The 2024 US presidential election.

[Gloster]

Hmm,for every Latino that takes offence there will be two rednecks who will be happy-clapping and saying "right on Don "

Let us hope that the rednecks would have voted for Trump anyway, but the Latino will be galvanised to vote against him when s/he might have not bothered to vote (or even supported Trump). That said, it is either a sign of rank stupidity or overweening arrogance to make a joke against a significant group of your potential voters so close to the election.

One thing that I have read about once or twice is how black males, particularly younger ones, are inclining towards Trump for purely misogynistic reasons. A deeply worrying sign of the way things are going.

 

[bahnause]

That said, it is either a sign of rank stupidity or overweening arrogance to make a joke against a significant group of your potential voters so close to the election.

Why did Hinchcliffe think an arena full (not really...) of Trump supporters would appreciate the joke?

His biggest mistake was in his completely accurate reading of the room.

 

[Gloster]

Why did Hinchcliffe think an arena full (not really...) of Trump supporters would appreciate the joke?

His biggest mistake was in his completely accurate reading of the room.

A ‘joke’ that then gets widely publicised and becomes known to an electorate that may not share the ‘sense of humour’ of the audience.

 

[wilbers]

Bohemian Trumpsody

Pretty much sums it up.

How is this real life? Wish it was fantasy!
Ought to be landslide, not a race to the final week

 

[GusB]

Bohemian Trumpsody

Pretty much sums it up.

Superbly written and produced - I love it!

 

[wilbers]

Looks like everyone might find out if Musk's scheme in Pennsylvania is illegal, or found a loophole in the law. The timing it has in that article has the hearing starting in 16 minutes from now.

Musk ordered to attend court over US voter cash giveaways

Philadelphia prosecutors are attempting to stop his cash prizes - but Musk denies any wrongdoing.

www.bbc.co.uk

Elon Musk has been ordered to attend a court hearing on Thursday, days after the billionaire was sued by prosecutors in Philadelphia over his $1m (£770,000) giveaways to voters.

The Donald Trump supporter has, through his political group America PAC, been offering cash prizes to registered voters in swing states who sign a petition.

US officials suggest this may break electoral law - something Musk denies. Philadelphia District Attorney Lawrence Krasner said Musk "must be stopped, immediately, before the upcoming presidential election".

 

[DarloRich]

I fear that Harris may win the popular vote yet trump win the electoral college looking at polls from key states.

 

[trainswitheddy]

I fear that Harris may win the popular vote yet trump win the electoral college looking at polls from key states.

Could the polls be underestimating Democratic turnout? (As we saw in 2022)
Iirc if the polls are as far out as they were then Harris wins.

 

[zero]

I fear that Harris may win the popular vote yet trump win the electoral college looking at polls from key states.

Could the polls be underestimating Democratic turnout? (As we saw in 2022)
Iirc if the polls are as far out as they were then Harris wins.

The electoral college is skewed towards states that vote Republican, so there is a reasonable chance of Harris getting more votes but Trump winning, as per the below graph from https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ (and which also happened in 2016). However the Harris and Trump teams already know this and must be devising their strategies accordingly.

I think the result is basically unknowable at this point and both candidates have close enough to a 50:50 chance. For every polling error that points towards Harris winning you can probably find a different one that points towards Trump winning.


This graph shows the national popular vote margin and Electoral College margin in every model simulation. It shows you how often a candidate wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.

 

[Smidster]

Could the polls be underestimating Democratic turnout? (As we saw in 2022)
Iirc if the polls are as far out as they were then Harris wins.

Absolutely they could be.

I have to say I am pretty sceptical of polls this time - Not just the fact the Republicans have "flooded the zone" with a lot of GOP leaning polls but we need to remember that more and more the methods that are being used move away from trying to find a representative group of people and reporting back what they told you but weighting and modelling within an inch of its life.

So in many cases the polls are 50:50 because the assumptions the pollster designed were constructed to produce a 50:50 result and the level of herding has been silly (all the polling coming to pretty much the same answer which statistically it really shouldn't given sampling error)

The exception to this is the Seltzer poll in Iowa where she the only thing she really does is simple demographic weighting and we saw that poll was much more in Harris' direction - Now, of course that could be missing something or catching something specific in Iowa (there was a particularly anti-women abortion law enacted recently) but to me it doesn't feel like it did in 2016 or even 2020.

We will find out in 48 hours - Anyone staying up to watch the final Trump meltdown?

