East-West Rail (EWR): Consultation updates [not speculation]

[Magdalia]

Hopefully this won't be a victim of the dreaded automerge!

BBC website has a report on Bicester London Road level crossing here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62qy4xvz5jo

An Oxfordshire MP has said he is making the case to government for an underpass - including for cars - under the railway in Bicester.
There are fears a planned closure of a level crossing at London Road will "cut the town in half".
East West Rail (EWR) has proposed a footbridge or underpass for pedestrians and cyclists in its place.
But Calum Miller, the Liberal Democrat MP for Bicester, said that would force traffic on to other roads that are "already congested" and would "cause some real problems".

The report also gives some details on the recently closed consultation:

EWR said it was "committed" to continuing to engage with people in Bicester as plans are developed.

A spokesperson said: "We are currently in the process of reviewing more than 6,000 responses that have received following our recent consultation.

"All of the feedback is being considered and will help to shape the next round of design which will be reviewed ahead of the statutory consultation period – which will be within the next 12 months."

The Department for Transport spokesperson said: "We recognise the strong views felt locally in Bicester, and no decisions have been taken on the future of the London Road level crossing.

"Any option needs to balance cost with the impact on the community."

Spread over the whole length of the route, 6000 responses did not strike me as a big number.

 

[zwk500]

BBC website has a report on Bicester London Road level crossing here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62qy4xvz5jo

I'd be very surprised if NR agreed to a new reduced clearance bridge under the line (which is what seems to be being suggested). I'm also interested to see how the local MP propose to fit it in.

Spread over the whole length of the route, 6000 responses did not strike me as a big number.

It's not clear if that's 6,000 responses to the consultation overall of to the issue at Bicester specifically from how that bit is phrased.

 

[fishwomp]

I'd be very surprised if NR agreed to a new reduced clearance bridge under the line (which is what seems to be being suggested). I'm also interested to see how the local MP propose to fit it in.

Could get the companies doing Botley Road works to build it, will be done in no time

 

[MarkyT]

I'd be very surprised if NR agreed to a new reduced clearance bridge under the line (which is what seems to be being suggested). I'm also interested to see how the local MP propose to fit it in.

Reduced clearance ensures there will be a bridge strike at some point. The difficulty going for standard clearance is the depth, length of ramps etc. There may be unknown utility pipes etc down there that could disrupt construction, and an alignment suitable for general traffic has less wiggle room for deviation in such cases, see recent work at Oxford for example. There are public bus services over the crossing. If they were diverted via another route they might not be able to serve the station. Also cars are getting taller and wider inexorably. Just how big would a 'car only' tunnel actually need to be to be future proofed.?

 

[zwk500]

Reduced clearance ensures there will be a bridge strike at some point. The difficulty going for standard clearance is the depth, length of ramps etc. There may be unknown utility pipes etc down there that could disrupt construction, and an alignment suitable for general traffic has less wiggle room for deviation in such cases, see recent work at Oxford for example. There are public bus services over the crossing. If they were diverted via another route they might not be able to serve the station. Also cars are getting taller and wider inexorably. Just how big would a 'car only' tunnel actually need to be to be future proofed.?

All excellent points. Even a pedestrian and cycle only tunnel would be difficult enough to fit in.

 

[Cantab26]

Spread over the whole length of the route, 6000 responses did not strike me as a big number.

It's not clear if that's 6,000 responses to the consultation overall of to the issue at Bicester specifically from how that bit is phrased.

It’s 6,000 response across the whole route from Oxford to Cambridge (and further afield).

For a consultation of this sort, scale and scope that is a relatively high response rate and more than you would typically expect to receive.

 

[John R]

Whilst waiting at Bicester Village yesterday I was struck by how long it took from the barriers falling to the train from Marylebone passing them. It felt like it was at least three minutes. I wonder whether there is any option that reduces the time as it certainly felt excessive.

 

[Magdalia]

It’s 6,000 response across the whole route from Oxford to Cambridge (and further afield).

For a consultation of this sort, scale and scope that is a relatively high response rate and more than you would typically expect to receive.

Thanks for that.

As it happens, I have recently been looking at the history of the Cambridge South East Transport (CSET) consultations. One of those got almost 2000 responses and another almost 1500, and that's for a busway just a few miles long.

Hopefully the higher than anticipated number of responses for EWR won't impact on the future timetable.

 

[JKF]

Plenty of sharp elbows around that part of the world so not surprised that you’d get a high number of responses. See also HS2 being forced into tunnels to keep the baying mob away.

