I'm cautious of the fact this is a thread specifically about the £2 fare, so resisting the temptation to join the tap on/tap off or ENCTS debates too deeply to keep on topic.
I'm not sure this stands up to scrutiny, although I'll accept you probably have anecdotal evidence. I suspect for many, the ENCTS bus pass is something you apply for because it's a nice thing to have if you need it. My father has one, and I think he's used it about half a dozen times in two years, usually with me. Why? Because mum doesn't qualify yet, so cumulatively, it's still easier to use the car. Will mum qualifying change much? I doubt it - they are used to the convenience of a car (or walking).
There may have been fares "before" that have now moved to being capped, or cap levels - that was certainly the case with an evening special fare here, that rose from £1.70 to £2. Will there still be an evening fare if the cap goes, or will they just hope we've quietly forgotten about it? I think the reality is there are very few fares now, especially in the south, that could be offered for less than £2. Otherwise, do we start differentiating almost stop by stop, and have people walking to a less-convenient stop to save 20p?
Sorry, I don't agree with "a small rise in line with inflation". I appreciate it may be hard for some, but one of the great benefits of a £2 fare is that is is simple. Raising it to £2.10 or £2.20 isn't. Furthermore, I think it has been said on here by "learned commenters" that the transport industry has generally had much higher than inflation cost increases across the board, whilst also fewer passengers and lower-than-inflation contract uplifts. I think the only logical jumps are 50p at a time.
Here I do agree - there is a notable disconnect between 16-18 (and 18-21) in England versus the great freebie cliff-edge that is ENCTS age*. I'm not sure changing ENCTS qualification is the best option, though. Perhaps if ENCTS was properly and fully funded (magic money tree?) then operators would be allow child fares for all "legal children" of their own accord? Unlike my local operator, who have recently decided to make child fares 85% of the adult fare..
I fear you are quite right in regard to the ratio of repayment for any subsidized fare scheme "basket" versus fare paying passengers, and can you blame the operators? If you were told it would cost you X pounds for an amount of coffee, pizza, pints of beer... whatever you choose) regardless of how much or how little you could actually consume, you probably wouldn't say "I'll just have one", would you?!
*I hasten to add this is unbridled sarcasm...
Again, I don't doubt you for some people, but I suspect an awful lot more people know the price of a loaf of bread or a pint of milk than you think, especially those with low disposable income. I might know the exact price of either, but I know that the yellow supermarket charges me something like 20p more if I pick up 4 pints of "farmer's milk" rather than "regular milk", and I know if they charge me £1.50 for a loaf of bread then the price of wheat has gone up that week.
Did it jump because of the cap, or did it jump because of various other factors since 2022 that have put the price up, and the operator considered £2 was "easier" (if not morally quite right) than, say, £1.80?
Again, a lot comes down to disposable income. On my local route, many more people at the suburban end of the route pay by card or phone app, than do in the "grittier" end of the route nearest town, where incomes are significantly lower.
Hmm... not sure I agree here. Ticket machine data does, of course, give a lot of information, but I think that is more for nuances. How would it already know if you were going A to C via B (where you have to change bus) if you weren't using a day ticket, for example? For subsidized routes, it often comes down to pure passenger numbers versus cost and a headline figure of "per passenger journey".
So essentially returning to a fully staged system, but with multiple caps? I think that's going to be more of a problem than an improvement, especially as distance-based fares tend to only be very vague in the UK. At its extremes, you'd end up with one end of a village paying more than the other, or headlines of "why does that village that's 5.5 miles away pay £2, but we, who are only 4.5 miles away, have to pay £3" headlines in local newspapers.
It's not really a subsidy, though, is it? I described it to a non-enthusiast a few months ago as a supermarket being told everyone can buy what they like, but the supermarket can't charge more than £50, and if they are over 65 then you can't charge them at all. In return, we'll give you a fixed amount of money, called an offer but which is only partly negotiable based on a random selection of things an educated guesswork number of people will buy, and make it out like we're doing you a favour. Her jaw dropped.. and I think she mentally replanned a few "this £2 fare is great" days out...
Do I think the fare cap has been a good thing? Absolutely. I'd be a hypocrite to say anything else based on how often I've used it (as I said in an earlier post, my regular bus fare was £4.10 single - at less than half price travel I can't complain). Do I think the time has come to look at the viability of it, and how we can find a new normal? Also absolutely. I'd rather have a £2.50 bus every 12 minutes that's viable than a bus every 15 minutes because £2 wasn't... likewise, I'm sure users of less frequent routes would rather have hourly at £2.50 than not at all at £2.