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Elizabeth line - ASLEF Strikes (now resolved)

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Ghostbus

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The Elizabeth line has comfortably exceeded all revenue forecasts, and that’s without considering the wider economic contribution it makes, so it’s clear that telling the staff “there’s no money” isn’t going to wash. This is also why it’s imperative that the dispute is resolved, as the outages will come with a cost to the wider economy which is far excess of any small increase in the pay award.
I was under the impression all new money in London in recent years was drawn down from the TfL strategic reserve (as a less controversial alternative than raising fares/commercial revenues or cutting services). So not really new money. New as in Gordon Brown has sold all the gold new.
From the perspective of travelers and tourists, we feel that we can no longer ever assume that the Elizabeth Line will actually be running on the days we would need it, so it might as well not exist when it comes to travel planning and decision-making. It's not the only factor when making travel decisions, obviously, but it can tip the scales. I do avoid traveling to airports that have poor public transit connections, as do many travelers, if we have the option of going elsewhere. So, the overall economy of the UK will be negatively impacted by the strike in ways that aren't directly measurable.
That's the whole point of the strike. It's supposed to disrupt those who have absolutely no say in the matter. Every man and his dog knows the strike will be suspended at extremely short notice to allow for further talks. Which will always be the case unless or until Labour changes their approach.

Because the unions don't seem the least bit concerned about the wider risk to the Labour project, such as Reform curious voters concluding Labour's first term was a failure and it's time for a change. Moderates seeking a new direction, anxiety riddled young people seeking a strongman.
People get hung up on "4 day week" a lot, but that's compressed hours into a small number of days, hence longer shifts than your average 35-36hr worker. So swings and roundabouts.
In manufacturing it's quite common to have almost a five day week compressed into three shifts, usually across a weekend, often as a permanent arrangement.

It works for both sides and fits worker's needs (and expectations) in the modern world - childcare, fair pay, respect, career paths. It works so well that grown men (and women) are even trusted to arrange their own lives between peers, without interference from union reps or managers.
 
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manmikey

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From a traveler's point of view:

Even when offered a large pay raise, then reject it and always demand more. More more more. It has gotten out of control, frankly.
I've been a driver for 20 years and I've never been offered a "large pay rise" never mind rejecting one. Pay rises are typically just on or over inflation, if they are a bit more then that is because of some productivity agreement.

The 14.8% 3 year pay rise last year was well below inflation for the three years it covered so was in fact a pay cut, but we accepted it, didn't demand more and more as you state did we? And for most drivers it was actually 5 years since the previous pay increase in 2019.

Please remind me of a large pay rise that has been rejected?
 
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NSEWonderer

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According to the London Mayor/TFL, they want the dispute to be resolved. The incumbent MTR are the ones being difficult. Surely If TFL are encouraging both Aslef and MTR resolve their issues then MTR will not have any legal issues with GTS during the handover, If Aslef historical T/C are accepted between both parties.
Tfl are the ones that MTR end up going to however to approve any deal so surely they should be the ones to sort the deal? MTR know they're on the way out, there's nothing really pushing them to sort it.
 

mikeb42

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You have been very unlucky. Counter factual - I have travelled to / from Heathrow by the Elizabeth Line 6 times in the last two years, and it’s all been fine.

Yes, the probability of randomly timing infrequent trips to the UK to coincide exactly with strike dates among the last x years of industrial action was low so they've been unfortunate in that regard.

However, the counter-factual to your counter-factual comes from asking anyone who uses the western side of the Elizabeth line 100+ times a year about their experiences. Part of the problem is that it seems to be very all-or-nothing and a lot of the issues stem from the woefully unreliable infrastructure on the Great Western MainLine.

When the chewing gum (and wet string for the electronics) that appear to have been used to cobble the GWML infrastructure together decide to work for more than half an hour, it's not too bad. Or it wasn't, until the Railway Disease of every group of staff being in some sort of perpetual industrial dispute about every detail of every thing, always, spread to it.

Presumably the excuse for the "service" degenerating into a shambles of random mass cancellations in the evenings over the last month (RecentTrainTimes showing mass but random evening cancellations) is down to this? That's basically made it useless for anyone relying on it to get out of London in a timely and organised fashion in an evening. At least a proper strike means you've got plenty of notice that it's useless on a given day, so that's something to look forward to...

I suppose it was pretty much giving the finger to the natural laws of the universe to have one sole railway line somewhere in the UK that, in the core section at least, you could essentially rely on to do what it said it was going to.

So a big well done to everyone involved for rectifying that. The rest of us will just stoically get on with hosing money in your direction as usual.
 