 

[MadCommuter]

The other issue with a bridge under the railway in an otherwise flat location is the requirement for pumps to remove rainwater. Those then need maintaining and if they fail, it's a big pond.

 

[MatthewHutton]

Thanks for that.

As it happens, I have recently been looking at the history of the Cambridge South East Transport (CSET) consultations. One of those got almost 2000 responses and another almost 1500, and that's for a busway just a few miles long.

Hopefully the higher than anticipated number of responses for EWR won't impact on the future timetable.

If it takes 2 hours to read each one and your workers are 80% efficient (i.e they spend 80% of their time on direct project work and 20% on other work - which for relatively junior staff should be possible) then it would take a team of 9 less than a year to read them all - and a team of 17 less than half a year to read them.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Feb 2025 ==

Plenty of sharp elbows around that part of the world so not surprised that you’d get a high number of responses. See also HS2 being forced into tunnels to keep the baying mob away.

The HS2 project should have had more stops like every other high speed rail project in the world would have done and then there would be less opposition.

Also there’s definitely plenty of working class non sharp elbowed opposition to HS2 as well from people who live near the route.

 

[swt_passenger]

If it takes 2 hours to read each one and your workers are 80% efficient (i.e they spend 80% of their time on direct project work and 20% on other work - which for relatively junior staff should be possible) then it would take a team of 9 less than a year to read them all - and a team of 17 less than half a year to read them.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Feb 2025 ==

Hopefully they’ll use their IT to check for duplicates, where people have just signed what somebody else handed them…

 

[12LDA28C]

Hopefully this won't be a victim of the dreaded automerge!

BBC website has a report on Bicester London Road level crossing here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62qy4xvz5jo



The report also gives some details on the recently closed consultation:



Spread over the whole length of the route, 6000 responses did not strike me as a big number.

How odd. The very same MP claimed on 12th December that the obstacles to providing a crossing (either bridge or tunnel) at this location were 'insurmountable' but apparently he's now changed his mind.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Feb 2025 ==

Whilst waiting at Bicester Village yesterday I was struck by how long it took from the barriers falling to the train from Marylebone passing them. It felt like it was at least three minutes. I wonder whether there is any option that reduces the time as it certainly felt excessive.

That's because the route is set all the way from well south of Bicester South Junction all the way to Bicester Village station (and beyond) and it takes that long for the Oxford-bound train to travel that distance. An additional signal was installed a few years ago to protect the crossing with the sole purpose of allowing the barriers to be raised for longer but it's made no difference.

 

[MatthewHutton]

Hopefully they’ll use their IT to check for duplicates, where people have just signed what somebody else handed them…

I honestly doubt that happens much.

The bigger barrier is that I suspect the staff aren't able to spend only 20% of their time on organisational bureaucracy.

 

[edwin_m]

The HS2 project should have had more stops like every other high speed rail project in the world would have done and then there would be less opposition.

HS2 was specifically routed away from built-up areas to reduce the impact on them. Unfortunately, even in the relatively less densely populated parts of the country, there are plenty of NIMBYs available.

More stops would mean one or more of three things:

• Diverting the route into more built-up areas, with much greater impact on properties.
• Building enough new housing around the station to create enough demand to justify it. That would be a new city about the size of MK. Or perhaps a relatively unpopulated area would be a place to put a Heathrow replacement? Can't see the locals liking that.
• Building something like the French "Beetroot stations" in the middle of nowhere with no surrounding development. Some people would be able to drive to these, but that creates traffic. Distances on HS2 are short enough that most people would have little time benefit over just using the existing rail links to London or Birmingham, and meanwhile city to city journeys would be slowed down for the benefit of a small number of intermediate passengers. Worth noting that the beetroot stations have only a few train calls per day.

The benefit to the Chilterns area is actually from EWR not HS2. They have gained service to Oxford and MK, but unfortunately they have missed out on the Aylesbury service that would provide still more connectivity.

 

[Magdalia]

If it takes 2 hours to read each one and your workers are 80% efficient (i.e they spend 80% of their time on direct project work and 20% on other work - which for relatively junior staff should be possible) then it would take a team of 9 less than a year to read them all - and a team of 17 less than half a year to read them.

There will be resources allocated for processing the consultation response.

I kept a copy of the paper consultation form. It has 24 questions, though questions 1-4 and 23-24 are administrative data.

