Welsh Assembly Government still planning Cambrian hourly for 2011

[anthony263]

personally think they should just stop wasting time and money on these studies etc and just get on with it.

Also how about ordering some new DMU's would certainly help ATW. Sometimes i wonder if it would have been easier to have just ordered some class 172's fitted with ERTM's for the cambrian rather than retrofitting the class 158's.

Personally i cant seem the DMU shortage ending for a quite a while at least til some of the class 165's are displaced from the Thames valley, most of these are more than likely to go to FGW & Northern.

Wonder if Bombardier will give a discount if we order some more class 172's?

 

[The Planner]

Things must have really died a death then, performance modelling on how robust it would all be was on the cards ages ago from what I heard. Either it wasn't done or put on hold.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Also how about ordering some new DMU's would certainly help ATW. Sometimes i wonder if it would have been easier to have just ordered some class 172's fitted with ERTM's for the cambrian rather than retrofitting the class 158's.

172s would be wasted on the Cambrian, it isnt as though you stop every 5 to 10 minutes.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The WG Election and new Minister getting his feet under the table plus rail industry lead times have conspired against anything happening for December I fear. It would have to be the first thing signed off straight away by the new administration to be included in Dec 11 tt change and indications are that nothing is coming out until the full transport plan review is announced. Fireguard and WAG 2 are safe as commitments already made.

Perhaps my understanding of the T-180 horizon is wrong? Anyone care to comment?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Things must have really died a death then, performance modelling on how robust it would all be was on the cards ages ago from what I heard. Either it wasn't done or put on hold.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


172s would be wasted on the Cambrian, it isnt as though you stop every 5 to 10 minutes.

try doing Mach to Pwllheli!!!

 

[The Planner]

The WG Election and new Minister getting his feet under the table plus rail industry lead times have conspired against anything happening for December I fear. It would have to be the first thing signed off straight away by the new administration to be included in Dec 11 tt change

Nothing to stop ATW spot bidding the extra services in, they could start in December if they really wanted to

try doing Mach to Pwllheli!!!

Fair point !

 

[1V53]

You all fail to get the fact that it takes more than 5 and a bit months to recruit and train up new drivers from a standing start!

 

[merlodlliw]

You all fail to get the fact that it takes more than 5 and a bit months to recruit and train up new drivers from a standing start!

Fair point, an ATW senior Manager told us in Wrexham over a year ago ,we are ready to go, if the money is on the table for the extra Cambrian services, I agree with Gareth December timetable is only five months away, the new study is a good way of installing delaying tactics. On the politics side, Labour does not have one directly elected constituency Westminster or Cardiff MP/AM on any part of the Cambrian from Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth or Pwlhelli, and the current big time fall out between Labour & Plaid does not help Mid Wales rail.

Personally, I would kill off Gerald (WAG EX1) & put the £2 millions plus annual Open Access money on the Cambrian where its needed, now we have a supposed 67 service via Wrexham,but too late now, an opportunity missed.
my opinion of course. Also the West Wales new open access DMU was decided on political aspirations, so it could be done on the Cambrian if the will was there.

With ATW currently running a service with practically no reserves where would the stock come from fitted with ERTMS, ATW have no spares.

I wish Gareth all the best, but I fear the aspirations of the Current Minister,do not favour the Cambrian Railway this year.

Pity we can not divorce Railways from politicians of any shade and get on with moving people on the Cambrian West to East.

Finally the letter from Thread one

Ieuan Wyn Jones Deputy Minister for the Economy and Transport
02 August 2010 in letter to Mick Bates AM (Montgomeryshire)

"My officials are working closely with ATW and NR to finalise the timetable options for meeting the National Transport Plan commitment to introduce an hourly daytime service between Aberystwyth and Shrewsbury by 2011".

Bob

 

[Gareth Marston]

Notice were (SARPA) angling for "extra services" not "hourly", "daytime hourly" or Aunt Sally's Hourly! I think we recognise that for various reasons going the whole hog in one leap is not going to be practical. However getting 1 or 2 extra trains is achievable without needing more drivers and of course the source of the stock is still the same as when ATW tried to run to Marylebone- the return of their own loan units with FGW once the 150's are cascaded from London Midland means that the 2 158 diagrams on Maesteg to Chletenham can be replaced with more suitable 150's.

