UK switching to electric vehicles discussion

[LucyP]

For all the people criticising Toyota, you do realise that it has 15% of the car market in Africa as a whole and over 24% in South Africa, as just two examples of markets where BEVs are irrelevant. Toyota will sell to areas where there is hardly any running water or electricity, let alone a car-park full of fast chargers. At present only 1% of its worldwide sales are BEVs.

The list of manufacturers who have abandoned their BEV targets grows longer by the day.

BMW are promising a production fuel cell vehicle in 3 years' time. You can buy one from Toyota today, it's called the Mirai. Toyota are well ahead of the competition there.

The market at the moment and for the foreseeable future is hybrid and Toyota are ahead of the game there. They are virtually the only choice for private hire drivers in many countries, especially the UK.

 

[trebor79]

I haven't had my Tesla serviced at all in 60,000 miles. All I've had is 2 tyres, and replaced the wiper blades and air con pollen filters myself.

 

[E27007]

ONE (of several) such aspects may not apply. But there are many other costs associated with motoring, not refuelling related, that may have an impact. Substantially reduced service and/or maintenance costs are highly likely. Brakes - something like 4x the lifespan; never, not ever, needing a new exhaust; no clutch to wear, simple reduction gearbox which (in some marques) never need an oil change and more general matters related to massively simpler mechanics. My 5-year service just cost £130 at a main dealer, including MOT and new wiper blades and another 12 months roadside/at home recovery service (of itself worth, what, £70 ish?). And bottom tier road tax despite typically good performance.

My friend in a major car dealership (he is the CEO), advised depreciation of ZEV is 50% in 18 months, an IC car 50% in three years, the price of a set of wiper blades and a routine service are trivialities.

 

[Class 317]

For all the people criticising Toyota, you do realise that it has 15% of the car market in Africa as a whole and over 24% in South Africa, as just two examples of markets where BEVs are irrelevant. Toyota will sell to areas where there is hardly any running water or electricity, let alone a car-park full of fast chargers. At present only 1% of its worldwide sales are BEVs.

The list of manufacturers who have abandoned their BEV targets grows longer by the day.

BMW are promising a production fuel cell vehicle in 3 years' time. You can buy one from Toyota today, it's called the Mirai. Toyota are well ahead of the competition there.

The market at the moment and for the foreseeable future is hybrid and Toyota are ahead of the game there. They are virtually the only choice for private hire drivers in many countries, especially the UK.

The economics of hydrogen as a road fuel are always going to be difficult if it's made from 4.5 times the amount of electricity to deliver the same useful energy.

That is not going to change as it's a chemistry limitation rather than a engineering efficiency problem.

Also the transport and fueling infrastructure will be very costly and far in excess of any charger and grid upgrades.

Hydrogen cars have been technically possible and indeed small numbers of vehicles produced for the last 2 decades or more but have never shown promise of turning mainstream. Indeed in buses and HGV's the trend has been away from them for some time.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Jan 2025 ==

My friend in a major car dealership (he is the CEO), advised depreciation of ZEV is 50% in 18 months, an IC car 50% in three years, the price of a set of wiper blades and a routine service are trivialities.

Second hand prices would suggest otherwise?

 

[bspahh]

My friend in a major car dealership (he is the CEO), advised depreciation of ZEV is 50% in 18 months, an IC car 50% in three years, the price of a set of wiper blades and a routine service are trivialities.

Depreciation varies wildly based on the make and model of car.

If you base it on the list price, and the manufacturer pre-registers cars and sells them as nearly new, or offers discounts to fleet buyers, then the depreciation can be high, but that would only be relative to the list price, and not the price that you should have paid.

If you want a car, you have to buy one. If you can find a used car that does what you need it to do, great. Buy that and save some money from depreciation. If you want/need a new car, then make sure you get it for a reasonable price.

Once you have a car, selling it and getting another is fine if it no longer does what you need it to do. Perhaps it is too small, big, expensive or unreliable.

If you are just bored with it, then selling it and buying another one with a dealer is an expensive pass time. Selling and buying privately, is a risky one, unless you can be sure of the condition of the car you are buying.

 

[Sun Chariot]

Selling and buying privately, is a risky one, unless you can be sure of the condition of the car you are buying.

