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Latest news on nationalisation timelines - from FT article yesterday

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HerneHill

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There is an FT article from yesterday that seems to be the first time government officials have gone on record in putting a specific planned date as to when TOC nationalisations will start.
Break clauses at Greater Anglia and West Midlands Trains expired in September, so the government is set to begin the nationalisations after giving one of these operators, which are both run by TransportUK, the required three months notice. A government official said that process was expected to start in February.

The main body of the article is about the government not being able to find appropriate legal grounds to terminate Avanti's NRC early (ahead of CTED) on poor performance grounds.
Avanti was the worst-performing train operator in the UK between April and June, according to industry figures. Almost 60 per cent of its trains over the period were late, double the national average, figures from the Office of Rail and Road showed. Cancellation levels were also twice the national average. However, legal advice provided to the Department for Transport concluded that the operator was not in breach of its performance obligations, people familiar with the findings said. One of the people said the company’s most recent contract had been drawn up in such a way that it was very difficult to breach on performance grounds. Transport secretary Louise Haigh said: “The Conservatives rewarded failure, handing Avanti a nine-year contract. And their shockingly low standards mean the contract is incredibly hard to breach — despite the operator’s woeful performance.
 
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Goldfish62

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There is an FT article from yesterday that seems to be the first time government officials have gone on record in putting a specific planned date as to when TOC nationalisations will start.


The main body of the article is about the government not being able to find appropriate legal grounds to terminate Avanti's NRC early (ahead of CTED) on poor performance grounds.
Here's the link to the article which some may or may not be able to access.

I'm not sure of the wisdom of targeting Transport UK, specifically GA, first on the basis that it's the best performing TOC (and a UK-owned company). If performance declines subsequently questions are going to be asked!
 

LNW-GW Joint

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There's as yet no coherence between the already-nationalised DOLR TOCs and their supporting NR Regions.
It's probably more important to get them in some sort of wider management structure than to add to the pile of random DOHL TOC contracts.
There are still no hints of a management structure for (S)GBR.

Louise Haigh's severe criticism of Avanti also included their (nationalised) NR partners.
 

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I'm not sure of the wisdom of targeting Transport UK, specifically GA, first on the basis that it's the best performing TOC (and a UK-owned company). If performance declines subsequently questions are going to be asked!
Where group CEO Dominic Booth claimed "we're keeping the two (GA/WM) contracts until 2026" he's pretty much terminated the franchise by saying something that Louise Haigh or Peter Hendy never said. Shareholders should have immediately sent him packing for damaging the TUK business.
 

Goldfish62

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There's as yet no coherence between the already-nationalised DOLR TOCs and their supporting NR Regions.
It's probably more important to get them in some sort of wider management structure than to add to the pile of random DOHL TOC contracts.
There are still no hints of a management structure for (S)GBR.

Louise Haigh's severe criticism of Avanti also included their (nationalised) NR partners.
Adopting the correct long-term management structure is going to take a long time, or at least should take a long time. Bringing all the TOCs in house is a quick and easy win, which the government can rightly claim is an election commitment fulfilled (even though I think most of us on here are aware that it will do little to control costs or improve performance - just look at Northern).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Where group CEO Dominic Booth claimed "we're keeping the two (GA/WM) contracts until 2026" he's pretty much terminated the franchise by saying something that Louise Haigh or Peter Hendy never said. Shareholders should have immediately sent him packing for damaging the TUK business.
Given that Dominic Booth owns more than 50% of shares in TUK that would be a little difficult.
 
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Adopting the correct long-term management structure is going to take a long time, or at least should take a long time. Bringing all the TOCs in house is a quick and easy win, which the government can rightly claim is an election commitment fulfilled (even though I think most of us on here are aware that it will do little to control costs or improve performance - just look at Northern).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==


Given that Dominic Booth owns more than 50% of shares in TUK that would be a little difficult.
Transport UK will eventually be just another bus company and only London at that unless they branch into something else or abroad.
 

Goldfish62

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Transport UK will eventually be just another bus company and only London at that unless they branch into something else or abroad.
Indeed. All they're going to be left with is London Bus and Rail Replacement.

A possibility is bidding for upcoming bus franchises. Otherwise, time to sell!
 

HerneHill

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I'm not sure of the wisdom of targeting Transport UK, specifically GA, first on the basis that it's the best performing TOC (and a UK-owned company)
I know there has been a lot of chatter about how poorer performing TOCs should be nationalised first, but in reality “nationalisation” in the near future really just entails taking the management fee to owning groups out of the equation, but fundamentally retaining existing operations 1:1.

Combine that with the fact that many of Avanti’s issues aren’t strictly their own fault to fix (skimped out Pendolino upgrades, NR infrastructure issues… as has been said by others in this forum), my view is that starting with the likes of Avanti may actually run the risk of making nationalisation look bad by biting off more than it can chew!

Conversely, if we start with high-performers such as GA, we can ensure that all their operational best practices, track&train ways of working with NR etc can be baked into the GBR playbook from the outset - which is probably a better use of this early “build” phase of the wider project.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Where group CEO Dominic Booth claimed "we're keeping the two (GA/WM) contracts until 2026" he's pretty much terminated the franchise by saying something that Louise Haigh or Peter Hendy never said. Shareholders should have immediately sent him packing for damaging the TUK business.
I really disliked how Dominic Booth painted a false equivalence in his quote to the FT between owning group management fees (which will be gone after nationalisation) and TOC operating cost net subsidy (which will still need to be paid nationalisation or not, at least until wider operating practices are transformed).
 
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Indeed. All they're going to be left with is London Bus and Rail Replacement.
Recently heard "It'll be Transport Uxbridge & Kensington by Chrimbo". Tis a shame, as, in my opinion, it was the least awful owning group until 18 months ago.
 
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Began to emulate some of the, erm, excellence previously only witnessed at FirstGroup plc.
 

HerneHill

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Began to emulate some of the, erm, excellence previously only witnessed at FirstGroup plc.
No coincidence that 18 months ago was exactly when the management buyout was formally completed, I presume?
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Recently heard "It'll be Transport Uxbridge & Kensington by Chrimbo". Tis a shame, as, in my opinion, it was the least awful owning group until 18 months ago.
Don't forget Transport UK (along with Serco) will be running Merseyrail until 2028.
The 25-year concession started in 2003.
 

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Don't forget Transport UK (along with Serco) will be running Merseyrail until 2028.
I think the shocking mess seen in our Disputes & Prosecutions section, repeated in local and occasionally national media gives more than good enough reason to fire them before any other rail contract gets binned.
 

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I think the shocking mess seen in our Disputes & Prosecutions section, repeated in local and occasionally national media gives more than good enough reason to fire them before any other rail contract gets binned.

I suspect Merseytravel will take them in house at some point, alongside the infrastructure which they are known to want. But it's a lot of work - aiming for the end of the contract may be a good plan.
 
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