Hitachi Factory - First Group order 14 new trains with options for 13 more

[anthony263]

I think on these applications they often look for a potentially friendly MP, and add their town to the list. Always helps if you have a campaigning MP on your side!

Grabd union wanted the parkway station on the SDL by felindre. I do thinkit would have done well as parkway at Swansea high street is a nightmare and there's a lot of towns north of Swansea who would use it

 

[yorkie]

Just a gentle reminder this thread is to discuss the announcement described in the opening post.

If anyone wants to discuss anything else, you are very welcome to create a new thread (if there isn't one already).

 

[norbitonflyer]

After 92046 there were the extra batches of locos for Eurotunnel. Those would be the last.

Does Class 18 count?

 

[HSTEd]

Does Class 18 count?

I think, given their limited capabilities and lack of obvious rail customers, that those are covered by "handfuls of industrial locomotives".

To return to the topic, I just worry that this endless stream of last minute orders to avoid bad headlines is a terrible way to run a railway.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I think, given their limited capabilities and lack of obvious rail customers, that those are covered by "handfuls of industrial locomotives".

To return to the topic, I just worry that this endless stream of last minute orders to avoid bad headlines is a terrible way to run a railway.

Indeed. And how long was the stay of execution for York ?.

 

[Kettledrum]

Yet another train order placed, not because we actually want the trains, but because the government is terrified of bad headlines about a plant closure.

So we will continue to have a vast oversupply in railway vehicle construction capacity and continue to pay over the odds for new trains as a result.

Try telling that to passengers on the Cross country routes, where there is no evidence of the "vast over supply" and the passengers there do desperately want new trains but aren't getting any.

 

[Indigo Soup]

Try telling that to passengers on the Cross country routes, where there is no evidence of the "vast over supply" and the passengers there do desperately want new trains but aren't getting any.

It's perfectly possible for train operators not to be buying enough trains to keep the factories in work, and simultaneously not to have enough trains to meet passenger demand.

This arises, of course, because they have no money with which to buy trains.

 

[Yew]

I think it is fanciful to expect that enough export orders can be obtained reliably to materially impact the economics of the plants.
If they manage to win a few, great, but if the railway vehicle manufacturing industry cannot be supported by domestic orders, it is bad for the railway and bad for Britain.

Plenty of other countries have strong export markets. It seems unreasonable to suggest that for some magic reason, we would be incapable.

 

[43096]

Plenty of other countries have strong export markets. It seems unreasonable to suggest that for some magic reason, we would be incapable.

It’s not unreasonable at all. Our loading gauge is a major barrier to it - by the nature of what the plants here assemble for their core market, anything for elsewhere is going to be substantially different. That’s before you add in the stupidity of Brexit making exports generally more uncompetitive.

 

[absolutelymilk]

Try telling that to passengers on the Cross country routes, where there is no evidence of the "vast over supply" and the passengers there do desperately want new trains but aren't getting any.

There are spare class 221s aren't there (and soon class 222s?)? It's just XC hasn't been authorized to lease them

 

[HSTEd]

Try telling that to passengers on the Cross country routes, where there is no evidence of the "vast over supply" and the passengers there do desperately want new trains but aren't getting any.

Whether the capacity is being used or not is a different question.
The fact is we have manufacturing capacity vastly in excess of the reasonable demand level, and the money spend artificially sustaining this is not being spent to actually obtain trains

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Dec 2024 ==

Plenty of other countries have strong export markets. It seems unreasonable to suggest that for some magic reason, we would be incapable.

The British rail industry has been trying to find export success for several decades and has repeatedly failed.

Indeed, the export situation has only deteriorated over the last few decades.

At some point we have to admit the truth and stop throwing good money after bad, in pursuit of the halcyon past.

 

[Indigo Soup]

At some point we have to admit the truth and stop throwing good money after bad, in pursuit of the halcyon past.

This isn't unique to trains, for that matter.

Fact of the matter is, the days when a handful of (mostly American and European) companies could dominate the manufacture of complex equipment are long gone. Most countries that can afford trains - but also things like aircraft, road vehicles, ships, machine tools, and so forth - expect to build them locally. For exactly the same reasons that we expect that in the UK. And they mostly have the money to be able to afford to do so.