Only 2 of my cars have been purchased at dealer; one was used and the other was a dealership demonstrator. My other cars I bought (and then sold) privately

 

[jon0844]

My friend in a major car dealership (he is the CEO), advised depreciation of ZEV is 50% in 18 months, an IC car 50% in three years, the price of a set of wiper blades and a routine service are trivialities.

If you also ignore all the things you won't need to spend money on with an EV over time, compared to an ICE vehicle.

 

[Harpers Tate]

My friend in a major car dealership (he is the CEO), advised depreciation of ZEV is 50% in 18 months, an IC car 50% in three years, the price of a set of wiper blades and a routine service are trivialities.

So - buy a 1-year old one. Should be a bargain.

 

[trebor79]

My friend in a major car dealership (he is the CEO), advised depreciation of ZEV is 50% in 18 months, an IC car 50% in three years, the price of a set of wiper blades and a routine service are trivialities.

That doesn't really matter as people who replace their car every few years tend to have it on a PCP or lease and so aren't exposed to depreciation. Those who buy them outright tend to keep them for more than 5 years and often into a decade by which time all cars have lost about 90% of their value.

Also, that's Vs list price, and nobody pays list price.

 

[jon0844]

Unless you need a car with a very personalised specification you almost certainly should be buying a pre registered demonstrator, or a second hand car a year or so old, over a new car.

I bought new once and paid a premium but it was a car where there were loads of extras over and above the top spec. I had the money and wasn't going to be convinced otherwise!

Increasingly cars are coming with only two or three trim options and there are next to no options to add on. Those that are, are often dealer fit so you could add them to your second hand car. In some cases you can fit them yourself.

I can't see myself ever buying a brand new car again so that huge depreciation doesn't affect me one bit. In fact, if it saves me money on the car second hand then I'm all for it.

Remember, batteries are getting ever cheaper so the car industry is lowering prices all the time for EVs. The Dacia Spring has had a price cut in some markets just recently and if they come to the UK then the cheapest EV will become even cheaper.

Anyone who bought already will take the hit, but it can be argued that even if you are impacted you need to factor in potentially paying a tenth of the cost of 'fuel' for the time you had the EV, especially as the cost of electricity hasn't gone up on tariffs like Intelligent Octopus Go but petrol has increased quite a bit in the last few weeks. £1.43 at one station near me (although Costco is still £1.31 for now).

 

[Bald Rick]

My friend in a major car dealership (he is the CEO), advised depreciation of ZEV is 50% in 18 months, an IC car 50% in three years, the price of a set of wiper blades and a routine service are trivialities.

Perhaps for some models, in which case go and buy an 18 month old one.

Not for other models.

The launch price of the Tesla 3 in 2019 was £39k for the Standard Plus model (the lowest spec).

Six years later, and the cheapest you’ll find with less than 100k on the clock and not an insurance job are £13k, ie depreciation of 66%. Those with low mileage are £16-17k, ie depreciation of 56%.

Brand new, they are now £41k (surprisingly unaffectd by inflation!) 18 month old versions are going for £34k. That’s 20%.

 

[trebor79]

Brand new, they are now £41k (surprisingly unaffectd by inflation!) 18 month old versions are going for £34k. That’s 20%.

Tesla efficiency of increase economy of scale since 2019, and batteries rapidly reducing in cost.
Nearly demonstrates why mandate or no mandate the EV transition is unstoppable.

 

[telstarbox]

For the last year of sales SMMT shows battery cars on 20% market share (up from 17% the year before) but petrol still on 52%. Given that modern cars easily last a decade, are there going to be lots of petrol owners left high and dry with partly used vehicles if the transition keeps going?

Source

UK New Car Registration Data - Latest Figures & Statistics | SMMT

Discover the latest UK car registration data: new car registration statistics, the number of cars in the UK, and more.

www.smmt.co.uk

 

[The Ham]

Well in my street there are now less lampposts, they are further apart and moved away from the edge of the kerb after the council replaced the existing lighting with new led luminaries on top of aluminium posts twice the height of the original steel lampposts. This has been repeated throughout the 1930s era housing in the area. There is probably one lamppost for every 10-15 houses.

If one lamp post was able to charge two cars that's one charger for 5 to 8 houses.

