if they would.

They had a Brussels shuffle to begin with, before direct UK-bound services started two and a half years later.

 

[Trainbike46]

They had a Brussels shuffle to begin with, before direct UK-bound services started two and a half years later.

The Brussels shuffle was temporary*, and primarily caused by Dutch and British politicians taking their sweet time to sort out a treaty to allow British border controls in the Netherlands.

If Eurostar could have gone for direct services both ways from the start they would have, but political nonsense prevented that.

*Of course, Eurostar, thalys, NS, and NMBS/SNCB offered a range of through tickets for many years before Eurostar started direct services in either direction

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 May 2025 ==

Maybe Swiss politicians will be more efficient at sorting out an agreement than the Dutch were?

The fact that high-level political meetings have happened would be a hopeful sign in that matter.

 

[TheWierdOne]

Maybe Swiss politicians will be more efficient at sorting out an agreement than the Dutch were?

From what little I know of Swiss politics, it will either get sorted tremendously efficiently through healthy pragmatism, or get bogged down in referenda until long after other countries have worked it out

 

[LLivery]

SNCF is currenly nuclear to their partners and I don't think SBB really wants anything to do with it before it, and likely just want to GTFO before it just erupts as it did in Italy in 2012 and in Spain in 2022 (Trenitalia took 9 years before restoring a day service, Renfe is doing Renfe and we don't know how long it will take). And the announcement of their own service is the prime example.

Count any new international Swiss service without SNCF.

Interesting, thank you. I didn't realise it what that bad.

 

[Krokodil]

The Brussels shuffle was temporary*, and primarily caused by Dutch and British politicians taking their sweet time to sort out a treaty to allow British border controls in the Netherlands.

If Eurostar could have gone for direct services both ways from the start they would have, but political nonsense prevented that.

*Of course, Eurostar, thalys, NS, and NMBS/SNCB offered a range of through tickets for many years before Eurostar started direct services in either direction

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 May 2025 ==

Maybe Swiss politicians will be more efficient at sorting out an agreement than the Dutch were?

The fact that high-level political meetings have happened would be a hopeful sign in that matter.

There will undoubtedly be a similarly temporary Lille shuffle of some sort, the British Home Office is unlikely to be any quicker this time around.

 

[Trainbike46]

There will undoubtedly be a similarly temporary Lille shuffle of some sort, the British Home Office is unlikely to be any quicker this time around.

A temporary Lille shuffle may well happen, but the issue last time was more from the Dutch side than the British side, as I understand it.

The Dutch government is being absurdly awkward about this whole border checks in general, as seen by the current situation of the Dutch government providing insufficient border officials at the expanded Amsterdam terminal, and the fact that the Dutch government charges eurostar for the border controls in Amsterdam and Rotterdam, while the same border control at Schiphol airport is not charged to either the airport or the airlines (so not exactly a level playing field).

 

[stadler]

Can anyone remind me which trains made you get off at Lille and do passport control? Was it all three of the Bourg Saint Maurice and Marseille and Marne La Vallee routes that did this? Also does anyone remember how long it waited there for?

If getting off at Lille to go through passport control is required then it makes me wonder what the point of a direct Switzerland service is. You might as well just have a separate Switzerland to Lille service to connect. Also i am sure the existing options of going from Switzerland to London via Paris will probably be more convenient as they will likely run much more frequently than anything direct that Eurostar will operate so perhaps through tickets for these would be a better option.

 

[Trainbike46]

Can anyone remind me which trains made you get off at Lille and do passport control? Was it all three of the Bourg Saint Maurice and Marseille and Marne La Vallee routes that did this? Also does anyone remember how long it waited there for?

I believe it was just Marseille and Bourg St Maurice, Marne La Vallee had French exit checks at MLV, and British entry checks at St Pancras.

If getting off at Lille to go through passport control is required then it makes me wonder what the point of a direct Switzerland service is. You might as well just have a separate Switzerland to Lille service to connect. Also i am sure the existing options of going from Switzerland to London via Paris will probably be more convenient as they will likely run much more frequently than anything direct that Eurostar will operate so perhaps through tickets for these would be a better option.

For starters, a Switzerland-Lille direct service doesn't currently exist, so that still requires a new service.
Direct in one way still offers a much improved service over transferring both ways, and when the Amsterdam service became direct in one direction, passenger numbers increased over the old situation (transfer at Brussels in both directions, but integrated ticketing). Of course, passenger numbers increased further when it started to run direct both ways, despite the option of changing trains in Brussels continuing to be more frequent.

Through tickets via Paris were (re)introduced in the last few years (they exist now, but didn't when I last went to Geneva in I think 2023). At that time, Eurostar to Amsterdam and then a sleeper train to Basel was price competive with the much more direct route via Paris.

