Is the 9bn Lower Thames Road crossing approval bad news for rail?

[Cambus731]

Lower Thames Crossing plan for Essex and Kent is approved

The 14-mile (22.5km) road will link the A2 and M2 in Kent with the A13 and M25 in Essex.

www.bbc.co.uk

bad bad day for the railway. This is going to make driving between Essex and Kent more attractI’ve and undermine train travel between the two counties. If anything this should either be a new heavy rail line. Or a light railway. And combined with a cycleway

 

[stuu]

Lower Thames Crossing plan for Essex and Kent is approved

The 14-mile (22.5km) road will link the A2 and M2 in Kent with the A13 and M25 in Essex.

www.bbc.co.uk

bad bad day for the railway. This is going to make driving between Essex and Kent more attractI’ve and undermine train travel between the two counties. If anything this should either be a new heavy rail line. Or a light railway. And combined with a cycleway

How much train travel is there currently between Essex and Kent?

I can't imagine this will have any effect whatsoever on rail travel

 

[Cambus731]

How much train travel is there currently between Essex and Kent?

I can't imagine this will have any effect whatsoever on rail travel

I disagree. I know that there is some train travel between Essex and Kent. But the need to make one’s way between the two Stratford stations, or to cross London is already a bit of a disincentive. This road tunnel will make driving more attractive between the two counties. And travelling by train will become a much less attractive option

 

[brad465]

I can say with confidence the final price tag will not be 9bn, it will finish much later than planned and it won't relieve any congestion, as property and business developers will take advantage of the new capacity to offset any relief the project is supposed to provide.

 

[dosxuk]

And travelling by train will become a much less attractive option

Not really - the only people currently travelling by train between the two are basically those who can't drive or who don't have the option to drive.

 

[renegademaster]

The now defunct Tilbury ferry would probably be a lot more viable as a Tilbury Gravesend Bus. Ultimately this(along with Silverton):could be quite a gift for public transport and stop the two sides of the Thames feeling so far apart

I can say with confidence the final price tag will not be 9bn, it will finish much later than planned and it won't relieve any congestion, as property and business developers will take advantage of the new capacity to offset any relief the project is supposed to provide.

The Silverton tunnel managed to meet schedule and budget, occasionally infrastructure does go well in this country

 

[brad465]

The Silverton tunnel managed to meet schedule and budget, occasionally infrastructure does go well in this country

Is that project team transferring across, that tunnel finishing just as the LTC is starting works well for staff looking to carry on in the industry.

 

[The Planner]

Lower Thames Crossing plan for Essex and Kent is approved

The 14-mile (22.5km) road will link the A2 and M2 in Kent with the A13 and M25 in Essex.

www.bbc.co.uk

bad bad day for the railway. This is going to make driving between Essex and Kent more attractI’ve and undermine train travel between the two counties. If anything this should either be a new heavy rail line. Or a light railway. And combined with a cycleway

Why does rail have to be the only answer?

 

[brad465]

If a rail tunnel was ever feasible here, I think it would mainly be for freight; you could re-route freight from Grain/Cliffe Brett and Hoo Jct away from London, especially if it's onward destination is north of London. There's probably a case for some passenger services, but I don't know what the core flows would be, so could end up being something as simple as a Medway-Shenfield/Southend shuttle. Most long distance passengers crossing the Thames are covered by HS1, with interchange at Stratford or St Pancras/Euston/Kings X relatively easy.

 

[mike57]

9bn is the starting price not the final finished and open price, my own bet, closer to 20bn.

I think it will be used by longer distance traffic, I assume it will be tolled, so regular Kent - Essex or reverse journeys will probbably carry a financial penalty which will rule out daily commuting.

To me it will not directly affect the railways, other than by using funds which could have been used for other things, how many miles of electrification could that investment have bought.

We already have a downstream of Dartford rail crossing in the form of HS1, if you wanted to establish an Essex - Kent service this would probably be a better starting point, but I would argue that the demand would not be there, and even if it was the costs would probably still rule it out.

 

[SynthD]

Why does rail have to be the only answer?

Many major crossings built this century have road and rail. It was probably considered somewhere in those many tens of thousands of pages in the report to apply for permission.

edit: Speculation thread https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...il-tunnel-had-a-rail-tunnel-alongside.283758/

 

[Mikey C]

This crossing is desperately needed, to relieve the complete bottleneck at Dartford. Motorists have been paying tolls to cross the river there ever since the first tunnel was built, and for long after the most recent bridge was paid for, so the government has raked in lots of money down the years.

