I'm cautious of the fact this is a thread specifically about the £2 fare, so resisting the temptation to join the tap on/tap off or ENCTS debates too deeply to keep on topic.
Absolutely not. The free passes for older people are beneficial to all by encouraging older people whose senses are failing to give up driving sooner or drive less. It's not a pure benefit for the individual like e.g. the winter fuel payment, it benefits everyone.
I'm not sure this stands up to scrutiny, although I'll accept you probably have anecdotal evidence. I suspect for many, the ENCTS bus pass is something you apply for because it's a nice thing to have if you need it. My father has one, and I think he's used it about half a dozen times in two years, usually with me. Why? Because mum doesn't qualify yet, so cumulatively, it's still easier to use the car. Will mum qualifying change much? I doubt it - they are used to the convenience of a car (or walking).
Whether by design or accident it seems that in many areas rather than being a cap you have a £2 flat fare. Indeed after being charged £2 for going three stops I asked our local operator if there were any fares under £2 as I was unable to find any on their online fares guide.
There may have been fares "before" that have now moved to being capped, or cap levels - that was certainly the case with an evening special fare here, that rose from £1.70 to £2. Will there still be an evening fare if the cap goes, or will they just hope we've quietly forgotten about it? I think the reality is there are very few fares now, especially in the south, that could be offered for less than £2. Otherwise, do we start differentiating almost stop by stop, and have people walking to a less-convenient stop to save 20p?
There's a big social justice issue here too - it's not just about enticing people out of their cars, but putting on affordable provision for those that can't afford one. Busses were way too expensive before the cap, and anything other than a small rise in line with inflation (so not a 50p jump) would end up hitting the least well off hardest.
Sorry, I don't agree with "a small rise in line with inflation". I appreciate it may be hard for some, but one of the great benefits of a £2 fare is that is is simple. Raising it to £2.10 or £2.20 isn't. Furthermore, I think it has been said on here by "learned commenters" that the transport industry has generally had much higher than inflation cost increases across the board, whilst also fewer passengers and lower-than-inflation contract uplifts. I think the only logical jumps are 50p at a time.
Sorry but it’s an absolute joke that young people aged 16-18 have to pay sometimes full price to travel to compulsory education but that the old can doss about on buses all day free of charge (and many disabled people can get an identical commute to their colleagues free of charge whilst everyone else pays).
If we want to encourage bus use we need to make fares an affordable as possible life long and the best way to do this is to eliminate free travel so that the cost of the operation can be split as many ways as possible.
I also think it’s important to remember that the ratio of freebies to others on many routes have historically led to artifically high fares for those paying in order for the route to break even due to the way that free travel is reimbursed by councils.
Here I do agree - there is a notable disconnect between 16-18 (and 18-21) in England versus the great freebie cliff-edge that is ENCTS age*. I'm not sure changing ENCTS qualification is the best option, though. Perhaps if ENCTS was properly and fully funded (magic money tree?) then operators would be allow child fares for all "legal children" of their own accord? Unlike my local operator, who have recently decided to make child fares 85% of the adult fare..
I fear you are quite right in regard to the ratio of repayment for any subsidized fare scheme "basket" versus fare paying passengers, and can you blame the operators? If you were told it would cost you X pounds for an amount of coffee, pizza, pints of beer... whatever you choose) regardless of how much or how little you could actually consume, you probably wouldn't say "I'll just have one", would you?!
*I hasten to add this is unbridled sarcasm...
Tap in (and out, if necessary) is the way to go - people pay less attention to the actual price then because of the convenience factor. I suspect if you asked most Londoners what the bus and Tube fares were they wouldn't know, just as most people don't know the exact price of a loaf of bread or a pint of milk, just roughly what they spend on food in a week/month or similar.
Again, I don't doubt you for some people, but I suspect an awful lot more people know the price of a loaf of bread or a pint of milk than you think, especially those with low disposable income. I might know the exact price of either, but I know that the yellow supermarket charges me something like 20p more if I pick up 4 pints of "farmer's milk" rather than "regular milk", and I know if they charge me £1.50 for a loaf of bread then the price of wheat has gone up that week.
Must point out that my single journey into town used to cost £1.30 and it jumped to £2 because of the cap! But have a feeling that if the cap was removed, that single journey would now cost far more. And a jump to £2.50 for a few stops doesn't feel right.
Did it jump because of the cap, or did it jump because of various other factors since 2022 that have put the price up, and the operator considered £2 was "easier" (if not morally quite right) than, say, £1.80?
I think there probably is a definite north-south split. On my local route which runs through a mixture of wealthy rural villages and in complete contrast ex mining villages, lots of people are paying the £2 by cash. Nearly all paying by cash have the correct amount and certainly board the bus much quicker than some of those paying using a phone. Even raising the fare to £2.50 might result in lots of people requiring change.
Again, a lot comes down to disposable income. On my local route, many more people at the suburban end of the route pay by card or phone app, than do in the "grittier" end of the route nearest town, where incomes are significantly lower.
You say the company won't get useful ridership data. I'd also suggest Councils don't either. How can you justify bus priority measures, without data. Say the data showed people going from A to B, and people going B to C. What if a significant number were actually going from A to C via B, and there would be modal shift if there was a service A to C. I'd suggest with the current system, even ENCTS, significant flow data is missing, meaning informed strategic decisions can't be made. We see bus companies saying why you should use the bus. But do we hear why people don't? Even people going where buses go.
Hmm... not sure I agree here. Ticket machine data does, of course, give a lot of information, but I think that is more for nuances. How would it already know if you were going A to C via B (where you have to change bus) if you weren't using a day ticket, for example? For subsidized routes, it often comes down to pure passenger numbers versus cost and a headline figure of "per passenger journey".
Honestly id wish the cap was more distance based. Heathrow to Harlow shouldn't be £2. I'd say £1 cap for the first 5 miles then £2 cap for the next 5 miles and so forth. It would work alot better since prices would reflect the distance your travelling.
So essentially returning to a fully staged system, but with multiple caps? I think that's going to be more of a problem than an improvement, especially as distance-based fares tend to only be very vague in the UK. At its extremes, you'd end up with one end of a village paying more than the other, or headlines of "why does that village that's 5.5 miles away pay £2, but we, who are only 4.5 miles away, have to pay £3" headlines in local newspapers.
If the scheme does continue it needs to have some more strings attached for operators, perhaps being contingent on increasing routes or service frequencies. Seeing certain large operating companies taking this subsidy whilst simultaneously cutting services and posting multi-million pound pound profits doesn't sit well with me.
It's not really a subsidy, though, is it? I described it to a non-enthusiast a few months ago as a supermarket being told everyone can buy what they like, but the supermarket can't charge more than £50, and if they are over 65 then you can't charge them at all. In return, we'll give you a fixed amount of money, called an offer but which is only partly negotiable based on a random selection of things an educated guesswork number of people will buy, and make it out like we're doing you a favour. Her jaw dropped.. and I think she mentally replanned a few "this £2 fare is great" days out...
Do I think the fare cap has been a good thing? Absolutely. I'd be a hypocrite to say anything else based on how often I've used it (as I said in an earlier post, my regular bus fare was £4.10 single - at less than half price travel I can't complain). Do I think the time has come to look at the viability of it, and how we can find a new normal? Also absolutely. I'd rather have a £2.50 bus every 12 minutes that's viable than a bus every 15 minutes because £2 wasn't... likewise, I'm sure users of less frequent routes would rather have hourly at £2.50 than not at all at £2.