Doncaster Sheffield Airport to reopen?

[AlastairFraser]

Apprenticeship wages are set by the government so there’s no saving there either.

Isn't there some leeway in salaries? I know most apprenticeships in the aerospace industries aren't at the lower end of scale, but there is probably scope for a little bit less than e.g. BAE in Lancs.

 

[mpthomson]

Isn't there some leeway in salaries? I know most apprenticeships in the aerospace industries aren't at the lower end of scale, but there is probably scope for a little bit less than e.g. BAE in Lancs.

No, there’s a minimum that’s set by the government. Offering lower wages just gets lower quality candidates as the good ones just go and work somewhere that offers more. The same applies for any skilled job in reality.

BAe doesn’t offer less than average apprenticeships either.

 

[AlastairFraser]

No, there’s a minimum that’s set by the government. Offering lower wages just gets lower quality candidates as the good ones just go and work somewhere that offers more. The same applies for any skilled job in reality.

BAe doesn’t offer less than average apprenticeships either.

I think there is some sort of misunderstanding. I know there is a separate apprenticeships min wage, but there are a lot of apprenticeships paid significantly more.

Paying a salary in between apprenticeship min wage and the very highly paid apprenticeships would be a better plan IMHO, and this is easier in a poorer region where higher paid jobs are harder to find.

The reason I used BAe as an example was because they have some of the highest paid apprenticeships in the country at one end, but then there are a lot lower paid apprenticeships at the other end, so you could offer something in the middle.

 

[mpthomson]

I think there is some sort of misunderstanding. I know there is a separate apprenticeships min wage, but there are a lot of apprenticeships paid significantly more.

Paying a salary in between apprenticeship min wage and the very highly paid apprenticeships would be a better plan IMHO, and this is easier in a poorer region where higher paid jobs are harder to find.

The reason I used BAe as an example was because they have some of the highest paid apprenticeships in the country at one end, but then there are a lot lower paid apprenticeships at the other end, so you could offer something in the middle.

To repeat, if you want decent candidates for any role you don’t offer lower wages, for any business in any sector.

This is especially true for aerospace jobs which need the best engineering apprentices which is why they offer good T&C for these roles. The same goes for any aerospace business. If you want the best then you pay for them.

 

[AlastairFraser]

To repeat, if you want decent candidates for any role you don’t offer lower wages, for any business in any sector.

This is especially true for aerospace jobs which need the best engineering apprentices which is why they offer good T&C for these roles. The same goes for any aerospace business. If you want the best then you pay for them.

Of course it's desirable to get the best candidates, but a lot of the best candidates will be applying to places like e.g. BAe or Airbus, and startups have limited resources, so they may be only able to afford a few experienced aerospace professionals to train a bunch of aerospace apprentices.

 

[pug1]

I think we need to look at the original suggestion - this being that the airport could look at a manufacturing start up to base themselves at the airport.

Other than Hybrid Air Vehicles who have apparently agreed to base in South Yorkshire but at a location away from DSA, aren’t we just trying to justify the airports existence again based on something that doesn’t actually exist?

Already mentioned that BAE SYSTEMS had an academy at the DSA site in the early days, but they have since moved to the RJ Mitchell Academy at Humberside Airport where apprentices learn their trade - I understand Ryanair have started sending some of their engineering apprentices there now too.

Apparently Ed Milliband has been telling people that Boeing are going to base at DSA and have a SAF research facility on the site. However much of what Boeing does in an R&D sense does not require a runway. Most (if not all?) of their air testing is done over in the states. Indeed as has been pointed out their R&D facility in Sheffield is actually on what was the runway of Sheffield City Airport.

I take the point about lower costs in expected wages and probably other benefits such as regional development grants and start up subsidies, but the Full Business Plan (at least the bit that’s available to the public) does not have any tangibles in terms of the business they hope to attract. You can’t build a business plan that’s predicated on industries that don’t really exist, but that’s what they appear to have done here and it’s worrying to say the least.

 

[westv]

We would consider Humberside if travelling to Mallorca but I just couldnt justify the £1,200 or so for two + baggage that TUI want to charge.

