Virgin Group explores the return of Virgin Trains as an Open Access operator

[The Planner]

I guess the volume varies over time, but at the quieter times opposite applies, still part of the job for which they get paid, and still getting paid when there are negligible applications must be an opposing upside.

Maybe the old style managers who would roll up their sleeves and get stuck in to help out when busy, and get the work done quickly are thin on ground now which is real problem.

No, there is a normal day job that the team has to deal with, this is on top. It still doesn't increase the resource significantly if the managers were added.

 

[Bald Rick]

I guess the volume varies over time, but at the quieter times opposite applies, still part of the job for which they get paid, and still getting paid when there are negligible applications must be an opposing upside.

What follows is the simple version that I hope is easily understood. In reality it is much more complex and nuanced.

There is usually a steady stream of applications - mostly renewing existing rights (often with a few variations), managed by teams in each region with an established and well understood process to follow. Plus a trickle of new rights for new services from established and open access operators. The latter twke much more time to process because they have to be assessed against a whole range of criteria, including whether they can be timetsbled (more often than not - not) and how they would affect things like power supply, performance, operational risk, maintenance regimes, etc etc. That is quite specialist work.

What happened in May last year triggered a tsunami of applications with a much higher propotion of new rights than normal. I’m not exagerrating when I say the workload for multiplied by a factor of 5-10 times overnight.

The assessment has to be scrupulously fair. But also has to take into account the potential cumulative effects of all the applications.

Maybe the old style managers who would roll up their sleeves and get stuck in to help out when busy, and get the work done quickly are thin on ground now which is real problem.

Personally I would rather the ‘old style’ managers* who roll up their sleeves and get stuck in would focus on running trains on time, rather than doing paperwork about access rights. As I say above, it’s quite specialist work.

*Wondering when I will become (or became?) an old style manager. If ever.
Although I do have a black mac and a red pen.

 

[Backroom_boy]

Reading the submission, I’m not sure Virgin have got a chance on this one.

I'm sure you're correct but I'd _never_ bet againest Virgin in court

 

[weeklycommuter]

I'm sure you're correct but I'd _never_ bet againest Virgin in court

I would not bet against a Government with a large Parliamentary majority at the start of a five year term.

 

[Doomotron]

I would not bet against a Government with a large Parliamentary majority at the start of a five year term.

I didn't realise that the cabinet was directly in charge of Network Rail diagram procedures.

 

[Snow1964]

I'm sure you're correct but I'd _never_ bet againest Virgin in court

The possibility of court does tend to focus minds though.

Instead of something tending to be in the lower priority will get through it eventually category. Suddenly jumps up to someone better pause their day job and double check nothing has been missed and all paperwork is finished to avoid any problems status.

Even if court hearing is cancelled few days before, there is some ruthless commercial logic, as it often results in queue jumping when an understaffed Department is taking long time to process applications.

 

[weeklycommuter]

I didn't realise that the cabinet was directly in charge of Network Rail diagram procedures.

With a large majority in the House of Commons the Government can change the law on open access passenger train services and already plans to do so. See post #142 for the Government's view of the Virgin open access application.

 

[Snow1964]

With a large majority in the House of Commons the Government can change the law on open access passenger train services and already plans to do so. See post #142 for the Government's view of the Virgin open access application.

yes, but busy parliamentary calendar might be such that existing applications are processed before any change of law happens.

At the moment the proposed change is like a manifesto commitment, expected but with no known timescale.

 

[weeklycommuter]

Virgin have amended the form P on their open access application as follows. The proposed Glasgow service has been cut completely.

https://www.orr.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2025-03/virgin-management-limited-s17-form-p.pdf