The 2 primary timetabling gaps on the Cambrian are the lack of a connection up the coast from the 1730 ex Aberystwyth and the very obvious gap in arrival times into Shrewsbury between 0711 & 0925. Both these hit the access to employment/education market hard.

As a minimum there should be a 0707 Machynlleth to Shrewsbury working arriving 0825 and possibly that then becomes the unit which joins up with the 0511 ex Holyhead to go forward to Birmingham as 4 car from Shrewsbury.

 

[tirphil]

Carwyn Jones, First Minister of the Welsh Government, stated last week during questioning in the Senedd, that the Welsh Government is committed to seeing additional services between Aberystwyth and Shrewsbury during this financial year.

Consideration is also being given to a feasibility report on the possibility of (re)opening a station at Bow Street.

However the Welsh National Transport Plan has not yet been published to my knowledge and so we will all have to await events.

 

[anthony263]

Iwonder if the WAG will consider ordering new rolling stock to help boost capacity. either that or hope FGW get new class 172's and then try and get some of the class 158's

 

[Gareth Marston]

Carwyn Jones, First Minister of the Welsh Government, stated last week during questioning in the Senedd, that the Welsh Government is committed to seeing additional services between Aberystwyth and Shrewsbury during this financial year.

Consideration is also being given to a feasibility report on the possibility of (re)opening a station at Bow Street.

However the Welsh National Transport Plan has not yet been published to my knowledge and so we will all have to await events.

Up till now the party line has been the national transport plan is being prioritized will be announced in autumn. It may be that it is indeed funded from the next 3 years budget which was announced today. I suspect it stands a better chance as its infrastructure work has been completed and the cuts in revenue funding are no way as severe as for capital. It may be that this is nowhere near the top of Labours transport wish list but the reality of severely constrained capital budgets - lets face it sticking a couple of extra trains on the Cambrian is peanuts compared to some of the unaffordable road schemes that have been mooted - have let it through.

TraCC have already paid for a feasibility report on Bow St and Carno.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The new Network Rail Industry Plan includes the following around Chester/Shrewsbury:

Saltney-Wrexham redoubling and line speed increase to 90mph (also Gobowen to Shrewsbury) in 2012/13 - "in development"
90mph Shrewsbury-Wolverhampton by 2014 "on hold due to funding issues"
North Wales main line due for modular signalling and "line speeds raised to 100mph where practical"
Wrexham-Bidston - no change; electrification seems to have bitten the dust
Chester-Hooton - line speed increase from 60 to 70mph (this year).
Chester-Crewe - electrification still an "aspiration"

All the documents are on http://www.networkrail.co.uk/iip.aspx

 

[jones_bangor]

Iwonder if the WAG will consider ordering new rolling stock to help boost capacity. either that or hope FGW get new class 172's and then try and get some of the class 158's

More likely that 175s from Holyhead - Cardiff's could be displaced by 67/DVT operated Mk2's/3's, and the subsequent knocked on 158s could be allocated to the Cambrian.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Here's the actual exchange

21st September in the Senedd

Gwasanaethau Rheilffyrdd


Rail Services

7. William Powell: Pa gynlluniau sydd gan y Prif Weinidog i wella gwasanaethau rheilffyrdd yng Nghanolbarth a Gorllewin Cymru. OAQ(4)0112(FM)


7. William Powell: What plans does the First Minister have to improve rail services in Mid and West Wales . OAQ(4)0112(FM)



The First Minister: Those plans will be contained in the national transport plan, which will be published in the autumn.

William Powell: Thank you very much for that answer. It seems to me that the key to improving rail services in the region is the re-opening of strategic local railway stations that were closed way back in the 1960s. This would yield particular benefits in terms of sustainable development and promoting local regeneration—I am thinking in particular of Carno, Bow Street and St Clears stations. Will the First Minister make a commitment to support the work of local groups in those areas to promote this cause?

The First Minister: We have just—it was this week, almost—began the services to Fishguard from Carmarthen . It is the first time for many years, I suspect, that there has been a discrete service to Fishguard that does not rely on connecting with ferry services, which I trust that people there will welcome. With regard to the stations at Bow Street and Carno, we have received the feasibility reports from the regional transport consortium for mid Wales and we are discussing the prioritisation of these projects in relation to other projects in its regional transport plan.