 

[Krokodil]

If getting off at Lille to go through passport control is required then it makes me wonder what the point of a direct Switzerland service is. You might as well just have a separate Switzerland to Lille service to connect.

It would only be an issue in one direction, it provides a guaranteed connection, and it might only be temporary while the service is established like it was on the Amsterdam route.

 

[styles]

They could add a stop in Marne-la-Vallée Chessy/Disneyland.

Didn't the St Pancras to Marne-la-Vallée Chessy/Disneyland service get canned specifically due to border control logistics/cost? Can't see it returning any time soon if so.

 

[NCT]

It would only be an issue in one direction, it provides a guaranteed connection, and it might only be temporary while the service is established like it was on the Amsterdam route.

Is Switzerland even remotely comparable as Amsterdam as a Channel Tunnel market?

The biggest Swiss markets would be Zurich and Geneva, which are both an hour away from Basel. If Basel is 5.5 hours away then Zurich and Geneva will be 6.5. This is well beyond the magic threshold of 3 hours so even willingness to pay won't help much.

I suppose one of the French islands at Basel could conceivably be blocked off, but I struggle to see the point of it if most passengers are to/from Zurich and Geneva. Can the Swiss domestic network handle trains that don't act as part of the integrated takt within Switzerland? All TGVs and ICEs are regular Swiss trains within Switzerland. I guess a 'sterile' British passenger train could be considered a freight train ...

This only really leaves a Lille shuffle as the only viable option, which TBH isn't that ridiculous, as such a train would also open up new journey opportunities within the Schengen area.

Where trains operated with a Lille shuffle in the past - were passengers required to take all their belongings with them off the train?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 May 2025 ==

A temporary Lille shuffle may well happen, but the issue last time was more from the Dutch side than the British side, as I understand it.

The Dutch government is being absurdly awkward about this whole border checks in general, as seen by the current situation of the Dutch government providing insufficient border officials at the expanded Amsterdam terminal, and the fact that the Dutch government charges eurostar for the border controls in Amsterdam and Rotterdam, while the same border control at Schiphol airport is not charged to either the airport or the airlines (so not exactly a level playing field).

Generally, are border costs borne solely by the taxpayer, or do governments charge airports with airports then passing the costs onto airlines?

 

[Trainbike46]

Is Switzerland even remotely comparable as Amsterdam as a Channel Tunnel market?

The Netherlands is likely a bigger market than Switzerland

The biggest Swiss markets would be Zurich and Geneva, which are both an hour away from Basel. If Basel is 5.5 hours away then Zurich and Geneva will be 6.5. This is well beyond the magic threshold of 3 hours so even willingness to pay won't help much.

Why would you go via Basel if heading from London to Geneva?

There isn't a magical line where Rail/Air goes from competitive to uncompetitive. Both Amsterdam and the Scottish central belt have very significant rail mode-shares, despite being well over 3 hour travel time. Likely you couldn't obtain the same mode share on a Geneva train as you could on a Paris one, but Switzerland is one of the more likely routes, as the market is sizeable, relatively rich, and not too far away.

Generally, are border costs borne solely by the taxpayer, or do governments charge airports with airports then passing the costs onto airlines?

I believe this is country dependent, but it is very odd to charge the operator for one mode (Rail), while it is borne by the taxpayer for another mode (Air).

I'm not opposed to reasonable border costs being charged to the passenger (by charging the operator), but it should be a level playing field, so either apply that to all modes or to none at all.

 

[NCT]

The Netherlands is likely a bigger market than Switzerland

Why would you go via Basel if heading from London to Geneva?

There isn't a magical line where Rail/Air goes from competitive to uncompetitive. Both Amsterdam and the Scottish central belt have very significant rail mode-shares, despite being well over 3 hour travel time. Likely you couldn't obtain the same mode share on a Geneva train as you could on a Paris one, but Switzerland is one of the more likely routes, as the market is sizeable, relatively rich, and not too far away.

Rail still has a respectable market share at 4 hours, but well beyond? Yes Geneva via LGV Sud-Est would be 5.5 hours, but would that generate a sufficient market size to justify the cost of providing sterile platforms (glossing over whether it's practical to make any part of the platform 6/7 island sterile in the first place)?

I believe this is country dependent, but it is very odd to charge the operator for one mode (Rail), while it is borne by the taxpayer for another mode (Air).

Do we *know* that Dutch border costs are *not* charged to Schiphol?

 

[Trainbike46]

Do we *know* that Dutch border costs are *not* charged to Schiphol?

Yes, this was confirmed in either a letter from the minister or a statement from the ministry, replying to statements by Eurostar. If helpful I can try to dig it up. It will be in Dutch though.