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baz962

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It's true of any rostered work in any industry. You might do 12h / 8h / 6h shifts or a mix of all of them and all have their pros and cons. It is worse if it involves more extreme shifts (more nights, very early starts and late finishes etc.) as on your days off you are likely to feel less 'rested' but nobody is "working less" unless their actual annualised hours or hr/week are substantially different.

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And other grades are already in dispute or have only just avoided them after concessions were made.
Driven for two TOCs now and rarely get close to the full 35 . If you are then let me know the toc so I can avoid it :D
 

officewalla

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Not quite as simple as that, as the railway also generates its own revenue from ticket sales, and its output is measured in economic contribution rather than purely financial “profit”.

In terms of this specific dispute, the sort-of-nationalisation of the wider network doesn’t really affect TfL, which is continuing its sort-of-nationalised concession model that has operated for many years now, and is roughly analogous to the National Rail Contracts the remaining TOCs are currently operating under.

The Elizabeth line has comfortably exceeded all revenue forecasts, and that’s without considering the wider economic contribution it makes, so it’s clear that telling the staff “there’s no money” isn’t going to wash. This is also why it’s imperative that the dispute is resolved, as the outages will come with a cost to the wider economy which is far excess of any small increase in the pay award.

I remain optimistic that a solution will be reached.
And one major reason that passenger numbers and revenues have increased is the fact that the EL has a near monopoly on the relief lines into Paddington after Slough.
 

Horizon22

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The irony?

I'll be arriving at Heathrow on February 27, then departing from Heathrow on March 10th. So on BOTH DAYS the Elizabeth Line won't be running due to the strike. So all my arrangements and planning were for nothing. As usual.

Why "as usual"? Because this is the third trip in a row where I have made similar arrangements, and on all three trips, the Elizabeth Line wasn't running or had huge delays on the days I needed to use it. On my previous trip, got to the E Line stop at Heathrow only to learn trains weren't running due to some technical issue, and on the trip before that there was also a strike on the day I arrived and massive delays for some unknown reason on departure day, causing me to have to rush to the airport by other slower and more roundabout routes. Now, on this trip, thanks to my "clever" planning, I'm staying somewhere particularly inconvenient for transit from and to Heathrow, due to the strike.

Then you have been very, very unlucky.

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According to the London Mayor/TFL, they want the dispute to be resolved. The incumbent MTR are the ones being difficult. Surely If TFL are encouraging both Aslef and MTR resolve their issues then MTR will not have any legal issues with GTS during the handover, If Aslef historical T/C are accepted between both parties.

That isn't the way MTR seems to see it, apparently. "Encouraging resolution" just means "we'd rather not deal with this" which is rather dishonest from TfL it would seem. In 10 years of the current concession there has not been a driver strike.


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Yes, the probability of randomly timing infrequent trips to the UK to coincide exactly with strike dates among the last x years of industrial action was low so they've been unfortunate in that regard.

However, the counter-factual to your counter-factual comes from asking anyone who uses the western side of the Elizabeth line 100+ times a year about their experiences. Part of the problem is that it seems to be very all-or-nothing and a lot of the issues stem from the woefully unreliable infrastructure on the Great Western MainLine.

When the chewing gum (and wet string for the electronics) that appear to have been used to cobble the GWML infrastructure together decide to work for more than half an hour, it's not too bad. Or it wasn't, until the Railway Disease of every group of staff being in some sort of perpetual industrial dispute about every detail of every thing, always, spread to it.

Sure, but ultimately that has very little to do with ASLEF, MTR, TfL or indeed, this thread. The all of nothing nature is a result of contingency plans to reduce the service on the GWML and run those affected services Paddington - Abbey Wood only.

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And one major reason that passenger numbers and revenues have increased is the fact that the EL has a near monopoly on the relief lines into Paddington after Slough.

Eh? GWR/FGW had a monopoly on those lines for decades and numbers have not risen in the same manner so not sure that argument holds. The lowest area of passenger growth of the line has been outer Thames Valley (beyond West Drayton) anyway.
 
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officewalla

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Then you have been very, very unlucky.

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That isn't the way MTR seems to see it, apparently. "Encouraging resolution" just means "we'd rather not deal with this" which is rather dishonest from TfL it would seem. In 10 years of the current concession there has not been a driver strike.


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Sure, but ultimately that has very little to do with ASLEF, MTR, TfL or indeed, this thread. The all of nothing nature is a result of contingency plans to reduce the service on the GWML and run those affected services Paddington - Abbey Wood only.

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Eh? GWR/FGW had a monopoly on those lines for decades and numbers have not risen in the same manner so not sure that argument holds. The lowest area of passenger growth of the line has been outer Thames Valley (beyond West Drayton) anyway.
My point exactly. The passengers were always there regardless of the carrier so it is bending the truth to fit a narrative that the EL has exceeded expectations and carrying large numbers of extra passengers.
 

