HS2 fare income from OOC

[absolutelymilk]

Once HS2 Phase 1 opens I have done a quick calculation of fare income from Old Oak Common. I think there should be
6tph, of which 3 will be 200m sets and 3 will be 400m sets
The former will have 500 seats and the latter 1,000, so that's 4,500 seats per hour in each direction, 9,000 per hour in both directions.

Let's assume the line is open and running at 6tph for 16 or 17 hours per day, meaning there are 150,000 seats going into or out of OOC. If these are 2/3 full then that's 100,000 passengers per day. West Coast in 2023/24 had 32.8 million passenger journeys, and had £1.035 billion in fare income, i.e. £32 per journey. If each HS2 passenger pays say £40 per journey (I realise the split between off-peak, peak and advances, plus those on railcards or going first class will be quite complicated!!) then that's £4 million per day, or £1.4 billion per year.

Does this maths seem right, and if so (once you include revenue from Great Western and Elizabeth Line passengers) would that make OOC the station with the highest fare income?

 

[Snow1964]

Does this maths seem right, and if so (once you include revenue from Great Western and Elizabeth Line passengers) would that make OOC the station with the highest fare income?

I suspect very small percentage will start at OOC (rather than connect via OOC) so it's ticket office revenue (if it actually gets one) won't be that big compared to many stations.

Probably somewhere like Guildford or Chelmsford selling thousands of season tickets will have higher revenue

 

[AM9]

Once HS2 Phase 1 opens I have done a quick calculation of fare income from Old Oak Common. I think there should be
6tph, of which 3 will be 200m sets and 3 will be 400m sets
The former will have 500 seats and the latter 1,000, so that's 4,500 seats per hour in each direction, 9,000 per hour in both directions.

Let's assume the line is open and running at 6tph for 16 or 17 hours per day, meaning there are 150,000 seats going into or out of OOC. If these are 2/3 full then that's 100,000 passengers per day. West Coast in 2023/24 had 32.8 million passenger journeys, and had £1.035 billion in fare income, i.e. £32 per journey. If each HS2 passenger pays say £40 per journey (I realise the split between off-peak, peak and advances, plus those on railcards or going first class will be quite complicated!!) then that's £4 million per day, or £1.4 billion per year.

Does this maths seem right, and if so (once you include revenue from Great Western and Elizabeth Line passengers) would that make OOC the station with the highest fare income?

Do your 32.8 million passenger journeys include those beginning or ending at Watford Junction, MK, Rugby and Coventry?

 

[absolutelymilk]

Do your 32.8 million passenger journeys include those beginning or ending at Watford Junction, MK, Rugby and Coventry?

That's just from the ORR passenger rail usage dataset, which as you imply, might include a lot of shorter journeys compared to HS2 which is why I increased the average fare from £32 to £40 (although obviously that is still a fairly wild guess!)

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I suspect very small percentage will start at OOC (rather than connect via OOC) so it's ticket office revenue (if it actually gets one) won't be that big compared to many stations.

Probably somewhere like Guildford or Chelmsford selling thousands of season tickets will have higher revenue

Sure, I should clarify I mean will it be the station with the highest value of journeys in the UK?

 

[Simon11]

It may be easier to focus on station usage figures if you want to focus on numbers for OCC, rather than get involved with revenue? With station usage figures provided for all stations, it allows you to easily compare.

I would say that assuming services are 2/3 full is too high. AWC currently gets 24.6 passengers per vehicle at the moment which equates to c50% full across all services. LNER is 31.8. [Source Modern Railways January 2025]

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It remains to be seen how DfT decides the fares policy for HS2.
At one extreme it's just another routeing option for the Any Permitted fares from WCML origins.
At another there may be a high-speed supplement over WCML fares as there is on HS1.
Or it could have a new fare structure specifically for HS2, like Eurostar, with the HS TOC setting fares independently of the ICWC operator (in GBR hands by then).
Take your pick.
There will also need to be a new range of fares based on interchange at OOC (eg to Heathrow or GW/GE destinations).

Avanti was due to run both HS2 and ICWC services initially, but that looks to be a dead duck now.
There might also be a change of government, and fares policy generally, before HS2 opens.

 

[absolutelymilk]

It may be easier to focus on station usage figures if you want to focus on numbers for OCC, rather than get involved with revenue? With station usage figures provided for all stations, it allows you to easily compare.

To be honest, I was thinking more about the impact of HS2 on the finances of the railway overall. However interesting (from my perspective anyway!) to think about the station in particular as well!

I would say that assuming services are 2/3 full is too high. AWC currently gets 24.6 passengers per vehicle at the moment which equates to c50% full across all services. LNER is 31.8. [Source Modern Railways January 2025]

That's interesting - and would take the figure down to roughly a billion pounds per year.