This application is for the operation of three new Open Access Service Groups that will provide new high quality passenger train services between London Euston and:
• Greater Manchester and Northwest (Preston via Manchester Victoria - 5 daily services Monday – Sundays, and Rochdale via Manchester Victoria – 2 daily services Monday to
Sundays),
• Liverpool Lime Street (9 daily services Monday to Sundays);
• Birmingham New Street (4 daily services Mondays to Sundays);
This is an amendment to the Form P application submitted to ORR on 17th May and in line with the guidance issued by ORR in their letter to the industry on 1st November 2024
During the period between May 2024 and December 2025, the Virgin team held several sessions with key Stakeholders including Network Rail. Stakeholder discussions centred around the Virgin application, operational routings, train servicing management, several commercial factors and the likely customer proposition. The output of these discussions were positive albeit two important points were raised. In response, Virgin has modified its application to reflect those suggested changes; ensuring we meet our Stakeholder and user needs. The key changes include the following:
• The reduction of train services in the London Euston to Birmingham New Street service group.
The current Operator is seeking to reintroduce some services between London and Birmingham New Street; consequently, these services once reintroduced should adequately serve the market requirements on this corridor. In summary, the reduction is from - 9 to 4 train services between Birmingham New Street and London Euston; and 7 to 4 between London Euston and Birmingham New Street.
• Reduction in the passenger train service slots in the Euston – Liverpool Lime Street Services Group.
This has reduced from 15 Passenger Train Slots to 9 in both directions.
• Modifications to the Rochdale/Preston – London Euston Service Group
This service group has been amended to serve Manchester Victoria instead of Manchester Piccadilly. The services will now traverse the section between Stockport (Heaton Norris Jn) and Miles Platting Junction (via Reddish South) and call at Manchester Victoria (both directions). This option moves the services away from the congested Manchester Piccadilly station area. This change was notified to all parties in Virgin’s response to industry and stakeholder representations following it’s initial consultation, copies of which were issued to ORR on 23rd August 2024 by Network Rail.
• London Euston – Glasgow
As this present time, further analysis and detailed planning is needed on the Glasgow service proposition; therefore, this service group has be withdrawn.
These train services are in direct response to the strong Stakeholder and Customer aspirations for quality and dependable train services on the West Coast Mainline (WCML); providing customers with choice, improved service frequencies and new direct connectivity.
This proposal seeks to support the Governments ‘Levelling Up’ initiative through providing new rail connectivity opportunities from several key locations in the North-West to London. These new locations include linking Bolton, Rochdale and the TfGM operated Park and Ride Station at Horwich directly to London.
Proposed commencement date: December 2025
End date: December 2035
Date approval or directions wanted by: Earliest Opportunity

 

[pokemonsuper9]

The services will now traverse the section between Stockport (Heaton Norris Jn) and Miles Platting Junction (via Reddish South) and call at Manchester Victoria (both directions).

Very interesting, maybe Northern could get rid of their 1 train per week and let Virgin take the stops instead (joke obviously but imagine).

As this present time, further analysis and detailed planning is needed on the Glasgow service proposition; therefore, this service group has be withdrawn.
These train services are in direct response to the strong Stakeholder and Customer aspirations for quality and dependable train services on the West Coast Mainline (WCML); providing customers with choice, improved service frequencies and new direct connectivity.

I imagine this makes it much more likely that Lumo or LNWR will get paths through Warrington Bank Quay then.

Updated my map: https://metrodreamin.com/view/U2JhMWozc3NaeFZ1cVRBWGptZzlBN0hsQVI1MnwzOA==

 

[cle]

Interesting that Virgin think they can get from Euston-Stockport 5 times a day. Do we know about stopping patterns?

I would think that having Watford for 5+2 Manchester calls would be a great add, and not very abstractive either.

I'm assuming the Rochdale services are via Warrington/Eccles still. I do wonder if Rochdale will ever need another platform (ostensibly Victoria expansion - much like Stalybridge) - even for 2tpd Virgin, I'm not sure where they are turning or how long they need.

 

[pokemonsuper9]

Do we know about stopping patterns?

Yes, indicative timetables are also on the document.

Service Group VT1 - London Euston and Preston /Rochdale (via Manchester Victoria)

High quality passenger train services shall operate at a frequency of 5 daily services each way Monday
– Sundays between London and Preston and 2 daily services each way between London and Rochdale.
All services will call at the following stations: Nuneaton, Stoke-on-Trent, and Stockport. Preston bound
services will then call at Manchester Victoria, Bolton, Horwich Parkway, Chorley and Preston; Rochdale
services will then call at Manchester Victoria and Rochdale

Service Group VT2 - London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street.
High quality passenger train services shall operate at a frequency of 9 daily services each way Monday
- Sundays, serving stations at: Tamworth, Lichfield Trent Valley, Runcorn, Liverpool South Parkway
and Liverpool Lime Street.

Service Group VT3 London Euston and Birmingham New Street.
High quality passenger train services shall operate at a frequency of 4 daily services Monday - Sunday,
serving stations at: Coventry and Birmingham International.

I'm assuming the Rochdale services are via Warrington/Eccles still.

That's what Lumo want to do (and LNWR just to Manchester), Virgin want to turn around at Manchester Victoria coming from Stockport.

 

[cle]

Ahh yes, thanks for sharing. So reversing at Victoria back out to Rochdale? Interesting. Feels like getting to at least Bolton would be easier but perhaps not. Or back to Euston via Eccles...!

Is there a good reason (platform length?) why Salford Crescent wouldn't be worth a call?

 

[pokemonsuper9]

Is there a good reason (platform length?) why Salford Crescent wouldn't be worth a call?

