The benefits of the current HS2 situation

[robspaceman]

HS2 isn't for commuters. Indeed one of its key purposes is to free up capacity on the classic line for more commuter trains.

Surely it’s for commuters between Birmingham and London…

 

[SynthD]

A high speed line made to increase capacity should not have a premium.

This is correct, despite that, it’s common to insist that the high fares are a flaw of the project.

The WCML will be exposed as a loss-making basket case without the premium paying busines passengers to subsidise the rest

There will still be premium passengers, just not the purely London to Birmingham ones. Moving to just slow and semi-fast means there is less need for premium passengers.

Surely it’s for commuters between Birmingham and London…

They don’t exist in any significant number. It’s for passengers.

 

[Northerngirl]

They don’t exist in any significant number. It’s for passengers.

Depends on how expensive a season ticket & rent is, I know people who commute an hour+ into London, I could see quite a market for it

 

[Bletchleyite]

Depends on how expensive a season ticket & rent is, I know people who commute an hour+ into London, I could see quite a market for it

Season tickets (if they even exist) for a 100 mile journey will be crushingly expensive, and Birmingham isn't even that cheap. Commuting from further than Rugby or thereabouts to London (Rugby is fairly cheap) is really a non-starter, unless you're just doing 2 days a week or something.

The present monthly season is nearly £1300. While I get that some people may have another reason to live in Brum and work in London (e.g. family related), it's never likely to be economic to do so on its own when compared to somewhere like Milton Keynes, Northampton, Aylesbury or similar if you want cheaper housing than London itself.

 

[Nottingham59]

Depends on how expensive a season ticket & rent is, I know people who commute an hour+ into London, I could see quite a market for it

The HS2 specification for the trains requires a journey time of 45m30s from Euston to Curzon St, including 2 minute stops at both Old Oak Common and Interchange, to enable a timetabled journey time of 49m.

If you work in West London, Interchange to OOC will be around 35minutes. Curzon St to OOC around 43m. Easily commutable, if you are paid enough.

 

[Foxhunter]

I'm sure there is an episode of The Simpsons where Prime Minister Khan transfers HS2 to TfL.

 

[The Planner]

As I see it, passengers heading to Manchester from Oxford will change at Interchange; passengers from Bristol will walk to Curzon St. There will be much less demand than now for long-distance Cross Country traffic to make the slow plod through Wolverhampton.

Interchange is still going to be a 15 minute change at International once you factor in the entire journey and connections. The requirement north of Wolves doesn't go away.

At the moment, there are limited paths in south Manchester for fast trains to London and Birmingham. There are 2tph Cross Country paths via Stoke, and three Avanti paths (2tph via Stoke and 1tph via Wilmslow). Without intervention, there doesn't seem to be scope to increase this.

With HS2 built to Handsacre, it would be possible to use these 5tph paths from Manchester as follows:

1. HS2 (200m) to London via Wilmslow, calling at Crewe and Interchange
2. HS2 (200m) to London via Stoke, calling at Interchange
3. HS2 (200m) to London via Stoke, then non-stop to give the fastest service.
4. HS2 (200m) to London via Curzon St (reverse)
5. Pendolino (11-car?) to Birmingham New St via Stoke and Wolverhampton.

Overall this give 4tph from Manchester to Birmingham, and 4tph from Manchester to London. This is an significant increase in frequency from current levels, which should keep the mayors happy. The HS2 200m trains could join to make 400m consists at Crewe or Curzon St, but this would add minutes to journey times.

I wouldn't expect 4tph London to Manchester, especially as your Curzon St dogleg wouldn't be used by passengers as the next departure from Euston or Picc would overtake it. How does the above give you 4tph Birmingham to Manchester? Interchange isn't Birmingham as much as International currently isn't.

There would of course be other HS2 trains from London to Liverpool and Preston/Scotland. The total number depends on how many trains can be fitted through the bottleneck at Colwich, and the capacity of Crewe.

I don't expect it to be more than 7 or 8. Crewe isn't the problem, Winsford Weaver is.

