I think Hulleys have a difficult balance to strike here. Factor everything in and you get to the point where the service isn't viable to run commercially. They seem to hope only some of the problems will arise, and on the days when lots of things go awry they struggle to cope, especially as they've now got rid of the spare capacity they had previously.I have to disagree slightly. When writing timetables, and I've written many, you factor for 'reasonable expectations'.
The 80 was an example of this - several sets of long term roadworks in succession stretched the timetable beyond what it could cope with when you add in bad traffic in Chesterfield. Had those roadworks been better planned, or if contractors had an incentive to get works done quickly then the timetable would have been more workable. Of course you can argue they should have capacity to allow an extra bus to be deployed to a route when such happens, but that makes everything less commercially viable as you've got the same (or potentially less) income on the disrupted route, but higher costs.
The impression I got was that
The M-F timetable seems to have enough padding that a delay on one section can be recovered on another. Saturdays I'd agree with you, but short of dropping another service on Saturday there isn't much they can do to add extra padding. Not to excuse it, but the X17 is often a complete basket case on a Saturday, but I don't see people have as much of a pop at Stagecoach over that as they do at Hulleys, and Stagecoach should have much more resources to allow for the inevitable traffic over what is a very long route.For example, on one route a town had a market day every Wednesday and every other Friday. No traffic the rest of the time, but on market days it was crackers. We did 3 or 4 timing runs (I'm that old this is pre-Google maps!) on a market day and from that worked out our Monday to Friday timetable, as it wasn't practical to have a Wednesdays and every other Friday timetable! The result being on most market days the service ran to time, on exceptional traffic days it ran a bit late, and on non-Market days the bus waited for around 5 mins at the timing point in the town and took it steady to ensure on time departures from the next timing points.
We did it that way to demonstrate to the TC that we had factored in reasonable expectations, and whilst there may be delays on odd days we could justify them as being abnormal.
Ignoring the Breezer debarkle totally, I'm afraid I don't see the above been applied in Hulleys timetables. Look at the 55 and 170. The 55 has the same departure, arrival and intermediate times between Calow and Alfreron from 0857 to 1857, and vice versa from 0630 to 1530. I don't drive through Chesterfield that often, but when I do at peak times there's always congestion. These times imply the same congestion is present at 0830 as it is at 1230 and 1630 which I struggle to believe.
The 170 timetable likewise runs to the same times between approx 0700 and 1800, and the Saturday running times are the same as the Monday to Friday times. From my experience traffic around Baslow, Chatsworth and Bakewell is worse on a Saturday than during the week.
Many of the short notice changes have come in due to new services or significantly altered services having problems. Yes, it shows planning could have been better, but surely it's pragmatic to attempt to address these issues quickly and get passengers on-side rather than force a situation to drag on to the point where everyone will have given up and the service get cancelled as it's not viable.I'm afraid it appears to be normal business for Hulley’s to ask for such pragmatism and discretion for issues that could have been forsee. The Breezer timetable farse, entirely the Operators fault and my 7 year old great Nephew could have told them was farcical and totally unachievable. Changed under short notice. The dropping of the commercial section of the 55 between Alfreton and the Designer Outlet done under short notice. The cancellation of all bar 2 trips on the commercially operated service 6 done under short notice and resulting in DCC having to quickly find another Operator to provide a (very) partial replacement. The latter 2 changes we're told were to either stem commercial losses and/or allow some vehicles to leave the fleet and/or to match driver availability to duties.
The 6 and 55 changes seem to be Hulleys attempt to put themselves on a stronger footing going forward as they realised they'd over-stretched. Again, not ideal but surely more pragmatic than forcing them to run empty buses for 6 weeks. And hopefully a positive sign going forwards that they recognise they can't carry on the way they have been in the last few years.
As you don't know the area, you maybe won't know that what Stagecoach are now running to replace the 6 was originally a Hulleys idea when they ran the 48. The area served will never attract many passengers - it's through very well off villages where car ownership is very high and population density low. I've been told it's never attracted more than 1 or 2 passengers a day no matter how frequent the service, but there is someone with connections to the council who causes trouble whenever the service is threatened.
It's essentially a poisoned chalice to any operator who gets it, and being subsidised it probably the best option as it hamstrings any commercial service.
It's not about losses not having an impact, it's about being able to sustain those losses. Hulleys are a small operator owned by one person who used to be a driver for the same company. A large group can make a commercial decision to get out of an area and sustain the loss in doing so cleanly. A small operator is looking for any saving they can to stay afloat and needs to innovate to find gaps in the market they can profit from. There is always the sword of Damocles hanging over them - Stagecoach could decide to start a Chesterfield to Bakewell service tomorrow and take their main market from under them.Compare that to Arriva Yorkshire...
This is why I think in the bus industry, just like in almost any other industry, you need the same framework to ensure the safety of customers and staff, but more flexibility to allow a small operator to survive. If not then they will all disappear, and along with them many rural and niche services.
The big bus groups have the lucrative routes tied up. There is no way a small operator can get a cut of a commercial urban route as they've just get run off the road. There is no way for a smaller operator to get involved in most franchising, as the favoured schemes seem to be large parcels of services based on what's happened with the Bee Network and is likely to happen elsewhere. They fill a gap, and forcing the same costs on them without the same ability to generate revenue is very likely to cause that gap to be vacated.