Questions 5-22 are substantive, 18 in total. I would hope that EWR have a bit of IT trickery so that, for each of those 18 questions, all of the responses are analysed together by the same person. Some questions will have a lot more responses than others.

Hopefully they’ll use their IT to check for duplicates, where people have just signed what somebody else handed them…

Analysing responses by question not by respondent will make this obvious.

 

[12LDA28C]

HS2 was specifically routed away from built-up areas to reduce the impact on them. Unfortunately, even in the relatively less densely populated parts of the country, there are plenty of NIMBYs available.

More stops would mean one or more of three things:

• Diverting the route into more built-up areas, with much greater impact on properties.
• Building enough new housing around the station to create enough demand to justify it. That would be a new city about the size of MK. Or perhaps a relatively unpopulated area would be a place to put a Heathrow replacement? Can't see the locals liking that.
• Building something like the French "Beetroot stations" in the middle of nowhere with no surrounding development. Some people would be able to drive to these, but that creates traffic. Distances on HS2 are short enough that most people would have little time benefit over just using the existing rail links to London or Birmingham, and meanwhile city to city journeys would be slowed down for the benefit of a small number of intermediate passengers. Worth noting that the beetroot stations have only a few train calls per day.

The benefit to the Chilterns area is actually from EWR not HS2. They have gained service to Oxford and MK, but unfortunately they have missed out on the Aylesbury service that would provide still more connectivity.

Missed out? No, simply deferred and it will just happen later than initially envisaged. You must remember that no Aylesbury link can even be considered until the line is relayed from Quainton to Claydon which is not due to be completed for a few years yet.

 

[bspahh]

There will be resources allocated for processing the consultation response.

I kept a copy of the paper consultation form. It has 24 questions, though questions 1-4 and 23-24 are administrative data.

Questions 5-22 are substantive, 18 in total. I would hope that EWR have a bit of IT trickery so that, for each of those 18 questions, all of the responses are analysed together by the same person. Some questions will have a lot more responses than others.


Analysing responses by question not by respondent will make this obvious.

My first summer job after leaving school in 1986 was coding the replies from this SCELI survey
https://doc.ukdataservice.ac.uk/doc/2798/mrdoc/UKDA/UKDA_Study_2798_Information.htm
There were 6000 replies, each of which was about 100 pages. There was a room with about 15 school leavers. The slow bit was to go through the job histories, turning a text description of a job title and the employer into code numbers, and adding post codes to addresses. There was also be a tick list of keywords that summarised a free text response. After a month of doing that, I volunteered to spend a day putting 6000 sheets of paper into numerical order. The IT was 2 people typing these codes onto punch cards.

For this consultation, hardly anyone is going to fill in the full survey. They are just going to answer the questions about their local area. I suspect that of those replies, many will be pretty simple to annotate.

 

[LUYMun]

The HS2 project should have had more stops like every other high speed rail project in the world would have done and then there would be less opposition.

That defeats the purpose of diverting intercity services onto their own dedicated line.

 

[fishwomp]

That defeats the purpose of diverting intercity services onto their own dedicated line.

The purpose was capacity.. not speed.

 

[zwk500]

The purpose was capacity.. not speed.

and if you stop everywhere, the capacity for longer-distance passengers decreases...

 

[Cantab26]

If it takes 2 hours to read each one and your workers are 80% efficient (i.e they spend 80% of their time on direct project work and 20% on other work - which for relatively junior staff should be possible) then it would take a team of 9 less than a year to read them all - and a team of 17 less than half a year to read them.

There will be resources allocated for processing the consultation response.

I kept a copy of the paper consultation form. It has 24 questions, though questions 1-4 and 23-24 are administrative data.

Questions 5-22 are substantive, 18 in total. I would hope that EWR have a bit of IT trickery so that, for each of those 18 questions, all of the responses are analysed together by the same person. Some questions will have a lot more responses than others.

This is not generally how consultation responses are analysed or taken into account (unless there is only a very small volume).

@bspahh has given a good summary of the process, although things have moved on slightly from punch cards!

Hopefully they’ll use their IT to check for duplicates, where people have just signed what somebody else handed them…

Yes, duplicate text is identified as part of the initial data analysis.

Analysing responses by question not by respondent will make this obvious.

Unless something has changed radically, the consolidated consultation feedback will be analysed thematically and not question by question.

 

[MatthewHutton]

That defeats the purpose of diverting intercity services onto their own dedicated line.

