• Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Why hasn't Crossrail led to more support for HS2?

Status
Not open for further replies.

Deepgreen

Established Member
Joined
12 Jun 2013
Messages
7,485
Location
Gomshall, Surrey
I really think you are overstimating the general public's knowledge of railway geography!
Exactly. Coming to this quite late, to address the OP's question - why would the general public make any mental connection between CR/EL and HS2, other than that the CR project was very prominently delivered (fully) many years late, and HS2 has also been castigated in the press, etc? I don't think the history of CR/EL would tend to encourage favourable views of HS2, especially as its eye-wateringly expensive raison d'etre has been so misrepresented as cutting 20 minutes off certain inter-city journey times, rather than the far deeper overall capacity function.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

Meerkat

Established Member
Joined
14 Jul 2018
Messages
9,276
Which people making what journeys by car? Certainly not folk making business trips from the north to London. Only the most swivel-eyed rail-hater makes that journey by car.
Maybe not if they are going in to central London. But otherwise it can be easier and cheaper to drive and how much M6 traffic is going into central London. If the core part of the route is really fast then journeys involving connections and/or driving to the station start to become viable.
 

Deepgreen

Established Member
Joined
12 Jun 2013
Messages
7,485
Location
Gomshall, Surrey
I see today that BBC News has an item quoting Mark Wild about the precarious position of HS2:


The HS2 project is in a "very serious situation" and needs a "fundamental reset", the new boss of the the high-speed railway company has warned.
Mark Wild, chief executive of HS2 Ltd, said he is committed to ensuring the railway opens "safely and efficiently".
His comments come after HS2 Ltd published an update outlining the progress in building the 140-mile line between London and the West Midlands.
The government's last estimate of the overall cost for the remaining Birmingham to London stretch is between £45bn and £54bn.

I was surprised/disappointed to see that he seemed to imply that the main purpose of the project was as a new, faster railway to the Midlands, rather than the fundamental benefit of capacity release. Perhaps I am reading this particular section too critically, but it doesn't mention the crucial capacity enhancement role of the project:
"New railways provide better journeys and they boost economic growth by fuelling investment in communities and businesses," Mr Wild said.

"HS2 represents a significant investment in Britain's future - and in the last month I've been inspired by the hugely impressive feats of civil engineering taking shape right along the route."
 

Peter Sarf

Established Member
Joined
12 Oct 2010
Messages
9,729
Location
Croydon
I see today that BBC News has an item quoting Mark Wild about the precarious position of HS2:




I was surprised/disappointed to see that he seemed to imply that the main purpose of the project was as a new, faster railway to the Midlands, rather than the fundamental benefit of capacity release. Perhaps I am reading this particular section too critically, but it doesn't mention the crucial capacity enhancement role of the project:
Most people I know (so non-railway oriented) see HS2 as something expensive that does not affect them and they have no interest in. Sadly.
 

Class 170101

On Moderation
Joined
1 Mar 2014
Messages
8,662
HS2 will have a wider impact than people think.

House Builders will only build where it is profitable to build housing. Unfortunately a substantial amount of this will be in the South East of England approximately 90 minutes away from London. If you can push that 90 minutes further from London this reduces the density of housing inside that area. This also includes supporting infrastructure like 400KV overhead electricity cables - another unpopular NIMBY item.

It also means that housing spread over a wider area reduces pressure on sevices like schools and hospitals, water and so on.

Theefore I think HS2 will be a good idea as it could push development further north and west, spread growth around the UK rather than just the overheating south east with more housing and associated infrastructure.

It should also be noted that its windier and rains more the further north and west you go so the power demands and extra water demands can be met more locally.
 

rob.rjt

Member
Joined
13 Mar 2010
Messages
102
I think there may be a number of issues that cause the lack of support:

1 - the benefits have not been explained. It is sold as faster trains to London, rather than more capacity for trains on the existing lines.
2 - if the benefits were explained, it will look like another South East centric scheme - i.e. it's for London commuters mainly - any speed benefit is a by-product, not the main point.
3 - the benefits are offset from the costs. For GWR stations on Crossrail, you had the cost of the disruption from electrification, but also the benefit of modern (and for some stations, more frequent) trains to London. For HS2, the disruption cost is borne by people remote from the benefit - the Buckinghamshire/Northamptonshire villages are the ones living with the disruption of the build and ongoing operation, but will not benefit from additional capacity on their local line (Chiltern/Met)
3a - where existing rail lines are affected (mainly Old Oak Common), the people affected have had a lot of disruption already with the Reading rebuild and then electrification - now they are having their journeys slowed down for interchange with and (if Euston is not build) crammed with people from HS2.
4 - people are suspicious about the actual benefits of the line - will it be cheaper for people to travel, or will they be forced into paying a High Speed Premium - this is especially true of Manchester if (as the Wikipedia article suggests) there are 3tph, would this be at the expense of the existing services?
 

Class 170101

On Moderation
Joined
1 Mar 2014
Messages
8,662
I think there may be a number of issues that cause the lack of support:

1 - the benefits have not been explained. It is sold as faster trains to London, rather than more capacity for trains on the existing lines.
2 - if the benefits were explained, it will look like another South East centric scheme - i.e. it's for London commuters mainly - any speed benefit is a by-product, not the main point.
Unfortunately now that Rishi Sunak has cancelled Phase 2A and 2B it does look a SE Centric scheme, but it wasn't previously. Capacity released by HS2 full scheme applied to ECML, MML and WCML with respect to Intercity services to / from London and to XC Intercity services between Birmingham and York. It would also allow for capacity around stations to be provided on a more local basis eg Milton Keynes to Birmingham (or London). Or how about Tamworth to Derby, Sheffield or Birmingham?

3 - the benefits are offset from the costs. For GWR stations on Crossrail, you had the cost of the disruption from electrification, but also the benefit of modern (and for some stations, more frequent) trains to London. For HS2, the disruption cost is borne by people remote from the benefit - the Buckinghamshire/Northamptonshire villages are the ones living with the disruption of the build and ongoing operation, but will not benefit from additional capacity on their local line (Chiltern/Met)
But you could argue the same applied to HS1 for the populations of Tilbury and Rainham (Essex) where they took all the disruption of building a railway they themselves cannot use because it doesn't stop there. Indeed HS1 was routed this way because the residents of the Garden of England did not want HS1 spoiling their view of it (mainly Tory). Now of course the richer people are complaining about HS2 because it passes through their green and pleasant land but they cannot use it. Swings and Roundabouts for me, I'm afraid I have no sympathy with the HS2 complainants and their case which has not been helped by their MP Greg Smith who has done nothing but complain about HS2.

3a - where existing rail lines are affected (mainly Old Oak Common), the people affected have had a lot of disruption already with the Reading rebuild and then electrification - now they are having their journeys slowed down for interchange with and (if Euston is not build) crammed with people from HS2.
The disruption could be managed. Euston is one example of this where the GWR services have been diverted. Could more services have been provided this way? Waterloo as per previous occasions has not been used this time, should some services have been diverted via this route?

In terms of post construction I don't think most Intercity passengers will see loadings increase from OOC into London and vice versa. If anything people will get off GWR services and head to either Elizabeth Line services or Euston or leave OOC station altogether.

The biggest challenge will be on Elizabeth line services with the western services seemingly full at certain times of the day so most of these people will be using services starting / finishing at OOC which will only have six of these off peak and 14 at peak based on the current timetable. The Off Peak looks challenging based on the current WTT.


4 - people are suspicious about the actual benefits of the line - will it be cheaper for people to travel, or will they be forced into paying a High Speed Premium - this is especially true of Manchester if (as the Wikipedia article suggests) there are 3tph, would this be at the expense of the existing services?
I hope the DfT will not set a premium like they did with HS1. if they want modal shift but whether it thinks that way who knows.

However we are getting to the point where the WCML is full then the DfT may well put the prices up anyway to stifle demand or use it as a means of (at least) part funding HS2 construction or its overspends as the DfT sees it.
 

johnr57

Member
Joined
29 Mar 2013
Messages
270
Unfortunately now that Rishi Sunak has cancelled Phase 2A and 2B it does look a SE Centric scheme

Which sums it up perfectly. There is a world north of the m62( and this may come as surprise to many, north of the M8 too) . How sad it is for those near CR and HS2 for the inconvenience for their service improvements, we just don’t have an adequate service in the first place. The north south divide lives on and transport infrastructure investment illustrates it to a tee.
 

