DustyBin
Established Member
Apologies if I came across as slightly glib there. Whilst you are of course correct, the point I was trying to make is that people in such a position often regard these as secondary issues at best.
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The 2024 US presidential election.
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Apologies if I came across as slightly glib there. Whilst you are of course correct, the point I was trying to make is that people in such a position often regard these as secondary issues at best.
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nlogax
Established Member
He will, of course.
You'd hope not but to start fixing the economy and how people in the UK feel about their lot, Labour have a mountain to climb between now and the next election. If they can't deliver on a large part of their promises then the UK will steer to the right and to the likes of Farage (a true "Britain Trump" if you will, even more so than Johnson). I do not share your faith in the British electorate to make what many of us would consider decent choices.
That Badenoch and Farage are hard-right? Yes - I am afraid I do, in fact with Farage I would go further: in my personal opinion I consider him far-right. And by denying that we could be sleepwalking into a hard-right and authoritarian Trump-lite government in 2029.
To make it clear, though, I would absolutely not apply that label to other, reasonably middle-of-the-road Tories such as Cleverly, Hunt, Tugendhat, Stride, etc.
Or, for that matter, Republicans such as Romney or even Pence.
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Apologies too, I came across maybe a bit dismissive but it was driven by being increasingly unnerved about what is going on at the moment politically in the USA and parts of Europe.
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Perhaps we need to start hoping someone like Cleverly will become Tory leader between now and then. While I don't want a Tory government in 2029, a "sane" Tory government would be infinitely better than some of the other horrific choices.
Farage I think is even worse than Trump in some ways, as he's younger and a "true believer" in hard-right politics. I can see a possible slide into Fidesz-style authoritarianism if that comes about, and I think (particularly with AI being what it could be by then) we might, perhaps, all have to be very careful about what we post online, even anonymously.
Perhaps also we need a viable party of the left, that people can turn to as an alternative to the hard-right. Sadly it seems, driven by elements of the media and the likes of Farage, people are easily brainwashed into thinking that the hard-right will solve their problems. You and I know that absolutely will not happen but so many seem to be shockingly naive, as we have seen in the USA.
But a left coalition has saved France, for now, from far-right government. Perhaps the same could happen here or elsewhere as people grow increasingly fearful about the erosion of their civil liberties.
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nlogax
Established Member
That's also my hope, a return to some decent centre-right pragmatism in the opposition ahead of the next election would go some way to make the UK's response to Trump's next WH stint a little easier. A bit of cross-party consensus wouldn't go amiss. It's only by dint of the almighty cluster**** by Cleverley's supporters during the recent leadership contest that we're not already in that middle ground.
brad465
Veteran Member
He and other link-minded folk in the EU will gain a boost from Trump initially. However, if Trump has spectacularly failed by the end of his term, anyone who associated with him will be in trouble and lose support as a result. Note how none of the Eurosceptic movements in the EU suddenly want to leave it after seeing what the UK went through with Brexit.
1D54
Established Member
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Conservative party member and wanted Cleverley in and sincerely hope he is within the next couple of years. Must also point out that i went to Reform in the GE and that was why i asked nw 1 if he was serious about "far right wing nut jobs'. Don't consider myself as one or I'd not be posting on such a distinguished forum as this but the some people seem to have gone in to a blind panic over the result of the USA election and i really see very little to worry about as far as domestic politics goes.
InkyScrolls
On Moderation
I fully agree! There's a lot of scaremongering.
nlogax
Established Member
Republicans getting a complete thrashing in 2028 (ie not even a relatively close Electoral College loss) will be the bare minimum threshold of a Trump failure.
DustyBin
Established Member
Seconded here. Whilst I don’t believe Trump is in any way fit to be the leader of the free world, and his rhetoric this time around has been particularly concerning, he’s not an unknown quantity. He previously managed a full term without doing anything silly (use of Twitter aside!), and I don’t expect him to do anything dramatically stupid during this term either.
My concern is that Trump 1.0 was relatively "moderate" in rhetoric.
Trump post-2020 has been an entirely different ballgame, and his supporters seem far more fanatical now. And the leveraging of religious extremists who wish to crack down on basic civil rights is also new, and not nearly so evident last time.
nlogax
Established Member
I'm.. surprised at that statement. Any chance you could expand on that a bit?
cactustwirly
Established Member
I don't think Badenoch is far right, she is more right than previous leaders in the conservative party. Her cabinet picks are pragmatic, like picking Mel Stride for shadow chancellor he is towards the left of the party.
If she pulls it she stands a strong chance of appealing to Reform and Lib Dem voters in the next election, especially as she isn't a white Etonian, that will give her an advantage
Apart from continually denying that he lost the election in 2020 during the period November 2020-January 2021 when he was still President, pressuring his VP not to certify the results and ultimately inciting an insurrection. Nothing ‘silly’ there.
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There is a difference between hard right, which nw1 claimed she was, and far right.
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To be fair I called her hard-right, not far-right.
Absolutely no chance with Lib Dem voters with her reactionary views.
If he starts his trade war then it almost certainly will be.
He talked a lot of drivel, but didn't actually do much during his term. Yes, words have consequences but he did at least manage to avoid inciting WWIII. Be grateful for small mercies. This time though almost all of the moderating influences are gone, his government will be filled with yes-men.
brad465
Veteran Member
This was a miracle considering some of his individual military actions, most notably assassinating Iran's top general at the start of 2020.
