Northern Cancellations - The stations that came out worst

[LNW-GW Joint]

There was a bit of a car crash interview this morning on R4 Today, with Transport SoS Heidi Alexander.
This followed a report today that Manchester Victoria was the worst performer for cancellations, running at 10% for the period Jan-Nov 2024.

Britain's worst major train stations for cancellations named

The latest figures show almost one in 10 trains were cancelled at Manchester Victoria.

www.bbc.co.uk

Manchester Victoria has been the worst of Britain's busiest railway stations for cancellations so far this year.
About one in 10 of 10,506 scheduled stops were cancelled between January and November 2024, according to National Rail figures collected by train data website On Time Trains.
This contributed to the north-west of England being the region with the highest rate of cancelled railway stops across Britain at 6.5%, with 611,047 cancellations.
The government said it was committed to delivering the biggest overhaul of the railways in a generation, bringing services back into public ownership to reinvest in them.

Heidi had no real answer for Northern's performance, considering it is run directly by DfT.
She defended the pay awards without any concessions on working terms and conditions, and said they were "working hard" to improve matters.
She acknowledged that the pay settlement and back pay probably made it less likely that staff would volunteer for rest day working at the moment.
Heidi also seemed to be supporting Avanti's second offer to the RMT over rest day working, and asked the parties to work to resolve the strike threat.
Overall, she seemed less assured than Louise Haigh in the job.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Yes, I have to say I noticed this. You rock up at Victoria and almost nothing is running. Same for Salford Crescent and Ashton.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Comments in the BBC article talk about nationalisation to improve the railways which will obviously make sweet naff all difference to this situation.

As Richard Bowker says on green signals, ideology over substance.

 

[yorksrob]

Nationalisation on its own was never going to be enough.

As I've said many times, they need something eyecatching that has an immediate positive effect on passengers.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Nationalisation on its own was never going to be enough.

As I've said many times, they need something eyecatching that has an immediate positive effect on passengers.

Like what?

 

[yorksrob]

Like what?

Off-peak Friday, National railcard etc. Take your pick.

 

[Krokodil]

Off-peak Friday, National railcard etc. Take your pick.

Nah, it needs to be something that makes trains actually turn up. No point having cheaper fares if there's no service to use them on.

 

[yorksrob]

She defended the pay awards without any concessions on working terms and conditions, and said they were "working hard" to improve matters.

She's probably correct about that. Another year of strikes (which was the alternative) wouldn't have been an improvement.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Dec 2024 ==

Nah, it needs to be something that makes trains actually turn up. No point having cheaper fares if there's no service to use them on.

Put it this way,

Training enough people will take time

Infrastructure will take time

More carriages will take time

A fares sweetener is the only thing that could be done quickly, and it will buy the Government time to be able to point to something nationally while they sort out this regional issue.

 

[Rail Quest]

That BBC article is an interesting read. I really like the graphs for cancellation figures and how it can filter based on region.

The most shocking thing to see is the statistics for the North West. I imagine a lot of this is to do with the dire Sunday working situation across the region, specifically with Northern. Given the Sunday action that Avanti train managers have promised recently, I can imagine the numbers at Preston/Piccadilly/Stockport/Lime St getting worse in the short term.


(Picture is extract from BBC article linked in the OP)

 

[43066]

She's probably correct about that. Another year of strikes (which was the alternative) wouldn't have been an improvement.

Indeed, they had no real alternative. Of course if the last government hadn’t refused to allow talks for so long, the dispute would have been resolved earlier, and the back pay amount smaller.

What’s a little more disappointing is that the DfT/OLR still don’t seem particularly keen to resolve the Sunday issue, and certainly don’t seem to be showing signs of wanting to bring Sundays into the week, or alternatively providing sufficiently generous incentives that the work is sure to be covered. They could easily have made a no strings offer of a better incentive to cover Sundays, pending further negotiations for a permanent solution, but instead just tried to introduce committed Sundays at short notice.

 

[yorksrob]

Indeed, they had no real alternative. Of course if the last government hadn’t refused to allow talks for so long, the dispute would have been resolved earlier, and the back pay amount smaller.

What’s a little more disappointing is that the DfT/OLR still don’t seem particularly keen to resolve the Sunday issue, and certainly don’t seem to be showing signs of wanting to bring Sundays into the week. They could easily have made a no strings offer of a better incentive to cover Sundays, pending further negotiations for a permanent solution, but instead again just tried to introduce committed Sundays.

Yes, they should bite the bullet and get it done with.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Another admission was that DfT did not have a full understanding of the rest-day agreements across the TOCs.
Collecting this data was a work in progress at the moment.

 

[43066]

Another admission was that DfT did not have a full understanding of the rest-day agreements across the TOCs.
Collecting this data was a work in progress at the moment.

That’s just gross incompetence, and beggars belief really.

 

[TUC]

Nah, it needs to be something that makes trains actually turn up. No point having cheaper fares if there's no service to use them on.

Exactly so. Fix the real issues. Make some tough decisions.