Capacity is already quite constrained there. taking up an extra minute or so probably wouldn't help.
Virgin are likely already close to revenue abstraction limits and more stops probably wouldn't help.

 

[Bald Rick]

Virgin are likely already close to revenue abstraction limits and more stops probably wouldn't help.

IMHO it will be impossible not to be primarily abstractive with those stopping patterns.

 

[pokemonsuper9]

IMHO it will be impossible not to be primarily abstractive with those stopping patterns.

Indeed, I guess the only argument they could really make is "Victoria, Rochdale, Bolton and Horwich Parkway don't have direct services to London, Stockport, Stoke and Nuneaton".

Unless they take the Lumo route and start saying it'll take away from planes or that it'll grow the industry more than it takes.

 

[Bald Rick]

Unless they take the Lumo route and start saying it'll take away from planes or that it'll grow the industry more than it takes.

It will take very little from air - almost all London -Manchester air passengers are transferring to/from Long Haul at Heathrow.

Fairly sure Manchester Vic - London is in the same revenue grouping as Picadilly - London so even Vic only Advance fares would count as abstraction.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Lumo taking from air is just because LNER is too expensive, anyway. Aside from the earlier first northbound they don't really do anything LNER doesn't, they just undercut them by 30 quid or so. They aren't even doing the low cost thing properly i.e. a low base fare with buy ups e.g. seat selection, bigger bags etc.

 

[takno]

Lumo taking from air is just because LNER is too expensive, anyway. Aside from the earlier first northbound they don't really do anything LNER doesn't, they just undercut them by 30 quid or so. They aren't even doing the low cost thing properly i.e. a low base fare with buy ups e.g. seat selection, bigger bags etc.

They also have a much later last northbound. Other things they do are have more comfortable seats, fewer stops (reducing the disturbance and worry about people stealing your bags), and a generally more focused and better-marketed budget offering. The staff are friendly and approachable - talking a lot about helping you out, and being very good at coming down the train to help you get your luggage stowed right. They also have an open ticket

LNER by comparison are not very price-competitive with air, have a bewildering array of departure times and service patterns, offer a whole range of tickets which are mostly retailed on the basis of how they are restricted and what you can't do with them, seem perhaps a bit too focused on the posh people up front, and come across as generally a good bit less friendly.

I don't pretend to know what drives other peoples decisions, but Lumo is the only thing stopping me getting the plane at the moment.

 

[Bletchleyite]

They also have a much later last northbound. Other things they do are have more comfortable seats, fewer stops (reducing the disturbance and worry about people stealing your bags), and a generally more focused and better-marketed budget offering. They also have an open ticket

LNER by comparison are not very price-competitive with air, have a bewildering array of departure times and service patterns, offer a whole range of tickets which are mostly retailed on the basis of how they are restricted and what you can't do with them, seem perhaps a bit too focused on the posh people up front, and come across as generally a good bit less friendly.

I suspect you may be younger than me - I found the Lumo service over-familiar and a bit patronising, the legroom is rubbish even if the seats are better, the interior had an air of neglect with broken armrests and tables and a fair bit of muck, and the luggage policy is ridiculous when you can't buy up to a bigger bag (which is an example of how they aren't doing the low-cost thing properly - if they were they'd offer a buy-up to a bigger bag at a suitably high price to control the numbers of them as the actual low-cost airlines do). I did use them once as a trial but won't be back, I'd fly over using Lumo, but in reality if I was paying I'd probably go via the WCML as it's cheaper than LNER and more scenic.

Back on topic and along those lines, do we know what Virgin's product is likely to be like? Are they aiming for low-cost, high-quality or both? The same feel as VT of old? Cramped like most Voyager coaches or a bit more "Coach D"? Aimed at a younger or older market, or both depending on which class?

 

[weeklycommuter]

As they have cut back the number of train services they are applying to operate on the West Coast Mainline including dropping the London to Glasgow services completely I wonder if Virgin will now cancel their open access application completely and concentrate instead on operating Cross Channel train services.

 

[Bald Rick]

Back on topic and along those lines, do we know what Virgin's product is likely to be like? Are they aiming for low-cost, high-quality or both? The same feel as VT of old? Cramped like most Voyager coaches or a bit more "Coach D"? Aimed at a younger or older market, or both depending on which class?

I’m not sure they know themselves. But then I can’t see a scenario where they get access rights anyway.

 

[Sorcerer]

Back on topic and along those lines, do we know what Virgin's product is likely to be like? Are they aiming for low-cost, high-quality or both? The same feel as VT of old? Cramped like most Voyager coaches or a bit more "Coach D"? Aimed at a younger or older market, or both depending on which class?

