Anyone noticed anecdotally another uptick in passenger numbers

[Krokodil]

Only 4% down on 2019. So much for the "new normal"

Just wait, you'll have someone replying in a minute to say that this means that the railway is still short of squillions of passengers and that the car park at their local station is always empty when they drive past (without mentioning that the station in question is Pilning).

 

[43066]

I still disagree with the concept of excluding the Elizabeth line as that takes out the figures of the GWML and GEML passengers that previously used TfL Rail. That's a large number of people included in 2019 and not included in following years. Furthermore, it shows the impact of building a new railway; something that should be proudly shown.

Agreed. Rather shows the political nature of the reporting. If you put those figures back in presumably we’re now above pre Covid in terms of total numbers.

 

[43066]

Just wait, you'll have someone replying in a minute to say that this means that the railway is still short of squillions of passengers and that the car park at their local station is always empty when they drive past (without mentioning that the station in question is Pilning).

And that the railway should be closed in favour of a bus service .

 

[Snow1964]

Only 4% down on 2019. So much for the "new normal"

I happened to be at a presentation recently, and in it was a number of route groups, some had grown over 20% in a year, plenty were bit above the pre-covid figure (and from memory one route group was 13% higher volume than pre covid).

So new normal seems to vary depending on where you live.

(and before anyone asks the route with 20+% annual growth has seen a reducation in average train length leading to people being left behind on occasions. No sign of any extra stock in next few months either), so current rolling stock allocation (nationally) is still old normal in new normal era

 

[Horizon22]

I still disagree with the concept of excluding the Elizabeth line as that takes out the figures of the GWML and GEML passengers that previously used TfL Rail. That's a large number of people included in 2019 and not included in following years. Furthermore, it shows the impact of building a new railway; something that should be proudly shown.

Yes but it is also a) hard to quantify who is brand new and taken from LU modes (although TfL have attempted it) and b) the impact of through-running of the service, c) the statistical anomaly of suddenly shoving on a lot of demand of a type (inner/outer London) that remained steady during Covid / rebounded well post-Covid

 

[43066]

Yes but it is also a) hard to quantify who is brand new and taken from LU modes (although TfL have attempted it) and b) the impact of through-running of the service, c) the statistical anomaly of suddenly shoving on a lot of demand of a type (inner/outer London) that remained steady during Covid / rebounded well post-Covid

That doesn’t really explain why they’ve just done a blanket exclusion of the line, including the legacy parts. Surely they could have factored in passengers in the core assumed to be from the tube (ie “new” passengers) and continued to include the ex GA/GWR inner passengers.

It’s (in my view at least) clearly a political decision to downplay the recovery.

 

[Horizon22]

That doesn’t really explain why they’ve just done a blanket exclusion of the line, including the legacy parts. Surely they could have factored in passengers in the core assumed to be from the tube (ie “new” passengers) and continued to include the ex GA/GWR inner passengers.

It’s (in my view at least) clearly a political decision to downplay the recovery.

At the very least both figures are being provided. I'd imagine statistically it's simply too tricky to exclude one part - it's all or nothing.

If they weren't, then I'd tend to agree.

 

[43066]

At the very least both figures are being provided. I'd imagine statistically it's simply too tricky to exclude one part - it's all or nothing.

It’s just a little difficult to see why that should be the case. As you say the figures are freely available, and TfL have done it, however the figures excluding the EL have tended to be focussed upon.

I agree with @ThameslinkUser on this.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

I like the dft spokesman, ' we're bringing the trains into public ownership ', does that mean that the trains are magically longer if run by the government or something, surely the laws of physics don't change because someone different is running them.

 

[ThameslinkUser]

a) hard to quantify who is brand new and taken from LU modes (although TfL have attempted it)

Thameslink may have stolen some people from the Northern line all those years ago. Why is Elizabeth line omitted and not that? Is it about time? If so, when does the Elizabeth line stop getting treated like that?

 

[Meerkat]

Only 4% down on 2019. So much for the "new normal"

How much down on the 2024 prediction in 2019?