 

[Tetchytyke]

She defended the pay awards without any concessions on working terms and conditions, and said they were "working hard" to improve matters.

She's right. Sundays are heavily disrupted due to rest day working but if a settlement hadn't been reached every day would have been heavily disrupted due to strikes.

As I've said many times, they need something eyecatching that has an immediate positive effect on passengers.

There's no point doing much in the way of fares promotion until the rest day working is sorted, tbh. "Here's a cheap ticket but there are no trains" just looks like you're rubbing people's faces in it.

I would remove the evening peak restrictions on Northern tickets, though, as it tends to be the late evenings on weekdays which are also badly affected. Making people to wait until 6.30pm, when the staff issues start to really appear, is just antagonistic at this stage.

If Northern had more staff they'd have the flexibility to offer things like time off in lieu for staff working Sundays, as clearly money by itself isn't a suitable inducement due to marginal tax rates. But they don't, so they can't.

 

[43066]

Exactly so. Fix the real issues. Make some tough decisions.

There's no point doing much in the way of fares promotion until the rest day working is sorted, tbh. "Here's a cheap ticket but there are no trains" just looks like you're rubbing people's faces in it.

Which really means ponying up some cash, and either incentivising the staff better, or bringing Sundays into the week (ideally both, with the first as a quick fix, the second a long term aim).

I find it hard to believe the current mess of mass cancellations and paying out for delay repay, RRB provision etc. is cheaper than doing the above, and that’s before considering any positive impact on revenue from a more reliable weekend service. The “deal” recently offered to guards and rejected wouldn’t have cost any more if it was offered on a no-strings basis.

But if the DfT are so asleep at the wheel that they don’t even understand the rest day arrangements at the TOCs they oversee, there’s no reason to suppose they would make sensible or effective decisions.

 

[AndrewE]

Put it this way,
/
More carriages will take time
/

I disagree. Lots of serviceable rolling stock is kicking around simply because it has been replaced by other stock and the Treasury won't allow it to be used (i.e. hired.)
A pan-British Railway taskforce could be given the job of increasing capacity on currently-overcrowded lines as quickly as possible, recognising that people on trains are people not in cars. Fleets might have to be temporarily reshuffled or returned to previous use (to avoid traction knowledge problems)

(Just an hour ago an elderly couple were telling me that they nearly got left behind on their trip to Bournemouth when a 4-car Voyager rolled up at Stafford...)

 

[yorksrob]

There's no point doing much in the way of fares promotion until the rest day working is sorted, tbh. "Here's a cheap ticket but there are no trains" just looks like you're rubbing people's faces in it.

I would remove the evening peak restrictions on Northern tickets, though, as it tends to be the late evenings on weekdays which are also badly affected. Making people to wait until 6.30pm, when the staff issues start to really appear, is just antagonistic at this stage.

If Northern had more staff they'd have the flexibility to offer things like time off in lieu for staff working Sundays, as clearly money by itself isn't a suitable inducement due to marginal tax rates. But they don't, so they can't.

There's a very large cohort of rail travellers outside of the North west though, who could help to build up a positive narrative politically (something this government needs).

But as you say, scrapping evening peak in the North West could be a start.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Dec 2024 ==

I disagree. Lots of serviceable rolling stock is kicking around simply because it has been replaced by other stock and the Treasury won't allow it to be used (i.e. hired.)
A pan-British Railway taskforce could be given the job of increasing capacity on currently-overcrowded lines as quickly as possible, recognising that people on trains are people not in cars. Fleets might have to be temporarily reshuffled or returned to previous use (to avoid traction knowledge at Stafford...)

I was under the impression that the spare rolling stock was mostly the wrong traction (electric rather than diesel) - but I agree totally - where there is suitable stock, it should be used.

Thing is, you need to think of it from a political point of view. If I were the Government, improving this individual or that individual rail service is quite difficult to build into a country wide positive political message (the Conservatives policy of "reversing Beeching" was an astute example of how local improvements could be turned into a positive political narrative, but it is quite hard).

A nationwide fares improvement gets you that quite quickly.

 

[Krokodil]

I was under the impression that the spare rolling stock was mostly the wrong traction (electric rather than diesel)

Less helpful for Northern, but the Voyagers Avanti have freed up should all have gone straight to XC. Instead two sat off lease for ages before going to a private operator, while a number (around a dozen?) are now stored with no future.

 

[yorksrob]

Less helpful for Northern, but the Voyagers Avanti have freed up should all have gone straight to XC. Instead two sat off lease for ages before going to a private operator, while a number (around a dozen?) are now stored with no future.

Agree 100%.

Illustrates the Whitehall element behind a lot of this.

 

[AndrewE]

Less helpful for Northern, but the Voyagers Avanti have freed up should all have gone straight to XC. Instead two sat off lease for ages before going to a private operator, while a number (around a dozen?) are now stored with no future.

and Class 350 units have gone off lease from LNR when the Birmingham Liverpool services are still regularly 4-cars only.

As I said, a task force could have the remit to match capacity to demand. Bean-counters not welcome!