All of which is to say, even a successful industry is going to see dwindling numbers of export orders. There might be small quantities here and there up for grabs, but they're always going to be a nice bonus compared to domestic orders.

After all, why would (say) the Nigerian State Railways buy more trains from Derby than the UK rail industry does?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Fact of the matter is, the days when a handful of (mostly American and European) companies could dominate the manufacture of complex equipment are long gone. Most countries that can afford trains - but also things like aircraft, road vehicles, ships, machine tools, and so forth - expect to build them locally. For exactly the same reasons that we expect that in the UK. And they mostly have the money to be able to afford to do so.

All of which is to say, even a successful industry is going to see dwindling numbers of export orders. There might be small quantities here and there up for grabs, but they're always going to be a nice bonus compared to domestic orders.

Globally, there are 2-3 aircraft manufacturers (Boeing, Airbus, Embraer) and engine makers (GE/Snecma, P&W, RR).
Many significant countries do not build aircraft or engines (except maybe under licence).
Some countries have quite large component specialisms, with the UK having wings, engines and landing gear instead of complete aircraft.
Airbus uses some Boeing components, and Boeing uses some Airbus components.

Rail equipment is going the same way because the technological advances require massive investment to keep up with the competition.
Assembly can be devolved locally, but design is centralised with Siemens, Alstom and Hitachi currently dominating design.
Again, other companies can offer component specialisms, including brakes, power equipment and interiors, which is where the UK is now.
CAF EMUs from Spain (or Newport) come with Austrian traction packages.

Nationalism doesn't work when Hitachi AT300 bi-modes are powered by MTU generator packs made in Germany by a Rolls Royce company, and serviced in Derby.
The rail supply chain is global (and I've not even mentioned China).

 

[Indigo Soup]

Rail equipment is going the same way because the technological advances require massive investment to keep up with the competition.
Assembly can be devolved locally, but design is centralised with Siemens, Alstom and Hitachi currently dominating design.

Yep - and that means that there's no point trying to do assembly in the UK for export to wherever. All the complex bits will be done in the same places anyway, and the importer will want do do the assembly locally.

 

[RailWonderer]

Yep - and that means that there's no point trying to do assembly in the UK for export to wherever. All the complex bits will be done in the same places anyway, and the importer will want do do the assembly locally.

Yes, but only for larger order numbers. Many countries order stock assembled abroad but only for smaller bespoke orders of trains like the Stadler UK range which was ordered and assembled abroad because a) order books were full during a boom of new rolling stock purchases and b) no domestic manufacturer could meet the spec required. Some manufacturers can still bank on a unique product like Stadler and have this advantage.

On the other hand no UK factory makes a train type nobody else abroad can make so while we might be able to ship some components abroad, the lack of a unique modular rail platform and the restrictive loading gauge makes export building very unlikely.

 

[AndrewP]

This is good news

Let's hope that the 'social value' aspect within public procurement can be used to include UK manufacture (and / or content) going forward

Irrespective of political preference or the rationale behind it, it is always good when a senior politician (of any party) puts their weight behind a major UK facility

 

[norbitonflyer]

Yes, it’s a drop in the ocean really.

No, it reads to me ordering more 5 car trains, as in “14 x 5 car”. I suppose therefore that any lengthening of existing HT or Lumo services will be by running them in pairs.

This suggests the new trains will be 802s and 803s, to be compatible with the existing stock, although some of the 802s may be battery rather than diesel bimodes (TPE have already demonstrated that a battery and diesel combination is possible in the same unit, never mind the same train)

 

[nwales58]

Yes, but only for larger order numbers.

The Hitachi IEP orders come to about 1500 vehicles, about 12 variants spread over many orders with bespoke features in each.

The ICE-4 program is a similar number of vehicles, 2-3 variants (12/13 coach are near-identical), one customer, one framework contract with pull-down orders.

The GB approach probably costs quite a bit more per vehicle and does not make for predictable production lines. Britain: the railway that likes to pay more for its trains.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

So we will continue to have a vast oversupply in railway vehicle construction capacity and continue to pay over the odds for new trains as a result.