 

[43066]

How much down on the 2024 prediction in 2019?

Why are 2019 predictions relevant in 2024?

 

[Meerkat]

Why are 2019 predictions relevant in 2024?

Because that is what planning and investment would have been based on back then.

 

[Recessio]

Why are 2019 predictions relevant in 2024?

Because it was the last full year not affected by covid and the subsequent rise (and potentially fall) of working from home, so provides a good baseline comparison.

 

[43066]

Because that is what planning and investment would have been based on back then.

And you’re presumably aware of what happened since then, and why those plans are therefore totally irrelevant in 2024?

Because it was the last full year not affected by covid and the subsequent rise (and potentially fall) of working from home, so provides a good baseline comparison.

Does it? In a pre railway job I can remember working from home in 2010. It’s hardly a new thing.

 

[43096]

Does it? In a pre railway job I can remember working from home in 2010. It’s hardly a new thing.

But it is now on a different scale to back then. I was travelling daily into London until Covid, I'm now WFH 4 days per week.

 

[43066]

Thameslink may have stolen some people from the Northern line all those years ago. Why is Elizabeth line omitted and not that? Is it about time? If so, when does the Elizabeth line stop getting treated like that?

Precisely this.

The 2008 financial crisis, the 2000 dot com crash, and world war 2 presumably all had an impact on where passenger numbers *should* be by now, if we go back far enough.

At some point it becomes nonsensical to consider these events, and we simply need to move forward. The focus should be on growing numbers and catering to current demand, not running fewer trains than are needed for 2024 demand, based on notional projections from 2019 not being met.

 

[dk1]

Only 4% down on 2019. So much for the "new normal"

And more businesses returning to 5-day office working can only be a good thing. Tonight’s peak trains I have worked and witnessed out of Liverpool Street and Stratford can only be described as full to heaving. That’s with all that extra new fleet capacity too.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

And more businesses returning to 5-day office working can only be a good thing. Tonight’s peak trains I have worked and witnessed out of Liverpool Street and Stratford can only be described as full to heaving. That’s with all that extra new fleet capacity too.

I actually thought tonight was less busy than the last couple of weeks but thats the 18:30.. it hasn't been as heaving since the timetable change in May with the commuters services either side. I suspect the 17:30 and 18:00 are absolutely packed now though

 

[dk1]

I actually thought tonight was less busy than the last couple of weeks but thats the 18:30.. it hasn't been as heaving since the timetable change in May with the commuters services either side. I suspect the 17:30 and 18:00 are absolutely packed now though

That now picks up at Stratford too. Been several boarding there too when I’ve worked it.

 

[railfan99]

Using Leeds as an example, in 2019 it had 131 trains arriving from 0700 to 0759 on a typical weekday.

There were 31,267 seats available with 27,796 passengers arriving in that hour.

Fast forward to 2023: the comparable figures were 124, 33,104 and 20,343 so the availability of seats relative to passengers has improved.

This doesn't mean that a particular train won't be super crowded: highly likely, but it shows that on some arrivals, there may be plenty of room for additional users.

Have some train sets had extra cars added (assuming platform lengths are sufficient to accommodate them)?

Great to know that if Elizabeth Line is included, there are now more overall patrons than in 2019.

Between mid 2019 and mid 2023, the UK population increased from an estimate of 66,796,807 to 68,682,962, a rise of 2.8 per cent.

 

[yorksrob]

Just wait, you'll have someone replying in a minute to say that this means that the railway is still short of squillions of passengers and that the car park at their local station is always empty when they drive past (without mentioning that the station in question is Pilning).

Indeed

I happened to be at a presentation recently, and in it was a number of route groups, some had grown over 20% in a year, plenty were bit above the pre-covid figure (and from memory one route group was 13% higher volume than pre covid).

So new normal seems to vary depending on where you live.