 

[Bald Rick]

I fear that Harris may win the popular vote yet trump win the electoral college looking at polls from key states.

Thats certainly what the bookies reckon. Glad I got my bet on Trump a while back.

 

[DarloRich]

Glad I got my bet on Trump a while back.

I hope it pays out enough to insulate you form the chaos that comes with his win!

 

[wilbers]

Thats certainly what the bookies reckon. Glad I got my bet on Trump a while back.

Was that as an insurance policy [as in, oh noes but at least there is a bit of bonus cash], or because you thought it likely to happen at the time?

 

[brad465]

I recall reading somewhere at the end of 2016, that if someone had put a £5-10 bet on Trump winning, Brexit happening AND Leicester City winning the Premier league, they'd have made around £8 million. This was based on each outcome's longest odds: in the summer of 2015, Trump had odds of around 100/1, Brexit was around 3/1 and Leicester of course was the infamous 5000/1.

 

[scarby]

I recall reading somewhere at the end of 2016, that if someone had put a £5-10 bet on Trump winning, Brexit happening AND Leicester City winning the Premier league, they'd have made around £8 million. This was based on each outcome's longest odds: in the summer of 2015, Trump had odds of around 100/1, Brexit was around 3/1 and Leicester of course was the infamous 5000/1.

Well, they wouldn't have.

That's because all bookmakers have maximum payout limits to prevent results like this potentially causing ruin.

I believe William Hill's maximum payout on football is £2 million but on other sports it's much lower. Betfred's maximum payout for politics is £100,000.

They'll normally accept a small stakes bet over the counter such as the above but if they do it's subject to those maximums which are in their rules.

Back in the day I remember my local independent bookie had a maximum payout of £5,000. Not a place to put on a football accumulator!

It's something to always bear in mind if you are going after life-changing sums. You might actually be better off taking some of the elements of the bet away.

 

[Bald Rick]

I hope it pays out enough to insulate you form the chaos that comes with his win!

Sadly not, not like last time.

Was that as an insurance policy [as in, oh noes but at least there is a bit of bonus cash], or because you thought it likely to happen at the time?

Thought it was more likely to happen than reflected in the odds at the time. For both this and the 2016 election I have had insights into the minds of “US Joe Public” that we tend not to get over here, and therefore I felt that the odds of Trump winning were much more likely than the betting market. I got about 10/1 last time. Not so this time!

I recall reading somewhere at the end of 2016, that if someone had put a £5-10 bet on Trump winning, Brexit happening AND Leicester City winning the Premier league, they'd have made around £8 million. This was based on each outcome's longest odds: in the summer of 2015, Trump had odds of around 100/1, Brexit was around 3/1 and Leicester of course was the infamous 5000/1.

I got longer odds than that on Brexit. That was a bet to help insure against the financial losses we would have!

 

[brad465]

I got longer odds than that on Brexit. That was a bet to help insure against the financial losses we would have!

I hope you made that bet in dollars

 

[wilbers]

I hope you made that bet in dollars

One of the investments I had at the time hedged against £/$ currency risk. The one time they didn't was Brexit - vote remain, nothing happens to exchange rate, vote leave and consolation profit.

 

[nw1]

One thing I hope might happen is that fear of Trump winning will cause many people in the saner 52% or so of the US population to come out and vote to stop it happening.

If he does win then I will freely admit I don't get "US Joe Public" at all. He's a felon and a yob, and a hate-monger who spouts not one word of sense and is completely unsuited to be a leader. He constantly accuses his opponents of things that he is far more guilty of himself. Unlike someone like say Rees-Mogg, who has a completely different world-view to me but at least doesn't hurl insults around at his opponents every five seconds, I fail to understand why anyone other than far-right extremists would vote Trump.

It will certainly say some pretty terrible things about a very sizeable part of the US electorate. I could not even begin to relate to a Trump voter, I'm afraid.

And will these flag-wavers be particularly happy when the US is not taken very seriously by much of the rest of the world as a result of Trump? I'm not especially patriotic, but I certainly wouldn't be voting for someone who will trash my country's reputation.

 

[brad465]

One thing I hope might happen is that fear of Trump winning will cause many people in the saner 52% or so of the US population to come out and vote to stop it happening.