Meole

Member
Joined
28 Oct 2018
Messages
736
The SE is the economic powerhouse, the North is already heavily subsidised.
 

beany

Member
Joined
17 Nov 2015
Messages
60
HS2 is being built to serve the capital city.
Not to benefit the North.
 

michael8

Member
Joined
13 Feb 2021
Messages
236
Location
UK
I think Crossrail was seen as a "unit" project, with clearly defined (to the public eyes) start and end point, fixed route, demonstrable need, etc etc. Whereas HS2 to the layman seems to be an umbrella term for an ever-changing project with ever changing aims etc

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Another difference is that Crossrail is integrated with the pricing structure of LU - ie. the same price as a regular journey, payable in the usual way. Very democratic - an improvement for everyone. HS2 is seen as being an "elite" version of the existing railway (higher prices, separate ticketing system/reservations etc, faster, more for business users etc).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

We all know that high speed is useful for long distance, ie. in Japan. In a small country like the UK, firstly there is less need for high speed and secondly London to Birmingham high speed is sort of pointless
 
Last edited:

Peter Sarf

Established Member
Joined
12 Oct 2010
Messages
9,729
Location
Croydon
I think Crossrail was seen as a "unit" project, with clearly defined (to the public eyes) start and end point, fixed route, demonstrable need, etc etc. Whereas HS2 to the layman seems to be an umbrella term for an ever-changing project with ever changing aims etc

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Another difference is that Crossrail is integrated with the pricing structure of LU - ie. the same price as a regular journey, payable in the usual way. Very democratic - an improvement for everyone. HS2 is seen as being an "elite" version of the existing railway (higher prices, separate ticketing system/reservations etc, faster, more for business users etc).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

We all know that high speed is useful for long distance, ie. in Japan. In a small country like the UK, firstly there is less need for high speed and secondly London to Birmingham high speed is sort of pointless
But bear in mind HS2 is not just about high speed and some would argue that high speed is not the primary purpose of HS2.

The purpose of HS2 is to relieve pressure on the West Coast Mainline thus allowing more freight and stopping services from the North.

To build a whole new long distance line it makes sense to build it to the latest high speed standards thus benefiting travellers from as far North as possible even if the line does not reach as far North as is desirable - YET.

The disaster is that for comparatively little more money extra benefit can be got by getting HS2 further North than just Phase1. But the budget has been blown !.

I wonder if the parallels are there with Crossrail beyond a basic new railway line. Crossrail (Elizabeth Line) is an urban line in London reaching out to the home counties. HS2 is about a very limited stop service improving connectivity for the North.

As an aside Crossrail might be better used as an example of how a new TransPennine route linking Liverpool/Manchester and Leeds/NE might work. Of course the worry there is that there might not be as much potential demand for a decent service demanding a new line. Keep TransPennine high speed capable and then HS2 beyond Phase1 becomes a more obvious benefit bringing more than just Manchester to the high speed rail network.
 
Last edited:

uglymonkey

Member
Joined
10 Aug 2018
Messages
708
Which sums it up perfectly. There is a world north of the m62( and this may come as surprise to many, north of the M8 too) . How sad it is for those near CR and HS2 for the inconvenience for their service improvements, we just don’t have an adequate service in the first place. The north south divide lives on and transport infrastructure investment illustrates it to a tee.
It's not just North South, its anywhere outside the South East/Lankan. Devon Cornwall, Wales, Northern Ireland.
 

jfowkes

Established Member
Joined
20 Jul 2017
Messages
1,271
We all know that high speed is useful for long distance, ie. in Japan. In a small country like the UK, firstly there is less need for high speed and secondly London to Birmingham high speed is sort of pointless
Japan isn't that much bigger than the UK. And of course Taiwan runs a very successful high speed line despite being a fair bit smaller than the UK.

If HS2 were just serving London-Birmingham, you could argue the project was pointless, but it's not. HS2 infrastructure will stop around Birmingham (for now, hopefully), but the trains will serve many destinations further north. I think this especially has not been communicated well. Ask the average person where HS2 trains will go and I'll suspect they'll say just to Birmingham.
 