 

[NCT]

Yes, this was confirmed in either a letter from the minister or a statement from the ministry, replying to statements by Eurostar. If helpful I can try to dig it up. It will be in Dutch though.

Thanks.

Do we know what the arrangements at St Pancras, Paris Nord, Brussels Midi and Lille Europe are?

 

[Sir Felix Pole]

Wolmar has the stats for air passengers from Heathrow (and v.v.) in his latest 'RAIL' column - reading hard copy so can't post link.

Amsterdam 3.6m, Zùrich 1.7m, Basel 0.47m, Geneva 2.2, so yes the Swiss market looks attractive if the rail times can be made acceptable.

Amsterdam will include transfer passengers; Frankfurt looks attractive at 1.7 million too, but again a big hub airport so not all conducive to rail.

 

[Krokodil]

Is Switzerland even remotely comparable as Amsterdam as a Channel Tunnel market?

I would guess that it was a smaller market than Amsterdam, but a bigger one than the trains to the South of France that Eurostar used to run. Personally I'd like to prioritise Cologne/Frankfurt as the former in particular links into many other destinations. But he who pays the piper calls the tune, so Switzerland it may be.

Where trains operated with a Lille shuffle in the past - were passengers required to take all their belongings with them off the train?

I believe so, just like at the Bulgarian/Turkish border.

Generally, are border costs borne solely by the taxpayer, or do governments charge airports with airports then passing the costs onto airlines?

It varies. I think that it was mentioned upthread that the Dutch government subsidise Schiphol but charge Eurostar.

 

[NCT]

I would guess that it was a smaller market than Amsterdam, but a bigger one than the trains to the South of France that Eurostar used to run. Personally I'd like to prioritise Cologne/Frankfurt as the former in particular links into many other destinations. But he who pays the piper calls the tune, so Switzerland it may be.

If I were a betting man my money would be on a Lille shuffle fudge.

Especially if passengers are required to take all their belongings, then a Switzerland - Brussels (via Lille) service could do quite well just as an internal Schengen service, then a through ticketing / guaranteed connection Lille shuffle onto a *different* train could then be spun as a 'tada!'.

I don't see how Cologne or Frankfurt have either the track or passenger circulation capacity for sterile platforms, so I suspect some form of shuffle is inevitable, and in this case that solution already exists at Brussels. The blocker really is ticketing as in both directions the trains that connect the best are the ICEs - towards the UK there's a ~1h15m window between ICE arrival (odd hour 35) and ES departure (even hour 52).

 

[Krokodil]

Especially if passengers are required to take all their belongings, then a Switzerland - Brussels (via Lille) service could do quite well just as an internal Schengen service, then a through ticketing / guaranteed connection Lille shuffle onto a *different* train could then be spun as a 'tada!'.

That's basically how they brought back the "Ski Train". 374 to Lille, swapping for a Thalys set south from there.

The blocker really is ticketing as in both directions the trains that connect the best are the ICEs - towards the UK there's a ~1h15m window between ICE arrival (odd hour 35) and ES departure (even hour 52).

The answer there is to run London-Brussels hourly again. But we've been over this before.

 

[NCT]

That's basically how they brought back the "Ski Train". 374 to Lille, swapping for a Thalys set south from there.


The answer there is to run London-Brussels hourly again. But we've been over this before.

Was London - Brussels hourly all day all the way up until early 2020? Hopefully more Amsterdams will fill more of the current two-hour gaps.

 

[Trainbike46]

Thanks.

I found a (Dutch) news article, which I've translated and summarised below:

Eurostar's version:
Eurostar requested an increase in Dutch border force staff at Amsterdam from 3 to 5 staff members (due to the capacity increase from 260 to 650 passengers per trains), by corresponce in June of 2024 (or December 2023 in other sources), with increased staff to start from April 2025. This is at a significantly longer timeframe than the minimum required under the agreement for the border checks, which lists the minimum timeframe as 14 days. The minister was very slow to communicate and no meeting happened until April 2025, and the request was denied for at least all of 2025, and refuses to give any certainty for 2026. Eurostar pays for the border force, and offered to increase payments to finance the extra staff.

Ministry of Asylum and Migration (responsible for border force) version:
We have always been clear about what is and isn't possible. Any delays that may occur are Eurostar's fault for selling tickets before they had confirmed in writing that extra staff would be available. Eurostar is aware of the timeframe agreed in the original agreement for expanding border force capacity.

