I'm not that impressed by business plans as they seem to reflect the prejudices of their authors, with costs and benefits chosen to make the desired case. I'm surprised that this was even attempted for the ND line as there is no agreed understanding as yet of the acceptability or otherwise of more third rail. The ND line is probably always going to be a railway basket case; non-London, serving wayside stations with a few medium sized towns, without the speed, heavy patronage, high fares or long distance that justify railways economically. Historically, post-steam, it had those most penitential of units, the Tadpoles, 1.5 narrow ex-Hastings cars with an EPB DTSO locked out of use! The present Turbos are a vast improvement but can struggle with peak flows (school children) and airport passengers and luggage. If there is a lack of capacity then a longer consist is called for rather than a more frequent (and costly) service. One would hope that future EMU builders would provide universal passive battery provision (including in software) so that common user stock could fill in for juice-less gaps. That way, the choice of electrification could be made later on the basis of experience of cost and operation. My hunch is that only the Reading - Guildford section would be sparked as it seems to be much more densely inhabited and so heavily used, with the batteries in use for the rural section after Shalford Jn.
Electrification should be an engineering not a theological decision.
WAO