Future of HS2?

[takno]

Government quells HS2 Phase 2a rumours

Downing Street has dampened down suggestions the northern leg of the HS2 rail project could be revived.

www.railmagazine.com

Why are they so against reviving what is obviously the best option?

So essentially the spokesman said what they've said all along, which is that they aren't going to carry on paying HS2 to build the slab track route all the way. He also didn't deny that essentially they're planning on doing the lite version whenever the fuss has died down a bit.

As long as they don't sell the land or remove safeguarding then there isn't any delay caused by waiting a year or two. The issue would be the huge added cost if they don't get ahead with the Euston tunnels, so that's the one to get happening this year

 

[brad465]

Government quells HS2 Phase 2a rumours

Downing Street has dampened down suggestions the northern leg of the HS2 rail project could be revived.

www.railmagazine.com

Why are they so against reviving what is obviously the best option?

Who says they're against it based on that report? Is there not a well-known saying "never believe anything in politics until it has been officially denied?"

 

[Sorcerer]

Typical Starmerite cautiousness of not directly promising nor ruling anything out. For what it's worth I hope that any connections from the Midlands to the North will be from HS2 rather than the Midlands-North West Rail idea of a slower line on the same route plan. Eventually I'd like to see the entire project completed in full but I doubt this country has the ambition to see it through to the end unfortunately.

 

[cle]

I can't see Manchester (2b) but I think Crewe makes a lot of sense.

It has a big station with long platforms (and room for more) for 400m trains, for splitting, for storage. It has a lot of connections so folks would benefit from 55min journeys to London, inc North Wales and Shropshire as well as random Cheshire places.

The LGV first only ran to Lyon, this is sort of the equivalent. It helps Manchester plenty, which is the most lucrative goal, but also helps Liverpool, Lancs and Scotland to the same degree. It's a flat 35-40 mins off every journey time (although the Glasgows skip Crewe so the comparison is a bit off) - but it's comfortably 90 mins or so to Man/Liv and comfortably sub 4 for Glasgow. Edinburgh will be a 'crap shoot' - but healthy competition.

 

[TheGrew]

I can't see Manchester (2b) but I think Crewe makes a lot of sense.

It has a big station with long platforms (and room for more) for 400m trains, for splitting, for storage. It has a lot of connections so folks would benefit from 55min journeys to London, inc North Wales and Shropshire as well as random Cheshire places.

The LGV first only ran to Lyon, this is sort of the equivalent. It helps Manchester plenty, which is the most lucrative goal, but also helps Liverpool, Lancs and Scotland to the same degree. It's a flat 35-40 mins off every journey time (although the Glasgows skip Crewe so the comparison is a bit off) - but it's comfortably 90 mins or so to Man/Liv and comfortably sub 4 for Glasgow. Edinburgh will be a 'crap shoot' - but healthy competition.

I couldn't agree more, I would love to see 2b as well, but getting 2a built unlocks the main benefits.

 

[gg1]

I can't see Manchester (2b) but I think Crewe makes a lot of sense.

It has a big station with long platforms (and room for more) for 400m trains, for splitting, for storage. It has a lot of connections so folks would benefit from 55min journeys to London, inc North Wales and Shropshire as well as random Cheshire places.

The LGV first only ran to Lyon, this is sort of the equivalent. It helps Manchester plenty, which is the most lucrative goal, but also helps Liverpool, Lancs and Scotland to the same degree. It's a flat 35-40 mins off every journey time (although the Glasgows skip Crewe so the comparison is a bit off) - but it's comfortably 90 mins or so to Man/Liv and comfortably sub 4 for Glasgow. Edinburgh will be a 'crap shoot' - but healthy competition.

Added to that it's a logical northern terminus for services on the southern half of the WCML, orders of magnitude better than Lichfield.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

As long as they don't sell the land or remove safeguarding then there isn't any delay caused by waiting a year or two. The issue would be the huge added cost if they don't get ahead with the Euston tunnels, so that's the one to get happening this year

The political problem is that Sunak chopped the HS2 Phase 2 budget right back, and repurposed the money (£36 billion) on other projects (Network North etc).
You can't just pretend that never happened.
The "Network North" recipients will be very cross if their promised funding is removed.
Rachel Reeves has to re-fix the forward budgets before anybody can approve more HS2 work.

