2024 Conservative Leadership Election

[Gloster]

It is notable that Badenoch, never a shrinking violet when it comes to publicity and criticising the woke, has been very quiet over the last few days. You would have expected her to be doing her usual trick of pouring petrol on the flames in order to prove that she is the person to put the fire out. But then the current disturbances are presumably of no concern to the Shadow Secretary of Sate for Housing, Communities and Local Government.

 

[birchesgreen]

Not heard from any Tories (apart from Jenrick the Moron deciding it was the perfect time to be Islamaphobic). Has Sunak gone to California already?

 

[YorkRailFan]

Has Sunak gone to California already?

Yes, he's been spotted in Beverly Hills.

Rishi Sunak and wife Akshata Murty dined at Funke in Beverly Hills, a restaurant at which a mushroom pizza costs almost £32, as Mr Sunak enjoys his five-week Parliamentary break.

Rishi Sunak and his wife tuck into Michelin star meal as UK in riots turmoil

Rishi Sunak and wife Akshata Murty dined at Funke in Beverly Hills, a restaurant at which a mushroom pizza costs almost £32, as Mr Sunak enjoys his five-week Parliamentary break

www.mirror.co.uk

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I wouldn't be surprised if the membership goes for someone like Jenrick or Bravermann, after all, these are the same people who made Truss leader...

That is afaik because she was a better choice than Sunak because he had stabbed Boris in the back.

 

[317 forever]

Fixed that for you

I went for Priti Patel, because she can play the "I'm loyal to Boris" card which seems to still have quite a lot of play within the Conservative grassroots. If not Patel, probably Jenrick - I can't imagine the same people who voted in Liz Truss voting in a moderate as leader just two years later.

It could well be Robert Jenrick. He is copying Liz Truss's strategy of pandering to the right in an attempt to gain the votes of the membership. I could be wrong but I doubt he has ruffled the feathers of many current Tory MPs.

 

[nw1]

It could well be Robert Jenrick. He is copying Liz Truss's strategy of pandering to the right in an attempt to gain the votes of the membership. I could be wrong but I doubt he has ruffled the feathers of many current Tory MPs.

To me he seems the most right-wing of all of them.

I suspect that the remaining moderate Tory MPs, of which there are a reasonable number, will be put off by him.

 

[Gloster]

One thing that I haven’t seen is an analysis of how right-wing the current Conservative MPs are. I read some months ago that those who were being selected in many of the seats regarded as safe were further to the right than those they replaced, but I don’t know how it actually worked out after the drubbing they suffered. One I remember was Epsom & Ewell where the Conservative candidate taking over from Chris Grayling (53.7% of the vote in 2019) was a poster girl for the Conservative hard-right: Liberal-Democrat gain.

 

[nw1]

One thing that I haven’t seen is an analysis of how right-wing the current Conservative MPs are. I read some months ago that those who were being selected in many of the seats regarded as safe were further to the right than those they replaced, but I don’t know how it actually worked out after the drubbing they suffered. One I remember was Epsom & Ewell where the Conservative candidate taking over from Chris Grayling (53.7% of the vote in 2019) was a poster girl for the Conservative hard-right: Liberal-Democrat gain.

Thinking of the remaining Hampshire Tory MPs they seem to be a fairly mixed bunch:

- one I would consider hard-right;
- one comes across as socially conservative but non extreme;
- one very anti-EU but libertarian on other matters, e.g. gay marriage;
- one rather left-wing within the Tory party, and a critic of Johnson;

and the remainder mostly party loyalists who are neither especially left- nor right-wing within the party, but I can imagine would prefer a relatively moderate candidate.

 

[317 forever]

One thing that I haven’t seen is an analysis of how right-wing the current Conservative MPs are. I read some months ago that those who were being selected in many of the seats regarded as safe were further to the right than those they replaced, but I don’t know how it actually worked out after the drubbing they suffered. One I remember was Epsom & Ewell where the Conservative candidate taking over from Chris Grayling (53.7% of the vote in 2019) was a poster girl for the Conservative hard-right: Liberal-Democrat gain.

As it is, it may have been unwise of Epsom & Ewell to select such a right-wing candidate. The Council area voted Remain, making the local electorate likely to have more put off than average, hence their election of a LibDem MP.

 

[Gloster]

As it is, it may have been unwise of Epsom & Ewell to select such a right-wing candidate. The Council area voted Remain, making the local electorate likely to have more put off than average, hence their election of a LibDem MP.

I thought of mentioning that in 2017 he had 59.6% and even the notional vote in 2019 was only 0.1% different. But if someone as ‘impressive’ as Chris I-know-all-about-ships Grayling could get a vote like that, the seat must have seemed pretty secure. (The old ‘blue rosette on a sack of potatoes’ adage.)