 

[pug1]

We would consider Humberside if travelling to Mallorca but I just couldnt justify the £1,200 or so for two + baggage that TUI want to charge.

Load factors were 100% in some months of this year, so clearly people are prepared to pay if that’s what it costs. Good luck getting a cheap deal with Jet2, I paid more than 1200 for two to fly from Manchester and that was with discount applied. You won’t get it any cheaper if DSA reopens and TUI go back in either, and if it’s that cheap it means the flights aren’t selling well.

I remember when Ryanair announced their HUY-ALC route in 2011, comments in the local rag website were overwhelmingly negative - stating that Humberside was too expensive to fly from etc. they literally said this on an article that Ryanair, an ultra low cost airline, were running flights from Humberside with a baseline fare of something like £21.00!! You can’t make it up sometimes. Even then the route was performing better than the same route from DSA and it was only pulled because of the withdrawal of aircraft from ALC due to a dispute over airbridge costs.

Often the case that people will travel to save a few quid on the price of a ticket, these same people are the ones wanting DSA to reopen yet complained that when it was open it was too expensive to fly from. It would be no different if it does reopen! Can be crazy making at times.

 

[westv]

Load factors were 100% in some months of this year, so clearly people are prepared to pay if that’s what it costs. Good luck getting a cheap deal with Jet2, I paid more than 1200 for two to fly from Manchester and that was with discount applied. You won’t get it any cheaper if DSA reopens and TUI go back in either, and if it’s that cheap it means the flights aren’t selling well.

Jet2 flight from LBA at similar date (early May 25) is currently £537 for two + baggage. Both flights are at the weekend.
I do wonder where the extra cost comes from. Yes, partly demand I guess but what else? Is Humberside a very expensive airport for TUI to use?

 

[pug1]

Jet2 flight from LBA at similar date (early May 25) is currently £537 for two + baggage. Both flights are at the weekend.
I do wonder where the extra cost comes from. Yes, partly demand I guess but what else? Is Humberside a very expensive airport for TUI to use?

Are you talking about flight only? If so that’s completely different because TUI are primarily a package operator (as are Jet2, but their business model means they still like to fill their seats with seat only), so you will find that seats are more expensive with TUI owing to the fact they have obligations to fill beds at hotels that they own so selling seat only could result in a loss.

Shame that Ryanair couldn’t be convinced to open a base at Humberside but with DSA being so close it probably wasn’t in their or Humbersides interests to do so. I used the HUY-ALC and it had great flight times and was good value for money. Will never happen now for as long as DSA threatens to reopen, but also because Humberside is one of only three airports in the U.K. open to passenger flights that does not have controlled airspace (NQY and EXT being the other two, EXT is in the process of applying for Class D).

A sorry state of affairs and something I think our local leaders and Humberside Airport itself should be talking about!

 

[westv]

Are you talking about flight only? If so that’s completely different because TUI are primarily a package operator (as are Jet2, but their business model means they still like to fill their seats with seat only), so you will find that seats are more expensive with TUI owing to the fact they have obligations to fill beds at hotels that they own so selling seat only could result in a loss.

Both are flight only.
The comment about obligations does make sense. I see that TUI also charge around £1,200 from EMA around the same date.

 

[pug1]

Both are flight only.
The comment about obligations does make sense. I see that TUI also charge around £1,200 from EMA around the same date.

Things are changing, TUI have started taking seats on Ryanair flights. This may increase in volume as it provides greater flexibility but also ensures the hotel beds are getting filled.

Back when Humberside was a lot busier Thomson and other Tour Operators used names like Futura, Spanair, Air Europa, Iberworld amongst others most to the past, mixed in with a few w patterns on their own aircraft (including 767 equipment!), so seat only was a secondary thought if it was even considered at all. MAG wanted to maintain this, after seeing the struggles MME had when Bmibaby went in, decimated the IT Charter offering then pulled out, they were cautious not to let that happen. Unfortunately the credit crunch and ensuing financial crash saw to it that tour operators went to the wall and the remaining ones consolidated. So Humbersides charter offering was vastly reduced and tailed off further in the early 2010’s. Next year as things stand it will have just four weekly flights in the summer - TUI to PMI 2 x weekly and BOJ 2 x weekly with Balkan Holidays. Of course there is also a weekly Saturday flight to JER. In 2006 there were something like 30 flights per week, even in Winter 5 weekly flights would be a disappointing offering back then.