 

[may032]

The political problem is that Sunak chopped the HS2 Phase 2 budget right back, and repurposed the money (£36 billion) on other projects (Network North etc).
You can't just pretend that never happened.
The "Network North" recipients will be very cross if their promised funding is removed.
Rachel Reeves has to re-fix the forward budgets before anybody can approve more HS2 work.

Did anyone really take Networth North seriously though? It looked like a piece of GCSE coursework. I can’t imagine many read it and thought the projects near them were nailed on to happen

 

[takno]

The political problem is that Sunak chopped the HS2 Phase 2 budget right back, and repurposed the money (£36 billion) on other projects (Network North etc).
You can't just pretend that never happened.
The "Network North" recipients will be very cross if their promised funding is removed.
Rachel Reeves has to re-fix the forward budgets before anybody can approve more HS2 work.

The 36 billion was to be spent in future years and had never been budgeted in any meaningful sense to start with. There are precious few signs that Sunak attempted to do any budgeting at all.

Network North was always just a poison pill of unbudgeted nonsense. The only purpose of it was to create a list of random things so people didnt ask too many questions about where the money went.

In terms of paying for it going forward, there's lots of talk about changing the fiscal rules to allow billions of additional investment in future years.

 

[stevieinselby]

I couldn't agree more, I would love to see 2b as well, but getting 2a built unlocks the main benefits.

The big question if you don't build a Manchester branch is how do you get the capacity you need to Manchester if you can't run 400m trains?
Would you run 6tph as 200+200 to Crewe, and then split them with one portion to Manchester and the other to one of Liverpool/Glasgow/Edinburgh (2tph each)? And if so, good luck pathing 4tph to Carlisle...
Or do you accept a significantly reduced capacity to Manchester compared with what was originally planned? If so, you would need offer lots of cheap fares to encourage passengers to use ICWC services both for intermediate journeys and for London–Manchester to avoid overloading HS2.

 

[Snow1964]

The big question if you don't build a Manchester branch is how do you get the capacity you need to Manchester if you can't run 400m trains?
Would you run 6tph as 200+200 to Crewe, and then split them with one portion to Manchester and the other to one of Liverpool/Glasgow/Edinburgh (2tph each)? And if so, good luck pathing 4tph to Carlisle...
Or do you accept a significantly reduced capacity to Manchester compared with what was originally planned? If so, you would need offer lots of cheap fares to encourage passengers to use ICWC services both for intermediate journeys and for London–Manchester to avoid overloading HS2.

If you extend HS2 to Crewe area, and Northern Powerhouse rail builds a section from Cheshire via Manchester Airport to Manchester (and section across Pennines), then it becomes a question of finding a private consortium to build the missing approx 40 miles.

Basically an infrastructure company gets to build missing link and collect tolls (track access charges) for few decades. Cheaper for Government up front build cost, even if it costs lot more money over next 50+ years. A few of these shadow toll schemes already exist. They are known as DBFO (design build finance operate)

No different to the principle used on A1M Alconbury-Peterborough where cost would have been about £285m, but over lifetime of shadow tolls will be nearer £700m.

 

[Shrop]

I can't see Manchester (2b) but I think Crewe makes a lot of sense.

It has a big station with long platforms (and room for more) for 400m trains, for splitting, for storage. It has a lot of connections so folks would benefit from 55min journeys to London, inc North Wales and Shropshire as well as random Cheshire places.

The LGV first only ran to Lyon, this is sort of the equivalent. It helps Manchester plenty, which is the most lucrative goal, but also helps Liverpool, Lancs and Scotland to the same degree. It's a flat 35-40 mins off every journey time (although the Glasgows skip Crewe so the comparison is a bit off) - but it's comfortably 90 mins or so to Man/Liv and comfortably sub 4 for Glasgow. Edinburgh will be a 'crap shoot' - but healthy competition.

Running to Crewe would certainly help Shropshire, especially as Shropshire to London is pretty dire via Birmingham. But add to this, the benefits of serving the Cambrian route, especially if through trains were introduced from Crewe to Aberystwyth and Barmouth.

 

[TheGrew]

The big question if you don't build a Manchester branch is how do you get the capacity you need to Manchester if you can't run 400m trains?
Would you run 6tph as 200+200 to Crewe, and then split them with one portion to Manchester and the other to one of Liverpool/Glasgow/Edinburgh (2tph each)? And if so, good luck pathing 4tph to Carlisle...
Or do you accept a significantly reduced capacity to Manchester compared with what was originally planned? If so, you would need offer lots of cheap fares to encourage passengers to use ICWC services both for intermediate journeys and for London–Manchester to avoid overloading HS2.