If he does win then I will freely admit I don't get "US Joe Public" at all. He's a felon and a yob, and a hate-monger who spouts not one word of sense and is completely unsuited to be a leader. He constantly accuses his opponents of things that he is far more guilty of himself. Unlike someone like say Rees-Mogg, who has a completely different world-view to me but at least doesn't hurl insults around at his opponents every five seconds, I fail to understand why anyone other than far-right extremists would vote Trump.

It will certainly say some pretty terrible things about a very sizeable part of the US electorate. I could not even begin to relate to a Trump voter, I'm afraid.

And will these flag-wavers be particularly happy when the US is not taken very seriously by much of the rest of the world as a result of Trump? I'm not especially patriotic, but I certainly wouldn't be voting for someone who will trash my country's reputation.

I wouldn't be surprised if a large part is just tribalism, where most of the voters for Trump are doing so because he's standing under their party banner. Had ailing Biden still been in it you would have seen a similar state of affairs with a core Democrat base voting that way for the same reason.

I remember back in the run-up to the North Shropshire by-election 3 years ago, the FT did an analysis of the constituency and what was at stake, which included a very memorable line to me:

Subscribe to the Financial Times

A subscription to the Financial Times provides you with the insights and perspective you need to succeed, now.

on.ft.com

“Farmers are always better off under Labour,” he said before adding: “But I will vote Conservative because that’s the way I have been brought up.”

(Of course despite this the Tories lost the seat, and still don't hold it after the latest GE)

I wouldn't be surprised if there are Trump supporters, or supporters of other parties who vote with their upbringing/blind ideology, even if rivals have actually done more good for them before.

 

[edwin_m]

I wouldn't be surprised if a large part is just tribalism, where most of the voters for Trump are doing so because he's standing under their party banner. Had ailing Biden still been in it you would have seen a similar state of affairs with a core Democrat base voting that way for the same reason.

I remember back in the run-up to the North Shropshire by-election 3 years ago, the FT did an analysis of the constituency and what was at stake, which included a very memorable line to me:

Subscribe to the Financial Times

A subscription to the Financial Times provides you with the insights and perspective you need to succeed, now.

on.ft.com

(Of course despite this the Tories lost the seat, and still don't hold it after the latest GE)

I wouldn't be surprised if there are Trump supporters, or supporters of other parties who vote with their upbringing/blind ideology, even if rivals have actually done more good for them before.

Plenty of highish-profile Republicans have repudiated Trump and several of them are sharing platforms with Harris to say so. Hence traditional party loyalty is being seen as a factor, but I don't actually think it's that significant here.

A lot of Americans, particularly from the midwest and south that tends more Republican, don't really know or care much about what happens in the rest of the world. This is perhaps somewhat understandable considering how big the USA is and how it is relatively isolated from many of the wider world's problems (immigration being one of the few areas they impinge). This narrow perspective combines with a sense of self-reliance that doesn't look kindly on interference by outsiders, including the more liberal (mainly coastal) states. Also there's a feeling that prosperity and poverty are unfairly distributed, somewhat like one of the factors driving the Brexit vote in the UK. Trump has managed to pull the trick of claiming he is on the side of that bloc, all their problems are due to outsiders in the classic populist line, and furthermore all his opponents are motivated by conspiracy or self-interest. The relative lack of impartial media contributes here too.

 

[Falcon1200]

What is the scariest outcome of the Presidential outcome? Trump winning; Or Trump losing but claiming he won anyway, with his supporters feeling incited to take direct action, again. Neither prospect is appealing.

 

[edwin_m]

What is the scariest outcome of the Presidential outcome? Trump winning; Or Trump losing but claiming he won anyway, with his supporters feeling incited to take direct action, again. Neither prospect is appealing.

I doubt we'll see a repeat of the storming of Congress, because Biden has control of the National Guard and they will be ready this time. The rules have also been changed to make it more difficult for Congress to refuse to certify. What's more likely is that Trump supporters who have meanwhile been placed in key positions in swing states will impede the counting and certification in various ways.

 

[Russel]

What do we predict will happen in the middle east, dependant on if Harrris or Trump win?

 

[Smidster]

Agree that there will be no real attempts to steal this by the GOP...They would try if it were close but it will be a clear cut win for Harris to the point they can't even try (GOP will win Senate and House is a pure toss up as thanks to jerrymanders so few seats in play)

It may be the hopium but really there isn't much data to support a Trump win...compared to 16 the enthusiasm really isn't there and especially this past few weeks everything he has said is poison to women and independents who are voting in big numbers (the gender gap is insane right now)

As for betting markets - Tells you nothing other than who is gambling. The biggest market in the States is being propped up by a handful of "whales" who have dropped millions on him - They are more likely to be crypto fools besotted with Musk rather than savants.