The negative impact DSA had on Humbersides leisure offering must not be underestimated. Had DSA never opened its safe to believe that Humberside would now be handling far more passengers, have a base from at least one leisure airline and possibly even a low cost carrier offering choice, and crucially would still have developed the core non passenger and offshore support business that ensures profitability.

Such a shame, because of DSA we have effectively lost two airports. This was predicted to happen, the fact that the local authority are pushing on with reopening it in spite of the lack of viability due to an already saturated market just rubs salt in the wounds of anyone who has been around long enough to know the full story.

 

[pug1]

Expect some small news on Friday being dressed up as big news and a ‘massive achievement’ by the usual suspects. 2Excel, who have retained their operational HQ on the site since closure, have agreed with Donny Council (and presumably their own insurers!) that they will operate some pre-planned, pre-arranged flights into and out of DSA on an ad/hoc basis. This will be an unlicensed airfield and the x’s every 1000ft on the runway have been removed leaving only one x at each end - denoting that the airport has moved from permanent closure to temporary. Other operators have been warned not to attempt to land.

This is not news, 2Excel made it clear once the lease had been agreed that they were in discussions with the council to resume limited flying operations from the airfield. Nevertheless we will no doubt see the full lot out in force for the photo op.

Unless the yet to be named winning bidder is announced in conjunction with this, then it is yet another smoke screen by toy town who now have an airport to play with. Does it mean the airport is on the road to reopening? Possibly, but nothing has been announced with regards to the operator, no funding released and no details of any private sector backing or whether the council have agreed to cover all losses incurred due to their optimistic 5 year break even projections.

In other news, Jet2 CEO Steve Heapy was quoted in response to a direct questions about Jet2 that he notes there is new money to be invested and he hopes it works this time ‘for the region’ but did caution that the previous operators failed to create a viable business. He said he would be meeting with them soon, but putting this into context he will meet with all U.K. airports and he will not decide to fly from all of them.

This may drag on for quite some time.

 

[pug1]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6790bdce43f931eea1a34d9c/_____Report_on_the_proposed_subsidy_to_FlyDoncaster_Limited_by_City_of_Doncaster_Council_.pdf

The Subsidy Advice Unit report published today in response to City of Doncaster Council proposal to subsidise the reopening and operation of DSA on economic grounds.

Safe to say quite open ended, reading between the lines whilst they don’t say it, it suggests to me that competitors may have grounds for legal challenges.

Not sure how others interpret it?

 

[thejuggler]

I saw some of Newsnight last night and the Telegraph journalist (with 30 years exeperience, so an expert in everything), calmly suggested DSA was the answer to the airport expansion problems of the south east. Thereby proving he probably isn't an expert in aviation.

 

[mpthomson]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6790bdce43f931eea1a34d9c/_____Report_on_the_proposed_subsidy_to_FlyDoncaster_Limited_by_City_of_Doncaster_Council_.pdf

The Subsidy Advice Unit report published today in response to City of Doncaster Council proposal to subsidise the reopening and operation of DSA on economic grounds.

Safe to say quite open ended, reading between the lines whilst they don’t say it, it suggests to me that competitors may have grounds for legal challenges.

Not sure how others interpret it?

Some points;

1. The report clearly sees the passenger numbers the Council has provided as overly optimistic and/or un-evidenced in terms of strategy or interest from airlines, resulting in higher subsidy payments needing to be made for an open ended period when numbers don't reach the target figures.
2. Deferring the rent for 10yrs allows the council to overstate financial performance for public consumption in the earlier years and also suggests a lack of confidence from the council in its own profitability timescale
3. The rest of exec summary in 1.6 is basically saying that the proposal hasn't been thought through properly.
4. There are two different Primary Objectives in the Council's proposal which contradict each other
5. The review also wants the Council to back up its claims that 'uncontested' catchment populations (in reality a very small number of people) will produce a significant proportion of revenue, along with being sceptical about the amount of traffic that would transfer to DSA other than for Eastern Europe.
6. The Council has considered competition more widely.
7. Overall the review feels that there isn't enough evidence provided to back up the Council's claims.