Assuming that a car can do 180 miles and the average driven is 8,000 miles a year (averages at less than 40 miles a working day) then each car would only need charging 3 times a fortnight or one every 3 working days.

That's enough for about half the houses to be able use one charger for a day each time they needed to charge.

One thing to consider, some people leave for work earlier than others, from a 7kw charger it's possible to add 20 miles on an hour, so if you needed to (and you left for work later) it could be possible to charge between (say) 7:30 and 8:30 and be able to gain enough charge to keep you going.

That's without factoring in various factors, for example retried people who may be able to charge during the day, weekend charging, variations in car ownership (whilst some homes may own 2 cars, how's that balance against those who have none), variations in milage driven, charging undertaken elsewhere, and a raft of others - many of which would reduce the need for charging.

 

[Lloyds siding]

For the last year of sales SMMT shows battery cars on 20% market share (up from 17% the year before) but petrol still on 52%. Given that modern cars easily last a decade, are there going to be lots of petrol owners left high and dry with partly used vehicles if the transition keeps going?

Source

UK New Car Registration Data - Latest Figures & Statistics | SMMT

Discover the latest UK car registration data: new car registration statistics, the number of cars in the UK, and more.

www.smmt.co.uk

Not sure what you are commenting on. The 2035 date is for the sales of new cars, second-hand sales of ICE vehicles will continue, as will production of spare parts...though at a rapidly reducing rate. I expect I (and millions of others) may well be driving ICE vehicles for a good few years yet.

 

[dcbwhaley]

And a Japanese ICE is good for 100,000

If you also ignore all the things you won't need to spend money on with an EV over time, compared to an ICE vehicle.

Which is basically clutch and exhaust: a few hundred pounds every 80,000 miles

 

[cactustwirly]

Unless you need a car with a very personalised specification you almost certainly should be buying a pre registered demonstrator, or a second hand car a year or so old, over a new car.

I bought new once and paid a premium but it was a car where there were loads of extras over and above the top spec. I had the money and wasn't going to be convinced otherwise!

Increasingly cars are coming with only two or three trim options and there are next to no options to add on. Those that are, are often dealer fit so you could add them to your second hand car. In some cases you can fit them yourself.

I can't see myself ever buying a brand new car again so that huge depreciation doesn't affect me one bit. In fact, if it saves me money on the car second hand then I'm all for it.

Remember, batteries are getting ever cheaper so the car industry is lowering prices all the time for EVs. The Dacia Spring has had a price cut in some markets just recently and if they come to the UK then the cheapest EV will become even cheaper.

Anyone who bought already will take the hit, but it can be argued that even if you are impacted you need to factor in potentially paying a tenth of the cost of 'fuel' for the time you had the EV, especially as the cost of electricity hasn't gone up on tariffs like Intelligent Octopus Go but petrol has increased quite a bit in the last few weeks. £1.43 at one station near me (although Costco is still £1.31 for now).

Or in a lot of cases the pre reg cars are now 1 or 2 year old used cars.
The manufacturers are pre-reging EVs to meet the sales targets, dumping them in airfields and selling them as used cars 1.5-2years later.

Look on Auto Trader for 2 year old EVs and you'll see quite a few with less than 500 miles on them

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Jan 2025 ==

That doesn't really matter as people who replace their car every few years tend to have it on a PCP or lease and so aren't exposed to depreciation. Those who buy them outright tend to keep them for more than 5 years and often into a decade by which time all cars have lost about 90% of their value.

Also, that's Vs list price, and nobody pays list price.

Well you'll be hit by a big charge by the time you hand the car back as the PCP works by paying off the depreciation.

 

[jon0844]

If one lamp post was able to charge two cars that's one charger for 5 to 8 houses.

Assuming that a car can do 180 miles and the average driven is 8,000 miles a year (averages at less than 40 miles a working day) then each car would only need charging 3 times a fortnight or one every 3 working days.

That's enough for about half the houses to be able use one charger for a day each time they needed to charge.

One thing to consider, some people leave for work earlier than others, from a 7kw charger it's possible to add 20 miles on an hour, so if you needed to (and you left for work later) it could be possible to charge between (say) 7:30 and 8:30 and be able to gain enough charge to keep you going.