I believe the Shinkansen, TGV, Taiwan HSR and KTX are all successful at diverting intercity services onto a dedicated line. But all have some slower services that call at medium sized places along the way at regular intervals.

If this had been got right then I am sure East West rail would be less controversial.

HS2 was specifically routed away from built-up areas to reduce the impact on them. Unfortunately, even in the relatively less densely populated parts of the country, there are plenty of NIMBYs available.

It goes like literally within 1km of Aylesbury a town of 95000 in its urban area.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Feb 2025 ==

and if you stop everywhere, the capacity for longer-distance passengers decreases...

The other option is to build a second line for the East of the country with Kings Cross as the terminal and then you don't have to worry so much.

Again every other country with a successful high speed rail network aside from Taiwan has more than one line going from its capital city.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Feb 2025 ==

This is not generally how consultation responses are analysed or taken into account (unless there is only a very small volume).

OK so the analysis should be quicker and cheaper than I am suggesting.

 

[edwin_m]

It goes like literally within 1km of Aylesbury a town of 95000 in its urban area.

It's still taking a relatively unpopulated route compared to where else it could have gone.

The other stations serve cities of more than a million. How much would you like to expand Aylesbury by to justify a station?

Again every other country with a successful high speed rail network aside from Taiwan has more than one line going from its capital city.

HS1?

 

[Magdalia]

Unless something has changed radically, the consolidated consultation feedback will be analysed thematically and not question by question.

The questions on the feedback form are grouped as follows:

5-6 Oxford-Bletchley
8-11 Fenny Stratford-Kempston
12 Bedford
13 Clapham Green-Colesden
14-15 Roxton-St Neots
16 Croxton-Toft
17-20 Comberton-Shelford
21 Cambridge
22 route wide

If those are the themes then we are talking basically the same thing. If the questions are grouped in a different way then we are still talking basically the same thing. The important point is that the analysis is not by respondent.

For this consultation, hardly anyone is going to fill in the full survey. They are just going to answer the questions about their local area. I suspect that of those replies, many will be pretty simple to annotate.

Indeed, for example I wouldn't have even considered responding on questions 5-16.

things have moved on slightly from punch cards!

That's what I meant by a bit of IT trickery!

(I am old enough to have had nightmare experiences with punch cards)

 

[Trainbike46]

If it takes 2 hours to read each one and your workers are 80% efficient (i.e they spend 80% of their time on direct project work and 20% on other work - which for relatively junior staff should be possible) then it would take a team of 9 less than a year to read them all - and a team of 17 less than half a year to read them.

I suspect the responses will not take 2 hours on average. My response left lots of questions, mostly about local issues, blank, and I suspect there will be lots of people who responded about how it impacts their local area, but left questions about other areas blank. Not everyone responds in as much detail as some people here likely will have!

 

[Cantab26]

The questions on the feedback form are grouped as follows:

5-6 Oxford-Bletchley
8-11 Fenny Stratford-Kempston
12 Bedford
13 Clapham Green-Colesden
14-15 Roxton-St Neots
16 Croxton-Toft
17-20 Comberton-Shelford
21 Cambridge
22 route wide

If those are the themes then we are talking basically the same thing. If the questions are grouped in a different way then we are still talking basically the same thing. The important point is that the analysis is not by respondent.

We are not talking about the same thing at all.

The consultation feedback analysis will normally be dealt with thematically (e.g. ‘trees’, ‘flooding’ and so on) and not by question or group of questions.

Some analysis will also be done on a respondent by respondent basis too.

 

[PrincesWinsdor]

What will happen of the calvert waste depot once HS2 is completed?Will it be relocated or waste will be transported by road?

 

[swt_passenger]

What will happen of the calvert waste depot once HS2 is completed?Will it be relocated or waste will be transported by road?

Nothing will happen to the plant, the waste handling sidings will end up on the east side of the HS2 line, accessed via the reinstated but repositioned Aylesbury to Clayton single line.

But this is already agreed in accordance with a TWA Order published in 2018, and presumably not subject to this consultation?

 

[12LDA28C]

What will happen of the calvert waste depot once HS2 is completed?Will it be relocated or waste will be transported by road?

As above, there are detailed plans for new sidings at the Greatmoor waste facility on the Up side of the Claydon single line which will include a Goods Loop and Reception Siding as well as two Container Sidings and two Spoil Sidings. It will be at least 2027 before these facilities are in place and transport of waste by rail can recommence, however.