It's not entirely -ve, but there are some serious gaps clearly, and it doesn't look as though the submission was anything like robust enough. And yes, it does suggest that competitors may be able to challenge.

 

[BrianW]

Some points;

1. The report clearly sees the passenger numbers the Council has provided as overly optimistic and/or un-evidenced in terms of strategy or interest from airlines, resulting in higher subsidy payments needing to be made for an open ended period when numbers don't reach the target figures.
2. Deferring the rent for 10yrs allows the council to overstate financial performance for public consumption in the earlier years and also suggests a lack of confidence from the council in its own profitability timescale
3. The rest of exec summary in 1.6 is basically saying that the proposal hasn't been thought through properly.
4. There are two different Primary Objectives in the Council's proposal which contradict each other
5. The review also wants the Council to back up its claims that 'uncontested' catchment populations (in reality a very small number of people) will produce a significant proportion of revenue, along with being sceptical about the amount of traffic that would transfer to DSA other than for Eastern Europe.
6. The Council has considered competition more widely.
7. Overall the review feels that there isn't enough evidence provided to back up the Council's claims.

It's not entirely -ve, but there are some serious gaps clearly, and it doesn't look as though the submission was anything like robust enough. And yes, it does suggest that competitors may be able to challenge.

Echoes my reading; thank you for saving me keystrokes!!
I felt the Council's submission was very much an example of optimism and confirmation biases; very amateur.

Perhaps with the Chancellor desperate to find opportunities for growth, DSA will be promoted as part of 'the answer', an alternative to Heathrow expansion. Will she have the support of local MPs including Edstone Miliband, the current Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change?

 

[mpthomson]

Echoes my reading; thank you for saving me keystrokes!!
I felt the Council's submission was very much an example of optimism and confirmation biases; very amateur.

Perhaps with the Chancellor desperate to find opportunities for growth, DSA will be promoted as part of 'the answer', an alternative to Heathrow expansion. Will she have the support of local MPs including Edstone Miliband, the current Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change?

The SAU has worded their response very diplomatically I think.

I think Rachael from Accounts is now firmly off Ed’s Christmas card list after the events and statements of the last couple of days.

 

[pug1]

Thanks for your interpretations. Some of the ‘Save DSA’ groups on social media have decided to gloss over the less than positive connotations within and instead see it as another step towards reopening.

The mayor Rod Jones has been suggesting that the SAU report was merely a box ticking exercise whilst going through the motions in the process of reopening. However, judging by comments on various news articles it seems the public feel a bit misled, some have incorrectly interpreted the news as no operators being interested. This is untrue, they do apparently have an interested operator, but as we have discussed previously on here, the operator they have supposedly chosen will have no financial risk and will purely acting as SME on behalf of the FlyDoncaster SPV which, I understand, is registered as a private company but is to be wholly subsidised by the public sector.

Where the language has been misleading, at least up til now and until an announcement is made to the contrary, there has been an implication that they have a preferred ‘operator and investor’. But it would appear that the investor is indeed themselves. The SAU findings clearly can’t understand how the business case has concluded that the airport will reach financial viability within a short space of time and why they’ve used a base model passenger throughput that is higher than the peak value of any year during the previous 17 years of operation. They plan on deferring any repayments to the ‘loan’ for ten years, why? Is it a loan or is it a grant?

Certainly, they claim that the airport will take 20% of the passenger volume at LBA and 16% of MAN! LBA as an entirely private sector business would have grounds for legal challenged I suspect, not sure on the case of MAG, they probably aren’t too bothered either way.

 

[thejuggler]

There does seem a huge amount of 'build it and they will come' optimism bias within the figures. The issue is they did build it and they didn't.

 

[mpthomson]

Thanks for your interpretations. Some of the ‘Save DSA’ groups on social media have decided to gloss over the less than positive connotations within and instead see it as another step towards reopening.