 

[Citybreak1]

If they put the right leader in I believe they can win in 5 years especially with the pension issue and winter fuel payment.

 

[Gloster]

If they put the right leader in I believe they can win in 5 years especially with the pension issue and winter fuel payment.

Ah, but you miss the clever trick here. All the oldies who don’t like these things and would vote Conservative will have either starved or frozen to death by then because of them. (I bet there is a conspiracy theory like this already about.)

More seriously, to have a chance of winning the Conservative Party would need to stop fighting internally, divorce itself from the last ten years or so of incompetence and appeal to the middle-ground. Porcine aviation?

 

[Tezza1978]

If they put the right leader in I believe they can win in 5 years especially with the pension issue and winter fuel payment.

No chance.

I read a statistical analysis was made in the press that 15% of their electorate will have died of old age in 5 years time. A trend that has began from older Gen X'ers/"Xennials" is that people are not becoming more Conservative as they get older. For all sorts of reasons - housing, economic situation, views on immigration being more liberal. Support for Tories from under 50s is at record low levels and it isnt going to recover.

They have a huge demographic challenge and I would be very surprised if they won even a handful of additional seats next time out.

 

[TheGuy77]

Opinions after 50 votes:

 

[nw1]

Ah, but you miss the clever trick here. All the oldies who don’t like these things and would vote Conservative will have either starved or frozen to death by then because of them. (I bet there is a conspiracy theory like this already about.)

More seriously, to have a chance of winning the Conservative Party would need to stop fighting internally, divorce itself from the last ten years or so of incompetence and appeal to the middle-ground. Porcine aviation?

No chance with Badenoch, Patel or Jenrick.

Neither Tugendhat nor Stride will win, I guess.

What about Cleverly though? I voted for him as most likely winner, as he's somewhat right-wing but not excessively so.

Personally he gets on my wick, as I find him rather condescending and snide. What would the UK population as a whole make of him though? Politically he's perhaps about the same as Mordaunt, slightly on the right of the Tory Party but not radically - but without the "statespersonlike" manner of the latter.

Could Cleverly win an election if Labour massively slipped up? I suspect the winter fuel payment will be mostly forgotten in 5 years so I doubt that would do for Labour; and also it affects a fairly small part of the population in any case. But if Labour messed up in a bigger way could that let Cleverly in? I'm not sure.

I don't think he would get in unless Labour mess up to a much bigger extent than so far, though.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

If they put the right leader in I believe they can win in 5 years especially with the pension issue and winter fuel payment.

Not a chance. 10 years just about possible- and yes I know a week is a long time in politics.

I read a statistical analysis was made in the press that 15% of their electorate will have died of old age in 5 years time. A trend that has began from older Gen X'ers/"Xennials" is that people are not becoming more Conservative as they get older. For all sorts of reasons - housing, economic situation, views on immigration being more liberal. Support for Tories from under 50s is at record low levels and it isn't going to recover

Anecdotal only but when I was younger I voted for Conseravtives 4 times 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992.
I voted Labour in 1997 in protest at John Major privatising the railways (I know I am shallow before any of you say it).
I have lived in the USA and so not resident and can't/don't vote anymore. This last time if I was living in the UK, I would NOT have voted Conservative. My mother now almost 90 still did though. So I am definitely NOT growing more conservative as I age. The world is a different place now.

 

[TheGuy77]

Badenoch and Cleverly are on-par now.

 

[Peterthegreat]

Not a chance. 10 years just about possible- and yes I know a week is a long time in politics.


Anecdotal only but when I was younger I voted for Conseravtives 4 times 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992.
I voted Labour in 1997 in protest at John Major nationalising the railways (I know I am shallow before any of you say it).
I have lived in the USA and so not resident and can't/don't vote anymore. This last time if I was living in the UK, I would NOT have voted Conservative. My mother now almost 90 still did though. So I am definitely NOT growing more conservative as I age. The world is a different place now.

And I thought John Major privatised the railways.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

And I thought John Major privatised the railways.

Good catch - that is what I meant! I shall amend.

 

[YorkRailFan]

Jenrick says he would include Bojo in his cabinet:

Tory leadership contest: Robert Jenrick would be 'pleased' to have Boris Johnson in his shadow cabinet

Mr Jenrick said the Tories need their "best people on the pitch" if they want to be an effective Opposition and eventually return to power.

news.sky.com

Robert Jenrick has said he would be "delighted" to include Boris Johnson in his shadow cabinet if he won the Tory leadership contest.

The former immigration minister said the Conservatives need "the best people who are available" and he would be "pleased" to welcome back the former prime minister, should he want to return.

