Really? It seemed to go on for a long time. It was also a sign that the TOC still weren’t employing enough crew to run the service!
Yes, there seems to be, for certain grades in certain locations. That needs investigation.
Is there evidence of that in public? I’m aware that this has been the case in the workforce in general.
I’ve summarised it above - higher rates of absence, earlier retirements, and less willingness to work extra shifts / overtime is much of it. And in my personal view the latter two are in part a result of the salary levels compared to history for drivers, with fewer people needing to work extra hours, or work right up to (or beyond ) pension date to achieve a standard of living they are content with.
But the points I’ve made also explain current higher rates of absence, potentially, in line with what we are seeing elsewhere.
I’m not convinced the “drivers’ salaries has risen” argument explains it; for one thing, you’ve yourself mentioned the current metrics have worked for years, yet drivers’ pay hasn’t gone up overnight. It’s gradually increased over the last few decades. Indeed most drivers are paid less in real terms now than in 2018/19, when there were none of these issues.
For another, house prices, mortgage increases, cost of living recently etc. have outstripped even driver earnings increases by a healthy margin. Yes there’s a cohort who’ve paid their mortgages off and can retire early, but there’s also an increasingly significant number with young families who are finding things challenging.
I personally suspect the following: a lack of goodwill following the recent dispute, and vilification of the grade and industry; worse passenger behaviour encountered at work, and (for those who can afford it) a realisation that life is better spent not at work - even if that means less money.
There’s also a lot in terms and conditions / local agreements but let‘s not go into that here, especially as they haven’t really changed much in the last few years for obvious reasons.
But those agreements also aren’t recent - exactly as you say - so they also can’t account for the change.