I don't think that logic quite holds. An over-supply would normally lead to LOWER prices as suppliers struggle to get orders.

 

[HSTEd]

I don't think that logic quite holds. An over-supply would normally lead to LOWER prices as suppliers struggle to get orders.

In the absence of rent-seeking behaviour, yes.

But the reality is that train manufacturers have realised that they can almost obtain orders on demand, by threatening to close the plant unless a suitably expensive order is placed

 

[43096]

But the reality is that train manufacturers have realised that they can almost obtain orders on demand, by threatening to close the plant unless a suitably expensive order is placed

Which also means that the buyer will place small orders with the proverbial gun pointed at their head, which of course is the most expensive way of buying them.

 

[LYuen]

I don't think that logic quite holds. An over-supply would normally lead to LOWER prices as suppliers struggle to get orders.

The precondition doesn't stand though. Looking at the cramped and ageing trains in many operators, I can also say rolling stock is under-supplied by miles.

The reality is the new trains aren't provided to operators which their passengers are begging for them, because improving services there don't have significant marginal gains.
(e.g. more people can be seated instead of standing doesn't increase the revenue on the balance book)
While business and the government are happy to invest if there is a potential to get additional revenue, which are usually the new lines or higher yield services.

It is a form of economic inequality.

 

[Class 170101]

Remmeber though more carriages still equal growth including more standing its just that the DfT may not want standing to end in the meantime so the standstill option of do nothing is taken.

 

[baza585]

This is good news

Let's hope that the 'social value' aspect within public procurement can be used to include UK manufacture (and / or content) going forward

Irrespective of political preference or the rationale behind it, it is always good when a senior politician (of any party) puts their weight behind a major UK facility

Whilst I agree this is good news, I can't actually see that the Government has done anything to try to claim credit for, in this commercial deal between First and Hitachi. Am I missing something?

 

[Chester1]

In the absence of rent-seeking behaviour, yes.

But the reality is that train manufacturers have realised that they can almost obtain orders on demand, by threatening to close the plant unless a suitably expensive order is placed

This order has nothing to do with the government though. If push came to shove then the Labour government is probably willing to accept Newton Aycliffe closing. Keir Starmer was happy to take credit for a private sector order but wasn't willing to do what you describe.

 

[HSTEd]

This order has nothing to do with the government though. If push came to shove then the Labour government is probably willing to accept Newton Aycliffe closing. Keir Starmer was happy to take credit for a private sector order but wasn't willing to do what you describe.

There is precious little on the railway that has nothing to do with the government.
As it is, Open Access Operators are nominally "independent", but there continued existence is entirely dependent on the continuation of current policies. For example continuing to set access charges far below cost recovery or by setting conditions on access contracts.

That gives the government enormous leverage over them.

 

[jamiestuart314]

Does anyone know when these are expected? I’m assuming it will be a mix of 802s and 803s instead of a new 80x variant?

Was speaking to a Lumo Ambassador (I think!) and he said they were going to be based on the 810s and be numbered as 808s (and tilt, which I dont think will happen at all!), But I've got no idea whether this is acctually true or not

 

[43096]

Was speaking to a Lumo Ambassador (I think!) and he said they were going to be based on the 810s and be numbered as 808s (and tilt, which I dont think will happen at all!), But I've got no idea whether this is acctually true or not

The fact he even mentioned tilt is a good indicator of the reliability of the gen.

 

[dk1]

Was speaking to a Lumo Ambassador (I think!) and he said they were going to be based on the 810s and be numbered as 808s (and tilt, which I dont think will happen at all!), But I've got no idea whether this is acctually true or not

I’m no expert but I’m almost certain that Hitachi have no trains with tilt capability in any country.

 

[Clarence Yard]

Was speaking to a Lumo Ambassador (I think!) and he said they were going to be based on the 810s and be numbered as 808s (and tilt, which I dont think will happen at all!), But I've got no idea whether this is acctually true or not

808 is correct (the class number has now been issued) but tilt is not. They will (currently) be BEMU’s.