Grimsby town

Member
Joined
4 Apr 2011
Messages
867
Japan isn't that much bigger than the UK. And of course Taiwan runs a very successful high speed line despite being a fair bit smaller than the UK.

If HS2 were just serving London-Birmingham, you could argue the project was pointless, but it's not. HS2 infrastructure will stop around Birmingham (for now, hopefully), but the trains will serve many destinations further north. I think this especially has not been communicated well. Ask the average person where HS2 trains will go and I'll suspect they'll say just to Birmingham.
Exactly. The UK has pretty long distances between major population centres on a north south axis. Its a long narrow country. Berlin-Munich/Cologne, Barcelona-Madrid, LA-San Francisco are all shorter as the crow flies than London to Glasgow. The UK is perfectly suited to highspeed rail from a distance point of view.
 

Senex

Established Member
Joined
1 Apr 2014
Messages
2,957
Location
York
The SE is the economic powerhouse, the North is already heavily subsidised.
That wasn't always so. Political decisions (or failures to take decisions) over the last hundred years were responsible for aiding the development of that situation.
 

michael8

Member
Joined
13 Feb 2021
Messages
236
Location
UK
Japan isn't that much bigger than the UK. And of course Taiwan runs a very successful high speed line despite being a fair bit smaller than the UK.

If HS2 were just serving London-Birmingham, you could argue the project was pointless, but it's not. HS2 infrastructure will stop around Birmingham (for now, hopefully), but the trains will serve many destinations further north. I think this especially has not been communicated well. Ask the average person where HS2 trains will go and I'll suspect they'll say just to Birmingham.
Hi, you're absolutely right. Thank you for this. Perhaps I explained badly - I was just trying to answer the question of the thread using "common knowledge". This is perhaps what the average person would think, and I totally agree with you that HS2 has not been communicated well.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Exactly. The UK has pretty long distances between major population centres on a north south axis. Its a long narrow country. Berlin-Munich/Cologne, Barcelona-Madrid, LA-San Francisco are all shorter as the crow flies than London to Glasgow. The UK is perfectly suited to highspeed rail from a distance point of view.
Very true indeed. I wonder if HS2 had been promoted as a new high-speed rail link between London and Glasgow - with intermediate stops at Birmingham, etc., it might have been better received. The average punter, especially if not a regular traveller, doesn't care that the line between London and Birmingham is congested, but sell it as a UK-wide megaproject that the whole country can get behind, especially one that links London and Scotland in this time, and I think it would have been really popular.
 

Krokodil

Established Member
Joined
23 Jan 2023
Messages
6,599
Location
Wales
HS2 is being built to serve the capital city.
Not to benefit the North.
Except that the economic output gains in Greater London would only have been 0.5%, compared with up to 4.3% for the Midlands and up to 3.2% for the North.
 

Nottingham59

Established Member
Joined
10 Dec 2019
Messages
3,341
Location
Nottingham
Except that the economic output gains in Greater London would only have been 0.5%, compared with up to 4.3% for the Midlands and up to 3.2% for the North.
Where are those numbers from please? And which part of "The Midlands" and which part of "The North" did they apply to?
 

Horizon22

Established Member
Associate Staff
Jobs & Careers
Joined
8 Sep 2019
Messages
11,015
Location
London
We all know that high speed is useful for long distance, ie. in Japan. In a small country like the UK, firstly there is less need for high speed and secondly London to Birmingham high speed is sort of pointless

Geographically Japan and UK actually have some relative similarities, for Honshu (the main island)

We are a densely populated nation on a relative north-south axis connecting major cities in a reasonably straight direction.

1736357480088.png
Image made from https://www.thetruesize.com/
 

Krokodil

Established Member
Joined
23 Jan 2023
Messages
6,599
Location
Wales

michael8

Member
Joined
13 Feb 2021
Messages
236
Location
UK
Geographically Japan and UK actually have some relative similarities, for Honshu (the main island)

We are a densely populated nation on a relative north-south axis connecting major cities in a reasonably straight direction.