In recent years there have been 2 DLR crossings, the Jubilee Line extension (twice) and HS1 all crossing the Thames east of Tower Bridge, so it's not as if public transport has been ignored.

 

[Harpo]

The now defunct Tilbury ferry would probably be a lot more viable as a Tilbury Gravesend Bus.

I find it hugely ironic that no public funding could be found to sustain the ferry but funds can be found for this incredibly expensive project.

 

[dastocks]

This crossing is desperately needed, to relieve the complete bottleneck at Dartford. Motorists have been paying tolls to cross the river there ever since the first tunnel was built, and for long after the most recent bridge was paid for, so the government has raked in lots of money down the years.

Exactly that. This is a lot more likely to be just another revenue stream for the government because they can probably set up a design/build/finance/operate concession on the same lines as Dartford crossing. I very much doubt a rail-only crossing could work like this.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Mar 2025 ==

I find it hugely ironic that no public funding could be found to sustain the ferry but funds can be found for this incredibly expensive project.

I think it quite likely this will be funded privately.

 

[AlterEgo]

Lower Thames Crossing plan for Essex and Kent is approved

The 14-mile (22.5km) road will link the A2 and M2 in Kent with the A13 and M25 in Essex.

www.bbc.co.uk

bad bad day for the railway. This is going to make driving between Essex and Kent more attractI’ve and undermine train travel between the two counties. If anything this should either be a new heavy rail line. Or a light railway. And combined with a cycleway

This is excellent news actually. Why not suggest buses through the tunnel? Essex and Kent feel very far apart thanks to the river, and this project is well overdue.

 

[The exile]

I find it hugely ironic that no public funding could be found to sustain the ferry but funds can be found for this incredibly expensive project.

Borrowing for infrastructure capital expenditure GOOD; for day to day spending (ie subsidies) BAD. That’s the current mantra.

 

[Horizon22]

Lower Thames Crossing plan for Essex and Kent is approved

The 14-mile (22.5km) road will link the A2 and M2 in Kent with the A13 and M25 in Essex.

www.bbc.co.uk

bad bad day for the railway. This is going to make driving between Essex and Kent more attractI’ve and undermine train travel between the two counties. If anything this should either be a new heavy rail line. Or a light railway. And combined with a cycleway

The railway connections are not great really with the exception still being expensive HS2 and a walk between the two Stratford connections or use of the Elizabeth line from Abbey Wood & connections at Dartford which is probably too far in and generally a stopping service. The MP for Tunbridge Wells has indeed quoted that it shouldn't come at the expense of better rail connections.

It is a shame generally though that road infrastructure is so much more likely to get a nod - even if an extra Thames crossing is a relatively high agenda item. Some sort of bus express shuttle being provided might be good, but its fairly industrial on the Essex side.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Mar 2025 ==

This crossing is desperately needed, to relieve the complete bottleneck at Dartford. Motorists have been paying tolls to cross the river there ever since the first tunnel was built, and for long after the most recent bridge was paid for, so the government has raked in lots of money down the years.

No guaranteed that this won't be tolled either of course - in fact I would expect it may well be.

 

[The Planner]

I think it will be used by longer distance traffic, I assume it will be tolled, so regular Kent - Essex or reverse journeys will probbably carry a financial penalty which will rule out daily commuting.

Locals get to use Dartford for £20 all year.

 

[Angmering1974]

The now defunct Tilbury ferry would probably be a lot more viable as a Tilbury Gravesend Bus. Ultimately this(along with Silverton):could be quite a gift for public transport and stop the two sides of the Thames feeling so far apart

The Silverton tunnel managed to meet schedule and budget, occasionally infrastructure does go well in this country

Wikipedia says in 2012 it estimated at £600m, 2015 it was estimated at £1bn. Various media this year reports £2.2bn as the estimated final cost. £600m is about £878m adjusted for inflation. Hmmm

 

[Senex]

Won't this sort of further massive investment in London & South East infrastructure just help to grow the difference between the L&SE region and all the rest of the country. I know the arguments for "invest in success", but if we have governments that only do that, then what hope is there (other than the crumbs off the table) for the North-East, the North-West, the West ...?

 

[Mikey C]

The railway connections are not great really with the exception still being expensive HS2 and a walk between the two Stratford connections or use of the Elizabeth line from Abbey Wood & connections at Dartford which is probably too far in and generally a stopping service. The MP for Tunbridge Wells has indeed quoted that it shouldn't come at the expense of better rail connections.