I do agree that remains a problem I guess you could split at Crewe, sending one half to Piccadilly via Wilmslow and the other to Victoria via Warrington.

 

[A S Leib]

although the Glasgows skip Crewe so the comparison is a bit off

None of the HS2 Scotland services were scheduled to call at Crewe either; the plan was 2 tph to Carlisle (splitting / joining there) calling at Preston and Carlisle with 1 tph calling at Birmingham Interchange as well. Birmingham was meant to be hourly nonstop from Curzon Street to Wigan NW then the existing pattern (alternating between Oxenholme and Penrith and between Glasgow and Edinburgh, all calling at Preston, Lancaster and Carlisle). I don't know if that plan would have been changed after Golborne was cut, or if that would still be the plan if HS2 to Crewe's built.

 

[Nottingham59]

I do agree that remains a problem I guess you could split at Crewe, sending one half to Piccadilly via Sandbach and the other to Victoria via Warrington.

Or just split them and send them both into Piccadilly one after the other. Flighting them like that would use up less capacity than running trains into Picc at more regular intervals, but you would still have to recast the timetable to accommodate them.

 

[fishwomp]

Or just split them and send them both into Piccadilly one after the other. Flighting them like that would use up less capacity than running trains into Picc at more regular intervals, but you would still have to recast the timetable to accommodate them.

In addition to a 3-4 minutes delay for the second of the two trains in a split whilst waiting for a clear road.. going the other direction will mean waiting for the other service if it is late - or building a contingency. Splitting has been a plan for a while for other parts of the HS2 service but it sure sounds like a way to import delay and increase journey times.

 

[TheGrew]

Or just split them and send them both into Piccadilly one after the other. Flighting them like that would use up less capacity than running trains into Picc at more regular intervals, but you would still have to recast the timetable to accommodate them.

That thought had crossed my mind as well assuming there is sufficient platform capacity at Piccadilly.

 

[Nottingham59]

In addition to a 3-4 minutes delay for the second of the two trains in a split whilst waiting for a clear road.. going the other direction will mean waiting for the other service if it is late - or building a contingency. Splitting has been a plan for a while for other parts of the HS2 service but it sure sounds like a way to import delay and increase journey times.

It sure is. But until they bypass Colwich junction somehow (which limits HS2 trains to around 6-8tph) and build 400m platforms somewhere in Manchester, then they're going to have to split and join HS2 services.

 

[stevieinselby]

None of the HS2 Scotland services were scheduled to call at Crewe either; the plan was 2 tph to Carlisle (splitting / joining there) calling at Preston and Carlisle with 1 tph calling at Birmingham Interchange as well. Birmingham was meant to be hourly nonstop from Curzon Street to Wigan NW then the existing pattern (alternating between Oxenholme and Penrith and between Glasgow and Edinburgh, all calling at Preston, Lancaster and Carlisle). I don't know if that plan would have been changed after Golborne was cut, or if that would still be the plan if HS2 to Crewe's built.

It feels like worrying about the minutiae of whether a particular service was going to call at a particular station under a previous plan that has now been scrapped is an exercise in futility.
If the plan is significantly different around how far the new line is being built and where 400m trains can run to, the question of whether or not Scotland trains call at Crewe is one of the easier changes to make.

 

[takno]

It feels like worrying about the minutiae of whether a particular service was going to call at a particular station under a previous plan that has now been scrapped is an exercise in futility.
If the plan is significantly different around how far the new line is being built and where 400m trains can run to, the question of whether or not Scotland trains call at Crewe is one of the easier changes to make.

That doesn't really solve any of the problems of getting twice as many trains between Crewe and Carlisle though. It's entirely possible that the most cost effective way to make it workable is to add 400m platforms to Carlisle and possibly Preston, and then just do enough platforms at Crewe to handle the Manchesters

 

[fishwomp]

It sure is. But until they bypass Colwich junction somehow (which limits HS2 trains to around 6-8tph) and build 400m platforms somewhere in Manchester, then they're going to have to split and join HS2 services.

Or actually go for the plan with regearing pendalinos..

 

[Nottingham59]

Or actually go for the plan with regearing pendalinos..

Still limited to 6-8tph through Colwich...

 

[Snow1964]

Government announcement that Louise Haigh has appointed James Stewart who is to look into HS2 growing costs and get them back under control. Also says Mark Wild will be taking over leadership of HS2 Ltd

Action to control the cost of HS2 and bring the project back on track has been announced by the Transport Secretary today (20 October 2024) after years of failed delivery.