View attachment 172449
Image made from https://www.thetruesize.com/
Very interesting, thanks so much for this. Interesting that the size of the two islands is largely similar, although it seems London - Edinburgh is roughly half the entire length of the main Japan island. I wonder if this Japan island has coastal megacities at the extremities ?
 

Nottingham59

Established Member
Joined
10 Dec 2019
Messages
3,341
Location
Nottingham
1736358052740.png
1.7% to 0.8% just within Greater Manchester, combined with 1.9% to 3.2% just within South Yorkshire, 1.6% just within West Yorkshire, and very little elsewhere, doesn't give anywhere near 3.2% across the whole of "The North".

The way I see it, the biggest productivity gains predicted for any region are in London, at between £2.8bn and £2.5bn, which benefits far more than any other regional centre.

The sad part is that this analysis was never applied to the benefits of providing better transport links within "The North" where greater agglomeration effects and increased productivty could have been achieved at far less cost than HS2.
 

Horizon22

Established Member
Associate Staff
Jobs & Careers
Joined
8 Sep 2019
Messages
11,015
Location
London
View attachment 172451

The way I see it, the biggest productivity gains predicted for any region are in London, at between £2.8bn and £2.5bn, which benefits far more than any other regional centre.

Yes but this is all relative. An extra £2.5bn to London is very different to an extra £1.3bn for Greater Manchester due to the size of their economies.
 

Ghostbus

On Moderation
Joined
17 Sep 2024
Messages
331
Location
England
* Fantastic idea started way too late
* Necessarily complex with tight timescales
* Costs billions
* Takes years
* Risks not managed
* Too big to fail
* Big stumble with the finish in sight

Massive test program, certified ready, running fine, then, uh, well...


What's not to like for anyone undecided on HS2?
 

Peter Sarf

Established Member
Joined
12 Oct 2010
Messages
9,729
Location
Croydon
* Fantastic idea started way too late
* Necessarily complex with tight timescales
* Costs billions
* Takes years
* Risks not managed
* Too big to fail
* Big stumble with the finish in sight

Massive test program, certified ready, running fine, then, uh, well...
Is this the similarity between CrossRail and HS2. Trouble is HS2 is getting rather stuck at the Too big to fail stage.

What's not to like for anyone undecided on HS2?
I thought Crossrail had an auto reverse facility for Paddington - Westbourne Sidings - Paddington ?.
So someone might well not see a driver in the cab thereabouts.
 

Krokodil

Established Member
Joined
23 Jan 2023
Messages
6,599
Location
Wales
1.7% to 0.8% just within Greater Manchester, combined with 1.9% to 3.2% just within South Yorkshire, 1.6% just within West Yorkshire, and very little elsewhere, doesn't give anywhere near 3.2% across the whole of "The North".
"Up to". And yes, the people of Aysgarth won't benefit as much as the people of Sheffield. HSR to Aysgarth truly would be unaffordable, sorry.

The way I see it, the biggest productivity gains predicted for any region are in London, at between £2.8bn and £2.5bn, which benefits far more than any other regional centre.
£2.8bn divided by 8.7m people in Greater London goes a bit less far than £3.1bn divided by 6m people in the West Midlands.
 

stut

Established Member
Joined
25 Jun 2008
Messages
1,924
I think cynicism about long-distance rail services is (justifiably) higher than London rail services.

The Lizzie Line is affordable. It's seen as being something everybody can use.

The assumption is that HS2 will be expensive, and, if you want any degree of flexibility, it will become unaffordable. I don't think that's an unreasonable assumption. The industry seems hell bent on removing affordable, flexible options.
 

CdBrux

Member
Joined
4 Mar 2014
Messages
924
Location
Munich
Exactly. The UK has pretty long distances between major population centres on a north south axis. Its a long narrow country. Berlin-Munich/Cologne, Barcelona-Madrid, LA-San Francisco are all shorter as the crow flies than London to Glasgow. The UK is perfectly suited to highspeed rail from a distance point of view.
High speed yes, but not the even higher speeds than anywhere else HS2 was aiming for. The new Ulm -> Stuggart line is max speed only 250km/h for example. This, or 300km/h would seem to have been a more sensible max speed for HS2
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top