Joyce Watson: I am sure that the First Minister will share my optimism and confidence that the additional Fishguard-to-Carmarthen train service that he has just mentioned will be a big success story for north Pembrokeshire and that region. However, it is an experimental service and it is a case of 'use it or lose it’ for the next three years; therefore, it is vital that all integrated projects are up and running as soon as possible to ensure that local people and visitors can make maximum use of it. Will he therefore ensure that the Welsh Government continues to work alongside Pembrokeshire County Council and partners so that the arrangements for those bus connections are complete at the earliest opportunity and, if possible, can he provide any updates in the future on the focal project to reopen the Fishguard and Goodwick station?

The First Minister: I am sure that those can be provided, in time, by the appropriate Minister. I understand that Pembrokeshire council has worked with the local commercial bus operator to link the scheduled bus service with the additional trains at the harbour station. It is crucial that there is integration between the two different modes of transport in order to make them both more effective.

Russell George: One issue that several constituents have raised with me relates to the number of carriages on Arriva Trains Wales services on the Birmingham to Aberystwyth route. Several people contacted my office last week to tell me that a two-carriage train from Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth was filled over capacity and that at least 120 people were standing. Those commuters obviously felt very uncomfortable and unsafe. I am sure that you will agree that that level of service is unacceptable, First Minister. Will you make representations to Arriva Trains Wales to ensure that it realises the importance of this route for business and tourists and that we cannot afford to have people being put off coming into Wales due to a poor transport system? Will you agree to write to Arriva Trains Wales?

The First Minister: I will do that. It is unacceptable that people should have to suffer overcrowded trains. I know that many of the trains on the service have four carriages, but clearly not on that occasion. The national transport plan will look to introduce daytime hourly services between Aberystwyth and Shrewsbury , and I know that timetable options are being looked at at the moment. That should help to reduce overcrowding.



Elin Jones: Yr wyf yn croesawu’r hyn y mae’r Prif Weinidog newydd ei ddweud. Gwnaeth y Llywodraeth flaenorol ymrwymiad i ariannu gwasanaethau bob awr rhwng Aberystwyth ac Amwythig ac i’w cyflwyno yn ystod y flwyddyn ariannol hon. Yr wyf yn falch o glywed bod yr ymrwymiad hwnnw’n parhau ac y bydd y gwasanaethau hynny’n cael eu cyflwyno cyn mis Ebrill y flwyddyn nesaf. Gofynnaf ichi gadarnhau hynny unwaith eto.


Elin Jones: I welcome what the First Minister has just said. The previous Government made a commitment to funding hourly services between Aberystwyth and Shrewsbury and to introducing them during this financial year. I am pleased to hear that that commitment stands and that those services will be introduced before April next year. I ask you to confirm that once again.

Y Prif Weinidog: Dyna’r hyn yr ydym eisiau ei wneud. Mae’n rhaid wastad edrych ar y sefyllfa ariannol, ond mae’n wir dweud bod y gwasanaeth rhwng Aberystwyth ac Amwythig yn un prysur ac felly mae’n bwysig dros ben bod trenau ar gael er mwyn delio â’r nifer o bobl sydd eisiau defnyddio’r gwasanaeth.


The First Minister: That is what we want to do. We must always look at the financial situation, but it is true to say that the service between Aberystwyth and Shrewsbury is a busy one and therefore it is extremely important that trains are available in order to deal with the volume of people who want to use the service.



Jenny Rathbone: One problem facing railway services is the theft of copper wire from the overhead signals. Can you tell me what action the Government is taking to try to mitigate the worst effects of this?

The First Minister: It is an operational matter for Network Rail and the transport police, but officials discussed this matter with transport police as part of our regular quarterly meeting on 16 September. The transport police assured officials that they are regularly patrolling scrap metal merchants and acting on the intelligence that they receive. This work, by its nature, can often be reactive and many of these thefts are not known about beforehand, clearly, but are difficult to get intelligence on. Nevertheless, they are working hard to deal with these thefts in the light of the increase in the world price of copper.

3.00 p.m.

 

[Rhydgaled]

More likely that 175s from Holyhead - Cardiff's could be displaced by 67/DVT operated Mk2's/3's, and the subsequent knocked on 158s could be allocated to the Cambrian.

Where are the 158s you could knock on though? As Gareth Marston mentioned, there's the odd one on Maesteg/Cheltenham workings but apart from that I can only think of the existing Cambrian services and the Holyhead - Birminghams. The only way to get the 158s off the later I guess would be to require a change at Shrewsbury, Chester or Wrexham to get from the North Wales coast to Birmingham, since anything that goes to Birmingham from Shrewsbury ends up on the Cambrian and hence needs to be a 158.