Just months into the role, Louise Haigh has warned the extent of the challenge inherited on HS2 has become clear, with costs being allowed to spiral out of control and failure to deliver to budget.

Over the years, the cost of Phase One has soared, due to poor project management, inflation and poor performance from the supply chain, without sufficient explanation of what is to be done to deliver to budget.

In response, the Secretary of State has launched an independent review to ensure lessons are learned to support action and to ensure that the costs for HS2 are brought under control.

The government has been clear it is not resurrecting Phase 2 of HS2, which was cancelled under the previous administration. The government recognises concerns about connectivity between Birmingham and Manchester, but its primary focus now is the safe delivery of HS2 between Birmingham and London at the lowest reasonable cost, and the Secretary of State has made this objective clear to HS2 Ltd.

To achieve this, the government is also reinstating ministerial oversight of the project to ensure greater accountability. This will see regular meetings starting immediately, where both the Transport Secretary and Rail Minister, Lord Hendy, alongside the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, will challenge delivery and remove obstacles to securing the full benefits of the railway more cost effectively.

Transport Secretary announces urgent action to get a grip on spiralling HS2 costs 

Today's announcement marks the latest step in the Transport Secretary's mission to overhaul the railways, ensuring infrastructure works for the whole country.

www.gov.uk

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Government announcement that Louise Haigh has appointed James Stewart who is to look into HS2 growing costs and get them back under control. Also says Mark Wild will be taking over leadership of HS2 Ltd

Already undermining Wilde before he has even got a foot in the door.

Transport Secretary announces urgent action to get a grip on spiralling HS2 costs 

Today's announcement marks the latest step in the Transport Secretary's mission to overhaul the railways, ensuring infrastructure works for the whole country.

www.gov.uk

Also makes clear that Phase 2 isn't going anywhere anytime soon although acknowledges the connectivity issue in NW.

The government has been clear it is not resurrecting Phase 2 of HS2, which was cancelled under the previous administration. The government recognises concerns about connectivity between Birmingham and Manchester, but its primary focus now is the safe delivery of HS2 between Birmingham and London at the lowest reasonable cost, and the Secretary of State has made this objective clear to HS2 Ltd

This projects delivery has been utterly catastrophic from a cost point a view and makes Crossrail look professional now. Its now sucking so much out of the transport budget there wont be much left for other projects to be started for several years.

 

[Snow1964]

A video issued today (which appears to be from China) refers to a multi-billion pound deal signed between UK and China, where China assists in the high speed rail development in UK

Not sure if it is real (or a fake), or it has jumped the gun on a pending announcement that UK hasn't intended to be public yet.

Apparently mis-captioned as should be 500 million yuan (not pounds) which is about £54bn)

 

[Peter Sarf]

Later on talks about £56bn and 500 million Yuan.

At 2m10 says London to Birmingham is approximately 550 Km !.

At 2m25 says HS2 is one of the largest projects in Europe - is that becasus the rest of Europe have already built their High Speed networks ?.

At 3m05 talks about the Japanese being ruled out because of problems with Britain's first High Speed line which was apparently constructed with Japanese technology. Put down to problems with air conditioning and showing pictures of Hitachi IETs !.

At 3m35 refers to Britains SH1 line and shows a picture of a 345. It says it has suffered from increasing demand and outdated systems !.

At 4m05 it says HS2 suffered from running through many of Britain's largest cities. Well the line would be pretty pointless otherwise. But it does not exactly pass through Birmingham and Phase one goes no where near Manchester. A map is shown of NE London where HS2 does not go !.

At 4m30 it says problems due to a cultural difference - "The British approach to construction, marked by an emphasis on individual freedoms".

Right at tis stage i see this as a bash the West video and I very very dearly hope the ****s in government have not signed up to this. Otherwise the Chinese are going to get a shock unless they intend to send the red army here to deal with Swampy and his mates.

At 5m05 it says Chinese High Speed rail cost 300 million Yuan per km vs the UKs 900 million Yuan. How the hell do they expect to get the same costs as in a country with cheaper labour and easier planning rules ?. It is something we have to solve - China cannot import their solution - can they ?.

Goes on to suggest the US could not build a high speed line - fair enough BUT were they in the running ?.

Now it is inferring it is building phase one - really ?.
The hard bit they think they can do better is already done.