The mayor Rod Jones has been suggesting that the SAU report was merely a box ticking exercise whilst going through the motions in the process of reopening. However, judging by comments on various news articles it seems the public feel a bit misled, some have incorrectly interpreted the news as no operators being interested. This is untrue, they do apparently have an interested operator, but as we have discussed previously on here, the operator they have supposedly chosen will have no financial risk and will purely acting as SME on behalf of the FlyDoncaster SPV which, I understand, is registered as a private company but is to be wholly subsidised by the public sector.

Where the language has been misleading, at least up til now and until an announcement is made to the contrary, there has been an implication that they have a preferred ‘operator and investor’. But it would appear that the investor is indeed themselves. The SAU findings clearly can’t understand how the business case has concluded that the airport will reach financial viability within a short space of time and why they’ve used a base model passenger throughput that is higher than the peak value of any year during the previous 17 years of operation. They plan on deferring any repayments to the ‘loan’ for ten years, why? Is it a loan or is it a grant?

Certainly, they claim that the airport will take 20% of the passenger volume at LBA and 16% of MAN! LBA as an entirely private sector business would have grounds for legal challenged I suspect, not sure on the case of MAG, they probably aren’t too bothered either way.

The abstraction figures appear to be wild flights of fantasy (see what I did there?) to be honest. They aren’t ever going to take away 20% of the traffic volume from LBA. It wasn’t remotely close to that when it was open previously and again the SAU report is very sceptical about these figures. It’s worded very diplomatically.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 23 Jan 2025 ==

There does seem a huge amount of 'build it and they will come' optimism bias within the figures. The issue is they did build it and they didn't.

It seems to be a submission full of confirmation bias and dreams, as Brian W said above.

 

[camflyer]

There does seem a huge amount of 'build it and they will come' optimism bias within the figures. The issue is they did build it and they didn't.

The problem for Doncaster and a lot of regional airports is while there may be some outward demand for package holidays this is very seasonal and there is zero demand for people around the world looking to travel to Doncaster either on holiday or for business.

 

[daodao]

The problem for Doncaster and a lot of regional airports is while there may be some outward demand for package holidays this is very seasonal and there is zero demand for people around the world looking to travel to Doncaster either on holiday or for business.

I agree that apart from London, and to a limited extent Edinburgh and Manchester, there is very little inbound traffic to other UK airports. However, with the substantial numbers of Eastern European expatriates living and working in the UK in the last 20 years, there is significant air traffic between UK regions and many places (not just capital cities) in Eastern Europe from which these people originate. Wizzair had an extensive network from Doncaster to Poland and elsewhere, and if they (or similar carriers) cannot be persuaded to return, I really can't see how re-opening Doncaster Airport creates any significant economic benefit.

 

[mpthomson]

I agree that apart from London, and to a limited extent Edinburgh and Manchester, there is very little inbound traffic to other UK airports. However, with the substantial numbers of Eastern European expatriates living and working in the UK in the last 20 years, there is significant air traffic between UK regions and many places (not just capital cities) in Eastern Europe from which these people originate. Wizzair had an extensive network from Doncaster to Poland and elsewhere, and if they (or similar carriers) cannot be persuaded to return, I really can't see how re-opening Doncaster Airport creates any significant economic benefit.

From the document linked above the SAU really saw only Eastern Europe as a viable market that wouldn't directly abstract from neighbouring airports, but it also has to be said that Wizz withdrew as they couldn't make a profit flying from there.

 

[pug1]

I agree that apart from London, and to a limited extent Edinburgh and Manchester, there is very little inbound traffic to other UK airports. However, with the substantial numbers of Eastern European expatriates living and working in the UK in the last 20 years, there is significant air traffic between UK regions and many places (not just capital cities) in Eastern Europe from which these people originate. Wizzair had an extensive network from Doncaster to Poland and elsewhere, and if they (or similar carriers) cannot be persuaded to return, I really can't see how re-opening Doncaster Airport creates any significant economic benefit.