That's without factoring in various factors, for example retried people who may be able to charge during the day, weekend charging, variations in car ownership (whilst some homes may own 2 cars, how's that balance against those who have none), variations in milage driven, charging undertaken elsewhere, and a raft of others - many of which would reduce the need for charging.

Also, while some people don't know their neighbours, many do - and some streets have a good community spirit, so it isn't impossible to imagine people using common sense to park away from a charger to allow a fellow neighbour to do so, if they don't need to charge.

 

[Noddy]

Or in a lot of cases the pre reg cars are now 1 or 2 year old used cars.
The manufacturers are pre-reging EVs to meet the sales targets, dumping them in airfields and selling them as used cars 1.5-2years later.

Look on Auto Trader for 2 year old EVs and you'll see quite a few with less than 500 miles on them

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Jan 2025 ==

A quick search of up to 2023 cars (‘2 year old’) with less than 500 miles reveals 205 EVs and 651 petrol/diesel/hybrid cars (422/80/149 respectively). Why are they dumping non-EVs in airfields and selling them now if they’re trying to inflate EV numbers to meet targets?

 

[trebor79]

That's without factoring in various factors, for example retried people who may be able to charge during the day, weekend charging, variations in car ownership (whilst some homes may own 2 cars, how's that balance against those who have none), variations in milage driven, charging undertaken elsewhere, and a raft of others - many of which would reduce the need for charging.

The other options are charge whilst at work, or bang it on a DC charger for a few minutes whilst picking up some groceries.

Well you'll be hit by a big charge by the time you hand the car back as the PCP works by paying off the depreciation.

The point of a PCP is that if the monthly payments is affordable toy are protected from depreciation being higher than expected. One of our cars (both EVs) I bought outright. The other is on a PCP on which I was intending to make the balloon payment but it looks like I'll save a couple of thousand or maybe a bit more by handing it back and buying another one second hand.

 

[thejuggler]

Wait for the time their ammonia fuelled vehicles also include a 1970s perm.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Jan 2025 ==


Even for a 10 year old car - regardless whether an EV or ICE - that Nissan Leaf seems a "dog" and poor value for £1500

Not watched the video, but it is accepted a ten year old Leaf is early adopter technology. The improvements in ten years have been significant, in another ten years current EVs will be as out of date as current ones are to a Leaf.

The new Renault 5 at £23k is an example of how the market has developed.

 

[Sun Chariot]

The new Renault 5 at £23k is an example of how the market has dedeveloped.

I watched "Harry's Garage" review the new R5 EV; and it's an impressive car for the price.

 

[Peter Sarf]

If one lamp post was able to charge two cars that's one charger for 5 to 8 houses.

Assuming that a car can do 180 miles and the average driven is 8,000 miles a year (averages at less than 40 miles a working day) then each car would only need charging 3 times a fortnight or one every 3 working days.

That's enough for about half the houses to be able use one charger for a day each time they needed to charge.

One thing to consider, some people leave for work earlier than others, from a 7kw charger it's possible to add 20 miles on an hour, so if you needed to (and you left for work later) it could be possible to charge between (say) 7:30 and 8:30 and be able to gain enough charge to keep you going.

That's without factoring in various factors, for example retried people who may be able to charge during the day, weekend charging, variations in car ownership (whilst some homes may own 2 cars, how's that balance against those who have none), variations in milage driven, charging undertaken elsewhere, and a raft of others - many of which would reduce the need for charging.

But how many people are going to be prepared to play musical chairs with the spaces for charging their EV. When I am at home I want to park the car and then not move it for weeks. That means that if I had an EV then once I have got it on charge I am not moving it afterwards.

 

[Bald Rick]

For the last year of sales SMMT shows battery cars on 20% market share (up from 17% the year before) but petrol still on 52%. Given that modern cars easily last a decade, are there going to be lots of petrol owners left high and dry with partly used vehicles if the transition keeps going?

Source

UK New Car Registration Data - Latest Figures & Statistics | SMMT

Discover the latest UK car registration data: new car registration statistics, the number of cars in the UK, and more.

www.smmt.co.uk

What do you mean by high and dry? There’s nothing stopping people using petrol cars in 10 years time.

 

[jon0844]

But how many people are going to be prepared to play musical chairs with the spaces for charging their EV. When I am at home I want to park the car and then not move it for weeks. That means that if I had an EV then once I have got it on charge I am not moving it afterwards.