I suppose a Chinese company may have got the order for the trains ?.
Ignoring Bombardier/Alstom.

I feel that China cannot possibly overcome the cultural differences (willingness to work harder, adapt, forget negatives, ignore environmental concerns and never question authority). Yes we are hamstrung by all our trappings of freedom but a Chinese company will not get round that.

IS IT MERELY PROPAGANDA ?

If they have for example got the contract to built phase 2 then I can see the decision makers have really lost the plot.

 

[takno]

A video issued today (which appears to be from China) refers to a multi-billion pound deal signed between UK and China, where China assists in the high speed rail development in UK

Not sure if it is real (or a fake), or it has jumped the gun on a pending announcement that UK hasn't intended to be public yet.

Apparently mis-captioned as should be 500 million yuan (not pounds) which is about £54bn)

It absolutely screams fake tbh. I mean it could be real, and there's very little reason for such a deal not to happen, but the video itself and the extremely unpopular channel it's on just look like incredibly inept Chinese propaganda.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

Later on talks about £56bn and 500 million Yuan.

At 2m10 says London to Birmingham is approximately 550 Km !.

At 2m25 says HS2 is one of the largest projects in Europe - is that becasus the rest of Europe have already built their High Speed networks ?.

At 3m05 talks about the Japanese being ruled out because of problems with Britain's first High Speed line which was apparently constructed with Japanese technology. Put down to problems with air conditioning and showing pictures of Hitachi IETs !.

At 3m35 refers to Britains SH1 line and shows a picture of a 345. It says it has suffered from increasing demand and outdated systems !.

At 4m05 it says HS2 suffered from running through many of Britain's largest cities. Well the line would be pretty pointless otherwise. But it does not exactly pass through Birmingham and Phase one goes no where near Manchester. A map is shown of NE London where HS2 does not go !.

At 4m30 it says problems due to a cultural difference - "The British approach to construction, marked by an emphasis on individual freedoms".

Right at tis stage i see this as a bash the West video and I very very dearly hope the ****s in government have not signed up to this. Otherwise the Chinese are going to get a shock unless they intend to send the red army here to deal with Swampy and his mates.

At 5m05 it says Chinese High Speed rail cost 300 million Yuan per km vs the UKs 900 million Yuan. How the hell do they expect to get the same costs as in a country with cheaper labour and easier planning rules ?. It is something we have to solve - China cannot import their solution - can they ?.

Goes on to suggest the US could not build a high speed line - fair enough BUT were they in the running ?.

Now it is inferring it is building phase one - really ?.
The hard bit they think they can do better is already done.

I suppose a Chinese company may have got the order for the trains ?.
Ignoring Bombardier/Alstom.

I feel that China cannot possibly overcome the cultural differences (willingness to work harder, adapt, forget negatives, ignore environmental concerns and never question authority). Yes we are hamstrung by all our trappings of freedom but a Chinese company will not get round that.

IS IT MERELY PROPAGANDA ?

If they have for example got the contract to built phase 2 then I can see the decision makers have really lost the plot.

Please God no. If we’ve done this we really are a spineless country

 

[Snow1964]

A number of news sites are reporting a freeze of HS2 land sales whilst it considers alternatives, eg

Land bought up for the now scrapped section of HS2 will not be sold until the Government considers an alternative proposal to build a new 50-mile railway line, a transport minister has said.

The commitment by Lord Hendy of Richmond Hill follows the publication last month of a report commissioned by the mayors of Greater Manchester and the West Midlands

Land sale freeze on axed HS2 route as Government examines rail alternative

A Labour frontbencher says he recognises concerns about connectivity between Birmingham and Manchester.

www.standard.co.uk

Full transcript in Hansard

https://hansard.parliament.uk/lords/2024-10-23/debates/32D6B775-0107-4A92-B94A-AC89CF798136/HS2PurchasedLand

 

[MattRat]

The big question if you don't build a Manchester branch is how do you get the capacity you need to Manchester if you can't run 400m trains?
Would you run 6tph as 200+200 to Crewe, and then split them with one portion to Manchester and the other to one of Liverpool/Glasgow/Edinburgh (2tph each)? And if so, good luck pathing 4tph to Carlisle...
Or do you accept a significantly reduced capacity to Manchester compared with what was originally planned? If so, you would need offer lots of cheap fares to encourage passengers to use ICWC services both for intermediate journeys and for London–Manchester to avoid overloading HS2.

If the North Wales coast line was electrified, could some services be directed to that line, instead of Carlisle?