Think their hope is that Wizzair would return, but in some ways LBA holds the cards. They relocated to LBA after DSA closed and are said to be paying more to fly from there but are also said to be very happy with route performance and therefore would be unlikely to look at returning to DSA in the event it reopens. This is not impossible of course, Wizzair may well be placating LBA somewhat, but I feel now Leeds has them they have the bargaining power. There will most likely be legal challenges if the subsidy is approved which may drag the process out a while longer, but I think LBA would have a solid case given the nature of the proposed funding.

 

[edwin_m]

From the document linked above the SAU really saw only Eastern Europe as a viable market that wouldn't directly abstract from neighbouring airports, but it also has to be said that Wizz withdrew as they couldn't make a profit flying from there.

Since Brexit EU migration has gone down a lot, so if it didn't make DSA viable then it's unlikely to do so now.

 

[BrianW]

Since Brexit EU migration has gone down a lot, so if it didn't make DSA viable then it's unlikely to do so now.

69% of Doncaster voters voted Leave in the Brexit referendum.

 

[YorkRailFan]

The problem for Doncaster and a lot of regional airports is while there may be some outward demand for package holidays this is very seasonal and there is zero demand for people around the world looking to travel to Doncaster either on holiday or for business.

LBA caters to the Yorkshire leisure Market very well, it is home to Jet2 who are known up here for their package holidays and of course their boarding music.

Think their hope is that Wizzair would return, but in some ways LBA holds the cards.

I thought it was TUI that was interested in DSA reopening?

I saw some of Newsnight last night and the Telegraph journalist (with 30 years exeperience, so an expert in everything), calmly suggested DSA was the answer to the airport expansion problems of the south east. Thereby proving he probably isn't an expert in aviation.

If any UK Airport can help relieve congestion at Heathrow and Gatwick, its Manchester (perhaps Birmingham) as MAN acts as the main hub for the North.

 

[pug1]

LBA caters to the Yorkshire leisure Market very well, it is home to Jet2 who are known up here for their package holidays and of course their boarding music.

I thought it was TUI that was interested in DSA reopening?

If any UK Airport can help relieve congestion at Heathrow and Gatwick, its Manchester (perhaps Birmingham) as MAN acts as the main hub for the North.

They claim TUI are interested, but they have aircraft shortage issues and when DSA was open it was the least popular crew base amongst other things, but if the funding is approved in spite of the SAU findings then I suppose we will see what happens in the coming months. Spring 2026 opening would need a fairly lengthy lead in time to get holidays on sale, probably as early as May which isn’t far away. Miss that and they will miss the opportunity for up to another year. But the SAU report linked to earlier up thread clearly states that the Eastern European market is something CDC see as theirs and one of their core growth markets, and that LBA have effectively borrowed it whilst the airport has been temporarily closed. I’m sure LBA don’t see it that way.

No airport will relieve congestion at LHR, the only way to relieve congestion there is to expand. There are plenty of large airports in the U.K. that could comfortably host the extra capacity without any investment whatsoever, but the airlines are not interested. People who say things like DSA being the answer to the problem need to give their heads a wobble and go and talk about something else. It’s nonsense and there is empirical evidence to show this is the case.

 

[mpthomson]

They claim TUI are interested, but they have aircraft shortage issues and when DSA was open it was the least popular crew base amongst other things, but if the funding is approved in spite of the SAU findings then I suppose we will see what happens in the coming months. Spring 2026 opening would need a fairly lengthy lead in time to get holidays on sale, probably as early as May which isn’t far away. Miss that and they will miss the opportunity for up to another year. But the SAU report linked to earlier up thread clearly states that the Eastern European market is something CDC see as theirs and one of their core growth markets, and that LBA have effectively borrowed it whilst the airport has been temporarily closed. I’m sure LBA don’t see it that way.

No airport will relieve congestion at LHR, the only way to relieve congestion there is to expand. There are plenty of large airports in the U.K. that could comfortably host the extra capacity without any investment whatsoever, but the airlines are not interested. People who say things like DSA being the answer to the problem need to give their heads a wobble and go and talk about something else. It’s nonsense and there is empirical evidence to show this is the case.

Indeed TUI now routinely fly people to holiday destinations using Ryanair due to their own lack of capacity.