The Ministry of Asylum's position is confirmed by this statement on the Dutch border force's website

Some relevant context for people less familiar with Dutch politics: Minister Faber is broadly perceived as highly incompetent; And the border force is currently overstretched due to a political decision to do more border checks at the borders with Belgium and Germany, with each location requiring at least 10 border force staff members. My personal experience of dealing with the Dutch government suggests that Eurostar's account is likely accurate.

Regarding the costs, the statement that Eurostar pays for the border force and Schiphol airport does not, has repeatedly been included in Dutch media (e.g., the article above, or here), and at no point has the ministry denied it in their statements in the same articles. It is not mentioned in the border force statement above either, however it does mention that the provision of border officials at Eurostar stations is not according to the legal obligation that is present at Schiphol airport, but instead under an agreement between the ministry and Eurostar. Dutch news articles have previously stated that airlines are charged for security at Schiphol, but that border force is covered by the government. Checking the official government budget, the income of the border force is so low that it can't be charging anyone other than Eurostar, with an income varying between four and eight million euros annually. Eurostar is reported to be paying in that range.

Do we know what the arrangements at St Pancras, Paris Nord, Brussels Midi and Lille Europe are?

Eurostar has stated that the situation as present in the Netherlands is unique, but I guess that doesn't help much figuring out what the situation in other countries is beyond that it is different from the Dutch one!

Was London - Brussels hourly all day all the way up until early 2020? Hopefully more Amsterdams will fill more of the current two-hour gaps.

There is plans to expand from 3 tpd currently to 5 tpd next year on London-Amsterdam, which will increase frequency for Brussels.

Through-tickets should really be sold with both the Eurostar and the ICE service though, to maximise the number of journey opportunities.

 

[IanXC]

I don't see how Cologne or Frankfurt have either the track or passenger circulation capacity for sterile platforms, so I suspect some form of shuffle is inevitable, and in this case that solution already exists at Brussels. The blocker really is ticketing as in both directions the trains that connect the best are the ICEs - towards the UK there's a ~1h15m window between ICE arrival (odd hour 35) and ES departure (even hour 52).

For Köln I've thought for a good while that Köln Messe/Deutz is the answer to where you can provide suitable platforms. Potentially makes a little bit of a mess of the segregation of traffic when there is an international train stood in the platform but I don't think that is insurmountable.

 

[Bald Rick]

If Basel is 5.5 hours away then Zurich and Geneva will be 6.5.

Geneva would be 5.5hrs. Which I think would be reasonably competitive, especially on winter weekends. My last three trips to Geneva have resulted in immigration waits of well over an hour; obviously that can be sorted, but then Eurostar tended to fill the Ski trains to the Tarentaise well enough for a 6/7 hour journey.

 

[Austriantrain]

Geneva would be 5.5hrs. Which I think would be reasonably competitive, especially on winter weekends. My last three trips to Geneva have resulted in immigration waits of well over an hour; obviously that can be sorted, but then Eurostar tended to fill the Ski trains to the Tarentaise well enough for a 6/7 hour journey.

If the trains are run or co-run by SBB, the main question is what their target market is.

If it is British travelers, I gather from the discussions here that Geneva would be the most attractive destination.

If it is the Swiss, Basel wins easily because it serves the most populated parts of Switzerland. I would think that SBB will go after the Swiss market, which they know well and has a very high affinity for Rail travel.

Since the Low Costs are not nearly as strong there it will also be easier to charge the necessary prices than with the Luton Easyjet-crowd.

 

[A S Leib]

If A is Frankfurt, Z can be Munich (or even Berlin). Basel and Milan, Lyon and Nice...

Or even Zagreb or Budapest, if there's a Zürich to London service leaving after 11:00 (or 10:00 with passport control done at Lille) and arriving in Zürich by 20:00 / 21:00, although I'd suspect that people willing to do such a long journey by train would also tend to be more willing to make more changes to begin with.

 

[TheWierdOne]

If it is British travelers, I gather from the discussions here that Geneva would be the most attractive destination.

If it is the Swiss, Basel wins easily because it serves the most populated parts of Switzerland. I would think that SBB will go after the Swiss market, which they know well and has a very high affinity for Rail travel

In this respect it may be possible for both sides to have their cake and eat it. Given that the 400m rule is definitely not in force any more, an easy solution could be to run two 200m units and couple/uncouple en route, probably at Marne-la-Vallee unless there’s somewhere closer to the place where the Basel and Geneva routes diverge.

 

[Austriantrain]

In this respect it may be possible for both sides to have their cake and eat it. Given that the 400m rule is definitely not in force any more, an easy solution could be to run two 200m units and couple/uncouple en route, probably at Marne-la-Vallee unless there’s somewhere closer to the place where the Basel and Geneva routes diverge.

Serving two stations in Switzerland enormously increases costs though (Customs and Border patrol, Security Checks).