(and before anyone asks the route with 20+% annual growth has seen a reducation in average train length leading to people being left behind on occasions. No sign of any extra stock in next few months either), so current rolling stock allocation (nationally) is still old normal in new normal era

That sounds correct, given those routes which have had rolling stock replaced without adequate replacement, let alone room for growth (thinking HST's on the Midland main line and 455's on Southern).

I don't suppose you're able to say which one's the 20% rise ?

How much down on the 2024 prediction in 2019?

It wouldn't surprise me if the investment's been cut back accordingly anyway (probably moreso, given the oft quoted revenue gap).

And more businesses returning to 5-day office working can only be a good thing. Tonight’s peak trains I have worked and witnessed out of Liverpool Street and Stratford can only be described as full to heaving. That’s with all that extra new fleet capacity too.

I think I read somewhere as well that those returnees were varying their travel times a lot more, so less peaky flows to accommodate (fewer ridiculous anytime fares paid as well though).

 

[12LDA28C]

I like the dft spokesman, ' we're bringing the trains into public ownership ', does that mean that the trains are magically longer if run by the government or something, surely the laws of physics don't change because someone different is running them.

If that's a direct quote from a DfT spokesman, that's actually complete nonsense. They might be planning to bring the Train Operators into public ownership but the trains themselves will be owned by the ROSCOs as they have been since privatisation.

 

[Snow1964]

I don't suppose you're able to say which one's the 20% rise ?

I don't have any recording, but from memory (so might be incorrect) it was GWR group services to South Coast. Guessing this is Portsmouth-Bristol-Cardiff and Weymouth-Bristol etc.

Services that often see 2 or 3car aging displaced suburban 16x DMUs, and which sometimes leave people behind because trains are crush loaded. GWR having abandoned reservations on these routes might be relevant.

 

[yorksrob]

I don't have any recording, but from memory (so might be incorrect) it was GWR group services to South Coast. Guessing this is Portsmouth-Bristol-Cardiff and Weymouth-Bristol etc.

Services that often see 2 or 3car aging displaced suburban 16x DMUs, and which sometimes leave people behind because trains are crush loaded. GWR having abandoned reservations on these routes might be relevant.

Not an area I frequent very often, however I have seen those trains quite busy at times.

 

[Krokodil]

Not an area I frequent very often, however I have seen those trains quite busy at times.

Remember that this route was the subject of passenger protests in 2007/2008 when First Great Western only had 2-car 158s on the route. Eventually the 158s were reformed as three-car sets but still very busy. I believe that after I moved away from the Bristol area, the three car sets were broken up in favour of 2x2 car 158s, before the 16x were cascaded down with the intention that they'd be formed of 3+2 car lash-ups. Looks like the service is back down to 2 or 3 car sets.

 

[yorksrob]

Remember that this route was the subject of passenger protests in 2007/2008 when First Great Western only had 2-car 158s on the route. Eventually the 158s were reformed as three-car sets but still very busy. I believe that after I moved away from the Bristol area, the three car sets were broken up in favour of 2x2 car 158s, before the 16x were cascaded down with the intention that they'd be formed of 3+2 car lash-ups. Looks like the service is back down to 2 or 3 car sets.

A 4 carriage 158 is a pretty good crowd buster. Any step back from that is going to cause issues.

 

[Meerkat]

And you’re presumably aware of what happened since then, and why those plans are therefore totally irrelevant in 2024?

Not if those plans have been enacted, creating a cost that isn’t being matched by the expected revenue rise.

 

[yorksrob]

Not if those plans have been enacted, creating a cost that isn’t being matched by the expected revenue rise.

They clearly haven't all been enacted, given the amount of rolling stock that's been withdrawn.

One would have expected more to be provided to replace it.

 

[43066]

Not if those plans have been enacted, creating a cost that isn’t being matched by the expected revenue rise.

I’m afraid this comment only reveals your own naivety. You do realise that, unlike your local ice cream van, the railway isn’t run based on bald revenue/profit figures?

Competently run profit making businesses also factor wider economic shocks into their planning, and certainly don’t persist with financial projections from five plus years ago, when the world has radically changed since.