If there really are 2 158 diagrams on Maesteg services then that might just be enough to have an hourly Aberystwyth - Birmingham service.

 

[Gareth Marston]

More likely that 175s from Holyhead - Cardiff's could be displaced by 67/DVT operated Mk2's/3's, and the subsequent knocked on 158s could be allocated to the Cambrian.

Here's the WG budget@

Improve Domestic Connectivity (regional and National)
Improve Public Transport (Rail)

Dept Revenue £ Millions

2011/12 175,598
2012/13 172,371 Interestingly the drop is 2.617 a sum that may be familiar?
2013/14 171,579
2014/15 171,579

Capital £ Millions

2011/12 27,105
2012/13 47,142 any guess's at £20 million spike?
2013/14 27,426
2014/15 27,426
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Where are the 158s you could knock on though? As Gareth Marston mentioned, there's the odd one on Maesteg/Cheltenham workings but apart from that I can only think of the existing Cambrian services and the Holyhead - Birminghams. The only way to get the 158s off the later I guess would be to require a change at Shrewsbury, Chester or Wrexham to get from the North Wales coast to Birmingham, since anything that goes to Birmingham from Shrewsbury ends up on the Cambrian and hence needs to be a 158.

If there really are 2 158 diagrams on Maesteg services then that might just be enough to have an hourly Aberystwyth - Birmingham service.

Yep - most days also will find 158's on Cdf to Holyheads boils down to 175 availability never being quite enough.

 

[anthony263]

Would it not be possible to have more loco hauled sets to operate on some routes in wales?

I mean perhaps use loco hauled trains on the Cardiff - Holyhead route or even on the Swansea - Llandrindod -Shrewsbury route.

Either that or maybe run a loco hauled train on the south wales - Manchester route which could provide a increase in capacity and free up some 175's to displace the 158's on other routes to be used on the cambrian?

 

[Rhydgaled]

I am thinking in particular of Carno, Bow Street and St Clears stations. Will the First Minister make a commitment to support the work of local groups in those areas to promote this cause?

Interesting to hear mention of St. Clears re-opening, haven't heard any mention of that for a while. Any idea what the state of play with that idea was? No reply from the minister regarding that particular point?

Joyce Watson: I am sure that the First Minister will share my optimism and confidence that the additional Fishguard-to-Carmarthen train service that he has just mentioned will be a big success story for north Pembrokeshire and that region. However, it is an experimental service and it is a case of 'use it or lose it’ for the next three years; therefore, it is vital that all integrated projects are up and running as soon as possible to ensure that local people and visitors can make maximum use of it. Will he therefore ensure that the Welsh Government continues to work alongside Pembrokeshire County Council and partners so that the arrangements for those bus connections are complete at the earliest opportunity and, if possible, can he provide any updates in the future on the focal project to reopen the Fishguard and Goodwick station?

The First Minister: I am sure that those can be provided, in time, by the appropriate Minister. I understand that Pembrokeshire council has worked with the local commercial bus operator to link the scheduled bus service with the additional trains at the harbour station. It is crucial that there is integration between the two different modes of transport in order to make them both more effective.

The council have indeed funded buses to connect with SOME of the new trains. I've e-mailed Richards Bros (the bus operator) regarding two issues, the lack of connection with the 17:39 Cardiff - Fishguard rail journey (there's a change required at Clarbeston Road) and the fact that day trips to Cardiff solely by public transport are impossible if you live between 'little Newport' and Cardigan. Unfortunatly, their reply suggests that pepole would prefer to lose the service rather than use it:

The number of passengers we have carried to and from the harbour since the 12th September are very disappointing and the cost extending the service to Cardigan in the evening would probably be too expensive.

Passengers can't use a service that doesn't exist, but unless they can be made to use it, it never will exist.

P.S. Just to explain why I say day trips to Cardiff solely by public transport are impossible if you live between 'little Newport' and Cardigan. I think you can leave Cardiff later to get to Cardigan via Shrewsbury and Aberystwyth than you can to go direct from Cardiff to, say, Eglwyswrw.

Would it not be possible to have more loco hauled sets to operate on some routes in wales?

I mean perhaps use loco hauled trains on the Cardiff - Holyhead route or even on the Swansea - Llandrindod -Shrewsbury route.