And if you want to keep through trains from Bristol and Oxford to the North West, then you can send these to Liverpool or Preston instead; paths through south Manchester will be too precious to waste on 4 or 5 car Voyagers.

Considering this is still 8 years away, why will it be 4 or 5 car Voyagers? Especially if it is decided that one XC path is lost to a Curzon St Piccadilly.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Why shouldn’t it be run in a similar way to HS1 to destinations in Kent. Ordinary walk on fares but with a small supplement for using the high speed route.

I would have thought /hoped that London-Birmingham tickets should be *cheaper* or at least the same price as LMR fares to New Street, as there will be such enormous capacity compared with Intercity/Avanti's current offering from Euston-New Street that they'll need to fill it somehow... But yes perhaps you're right and there will sadly be a high speed premium to pay

HS1 runs with proper high speed trains to Paris/Brussels, but high-density EMUs on domestic services (class 395).
HS2 will only run high speed services (and there are no intermediate stations or branches off it between OOC and Birmingham Interchange (Solihull)).
Since the truncation of the HS2 programme to Phase 1, nobody has volunteered a timetable for the combined HS2/WCML service.
It will be up to the future GBR to decide that, no doubt with DfT guidance on capacity and fares.
HS2 is a replacement for WCML South with a branch to Birmingham, not the other way round.

 

[The Planner]

Since the truncation of the HS2 programme to Phase 1, nobody has volunteered a timetable for the combined HS2/WCML service.
It will be up to the future GBR to decide that, no doubt with DfT guidance on capacity and fares.
HS2 is a replacement for WCML South with a branch to Birmingham, not the other way round.

Its being looked at now, GBR will just carry it on whenever it comes into being.

 

[philosopher]

HS2 isn't for commuters. Indeed one of its key purposes is to free up capacity on the classic line for more commuter trains.

Though I do wonder if HS2 will result Central Birmingham will become a commuter suburb of London.

 

[Fazaar1889]

HS2 isn't for commuters. Indeed one of its key purposes is to free up capacity on the classic line for more commuter trains.

Though I do wonder if HS2 will result Central Birmingham will become a commuter suburb of London.

Unfortunately, it is being pushed that way.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Though I do wonder if HS2 will result Central Birmingham will become a commuter suburb of London.

I doubt it because there's no way it will be cheap enough.

 

[pokemonsuper9]

The way the fares system is going, everyone will know which station to go to as they will have an effectively mandatory advance booking. I would be absolutely astonished if HS2 had any walk up fares at all, possibly not even Anytime ones.

I thought the idea for HS2 was that it would be more metro-like between Birmingham and London due to the high frequency?

 

[edwin_m]

I doubt it because there's no way it will be cheap enough.

The sort of people who might want to commute all the way to London won't live in central Birmingham. They might however live in rural Warwickshire or Leicestershire and drive to Interchange.

My own view is that normal fares should be the same or less on HS2 than on the equivalent classic network journey, but season tickets should be much more expensive, or even not offered, aiming to prevent the intended regional realignment becoming just an expansion of the London commuter belt.

 

[Meerkat]

I doubt it because there's no way it will be cheap enough.

For higher end jobs it will be fairly popular, for those wanting to move home to the Midlands for family reasons, or those who can now be promoted to head office without moving.
And maybe consultancy jobs, being in easy reach of London and Birmingham.

 

[The Ham]

This article makes an interesting point, that if HS2 was leased like HS1, then the extra income from building it between Euston and Crewe vs Old Oak Common and Birmingham would be more than the build costs:

Building HS2 to Euston and Crewe could pay for itself, analysis finds

Extending high-speed line at both ends would let government charge more for rights to run it, rail leaders say

www.theguardian.com

In the analysis by HSRG and the policy group Greengauge 21, the current line from Old Oak Common to Birmingham Curzon Street will cost £47bn, but its limitations mean the railway would have a potential concession value of only £5bn. However, building on to Euston and Crewe, while costing another £11.5bn, could make it worth £20bn.