If their airline business is anything to go by, I can't imagine them opting for low-cost over high-quality, and even with their history as a franchise bidder they only seemed interested in the intercity market (not unique among open access operators though) for premium express services over the short to medium distance commuter routes, so it seems to me that the Virgin brand would rather build a sense of premium or pizazz rather than low-cost operations. Furthermore I'd argue their reputation on previous rail operations could give them an edge in attracting customers over new brands like Lumo, especially with displeased Avanti customers who might yearn for their return to the iron road.

 

[weeklycommuter]

If their airline business is anything to go by, I can't imagine them opting for low-cost over high-quality, and even with their history as a franchise bidder they only seemed interested in the intercity market (not unique among open access operators though) for premium express services over the short to medium distance commuter routes, so it seems to me that the Virgin brand would rather build a sense of premium or pizazz rather than low-cost operations. Furthermore I'd argue their reputation on previous rail operations could give them an edge in attracting customers over new brands like Lumo, especially with displeased Avanti customers who might yearn for their return to the iron road.

This is why I think Virgin may now abandon their open access bid to operate train services on West Coast Mainline routes and concentrate on operating Cross Channel train services in competition with Eurostar instead. This is the type of service operated by Eurostar. On the West Coast Mainline the only proposed services for which this operating model may have worked is London to Glasgow which Virgin have abandoned. Premium services do not really work anymore for train services London to the Midlands and the North of England, the journeys are too short for that and all that matters is getting a seat for an affordable fare.

 

[Doomotron]

This is why I think Virgin may now abandon their open access bid to operate train services on West Coast Mainline routes and concentrate on operating Cross Channel train services in competition with Eurostar instead. This is the type of service operated by Eurostar. On the West Coast Mainline the only proposed services for which this operating model may have worked is London to Glasgow which Virgin have abandoned. Premium services do not really work anymore for train services London to the Midlands and the North of England, the journeys are too short for that and all that matters is getting a seat for an affordable fare.

I also believe the cross channel service is far more likely to actually happen that the WCML service.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I also believe the cross channel service is far more likely to actually happen that the WCML service.

I'm inclined to think the same. With Eurostar's high prices, undercutting them but still having enough income to provide a premium style service is still viable. Whereas with WMT offering competition on the WCML (and Chiltern parallel to it) at rock bottom prices they are going to struggle to be anything other than a bargain basement operator with such an infrequent service.

 

[Doomotron]

I'm inclined to think the same. With Eurostar's high prices, undercutting them but still having enough income to provide a premium style service is still viable. Whereas with WMT offering competition on the WCML (and Chiltern parallel to it) at rock bottom prices they are going to struggle to be anything other than a bargain basement operator with such an infrequent service.

The WCML open access application comes across to me as the Virgin group still being bitter over losing the WCML franchise. I expect the business plan is quite flakey and will probably be rejected whether there's government intervention or not.

 

[Sorcerer]

I am also inclined to agree with the Cross-Channel services being more likely than the WCML Open Access ones. The WCML is practically at capacity and it will be challenging trying to squeeze in an extra train on what little extra paths exist. Meanwhile the Channel Tunnel and HS1 are relatively underutilised, and competition against Eurostar will be good for business and the environment.

I think this is where Virgin will ultimately end up turning their focus, because all else aside if there's anything that's arguably more presitigious than intercity rail travel, it's international intercity rail travel, so it would be very on brand for them to chose that one over other just by mere principle. The economics just also happen to align with it being the clearly better option.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think this is where Virgin will ultimately end up turning their focus, because all else aside if there's anything that's arguably more presitigious than intercity rail travel, it's international intercity rail travel, so it would be very on brand for them to chose that one over other just by mere principle. The economics just also happen to align with it being the clearly better option.

There are other potential benefits there too - potentially they could codeshare it with their Virgin Atlantic operation and thus get more custom for that from those flying from Paris etc.

 

[Doomotron]

I think this is where Virgin will ultimately end up turning their focus, because all else aside if there's anything that's arguably more presitigious than intercity rail travel, it's international intercity rail travel, so it would be very on brand for them to chose that one over other just by mere principle. The economics just also happen to align with it being the clearly better option.

I reckon the focus changed quite a while ago. The first time I heard anything about the latest Virgin WCML bid was on the forum, and I've found almost nothing about it in traditional media. They can't shut up about the cross-channel service, on the other hand. Virgin seem to release a press release about the service every few weeks (none of them having any worthwhile information), the media reports on the press releases, and all the Kent Facebook groups can't stop begging Virgin and Eurostar to stop and Ebbsfleet and Ashford - an absolute waste of resources, but that's for another thread.