 

[AlterEgo]

If I was a betting man it would be on Trump by a whisker. Harris has lost a lot of ground over the last couple of weeks.

 

[Gloster]

It is far to difficult to make even a serious prognostication, but I fear there has been a slow drift back to Trump over the last couple of weeks. However, I do think that there will be bigly chaos of one sort or another over coming months.

 

[Purple Train]

A lot of Americans, particularly from the midwest and south that tends more Republican, don't really know or care much about what happens in the rest of the world. This is perhaps somewhat understandable considering how big the USA is and how it is relatively isolated from many of the wider world's problems (immigration being one of the few areas they impinge). This narrow perspective combines with a sense of self-reliance that doesn't look kindly on interference by outsiders, including the more liberal (mainly coastal) states. Also there's a feeling that prosperity and poverty are unfairly distributed, somewhat like one of the factors driving the Brexit vote in the UK. Trump has managed to pull the trick of claiming he is on the side of that bloc, all their problems are due to outsiders in the classic populist line, and furthermore all his opponents are motivated by conspiracy or self-interest. The relative lack of impartial media contributes here too.

My American correspondent has been trotting out the "Trump is a dreadful person but at least he'd be better with the economy" line, although that's purely anecdotal and may well not be representative of the general reason for Trump's popularity.

If I was a betting man it would be on Trump by a whisker. Harris has lost a lot of ground over the last couple of weeks.

Likewise. Ironically it could have been better had they changed candidate later - Harris still seems to have a lead, but she's lost all her momentum. To be honest, though, neither candidate seems to have a great deal of momentum. It seems much like 4 July over here - it didn't feel like the immediate run-up to an election at all, albeit that was an election that was on a grand piano rather than a knife-edge.

And in terms of trusting the polls - I'd agree that they ought to be taken with a pinch of salt, but in which direction? The Republicans fell short of the prediction in the midterms, but, equally, I'd be willing to wager that quite a lot of the "undecideds" will be shy Republicans, the kind who are at best lukewarm about Trump and don't want to admit to voting for him, but nevertheless wouldn't vote for a Democrat.

Absolutely they could be.

I have to say I am pretty sceptical of polls this time - Not just the fact the Republicans have "flooded the zone" with a lot of GOP leaning polls but we need to remember that more and more the methods that are being used move away from trying to find a representative group of people and reporting back what they told you but weighting and modelling within an inch of its life.

So in many cases the polls are 50:50 because the assumptions the pollster designed were constructed to produce a 50:50 result and the level of herding has been silly (all the polling coming to pretty much the same answer which statistically it really shouldn't given sampling error)

The exception to this is the Seltzer poll in Iowa where she the only thing she really does is simple demographic weighting and we saw that poll was much more in Harris' direction - Now, of course that could be missing something or catching something specific in Iowa (there was a particularly anti-women abortion law enacted recently) but to me it doesn't feel like it did in 2016 or even 2020.

I so, so wish you're right. I'm braced for four more years of chaos, but, equally, I was pretty much the only person predicting that Labour would bottle the last election! We shall see.

 

[Bald Rick]

If he does win then I will freely admit I don't get "US Joe Public" at all.

US Joe Public is very dofferent to UK Joe Public, in their life experiences but also how they have been taught and think. I know a lot of US Citizens, and many of them who are completely reasonable and seemingly well adjusted in most aspects of life really don’t see Trump as we do, and what’s more simply don’t care what the rest of the world thinks of them. When you have it drilled into you from an early age that the USA is best at everything, why would you care?

A lot of Americans, particularly from the midwest and south that tends more Republican, don't really know or care much about what happens in the rest of the world.

Exactly.

 

[43096]

US Joe Public is very dofferent to UK Joe Public, in their life experiences but also how they have been taught and think. I know a lot of US Citizens, and many of them who are completely reasonable and seemingly well adjusted in most aspects of life really don’t see Trump as we do, and what’s more simply don’t care what the rest of the world thinks of them. When you have it drilled into you from an early age that the USA is best at everything, why would you care?

Exactly.

I understand that. What I don't get is why they don't see that he does not care about them - he couldn't give a stuff about any of his followers. It's all about him. You'd think they might have started to realise that he's a conman who has conned them. But then again, it is the country of TV evangelists...