Asked whether he would have Mr Johnson in his top team, Mr Jenrick told The Telegraph: "Yeah. I think what we need are the best people who are available in the Conservative family to be on the pitch, supporting us to be a strong Opposition, holding Keir Starmer to account for all of the failings that we already see, and ultimately winning the next general election.

"And if Boris wanted to be part of that, I'd be delighted."

Sounds like Jenrick wants to appeal to the "Bring Back Boris" part of the Tory Membership who feel nostalgic of the 2019 general election.

 

[Gloster]

By convention a member of the Cabinet, and I think that this includes the shadow one, is a an MP or a member of the Lords; this also includes all the junior ministers who don’t attend the Cabinet. So either Jenrick has got to find a safe seat for Johnson, which is a bit risky at the moment, or make him a lord, which would probably receive widespread criticism: it would also create a rival to Jenrick for public attention and an unpredictable one at that. I suspect that Jenrick knows perfectly well what a bad idea it would be, but, well, this is a political promise.

 

[Peterthegreat]

By convention a member of the Cabinet, and I think that this includes the shadow one, is a an MP or a member of the Lords; this also includes all the junior ministers who don’t attend the Cabinet. So either Jenrick has got to find a safe seat for Johnson, which is a bit risky at the moment, or make him a lord, which would probably receive widespread criticism: it would also create a rival to Jenrick for public attention and an unpredictable one at that. I suspect that Jenrick knows perfectly well what a bad idea it would be, but, well, this is a political promise.

Can the opposition create peers?

 

[jfollows]

Can the opposition create peers?

Yes, but what’s the reason behind your question?

Oh, and recent history has shown that having the Foreign Secretary in the Lords is possible, but Boris is the worst holder of this post in living memory, if not in history. Even George Brown was better than Boris, and GB was permanently pissed, although faithful to his wife.

 

[Crithylum]

I (no joke) was served this ad at the bottom of this thread (yes it was this blurry)

 

[43096]

Sounds like Jenrick wants to appeal to the "Bring Back Boris" part of the Tory Membership who feel nostalgic of the 2019 general election.

He may well do, but that makes Jenrick utterly unelectable in my (and no doubt many others') view. It shows an enormous error of judgement to still be in thrall to the personality cult of Johnson.

 

[Gloster]

Can the opposition create peers?

An interesting point on this. There would be nothing to stop the Conservative leader nominating Johnson for a peerage when they periodically top up the Lords. However, if the House of Lords Appointments Commission were to object, would the Labour government ride roughshod over them and push it through, as happened with Johnson and Lord Cruddas. I should co-co…

 

[Peterthegreat]

An interesting point on this. There would be nothing to stop the Conservative leader nominating Johnson for a peerage when they periodically top up the Lords. However, if the House of Lords Appointments Commission were to object, would the Labour government ride roughshod over them and push it through, as happened with Johnson and Lord Cruddas. I should co-co…

My understanding is that the opposition can nominate candidates for the Lords but the Prime Minister puts the nominations forward.
However by convention as the outgoing Prime Minister (Sunak) can put forward names he could nominate Johnson. Whether Starmer would accept this is a matter fir conjecture.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Jenrick says he would include Bojo in his cabinet:

Tory leadership contest: Robert Jenrick would be 'pleased' to have Boris Johnson in his shadow cabinet

Mr Jenrick said the Tories need their "best people on the pitch" if they want to be an effective Opposition and eventually return to power.

news.sky.com

Sounds like Jenrick wants to appeal to the "Bring Back Boris" part of the Tory Membership who feel nostalgic of the 2019 general election.

Why would Johnson want to go back? Yes, being the saviour of the Tories would appeal to his gargantuan ego, but surely his bigger interest these days is poncing round the world making millions talking bobbins to anyone who’ll pay?

 

[Peterthegreat]

Yes, but what’s the reason behind your question?

Oh, and recent history has shown that having the Foreign Secretary in the Lords is possible, but Boris is the worst holder of this post in living memory, if not in history. Even George Brown was better than Boris, and GB was permanently pissed, although faithful to his wife.

My point stems from whether Johnson would actually get through the process.

 

[Gloster]

My understanding is that the opposition can nominate candidates for the Lords but the Prime Minister puts the nominations forward.
However by convention as the outgoing Prime Minister (Sunak) can put forward names he could nominate Johnson. Whether Starmer would accept this is a matter fir conjecture.

It is quite normal for the Leader of the Opposition to nominate peers at the routine topping-up times and it would be a considerable breach of convention for Starmer not to put Johnson forward if he is nominated in such a situation. However, the Appointments Commision could object to Johnson’s nomination and it would be unusual (although not unknown: see Cruddas above) to push it through against their objection. Sunak has the right to nominate peers when leaving office and I suspect that these are in the system at the moment: it would be interesting to see if he has nominated Johnson and what happens if the Commission says no.