It is a shame generally though that road infrastructure is so much more likely to get a nod - even if an extra Thames crossing is a relatively high agenda item. Some sort of bus express shuttle being provided might be good, but its fairly industrial on the Essex side.

This isn't being built because people in Kent and Essex desperately want more links between the 2 counties, this is for through traffic to the channel tunnel and ferries. While more rail freight through the chunnel would be good, realistically that will still be a small percentage of the traffic carried on lorries.

No guaranteed that this won't be tolled either of course - in fact I would expect it may well be.

It will be tolled. People are more accepting of tolls when they can see improvement being made for their money, whereas for the last 10-20 years, the Dartford toll has effectively been a congestion charge.

 

[Harpo]

its fairly industrial on the Essex side.

The road’s route through Essex is almost entirely rural/agricultural and to the east of anything industrial bar Thames Gateway.

 

[HSTEd]

I can't really see much of a market for freight traffic east of LOndon without a proper connection to the Channel tunnel for Chunnel shuttles, which are too big even for HS1.

Conventional freight trains through the Chunnel are rendered uneconomic by charges on the tunnel alone, let alone charges for infrastructure further north.

I don't think the passenger loadings for a train avoiding London would be able to justify the likely huge cost either.

If HS1 had been built the same size as the Chunnel, it might be different, but it wasn't and we are stuck here now.

 

[Bishopstone]

Excellent news.

Happy to pay a toll if it expedites the construction and we get a high quality stretch of road.

Hopefully the more robust approach to planning adopted by the new government will see-off the newts'n'bats mob in short order.

 

[30907]

A major problem would be designing the rail access, which would have to have a substantially gentler gradient than by road if there is to be any freight.

Then there is the question of where these services would go - apart from the Lea Valley route, which requires crossing the GE at Stratford, they would have to use the GOBLIN which isn't much of an improvement on going via the South London Line.

For passenger traffic, Medway to the Grays area strikes me as the greatest potential and might warrant an express bus. Gravesend to Grays etc would box the compass - perhaps the road toll should subsidise the (late laented) ferry?.

 

[sh24]

Road is the overwhelming majority mode for passengers and rail, and always will be. This is good as it tackles a major connectivity pinch point from Kent into areas north and East of London.

 

[deltic]

Lower Thames Crossing plan for Essex and Kent is approved

The 14-mile (22.5km) road will link the A2 and M2 in Kent with the A13 and M25 in Essex.

www.bbc.co.uk

bad bad day for the railway. This is going to make driving between Essex and Kent more attractI’ve and undermine train travel between the two counties. If anything this should either be a new heavy rail line. Or a light railway. And combined with a cycleway

In 2023/4 there were 50k trips by rail between Kent and Essex, less than the number of vehicles crossing Dartford in a day. At the very least there should be a high frequency coach service provided to allow better public transport access between the two counties.

All that has been announced is the scheme has planning permission. No funding has been allocated to actually building it and there is no agreement as to how it will be funded other than an expectation that some money will come from the private sector. Charges on LTC will be the same as at Dartford but these have not increased for over 10 years.

It will be a long time, if ever, before the scheme opens.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Mar 2025 ==

Is that project team transferring across, that tunnel finishing just as the LTC is starting works well for staff looking to carry on in the industry.

No, contracts were awarded for LTC some time ago. There is no continuity in work between the two. Tunneling work at Silvertown was completed some years ago, I dont imagine tunnelling starting at LTC for possibly 5 years.

 

[The Ham]

I can say with confidence the final price tag will not be 9bn, it will finish much later than planned and it won't relieve any congestion, as property and business developers will take advantage of the new capacity to offset any relief the project is supposed to provide.

Whilst it may relieve congestion at the Dartford Crossings, what will happen when there's an issue with the ferries/the Chunnel and there's not been the congestion at the Thames to limit traffic flows?

Likewise is there normally capacity on the M2/M20 for much more traffic? If not then that's going to need more capacity added to it.

 

[cle]

Is this that different to HS1 which links Essex (by way of Stratford) with many parts of Kent?

The further from London, the lesser the demand - and the wider the river.

I think as people have said, there is tons of connectivity between SE and E London via the various rail links added in the last 20 years.

 

[renegademaster]

How many Gravesend to Southend flows would their actually be?
If you could use the tunnel to do bus to Tilbury then Shenfield or Brentford it would probably be as useful for little cost