DustyBin
Established Member
I agree with you, but now he’s won I think there’s a good chance he’ll cool it down.
Actually there was this:
I’d overlooked the fact he was still president when the insurrection took place… I was thinking more policy-wise, but fair enough I shall concede the point!
These trade wars will be the ultimate downfall of Trump.
Companies are not going to come back to manufacturing in the US it's just not viable when all the parts that go into your product are now made overseas, probably not far from the factory that does the assembly.
In reality you'd have to move all parts manufacture back to the US and that'll probably work out more than the tariffs.
Also with patents I bet there is alot of important things where you'd need to hand over a lot of cash to get a licence to make it in the US, adding to any increases in production costs.
Of course when prices do go up, Trump will try and blame it on someone else and hopefully people will see right through it. People will welcome jobs creation in the US right up until it hurts them in their pockets!
Also America needs to be shown that it needs us more than we need them, I can't think of anything important that America makes that we can't make ourselves, usually to a much higher standard. When the tariffs come in and it doesn't stop people paying more for foreign goods it will be a real wake up call.
Companies are not going to come back to manufacturing in the US it's just not viable when all the parts that go into your product are now made overseas, probably not far from the factory that does the assembly.
In reality you'd have to move all parts manufacture back to the US and that'll probably work out more than the tariffs.
Also with patents I bet there is alot of important things where you'd need to hand over a lot of cash to get a licence to make it in the US, adding to any increases in production costs.
Of course when prices do go up, Trump will try and blame it on someone else and hopefully people will see right through it. People will welcome jobs creation in the US right up until it hurts them in their pockets!
Also America needs to be shown that it needs us more than we need them, I can't think of anything important that America makes that we can't make ourselves, usually to a much higher standard. When the tariffs come in and it doesn't stop people paying more for foreign goods it will be a real wake up call.
Purple Train
Established Member
When America sneezes, the world catches a cold - that much is pretty clear. The question is whether, if Trump's second presidency turns out to be a disaster, that will cause a copycat collapse of the populist-right elsewhere, and, if so, how quickly?
brad465
Veteran Member
I think it will cause a collapse, but it will take at least a year to materialise (after seeing an initial boost from Trump's victory). Therefore, countries with elections next year could still see such parties do well (e.g. Germany and Australia). However after that then these parties may struggle; ones to watch in this instance will include Hungary (2026), France (2027) and Italy (2027 at latest). The US mid-terms as well could be a litmus test for this, as they take place in November 2026.
He was using the escalate to deescalate strategy. Favoured by many regimes, including Iran and North Korea. It seems odd to us because it’s rarely been the British MO.
I think you misunderstand American culture and politics.
I doubt it.
Not sure about hard-right. But nutjobs, definitely. (Although I’ve only met one of them, so shouldnt judge the other).
DerekC
Established Member
But all this talk of Trumps presidency being a failure ignores the fact that whatever happens, Trump will call it a success - and his friend Musk will do everything he can to spread that view. And of course Donald Junior will be fully groomed for his role as heir by then.
Depends on the ‘disaster’. We all knew from his track record that our own buffoon would eventually implode but couldn’t predict the scale of the clusterduck. In fact the biggest damage was done by the choice of his successor.
As for populism, it feeds on blame, scapegoats and dog whistle politics, although the subtlety of the latter bypasses Trump.
Random thought on that: given Trump has somehow managed to come back, should we start preparing for Boris 2.0 (or should that be 3.0, if green liberal cuddly Boris of London Mayor fame was 1.0) in 2029?
(Though given some of the alternatives, I'm now thinking the return of Boris would not be the worst option on the table!)
Purple Train
Established Member
I don't think so. Trump has been the face of Republicanism since 2016 - he lost the presidency, but not the profile - whereas Johnson has left politics completely, and hasn't made any serious noises about returning (or, really, any at all besides writing something claiming to be a book). I'm not saying definitely not, but I would say that Trump's "return" is nothing like a hypothetical Boris comeback. Would the recommendations of the Privileges Committee still apply if he regained a seat at the next election? And would he gain the support within the Conservative Party to regain his former standing within it? I don't think he would.
Possibly. My experience of Americans has mostly been via US expats in the UK and almost universally liberal Americans whom I met while visiting blue states, all of which were pretty critical even of the relatively moderate George W. Bush, never mind Trump.
Add to that the good number of American public figures who don't like him, and you can understand why I think of Trump support as a minority trait (hence my surprise at the result).
thenorthern
Established Member
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I read somewhere that the best way to sum up Kamala was "what are the good things about Kamala that don't involve Trump?". If you think about it though the only good thing about Kamala to a lot of people was that she wasn't Trump.
The Democrats only have themselves to Blame for the defeat though. Many people were unhappy and they just weren't listening. The media played a part in the defeat as well as they didn't scrutinise Biden enough.
The Democrats only have themselves to Blame for the defeat though. Many people were unhappy and they just weren't listening. The media played a part in the defeat as well as they didn't scrutinise Biden enough.
brad465
Veteran Member
The economy was the no.1 issue for voters and the Democrats didn't make it the core of their campaign (combined with not doing more on the price side of it, as the jobs and growth side was positive for them). I'd say that's the biggest failure (i.e. not focusing on voter's no.1 issue, regardless of what it is), the second being the debacle over changing candidates.
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