 

[swt_passenger]

Less helpful for Northern, but the Voyagers Avanti have freed up should all have gone straight to XC. Instead two sat off lease for ages before going to a private operator, while a number (around a dozen?) are now stored with no future.

It’s 12 of 20 going to XC, the 2 with GC will eventually be returned increasing the stored number to 8. Can’t see them being useful to Northern in any case.

 

[Carlisle]

Illustrates the Whitehall element behind a lot of this.

Not really, as there aren’t a plethora of profitable private rail operators with significant amounts of spare cash to immediately bring all this spare stock into service. It’d be great if there was.

 

[yorksrob]

Not really, as there aren’t a plethora of profitable private rail operators with significant amounts of spare cash to immediately bring all this spare stock into service. It’d be great if there was.

But a lot of this stock would have been paid off years ago, were it not for Whitehall. Plus Whitehall micromanage even the private contracts anyway.

 

[Tetchytyke]

There's a very large cohort of rail travellers outside of the North west though, who could help to build up a positive narrative politically (something this government needs).

Northern's staffing issues are mostly in the north west, but not exclusively- Sheffield seems to be having trouble too.

I was under the impression that the spare rolling stock was mostly the wrong traction (electric rather than diesel) - but I agree totally - where there is suitable stock, it should be used.

There isn't much spare stock. I still maintain it was a mistake for DfT to force Northern to hand the 319/321/322 back without adequate replacements, as that's causing some of the crowding issues in Leeds and the north west. But the real shortage is in diesel stock, and there isn't much of that about. Maybe the 769s GWR weren't allowed to use could head north, but that's about it, and it's not like the 769s are the most reliable of trains anyway.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Dec 2024 ==

Cant see them being useful to Northern in any case.

You say that, but when the 180s were on lease with East Coast but sitting unused they were sub-leased to Northern for use in the north west. If there's a will there's a way...

 

[yorksrob]

Northern's staffing issues are mostly in the north west, but not exclusively- Sheffield seems to be having trouble too.

There isn't much spare stock. I still maintain it was a mistake for DfT to force Northern to hand the 319/321/322 back without adequate replacements, as that's causing some of the crowding issues in Leeds and the north west. But the real shortage is in diesel stock, and there isn't much of that about. Maybe the 769s GWR weren't allowed to use could head north, but that's about it, and it's not like the 769s are the most reliable of trains anyway.

Oh, we're singing from the same hymn sheet. Add to those the 153's which were so easily able to strengthen services.

Unfortunately a lot of damage has already been done in terms of rolling stock mismanagement, hence why a nationwide fares innovation is needed politically.

 

[Krokodil]

It’s 12 of 20 going to XC, the 2 with GC will eventually be returned increasing the stored number to 8. Can’t see them being useful to Northern in any case.

So 18 Voyagers (plus however many Meridians soon) that could be very useful to XC will be sat in warm storage somewhere. Alternatively if you really need Northern to benefit, you could send them to TPE to replace 185s which can be cascaded to Northern, or they could displace the XC Turbostars which could be cascaded to Northern. Or they could be sent to Scotland to replace the HSTs. There are many options which are better than storing the things - though obviously not as good as strategically stringing up some knitting and ordering some purpose-built stock.

 

[YorkshireBear]

So 18 Voyagers (plus however many Meridians soon) that could be very useful to XC will be sat in warm storage somewhere. Alternatively if you really need Northern to benefit, you could send them to TPE to replace 185s which can be cascaded to Northern, or they could displace the XC Turbostars which could be cascaded to Northern. Or they could be sent to Scotland to replace the HSTs. There are many options which are better than storing the things - though obviously not as good as strategically stringing up some knitting and ordering some purpose-built stock.

No 12 have gone to XC or are in the process of doing so. 6 in warm storage (yes still bad but... It's only 33% as bad!)

 

[nr758123]

There was a bit of a car crash interview this morning on R4 Today, with Transport SoS Heidi Alexander.
This followed a report today that Manchester Victoria was the worst performer for cancellations, running at 10% for the period Jan-Nov 2024.

The interviewer stated that the wage increases were above inflation. She should have challenged this.

The premise of the interviewer seemed to be that the government needed to be nastier to the unions. A confrontational approach to negotiations was tried by the last government, and that turned out badly. Maybe trying to establish a more constructive and less adversarial relationship with the unions will get a better outcome.

I really like the graphs for cancellation figures and how it can filter based on region.

Do they include P-coded cancellations?

 

[Krokodil]

You say that, but when the 180s were on lease with East Coast but sitting unused they were sub-leased to Northern for use in the north west. If there's a will there's a way...

Aren't there some of those in store? I'm sure that there's a route they could be used on to free up some 195s. Leeds-Chester?

No 12 have gone to XC or are in the process of doing so. 6 in warm storage (yes still bad but... It's only 33% as bad!)

Whoops. In that case there's even less reason not to send them to XC.

The interviewer stated that the wage increases were above inflation. She should have challenged this.

Is there a link to the interview anywhere? I feel like writing to the BBC on the grounds of factual accuracy (or lack of)