Horizon22

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My point exactly. The passengers were always there regardless of the carrier so it is bending the truth to fit a narrative that the EL has exceeded expectations and carrying large numbers of extra passengers.

Why not? Nobody is suggesting there aren't the same passengers, but more there has been a substantial rise on top of the already existing passenger base and this is data that has been proven in ridership numbers and station entries/exits.

GWR were running 3 car Turbos on the line only a decade ago and Acton Main Line didn't have a Sunday service (although often doesn't now for HS2 works but that's a different story) which shows you the huge transformation in a relatively short period.
 

BigBus

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27th February Lizzy line…

East
6 trains per hour from 7am to 7pm
Stations will be closed:
  • Maryland
  • Forest Gate
  • Manor Park
  • Goodmayes

Central Operating Section (COS):
No service

West:
No service

 

Horizon22

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A reduced 6tph in core hours is planned Liverpool Street - Shenfield with some stations closed on Friday 27th.

Nothing on the GWML or Paddington - Abbey Wood it seems.
 

Colinizer

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1) The last pay award was not negotiated in good faith and ASLEF were sold short by MTR & TFL because the Mayor found change down the back of the sofa prior to elections for LU and ARL.

2) MTR didn’t negotiate, they dictated this pay award based on what TFL told them they could say.

3) MTR and TFL have found extra cash to pay strike breakers £4000 for they’re availability and £500 per additional shift worked to clobber together something on the East.

4) GTS want nothing todo with the situation, it’s MTRs problem. (Come TUPE they won’t be saying that)

5) Andy Lord at TFL refuses find the money to create an equitable deal on fear of causing a run on pay % this year.

It’s in TFLs ability to sort the situation out.
 
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BigBus

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Can GTS refuse to take over the Elizabeth Line while a dispute is ongoing? And if the handover does take place, I won’t be surprised If Aslef strikes on the 1st week of the takeover.
 

Colinizer

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Can GTS refuse to take over the Elizabeth Line while a dispute is ongoing? And if the handover does take place, I won’t be surprised If Aslef strikes on the 1st week of the takeover.

GTS are in mobilisation, there’s no sign of them pressing pause. There’s only roughly 94 days until operations, they’ve got load to do.

Let’s hope it gets “amicably” resolved by TFL allowing the operator freedom.
 
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NSEWonderer

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Was going to say I heard rumors about this today at work. The extra two days are still on the cards I assume if the Revised offer isn't accepted.
 

Horizon22

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There's been a reported offer of an increase in the RDW rate for drivers, which would resolve the secondary issue of a RDW ban since December.
 

boiledbeans2

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27th February Lizzy line…

East
6 trains per hour from 7am to 7pm
Stations will be closed:
  • Maryland
  • Forest Gate
  • Manor Park
  • Goodmayes

Central Operating Section (COS):
No service

West:
No service


I know the strike isn't going ahead but I find the above interesting. No service in the COS is understandable as there are LU alternatives.

But why did they decide to run trains only on the East but not West section? Does the East section make more money as the trains are all rammed in the peaks? The Heathrow trains (more expensive due to "special fares") are usually rammed full of luggage, but not people.
 

Horizon22

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I know the strike isn't going ahead but I find the above interesting. No service in the COS is understandable as there are LU alternatives.

But why did they decide to run trains only on the East but not West section? Does the East section make more money as the trains are all rammed in the peaks? The Heathrow trains (more expensive due to "special fares") are usually rammed full of luggage, but not people.

Driver availability would be the main component - being staffed by driver managers that know the GEML and actually how many you'd be able to resource over a 12h period for 6tph.

Heathrow has alternatives.
 

rob.rjt

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Heathrow has alternatives.
Heathrow may, but the stations solely served by the Elizabeth line out to Reading don't. It's the same with other disruption - they arrange ticket acceptance on London buses, but nothing further out.
 

Purple Train

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Heathrow may, but the stations solely served by the Elizabeth line out to Reading don't. It's the same with other disruption - they arrange ticket acceptance on London buses, but nothing further out.
On a functioning railway system, maybe some GWR services would make extra stops, or some other form of transport would be laid on, or something would be done for people out in the sticks, but according to TfL the world stops at West Drayton. There is no better feeling than waiting at Slough for two hours for a westbound train, because all the Elizabeth Line services are cancelled and none of the fast GWR ones are stopping, knowing that the only place you can get to with your ticket on public transport is Hounslow on the 81 bus. Thankfully, I've only been in that position a couple of times - it's much more reliable than it was!

I'm very pleased that the strike has been called off for the first two dates - good work to all responsible :)
 
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