Either that or maybe run a loco hauled train on the south wales - Manchester route which could provide a increase in capacity and free up some 175's to displace the 158's on other routes to be used on the cambrian?

Sounds like a good idea, except for what I said earlier about there being not many 158 diagrams that don't vist the Cambrian during each day anyway. An idea I had a while back was to make up 6 57/7+mark2s+DBSO sets and use 5 of them daily (one spare), with them replacing 158s on Holyhead - Birmingham, but that was before I was told the Holyhead - Birminghams interwork with the Cambrian.

 

[The Planner]

Extra stations will cost a bomb as the infrastructure was altered purely to allow a hourly service with the stations already there. You would need at least one extra loop if you start re-opening Carno etc...as all the passing points would be different.

 

[emoaconr]

Will there ever be a semi-fast service operating over the HoW line?

It was hinted at some time ago, but judging by the state of the infrastructure, I can't see it ever happening.

 

[merlodlliw]

Here's the WG budget@

Improve Domestic Connectivity (regional and National)
Improve Public Transport (Rail)

Dept Revenue £ Millions

2011/12 175,598
2012/13 172,371 Interestingly the drop is 2.617 a sum that may be familiar?
2013/14 171,579
2014/15 171,579

Capital £ Millions

2011/12 27,105
2012/13 47,142 any guess's at £20 million spike?
2013/14 27,426
2014/15 27,426
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Yep - most days also will find 158's on Cdf to Holyheads boils down to 175 availability never being quite enough.

Id take a guess on the capital Budget 2012/13 spike, as the money for doubling Saltney Wrexham is ring fenced at £28 millions, £12 millions short to bring it to £40 millions,my guess is £12millions here, not sure Wether Gowerton is ring fenced, but all the signals are go for the Wrexham redoubling, We await
the report, our fight was well worth the hassle & lobbying.
Having Carl the transport Minister as A.M for Saltney & Lesley Griffiths Minister for health also A.M for Wrexham was the icing on the cake.

Bob

PPS the revenue drop of £M2617 is around Geralds fee of £2million & the 175 WAG2 bought in at £625 thousand, looks like 67s are go.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Just been informed the Wrexham double tracking was raised in the Senedd on Tuesday by Local A.Ms , and confirmation should appear in the Rail strategic report due next month (November)


Bob

 

[Gareth Marston]

67's- wheres the extra £ for them then? ATW wont do it out of their pocket.

 

[jones_bangor]

67's- wheres the extra £ for them then? ATW wont do it out of their pocket.

The 67s have been resprayed - maybe the non-Gerald's are going loco-hauled, with no separate "premium" service perhaps?.....there'll have to be a time table jiggle anyway.......

Just thinking...........it would free up a few 158s......

 

[anthony263]

67's- wheres the extra £ for them then? ATW wont do it out of their pocket.

I am sure i read somewhere that it was someone in ATW who suggested using a 67 & dvt as it would be cheaper than hiring the 57's from virgin and a lot better considering DB wanted more work for the 67's

Personally i think it would be better to have all the Cardiff - Holyhead services go over to loco hauled operation to free up some 175's for other duties and hopefully freing up a class 158 or 2 for the cambrian.

I was told by someone on WNXX that a annoucement about the gowerton re-doubling was to be made soon.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I am sure i read somewhere that it was someone in ATW who suggested using a 67 & dvt as it would be cheaper than hiring the 57's from virgin and a lot better considering DB wanted more work for the 67's

Personally i think it would be better to have all the Cardiff - Holyhead services go over to loco hauled operation to free up some 175's for other duties and hopefully freing up a class 158 or 2 for the cambrian.

I was told by someone on WNXX that a annoucement about the gowerton re-doubling was to be made soon.

The £128 million capital budget will have to do the station refurb programme as well plus Gowerton. Wrexham/Chester various bits missed off Ebbw Vale. WG contribution to Energlyn and other new stations in SE Wales area. A drill down of what the amount pays for would be useful. I suspect something will give don't expect Hirwuan or Llangefni in next few years.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I suspect that tidying up - some extra capacity on existing services and so on is probably the best deal (along with canvasssing for Valleys electrification as a major strategic investment)

Infrastructure add on's not really desirable apart from completing Gowerton and Wrexham - Chester in the short / medium term. No-one has much money around really. This applies to Scotland as much as England and Wales.