If you leave a car on a public highway for weeks there's every chance the council will come and move it at some point.

I am sure people will work it out amongst themselves. Don't park your car that isn't going to move for ages next to a place to charge. I'm sure there aren't many people who 'dump' a car on a road for any length of time, as they may question why they own one if they're never using it. Perhaps you have more than one car, which would make more sense.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Jan 2025 ==

What do you mean by high and dry? There’s nothing stopping people using petrol cars in 10 years time.

Well, there is one thing.. price!

But, yes, you're absolutely right. People who want to keep their current diesel car that does 800 miles so they can visit a sick granny at 2am on a winter morning will be free to keep it another ten or twenty years.

I think by 2035 there will be mostly EVs on the road, just as now you rarely see a car without daytime running lights (a legal requirement since cars built in 2011?) so those without are easily identified as 'old' cars.

People who have a particularly special ICE car will probably want to keep it, but may well be using a low-loader to move it around from car show to car show, or track to track, as I can't see why anyone would want to keep a current car on the road for another 10-20 years and pay whatever petrol and diesel costs by then.

Especially as solar panels are now getting so cheap, along with home batteries, that more and more people will be able to benefit from potentially free electricity to run their cars.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Jan 2025 ==

I watched "Harry's Garage" review the new R5 EV; and it's an impressive car for the price.

I believe there are cheaper models of the Citroen e-C3 and Renault 5 EV coming soon too.. with a lower range and lower trim level, but even more ideal for city dwellers and those who want one as a second car - needing neither range, performance (although all EVs are usually very quick to 30mph which is essential for safe driving) or toys.

I am currently wondering if I need the big battery for the R5 if I get one this summer. It may well be that the leasing cost is about the same, maybe even more expensive for the smaller battery version, so that confuses things too.

 

[Bletchleyite]

My friend in a major car dealership (he is the CEO), advised depreciation of ZEV is 50% in 18 months, an IC car 50% in three years, the price of a set of wiper blades and a routine service are trivialities.

If you buy a new car you're basically financing depreciation, ICE or EV. If that's not your thing, and it's not mine either, you should buy used, again ICE or EV as you prefer. It's not an issue that's specific to either.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Especially as solar panels are now getting so cheap, along with home batteries, that more and more people will be able to benefit from potentially free electricity to run their cars.

That's all well and good if you've managed to get on the housing ladder... But if you haven't, it doesn't matter how cheap things like solar panels or home batteries get. I'm not going to be able to convince my absentee landlord to install such things, at least not without the costs being passed on to me through a significant rent increase... and I'm definitely not paying to install things in a property I don't own!

I've been sceptical about the transition to BEVs and remain so, but I do quite like the look of the new Renault 5. If I was in a situation where owning an EV was remotely practical I'd definitely consider one.
I wouldn't touch the Dacia Spring with a ten foot pole though- despite being badge-engineered as a Dacia it's dodgy Chinese tat.

 

[telstarbox]

What do you mean by high and dry? There’s nothing stopping people using petrol cars in 10 years time.

I meant in terms of petrol stations closing down around them.

 

[AM9]

I meant in terms of petrol stations closing down around them.

Which will be the ultimate sanction (along with.ever tightening restrictions on where IC vehicles are tolerated) for those intent on continuing to polluted where an alternative is the norm.

 

[tomuk]

If one lamp post was able to charge two cars that's one charger for 5 to 8 houses.

Assuming that a car can do 180 miles and the average driven is 8,000 miles a year (averages at less than 40 miles a working day) then each car would only need charging 3 times a fortnight or one every 3 working days.

That's enough for about half the houses to be able use one charger for a day each time they needed to charge.

One thing to consider, some people leave for work earlier than others, from a 7kw charger it's possible to add 20 miles on an hour, so if you needed to (and you left for work later) it could be possible to charge between (say) 7:30 and 8:30 and be able to gain enough charge to keep you going.

That's without factoring in various factors, for example retried people who may be able to charge during the day, weekend charging, variations in car ownership (whilst some homes may own 2 cars, how's that balance against those who have none), variations in milage driven, charging undertaken elsewhere, and a raft of others - many of which would reduce the need for charging.

This is so unrealistic. There can be battles fought over parking spaces there is no way that a street will happily share a couple of charging points.